Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news,costly arbitrage and equity returns

This paper documents a significantly negative cross-sectional relation between left-tail risk and future returns on individual stocks trading in the US and international countries. We provide a behavioral explanation to this anomaly based on the idea that investors underestimate the persistence in left-tail risk and overprice stocks with large recent losses. Thus, low returns in the left-tail of the distribution persist into the future causing left-tail return momentum. We find that the left-tail risk anomaly is stronger for stocks that are more likely to be held by retail investors, that receive less investor attention, and that are costlier to arbitrage.     

Accruals,Investment, and Future Performance

It is well documented that accounting measures of investment, such as working capital and capital expenditures, negatively predict future stock returns. The earnings fixation hypothesis suggests that investors overestimate and overvalue the persistence of the accrual component of earnings. Another stream of the literature argues that since accruals capture growth, the accruals anomaly can be explained by the investment anomaly, which finds that firms that grow their assets tend to have lower future returns. As empirical proxies for accruals and investment are either positively correlated or interchangeably used, it is difficult to distinguish between the competing hypotheses in empirical tests. This study contributes to the debate by identifying two special economic settings in which the two explanations offer diverging predictions. First, investment in research and development (R&D) represents an investment expenditure that reduces earnings but is not subject to accrual accounting. Thus, the earnings fixation hypothesis predicts a positive relation between increases in R&D investments and future returns, whereas the investment anomaly predicts a negative relation. Second, firms operating with negative working capital have working capital accruals that are negatively correlated with other forms of investment and growth. Therefore, while the earnings fixation hypothesis still predicts a negative relation between accruals and future returns in this setting, the investment explanation predicts a positive relation. For both sets of tests, the empirical evidence supports the earnings fixation hypothesis for the accruals anomaly and is inconsistent with the notion that the investment anomaly subsumes earnings fixation in explaining future stock returns.     

Has momentum lost its momentum?

We evaluate the robustness of momentum returns in the US stock market over the period 1965–2012. We find that momentum profits have become insignificant since the late 1990s. Investigations of momentum profits in high and low volatility months address the concerns about unprecedented levels of market volatility in this period rendering momentum strategy unprofitable. Momentum profits remain insignificant in tests designed to control for seasonality, up or down market conditions, firm size and liquidity. Past returns, can no longer explain the cross-sectional variation in stock returns, even following up markets. Investigation of post holding period returns of momentum portfolios and risk adjusted buy and hold returns of stocks in momentum suggests that investors possibly recognize that momentum strategy is profitable and trade in ways that arbitrage away such profits. These findings are partially consistent with Schwert (Handbook of the economics of finance. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2003) that documents two primary reasons for the disappearance of an anomaly in the behavior of asset prices, first, sample selection bias, and second, uncovering of anomaly by investors who trade in the assets to arbitrage it away. In further analyses we find evidence that suggest two other possible explanations for the declining momentum profits, besides uncovering of the anomaly by investors, that involve decline in the risk premium on a macroeconomic factor, growth rate in industrial production in particular and relative improvement in market efficiency.     

Price Momentum and Idiosyncratic Volatility

We find that returns to momentum investing are higher among high idiosyncratic volatility ( IVol) stocks, especially high IVol losers. Higher IVol stocks also experience quicker and larger reversals. The findings are consistent with momentum profits being attributable to underreaction to firm‐specific information and with IVol limiting arbitrage of the momentum effect. We also find a positive time‐series relation between momentum returns and aggregate IVol. Given the long‐term rise in IVol, this result helps explain the persistence of momentum profits since Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) study.     

欧洲股票市场的规模和动因:基于不同β系数的资本资产定价模型实证研究

我们选用在13个欧洲股市上市的证券,形成规模和动因组合.我们不仅发现规模溢价的证据,还发现8个样本市场存在重大动因收益率.这些收益率可能不构成异常现象,因为它们与不同β值的资本资产定价模型一致.我们还发现,系统风险与经济周期有关.此外,研究结果显示,虽然规模和动因收益率显著,但是难以在中、短期利用它们,因为在我们的样本...     

