Recovery Process Model for Two Companies

The quantification of the recovery rate for the debt of the defaulted small company is one of the most important problems for banks and their supervisors. However, the data of the real recovery rates is seldom available for academic study. Therefore, there have been a few studies for the recovery rate for the debt. The recovery process model for a single company is introduced by Itoh (Asia Pac Financ Mark 2008). In this paper, we extend the model of Itoh (Asia Pac Financ Mark 2008) to two defaulted companies, and we model the recovery processes using an inhomogeneous bivariate compound Poisson process with the delays. In other word, we assume that the recoveries are occurred by the shocks, and that there are individual shocks that affect only one company and common shocks that affect two companies. Moreover, we assume that there are delays between the shock points and the recovery points. Therefore, the recovery points of two companies are correlated, but the recoveries do not occur synchronously almost surely. We derive the correlation of the recovery rates of the debts of two defaulted companies, and the expected value and the standard deviation of the recovery rate for the defaulted debt portfolio. Furthermore, we present two methods based on the Vernic recursion formula and the Monte Calro simulation for calculating the probability distribution function of the recovery process, and illustrate several numerical results.     

Company name fluency and acquisition target analysis

This paper investigates the impact of company name fluency on acquisitions. We hypothesize that a company's name fluency, used by potential acquirers as a mental shortcut, influences not only its visibility to investors but also the level of interest from potential acquirers, increasing the company's acquisition probability. After correcting for endogeneity, company name fluency is positively associated with both the probability of being an acquisition target and an acquisition premium. Reasons for a higher acquisition premium for targets with higher name fluency are identified as reduced need to hire top-tier investment banks and higher synergy.     

Recovery Process Model

Recently, because of Basel II and the subprime mortgage crisis, the quantification of the recovery size and the recovery rate for the debt of a defaulted company is a serious problem for financial institutions and their supervisors, but there has been no study of structure of the recovery process which is the relationship between time and the cumulative recovery size. Existent recovery models do not regard the recovery progress before the time of achievement of recovery. We directly model recovery process for the debt of a single defaulted company. We model the recovery process by a homogeneous compound Poisson process and extend our model to an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The interest rate is explicitly used in our model. By our model, the relationship between the cumulative recovery, the increment of recovery, the initial debt amount, the last recovery possible time and the interest rate can be analyzed. We derive the expected value and the variance of the survival value of the debt and the recovery rate, and also derive the probability distribution function and the expected value of the recovery completion time. Moreover we present the numerical methods for calculating the expected value and the variance based on Panjer recursion formula and the fast Fourier transformation, and show numerical results. Also we propose a new method of calculating the transition density of an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process. Our method is based on approximating an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process by a piecewise homogeneous compound Poisson process. This method is used to compute the expected value and the variance of an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process.     

论金融控股公司的反垄断法律问题

与我国目前大多从经济学的角度对金融控股公司进行探讨的方法不同,试图从反垄断法的角度对其加以分析,指出设立金融控股公司是我国金融体制改革的必然选择,但应该重视其涉及的反垄断问题。     

金融控股公司客户信息问题研究

随着国内金融控股公司基于交叉销售的综合金融战略的实施,客户信息保护和在现有法律限制范围内的客户信息共享与交叉利用之间的协调变得越来越重要。作者把金融控股公司客户信息分为经客户授权的、未经客户授权的、合作伙伴提供的和公司外购的4类,并分别分析了这些信息在交叉使用时需防范的风险。在此基础上,提出了客户信息使用的6大原则:互惠互利、数据安全、无利益冲突、利益合理分配、保障客户体验和合法合规;3大保护策略:加快客户信息授权工作、建立多渠道客户信息取得途径、依法建立客户隐私政策和制度;此外,还给出了推进交叉销售的建议实施步骤。     

