Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies

In this paper we develop and use mapping tools to investigate emerging technological fields by studying the dynamics of expectations, agenda building and early networks. In our approach, expectations describe shared beliefs with regard to prospective entities and positions. Agendas are sets of priorities present to guide the actors in their work. The structure that arises as a result of the actions and interactions of actors is the emerging network. For emerging technologies these processes are susceptible to change and the technological paths that may arise are still easy to influence. We propose that not only looking at expectation dynamics, but also including agenda setting and networks dynamics is essential in order to successfully capture the complexities of the emergence of technological paths. A major challenge for this work lies in unveiling the socio-technical dynamics leading to path emergence. For this purpose we investigate the phenomena of irreversibilities that emerge during the ongoing interactions of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. With these aspects in mind, we will use a broadened view of expectation dynamics in order to arrive at an improved understanding of the building blocks of path emergence. We illustrate our approach with a case study of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications.     

Incumbent organisations shaping emerging technological fields: cases of solar photovoltaic and electric vehicle charging

We explore how large incumbent organisations shape emerging technological fields while establishing a position and business opportunities for themselves during technological shifts. We draw from innovation studies that increasingly emphasise the ability of incumbent organisations to survive technological transformations and studies on emerging technological fields to identify ways in which incumbent organisations shape novel fields during their emergence. Through longitudinal case studies of two emerging fields, we examine how incumbents shape the emerging technological fields of solar energy and electric vehicles. We discuss the interlinked and cumulative business and discursive activities utilized by the incumbents as well as the mechanism through which they influence the legitimacy, expectations and field boundaries of the emerging technological fields. Our study draws attention to the fact that incumbents enter emerging fields at an earlier stage and in more diverse ways than has previously been noted.     

Technological change in niches: Auxiliary Power Units and the hydrogen economy

In studies of large scale systems innovations or technological transitions, niches have been given a prominent role as incubators for the seeds of future technological systems. It is often argued that immature technologies rely on niches for their development, before they are able to compete in mainstream markets. This paper combines insights from economic theory and from technology studies to formulate a framework for understanding the dynamics of technological change in niches, and applies this framework to the case of fuel cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs). We conclude that the choice of technology for APUs will be of critical importance in determining the role this market could have in shaping future developments in hydrogen and fuel cells. However, a number of factors are not strictly dependent on the technology used in fuel cell APUs. These comprise factors influencing external economies of scale, network effects, the behaviour of users and expectations.     

Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy

Science and technology for renewable and sustainable energy are indispensable for our future society and economics. To meet the goal of sustainable energy development, there is a growing body of research efforts world wide. The planner of energy research has to grasp the broader coverage of scientific and technological research, and make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies especially under circumstances of limited resources. In this paper, we track emerging research domains in energy research by using citation network analysis. Our analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. We further investigate the detailed structure of these two domains by clustering publications in these domains. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters. By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a pile of publications efficiently and effectively.     

Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment

This article investigates the interplay of expectation dynamics and innovation processes at the level of organizations and at the innovation system level. We examine how different kinds of organizations contributed and responded to a recent hype and disappointment cycle in the field of stationary fuel cells. Among others, we trace how innovation and discourse activities changed and we explain the observed differences in strategic responses. We show that the sensitivity of organizations to expectation dynamics depends on at least three factors: the strategic embedding of the new technology, the organization's dependence on external legitimacy and its role in the innovation system. Moreover, we show that – in their aggregation – strategic responses affected the level of the technological innovation system as well. Not only did the pace and direction of innovation activities change, but structures such as actor constellations and institutions were also modified. Our study thus provides insights into the interplay of expectation and innovation dynamics, which is important for our understanding of larger transformation processes, e.g. toward more sustainable modes of energy supply.     

Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging biofuel industry

This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stage interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results. First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of ‘forward engineering’, led by Chinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experience of other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences the development of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for other technology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology uncertainty in a transitional society.     

Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies

Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.     