Size and momentum in European equity markets: empirical findings from varying beta Capital Asset Pricing Model

We use securities listed on 13 European equity markets to form size and momentum portfolios. We find limited evidence of a size premium but significant momentum returns in eight sample markets. We find that these premia may not constitute an anomaly because they are consistent with a varying‐beta Capital Asset Pricing Model. We also show that systematic risk is related to the business cycle. Furthermore, the results suggest that although size and especially momentum returns are significant, it would be difficult to exploit them in the short to medium run, because they are positive and sizeable in very few years in our sample.     

Explaining Size Effect for Indian Stock Market

Using data for BSE 500 companies from October 2003 to January 2015, we confirm the presence of strong size effect in Indian stock market. Controlling for penny stocks, we find that returns decrease almost monotonically with firm size. The findings are robust for alternative size measures, i.e. market capitalization, total assets, net fixed assets, net working capital, net sales and enterprise value. We find the presence of non-synchronous trading bias and reverse seasonality effect. It is observed that market, size, value and business cycle factors explain size effect while liquidity and momentum factors have little role in this process. Thus, rational sources explain the size anomaly in the Indian context.     

High accruals momentum

We examine the information content of high accruals momentum defined as a string of high discretionary accruals for four consecutive years. We find that firms that consistently report high levels of discretionary accruals experience low subsequent returns. The results are robust after we control for annual levels of discretionary accruals for the estimation period of high accruals momentum. Furthermore, the predictive power of the high accruals momentum for future returns is strongly persistent even after the existing accruals anomaly disappears. Our results also show that the high accruals momentum impact is more pronounced for low growth firms, suggesting that the overpricing of stocks with high accruals momentum is driven by managerial discretion to manage earnings.     

Is momentum trading profitable from Shari'ah compliant stocks?

This research offers fresh evidence supporting the pervasiveness of the momentum effect. Two decades after the momentum profitability firstly documented by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), yet little research has been specifically devised for the momentum profitability on Shari'ah compliant stocks. We assess the momentum profitability over the Shari'ah compliant stocks in a Malaysian setting. We find evidence of strong return persistence as far as toward four-year holding period. Interestingly, no significant momentum returns are found among the conventional stocks. Upon further exploration we find neither an industry-driven momentum effect nor the small size firms can account for the momentum returns. Using return persistency formation criteria, we further find that underreaction seems to well fit in explaining this unique long lasting momentum profitability.     

New ESG rating drivers in the cross-section of European stock returns

We assess the performance of two quantitative signals based on ESG scores across a large, multi-national cross-section of European stock returns. We test whether the cost of equity capital is more influenced by the upward momentum (measured over time) of the ESG scores of the firms issuing stocks or by their stability (identified as the volatility of the scores over time), measured around a changing mean level. We find that short-term ESG momentum over 1 month has a significant impact on the cross-section of stock returns, lowering the anticipated cost of capital and leading to positive average abnormal returns. This suggests that short-term ESG momentum may represent a novel, priced systematic risk factor. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that an ESG volatility spread strategy which buys low ESG score volatility stocks and sells high volatility ones, generates a substantial alpha and affects the ex-ante cost of capital. Both quantitative ESG signals result in portfolio sorting and long-short strategies that enhance the overall sustainability profile of the issuing firms without compromising the raw average of their ESG scores.     

Stock price synchronicity,cognitive biases,and momentum

The momentum anomaly is widely attributed to investor cognitive biases, but the trigger of cognitive biases is largely unexplored. In this study, inspired by psychology studies linking cognitive biases to the noisiness of information, we examine whether momentum returns are associated with high stock price synchronicity, a manifestation of noisy firm-specific information. Our results demonstrate that momentum is more pronounced in the presence of high stock price synchronicity. This finding is robust to other explanations and firm characteristics. We also find that stock price synchronicity boosts the profitability of momentum by amplifying investor underreaction to new information.     

Accruals and the performance of stock returns following external financing activities

This paper investigates the relation of the external financing anomaly with the accrual anomaly, by focusing separately on working capital accruals and long-term accruals. We find that external financing and accrual hedge portfolios not only generate superior returns, but they also constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Portfolio-level analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regressions show that the ability of external financing measures in predicting future returns remains strong, after controlling for working capital accruals. However, this ability is substantially reduced after controlling for long-term accruals. Our results appear to be consistent with investors’ failure to recognise agency-related overinvestment and/or opportunistic earnings management.     

