Current and future noise impacts of the UK hub airport

Noise is a negative byproduct of aviation operations, the effects of which can have a significant impact on human health and welfare. In this study, we model the present day noise impacts from two London airports: Heathrow and Gatwick. We monetize perceivable and attributable impacts using a willingness to pay for abatement from hedonic pricing studies, and we monetize other health impacts by combining the value of life years lost from mortalities and a cost of illness approach. We find that noise generated by operations at these two airports impacts 255,800 people, contributing to 54 myocardial infarctions and 17 premature mortalities each year. We find annual total damages of £80.3 million and £0.87 million attributable to Heathrow and Gatwick respectively. Further, we calculate expected noise impacts in 2030. Due to capacity constraints and technology improvements, noise impacts are expected to decrease to £76.5 million per annum if neither airport undergoes expansion. However, if Heathrow expands through runway extension or construction of an additional runway, total damages increase £92.5 million or £104.6 million respectively. Expanding Gatwick with a second independent runway results in total annual damages of £78.8 million.     

铁路客运高峰定价模型研究

由于需求的波动性,铁路客运存在高低峰运输的差别。在高峰期,铁路不仅要投入额外的运输设备,而且车站、线路等要承受巨大的负荷。对铁路客运高峰负荷定价是一个值得关注的问题。通过以边际成本定价理论为依据,对铁路客运高峰负荷定价问题进行分析,初步计算了我国铁路客运高峰运价综合水平。     

Minimum delay or maximum efficiency? Rising productivity of available capacity at airports: Review of current practice and future needs

Around the world airports are facing capacity constraints more and more everyday, generally the runway capacities are restricted by governments and airports are unable to accept additional aircrafts. Technological improvements can decrease the necessity of policy limitations in terms of noise and air pollution. Rapidly increasing numbers of traffic developed severe scarce capacity, congestion and delay problems and the capacity that is available, needs to be allocated as efficiently as possible. Airport capacity can be allocated in different ways; administrative capacity management with slot allocation and traffic distribution rules; market-based capacity management with slot auctioning, secondary trading and peak pricing; a combination of both mechanisms; and no regulation mechanism as applied in the USA with the exceptions of busiest airports. The review contains the analysis of current state of practice and the review of relevant research on capacity and slot allocation modelling with policy and demand management perspectives. It targets identification of existing problems, inefficiencies, gaps and requirements in current practice of slot allocation mechanisms, defining options for change in policies to allocate slots more efficiently, transparent and fair by investigating market-based mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing research for improvements to the slot allocation process that can be rationally implemented in practice in order to improve efficiency, fairness and transparency. For that purpose, based on these slot allocation approaches, we provide a critical review of status-quo, literature and current research with demand and congestion management perspectives by considering overall social welfare, airline and airport surplus, passenger welfare and explore hypothetical, computational and practical challenges that have arisen from cross-disciplinary methodologies.     

Runway capacity management – An empirical study with application to Doha International Airport

This paper examines a three-faceted approach for runway capacity management, based on the runway configuration, a chosen scheduling approach, and an aircraft separation standard. These factors prompt alternative runway settings that are encapsulated using a classical mixed-integer formulation. The optimal solution for each runway setting is compared against our proposed optimization-based heuristic. This integrated approach is applied to investigating the transition from the (Old) Doha International Airport to the New Doha International Airport. Our empirical study based on historical data reveals that the proposed heuristic consistently yields optimal or near-optimal schedules, with considerable savings in fuel cost and reductions in delays, while preserving the spirit of an FCFS sequencing policy.     

Differential pricing strategies of air freight transport carriers in the spot market

The single pricing approach fails to reflect different demand changes in response to its cargo space prices at different sales periods. This might be an obstacle to maximize the cargo space revenue of air freight carriers. This paper conducts the empirical analysis on pricing strategies in the spot market for two competitive air freight transport carriers operating on the same segment. It concludes that two carriers gain more revenues with the optimized differential pricing approach than with the single pricing approach. In theory, the research enriches the current literature in terms of pricing strategy optimization under the competition of two parties. In practice, it provides references for air freight transport carriers in their decision-making of applying the differential pricing strategy.     

Analysing and modelling some effects of solutions for matching the airport runway system capacity to demand

The paper deals with analysing and modelling some effects of three solutions for matching the airport runway system (landing) capacity to corresponding demand. These are: i) charging congestion applied to the NY LaGuardia airport (New York, USA); ii) deployment of the innovative operational procedures supported by the new technologies developing in the scope of European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) program applied to the system of two closely-spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)); and iii) building the new additional runway(s) applied to the runway system of three London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted (London, UK).The results have shown that each of the considered solutions can contribute to more efficient and effective matching of the airport runway (landing) capacity to the current and expected (prospectively growing) airside demand under given (specified) conditions.     

铁路货运价格策略研究

运价是客户选择运输方式的重要因素。铁路货物运价存在着运价政策、运价管理机制与市场脱节等问题。应用铁路货运价格理论,借鉴美国铁路运价策略,提出我国铁路货运价格应实施以国家统一运价为基础,运输企业根据市场供求关系,掌握一定的运价浮动权,并实行多种形式的运输价格等策略。     

How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe?