核心高管货币性薪酬与公司业绩相关性实证研究

本文考察了核心高管货币性薪酬与公司业绩之间的关系,克服了以往文献只对整个高管层进行整体分析而没有注意到核心高管才是决定公司经营政策、财务政策的中坚力量缺陷;考虑到"58岁现象"可能造成对报酬与业绩的影响,在研究设计时加入了年龄控制变量;研究结果表明,核心高管的货币性薪酬与公司的业绩相关性不强,而与核心高管持股比例表现出稳定的正相关,公司规模在2008、2009年均通过检验,但在房地产行业爆炸式膨胀的2010年,对总经理的回归时却没有通过检验;同时,核心高管年龄特征也表现出了与公司规模同样的检验结果。研究结论建议委托人应改变核心高管薪酬结构,加大现金激励力度,抑制非现金收益,适度提高核心高管持股比例。     

A new mixture cure model under competing risks to score online consumer loans

In credit scoring, survival analysis models have been widely applied to answer the question as to whether and when an applicant would default. In this paper, we propose a novel mixture cure proportional hazards model under competing risks. Most existing mixture cure models either do not consider competing risks or generally assume that a subpopulation of subjects is immune to any risk from all the competing risks. Compared with existing models, the proposed model is more flexible since it assumes that a subpopulation of subjects is immune to a subset of risks instead of being immune to all the risks. To estimate model parameters, we derive the likelihood function of the proposed model, based on which an expectation maximization estimation algorithm is developed. A simulation algorithm is designed to simulate time-to-event observations from the proposed model, and simulation studies are conducted to verify the proposed methodology. A real world example of credit scoring for online customer loans based on the proposed model is demonstrated.     

Network dynamics in business angel group investment decisions

Investors within a Business Angel (BA) group are embedded in a cohesive network of relationships that arises from past joint investments. In this paper, we have studied how the network position of a BA within this network affects the likelihood that a company will receive investments from the BA group. We have hypothesized a curvilinear, inverse U-shaped relationship between the centrality of the BA and the probability of a company being funded by the BA group. Moreover, we have explored how the experience of a BA and the geographical proximity between the BA and the company influence such a relationship.     

我国金融控股公司信息披露法律制度的建立和健全——以金融风险防范为视角

在全球金融危机的背景下,美国的次贷危机凸现了金融控股公司在抵御金融危机中的作用.但金融控股公司的特殊性和复杂性也导致了对其风险防范的艰巨性.而信息披露制度的建立和健全是风险防范的前提和基础,因此,非常有必要立足我国目前金融监管实际,借鉴国际金融监管经验,建立和健全我国金融控股公司信息披露法律制度.     

A stochastic differential game for optimal investment of an insurer with regime switching

We introduce a model to discuss an optimal investment problem of an insurance company using a game theoretic approach. The model is general enough to include economic risk, financial risk, insurance risk, and model risk. The insurance company invests its surplus in a bond and a stock index. The interest rate of the bond is stochastic and depends on the state of an economy described by a continuous-time, finite-state, Markov chain. The stock index dynamics are governed by a Markov, regime-switching, geometric Brownian motion modulated by the chain. The company receives premiums and pays aggregate claims. Here the aggregate insurance claims process is modeled by either a Markov, regime-switching, random measure or a Markov, regime-switching, diffusion process modulated by the chain. We adopt a robust approach to model risk, or uncertainty, and generate a family of probability measures using a general approach for a measure change to incorporate model risk. In particular, we adopt a Girsanov transform for the regime-switching Markov chain to incorporate model risk in modeling economic risk by the Markov chain. The goal of the insurance company is to select an optimal investment strategy so as to maximize either the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth or the survival probability of the company in the ‘worst-case’ scenario. We formulate the optimal investment problems as two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential games between the insurance company and the market. Verification theorems for the HJB solutions to the optimal investment problems are provided and explicit solutions for optimal strategies are obtained in some particular cases.     