Misspecification of capital asset pricing: Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values

This study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient. In particular, portfolios based on firm size or earnings/price (E/P) ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the CAPM. Furthermore, the ‘abnormal’ returns persist for at least two years. This persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency. Rather, the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified. However, the data also reveals that an E/P effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect; the firm size effect largely subsumes the E/P effect. Thus, while the E/P anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately, the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors, and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than E/P ratios.     

Stock performance and the mispricing of accruals

I investigate the relationship between contemporaneous stock-price performance and the persistence of accrued earnings, and its impact on the accrual anomaly. I find that, in a fiscal year, accrued earnings for stocks that have performed poorly are less persistent in predicting future earnings than accrued earnings for stocks that have performed moderately. I further find that a hedge-strategy based on accruals earns greater abnormal returns following bad-news years. The results are consistent with conservative accounting causing accrued earnings to be even less persistent in bad-news years and investors failing to efficiently price this differential in persistence.     

Time series momentum

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers.     

On interpreting security returns during the ex-dividend period

In this paper we examine the ex-dividend day returns of several taxable and non-taxable distributions. The ex-dividend day returns for the taxable common stocks are consistent with the hypothesis that dividends are taxed more heavily than capital gains. However, the ex-dividend day returns of preferred stocks suggest that preferred dividends are taxed at a lower rate than capital gains; non-taxable stock dividends and splits are priced on ex-dividend days as if they are fully taxable; and non-taxable cash distributions are priced as if investors receive a tax rebate with them. We also find that each of these distributions exhibits abnormal return behavior for several days surrounding the ex-dividend day. We investigate several possible explanations for this anomaly, but none is capable of explaining the phenomenon.     

Cash, investments and asset returns

We use an investment-based asset pricing model to examine the effect of firms’ investments relative to cash holdings on stock returns, assuming holding cash lowers transaction costs. We find that mimicking portfolios based on investments relative to non-cash capital and based on investments relative to cash capital are priced for various testing portfolios. On average, momentum stocks and growth stocks are more sensitive to the factor constructed using investment relative to cash.     

Anomalies and financial distress

This paper explores commonalities across asset pricing anomalies. In particular, we assess implications of financial distress for the profitability of anomaly-based trading strategies. Strategies based on price momentum, earnings momentum, credit risk, dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and capital investments derive their profitability from taking short positions in high credit risk firms that experience deteriorating credit conditions. In contrast, the value-based strategy derives most of its profitability from taking long positions in high credit risk firms that survive financial distress and subsequently realize high returns. The accruals anomaly is an exception. It is robust among high and low credit risk firms in all credit conditions.     

A new perspective on performance persistence: evidence using portfolio holdings

We investigate the existence and sources of performance persistence for Australian equity funds, using monthly portfolio holdings data. We find significant persistence among outperforming rather than underperforming funds, which is primarily related to security selection skill, and is associated with growth‐orientated funds. Meanwhile, the relation between persistence and momentum is secondary and nuanced. Further, persistence largely derives from existing holdings, while subsequent active trading contributes only moderately positive returns for both outperforming and underperforming funds. We also find that persistence fades beyond 6 months and vanishes after 24 months. Our findings differ from those for U.S. equity funds and previous Australian studies, implying that persistence may vary with market context and its identification may depend on data availability.     

The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings

Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component. We decompose the cash component into: (1) the change in the cash balance, (2) issuances/distributions to debt, and (3) issuances/distributions to equity. We find that the higher persistence of the cash component is entirely due to the subcomponent related to equity. The other subcomponents have persistence levels almost identical to accruals. We investigate whether investors understand the implications of the differential persistence of the three subcomponents. Our results suggest that investors correctly price debt and equity issuances/distributions but misprice the change in the cash balance in a similar manner to accruals. Our tests enable us to empirically distinguish the “accrual” and “external financing” anomalies with results implying that the accrual anomaly subsumes the external financing anomaly. Our results also suggest that naive fixation on earnings is unlikely to be a complete explanation for the accrual anomaly. Our findings are more consistent with investors misunderstanding diminishing returns to new investments.