Revitalising serial entrepreneurship in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from a newly emerging economy

In light of the growing national priority to develop and revitalise entrepreneurship in emerging economies, our understanding of barriers to serial entrepreneurship (SE) in such a context warrants further scholarly attention. Using insights from Ghana, an integrated framework of endogenous and exogenous barriers to SE is advanced. The study identified factors such as stigmatisation of business failure, fear of failure, successive governments’ suspicion of the private sector and lack of a clear national policy as barriers to the development of SE. By creating conditions for de-stigmatising of failure, countries would be able to create conditions for more serial entrepreneurs to emerge and flourish. The analysis also indicates that reinvigorating entrepreneurship by providing space and opportunity for failed entrepreneurs to re-emerge would enable such countries to enhance entrepreneurial activities and improve economic development. The implications for technology analysis and strategic entrepreneurship literature are identified and examined.     

Evaluating innovation networks in emerging technologies

Interorganisational innovation networks are increasingly important for innovation in emerging technology fields. The performance of such networks can have a large impact on the future development of emerging technologies. A useful framework for the evaluation of innovation networks however does not yet exist. In this paper, such a framework is developed, using elements of the social network analysis literature and the resource-based view. This framework is subsequently applied to compare two policy-driven innovation networks: 1) the Center for Translational Molecular Medicine; and 2) the BioMedical Materials program. Based on this first empirical exploration of the framework implications for management and further policy development are formulated.     

Towards New Forms of Participatory Technology Development

Technical change is crucial for sustainable development. Yet, it is unclear what kind of technology policy would suit such development. In this article constructive technology assessment (CTA) is offered as a model. CTA proposes broadening design by bringing together all interested parties early on and throughout the design process. CTA activities are not automatically directed at substantive goals such as those incorporated in the notion of sustainable development. The purpose of CTA is to shape technology development processes in such a way that social aspects are symmetrically considered in the process itself. To evaluate and shape CTA processes three criteria are offered: anticipation, reflexivity and social learning. These criteria are applied to three case-studies to illustrate their usefulness.     

From 3G to 4G: technology evolution and path dynamics in China's mobile telecommunication sector

This paper adopts a standard-related lens on technology trajectory to analyse the mobile telecommunication technology choices beyond the third generation (3G) in one of the largest emerging countries. The attempt is made to model and map the technological evolution based on different standard platforms and through competing technologies under the globalised background. The interplay between different stakeholders behind different technological standards in China is examined. Whether and to what extent technological developments have respectively shaped the paths is also explored. We identify the key technological, commercial and institutional dynamics driving such technology evolution, and argue that large emerging countries can pursue their own policy agenda while dealing with the diverse interests of various stakeholders home and abroad. We also indicate that there remain some high uncertainties in terms of future technology trajectories under the emerging contexts.     

A real options reasoning approach to hybrid vehicle investments

Long term increases of petrol prices and the threat of a global climate change have created in the automotive industry a new competitive environment based on the development of more sustainable technologies. Using the real option reasoning lens we provide a theoretical framework to better account for the technological and market uncertainties and irreversibilities that impact the investment and innovation decisions of automotive firms supporting the development of more sustainable vehicle technologies. We investigate the case of hybrid vehicles in a transitional perspective by insisting on their potential to influence the dynamic shaping of investment decisions of firms in the car industry. We consider the hybridization strategy as intra-project and inter-project compound growth options to manage the flexibilities and irreversibilities of investment decisions during the transition process. We provide four different-sometimes conflicting-strategic rationales structuring the investment efforts of firms in hybrid vehicles and illustrate them with numerous examples from the automotive industry.     

Biotechnology and the Potential for a Radical Shift of Technology in Forest Industry

Is biotechnology a revolutionary technology that will dramatically transform present technological systems, industries and society or will the entrance of biotechnology into industry rather take the shape of incremental innovations without any deeper impact on dominating technological paradigms? The vast science and technology research in this area has focused on pharmaceuticals and neglected the potential role for large scale biomass handling activities like the forest industry in general and pulp and paper industry in particular. In addition the industry itself has not focused its R&D activities towards utilization of biotechnology on inputs, processes or products. This is a study on the technological system for pulp and paper facing the challenge of a radical shift of technology. The confrontation between the genuinely science based biotechnology and its community on the one hand, and the pulp and paper community (highly scientific within the framework of a low-technology industry) on the other, is analyzed as are the industrial and economic potentials and limitations of biotechnology in this area.     

Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia

In this paper we investigate the interdependence of the sovereign default risk and banking system fragility in two major emerging markets, China and Russia, using credit default swaps as a proxy for default risk. Both countries’ banking industries have strong ties with their governments and public sector, even after a series of significant reforms in the last two decades. Our analysis is built on the case studies of each country’s two biggest banks. We employ a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) framework to analyse the short- and long-run dynamics of the chosen CDS prices. We use Granger causality to describe the direction of the discovered dynamics. We find evidence of a stable long-run relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads in the chosen time period. The more stable relationship is found in cases where the biggest state-owned universal banks in emerging markets are closely managed by the government. But the fragility of those banks does not directly affect the state of public finances. However, in cases where state-owned banks directly participate in large governmental projects, banking fragility may result in the deterioration of state funds, while raising the risk of sovereign default.     

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies

Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&T). Forecasts of the likely future development of S&T are generated; then research and development (R&D) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast. But for new and emerging S&T this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are not articulated yet. A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence. This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach. The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.

Our paper addresses well-known lacunae of alignment tools from the viewpoints of the path creation/dependency literatures. We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms. We demonstrate a plausible variety of paths, which provides a broader set of strategic choices. This enables management of expectations and hype by which emerging S&T are characterised, and leads to alignment of actors. Our tool can be applied in strategic management of research and R&D at the level of science-to-industry networks. These are becoming an important element in European S&T policy but will only be successful if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain.     

金融结构、技术进步与产业结构升级*——基于跨国数据的经验验证

本文分析了金融结构通过技术进步对产业结构产生的不同作用机理,并通过具有代表性的30个包含发达国家与发展中国家的数据,检验了金融结构对产业结构的影响效果。实证结果表明,在考虑技术转移的情况下,适宜的金融结构可通过技术进步对产业结构升级有较显著的正向作用,而金融发展水平对产业结构升级的影响效果并不显著为正。       

我国战略性新兴产业发展基础与支撑体系构建研究

通过分析战略性新兴产业的基本内涵与特征,认为战略性新兴产业的形成和发展有其内在的产业和技术成长规律,需要具备一定的产业和技术基础和较为完善的支撑体系。在剖析我国战略性新兴产业发展基础及其面临主要问题的基础上,按照钻石理论模型对产业竞争优势的要求,在整合各大要素优势的基础上,从产业体系、政策扶持、服务平台3个层面构建和完善我国战略性新兴产业发展支撑体系,以促进我国战略性新兴产业稳健发展,抢占未来全球产业和技术发展的制高点。     

Understanding the dynamics of technological configurations: A conceptual framework and the case of Smart Homes

This paper explores the innovation dynamics of technological configurations using one particular case study. Technological configurations have been defined in the literature as technical systems with no generic identity, i.e. they are the subset of technical systems for which the pattern of how to arrange the components (architectural knowledge) is defined during implementation. While the implementation of configurations is relatively well understood, knowledge about how configurational technologies evolve as a whole is still underdeveloped. This paper closes this gap and introduces a conceptual framework to understand the dynamics of technological configurations. In particular, the framework introduces the notions of technological field and field learning to add a diachronic and cumulative dimension to the original idea.I apply the framework to the empirical case of Smart Home systems in order to provide a systematic analysis of the underlying innovation dynamics. In particular, I show how the configurational nature of Smart Home systems, and its acknowledgement to various degrees in the corresponding technological field, relates to the emerging innovation dynamics. I conclude with two sets of results. First, I identify a number of conditions on which the future stabilization of the field into cumulative forms of learning depends. Secondly, I draw a range of conclusions with regard to the dynamics of configurational technologies in general.     

Management and Policy Concerns over Shifts in Innovation Trajectories: The Case of the Japanese Robotics Industry

Innovation related network systems would need to be re-aligned and adapted within major technological shifts and their capability to re-align themselves determines the dynamic capabilities of a national innovation system. In this paper, we present a particular phenomenon in industrial evolution, which we call a shift in the 'innovation trajectory', taking the case of the Japanese robotics industry that now undergoes major shifts in many respects. We consider activities directly involved with innovation in the entire value chain from invention to commercialization, and identify the structural changes in the national systems due to the shifts in innovation trajectory. Having utilized the basic framework of 'Techno Economic Network', this paper analyzes six different structural shifts, which are related to product, technology, market, actor, competitive and socio-economic structures. This paper draws attention to the fundamental management and policy level concerns over the emerging shifts at four different decision making hierarchical levels. With concrete empirical evidences and results from interviews, this paper concludes that a new set of approaches is needed to shape these emerging innovation shifts.