Extending the Basel II approach to estimate capital requirements for equity investments

Under the Basel II banking regulatory capital regime the capital requirements for credit exposures are calculated using the Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) approach. The capital requirement is taken to be the contribution of an exposure to the unexpected loss on the bank’s diversified portfolio. Here we extend this approach to calculate capital requirements for equity investments. We show that in the case when asset values have a normal distribution an analytical formula for the unexpected loss contribution may be developed. We show that the capital requirements for equity investments are quite different to those of credit exposures, since equity investments can suffer substantial loss of value even when the underlying company has not defaulted.     

Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy

Despite a surge in the research efforts put into modeling credit and default risk during the past decade, few studies have incorporated the impact that macroeconomic conditions have on business defaults. In this paper, we estimate a duration model to explain the survival time to default for borrowers in the business loan portfolio of a major Swedish bank over the period 1994–2000. The model takes both firm-specific characteristics, such as accounting ratios and payment behaviour, loan-related information, and the prevailing macroeconomic conditions into account. The output gap, the yield curve and consumers’ expectations of future economic development have significant explanatory power for the default risk of firms. We also compare our model with a frequently used model of firm default risk that conditions only on firm-specific information. The comparison shows that while the latter model can make a reasonably accurate ranking of firms’ according to default risk, our model, by taking macro conditions into account, is also able to account for the absolute level of risk.     

公司为股东担保的法律效力及商业银行的对策建议

现行银行贷款担保中相当比例是公司为股东担保,其法律效力如何直接关系到银行贷款的安全.我国现行的法律规定并未绝对禁止公司为股东的债务提供担保.允许公司为其股东的债务提供担保既是现实经济生活之需要,亦有利于公司自身的发展,对促进债权实现和维护交易安全均具有积极作用,符合现代立法趋势.商业银行有条件地接受公司为股东提供的融资担保,有利于在防范风险的前提下拓展自己的业务领域.本文提出应修改<公司法>第60条第3款和相关法律法规,建立和完善股东表决权排除制度、董事回避制度、股东诉讼制度和担保信息披露制度,以构建和完善我国公司为股东担保制度.     

股权结构、公司规模与公司绩效——基于公司成长性的差异化分析

本文将2007年642家上市公司分为股权集中组、股权制衡组和股权分散组,对三组样本进行描述性分析和差异性检验,发现股权集中类公司的经营绩效优于股权分散类公司,股权制衡类公司的经营绩效也优于股权分散类公司．而股权集中类公司与股权制衡类公司的经营绩效没有显著的差别。为了考察股权集中度、股权制衡及公司规模对成长类公司绩效的影响,本文构建三个MMR模型。结果显示,成长类公司可以通过提高股权集中程度和控制公司规模来提高公司经营业绩;成长类公司的经营业绩优于非成长类公司;较高的股权集中度是成长类公司经营绩效较好的原因：通过控制公司规模,成长性公司可以获得更好的经营绩效。同时发现股权集中度与公司经营绩效不存在二次非线性关系．公司规模与公司经营绩效存在倒U型二次关系。     

分析师跟踪和新上市公司股价表现研究

基于2006年至2008年6月之间新上市公司数据,考量分析师跟踪和新上市公司股价表现,结果表明,分析师对公司的跟踪越多,说明分析师看好该公司,对某公司进行跟踪的分析师数量传递了分析师对公司价值未来的预期。利用 Fama-Frcnch 三因素模型的截距项表征新上市公司超额收益,发现超额分析师跟踪越多的公司其新股超额收益越大。     

Who acquires whom among stand-alone commercial banks and bank holding company affiliates?

This paper presents the difference in the likelihood of being targets or acquirers among stand-alone banks, single-bank holding company (SBHC) affiliates and multi-bank holding company (MBHC) affiliates. Using a sample of U.S. commercial bank data from 1997 to 2012, we find that MBHC affiliates exhibit a greater likelihood of being targets than do stand-alone commercial banks, while stand-alone banks have a greater probability of becoming targets than do SBHC affiliates. Our findings show that MBHC affiliates tend to have a greater likelihood of being acquirers than do SBHC affiliates, which again have a greater probability of being acquirers than do stand-alone banks. Those banks that acquire another bank within the same MBHC structure tend to be smaller and more financially constrained than those banks acquiring outside the same MBHC structure, whereas targets that are acquired by another bank within the same MBHC structure tend to be smaller, higher profitability and capital than targets that are acquired by banks from outside the MBHC structure. Our results suggest that the MBHC parent attempts to discipline distressed, poorly performing and smaller affiliates by involving them in mergers and acquisitions.     

The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms

We analyse a sample of 6 million firm-year observations of large corporations and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) spanning 6 European countries from 2005 to 2015, to determine the impact of leverage and different sources of funding on default risk. We find that financial leverage has a greater impact on the probability of default of SMEs than of large corporations. The difference in default probability between the top and bottom leverage quartiles is 1.24% for large firms and 2.87% for SMEs. This difference may be explained by the greater exposure of SMEs to short-term debt and their consequently higher refinancing risk. Indeed, we find that SMEs that recover from the state of insolvency may have similar leverage to defaulted SMEs; however their liability structure is significantly altered towards long-term debt and away from short-term debt. Our findings have important implications not only for bank regulators and policy-makers but also for credit risk modelling.     

Feasible fraud and auditing probabilities for insurance companies and policyholders

Insurance claims fraud is counted among the major concerns in the insurance industry, the reason being that excess payments due to fraudulent claims account for a large percentage of the total payments each year. We formulate optimization problems from the insurance company as well as the policyholder perspective based on a costly state verification approach. In this setting??while the policyholder observes his losses privately??the insurance company can decide to verify the truthfulness of incoming claims at some cost. We show simulation results illustrating the agreement range which is characterized by all valid fraud and auditing probability combinations both stakeholders are willing to accept. Furthermore, we present the impact of different valid probability combinations on the insurance company??s and the policyholder??s objective quantities and analyze the sensitivity of the agreement range with respect to a relevant input parameter. This contribution summarizes the major findings of a working paper written by Müller et?al. (Working Papers on Risk Management and Insurance (IVW-HSG), No. 92, 2011).     

Wimp or tough guy: Sequential default risk and signaling with mortgages

When analyzing what to do with a currently defaulted loan, the lender must consider the impact of his foreclosure versus workout decision on the expected payoff of subsequent loans as well as on the payoff of the current loan. This is because borrowers with future loan payoff dates can observe the lender's actions and update prior information regarding the lender's toughness or wimpiness when dealing with defaulted loans. In this paper we consider the strategic interaction between a lender and multiple borrowers, where borrowers have distinct, sequentially maturing mortgage loans and where the lender has private information regarding the magnitude of his foreclosure costs. We find that a variety of strategic outcomes can occur that explain the co-existence of workout and foreclosure in the mortgage marketplace. In general, the lender's workout/foreclosure response depends on the cost of bluffing (e.g., foreclosing when workout is cheaper) versus the value of reducing expected defaults and workout concession losses on future loans (e.g., imperfect foreclosure cost information leads future borrowers to payoff the mortgage when default would have been optimal under perfect information). Given recently revised expectations regarding the depth of the real estate recession, our results may explain the move by many lenders away from granting workout concessions and toward taking a harder line when dealing with defaulting borrowers.     

Can Vehicle Maintenance Records Predict Automobile Accidents?

This article proposes that vehicle maintenance records can provide useful information for predicting the probability that an owner will have an automobile accident. To test the hypothesis, we use a unique data set that is merged from an insurance company and a vehicle manufacturer in Taiwan. We find weak evidence to support our hypothesis. Among all the proxies for proper maintenance, we indicate that proper maintenance defined by the recommended kilometers is significantly negatively correlated with the loss probability in compulsory automobile liability insurance. The average loss probability decreases by 0.23 percent when the insured vehicle is properly maintained according to the recommended number of kilometers in the previous years, whereas the average loss probability for the overall sample is 0.49 percent. We further find that proper maintenance is insignificantly correlated with loss severity.