In this paper, we analyse the gap between present transport prices and efficient transport prices. Efficient transport prices are those prices that maximise economic welfare, including external costs (congestion, air pollution, accidents). The methodology is applied to six urban and interregional case studies using one common optimal pricing model. The case studies cover passenger as well as freight transport and cover all modes. We find that prices need to be raised most for peak urban passenger car transport and to a lesser extent for interregional road transport. Optimal pricing results for public transport are more mixed. We show that current external costs on congested roads are a bad guide for optimal taxes and tolls: the optimal toll that takes into account the reaction of demand is often less than one third of the present marginal external cost.     

Transport accounts—methodological concepts and empirical results

Although economic theory suggests social marginal cost pricing as the optimal pricing principle for transport infrastructure charging, information on the total (or average) social costs of transport and on the revenues from taxes and charges are important for pricing policy, for example for monitoring purposes and for the design of second-best prices. This paper provides empirical evidence on the total social costs and revenues for road, rail and air transport, covering all EU countries and Switzerland. It discusses methodologies to estimate the social costs of transport for all modes, focussing on practical experience with applying advanced methodological approaches both in the light of data quality and availability, and regarding the feasibility of conducting this type of research on a routine basis for transport policy.     

Scheduling aircraft take-offs and landings on interdependent and heterogeneous runways

This paper presents an optimization method for the aircraft scheduling problem with general runway configurations. Take-offs and landings have to be assigned to a runway and a time while meeting the sequence-dependent separation requirements and minimizing the costs incurred by delays. Some runways can be used only for take-offs, landings, or certain types of aircraft while schedules for interdependent runways have to consider additional diagonal separation constraints.Our dynamic programming approach solves realistic problem instances to optimality within short computation times. In addition, we propose a rolling planning horizon heuristic for large instances that returns close-to-optimal results.     

Runway safety at airports: A systematic approach for implementing ultra-safe options

Enhancing airport runway safety is a difficult problem because runway accidents are rare events. Nonetheless, investments are being directed at improving safety for US airport ground traffic control systems. This paper shows that under these circumstances it is difficult to assess and measure the added safety offered by new replacement systems. We develop a framework for introducing and sequencing system improvements to provide greater assurances in enhancing safety. This framework shows how a new method can first be introduced as a secondary system, to test and verify its efficacy prior to its adoption as a primary system.     

诱发客流影响下高速铁路及航空运输客票动态定价研究

在阐述博弈论理论基础上,结合票价变动所产生的旅客流量的变化,选择斯坦科尔伯格模型对高速铁路与航空定价过程进行描述,借助双层规划建模的思想,建立了诱发客流影响下高速铁路与航空运输多层规划动态定价模型,并采用基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法通过实际算例对所构建模型进行计算。结合高速铁路与航空动态定价过程的分析,得出诱发客流影响下高速铁路与航空运输趋于均衡的客票定价区间。最后对高速铁路与航空竞争定价的博弈过程中双方客流量及利润的变化进行分析。     

The difference between hub and non-hub airports – An airside capacity perspective

Airport airside capacity is limited by the runway system capacity or apron capacity, whichever is more constraining. Sometimes, taxiway system can also impose constraint to airside capacity, but in the case of fully developed taxiway systems (involving parallel taxiway, high speed exits, etc.) that is usually not an issue. To determine which airside element is more constraining it is not always as simple as comparing runway system and apron capacities directly one to another. It is important to understand and take into consideration their relationship. Runway-apron relationship depends on demand characteristics e.g. dominant market segments (e.g. scheduled, charter, low-cost, general aviation, cargo), and/or specific traffic patterns (hubbing or point-to-point services, seasonality in demand, etc.).The paper brings up the issue of available airside capacity under different traffic characteristics, faced by hubs vs. non-hub airports, and the necessity to understand runway-apron interdependency in order to properly identify the bottleneck on the airside. Referring to earlier findings related to apron capacity analysis, the paper summarizes various factors that affect apron capacity at non-hub and hub airports and uses them to define the runway-apron relationship, as well as its role in the process of analyzing airside capacity under various demand characteristics.The main finding is that functional relationship between the runway system and aprons is much stronger in the case of hub airports, and should be carefully considered when analyzing airside capacity. Besides runway capacity, few other variables that affect apron capacity at hub airports are discussed. Generic examples are used to support the discussion.     

The normalisation of aircraft overrun accident data

This paper is concerned with normalising runway overrun aircraft accident data so as to allow all accident data to be properly relevant to any overrun accident investigation. This task is part of a wider research task that addresses the need for models to assess the risk of aircraft operations at any particular airport based on risk management principles and to use all available data on previous accidents. The case of runway overruns is taken because new regulations require consideration of the provision of much longer Runway End Safety Areas than had been previously the norm. The reported research collects accident data and then describes its normalisation based on corrections made due to the effects of terrain, aircraft performance and required distances on the accident locations.     

Air traffic forecast and its impact on runway capacity. A System Dynamics approach

The uninterrupted growth of air traffic in Colombia has been reinforced since the 1990s by a public policy of liberalization of airspace, and by redirecting public and private investment towards the modernization and updating of airport infrastructures, giving in concession the busiest airports in the country, 19 to date. In the commercial air sector, and in this same period, the flag airline was privatized and new air operators, including low cost airlines (LCC), entered the market. Since 2012, air fares are completely deregulated. Consequently, in the last two and a half decades, passenger transport in Colombia grew by 863%. This important growth rate has been driven and led by the country's main airport, the Bogotá-El Dorado International Airport (BOG), in the capital of Colombia. But some technical reports consider the airport will reach its maximum capacity in the short term mainly because of its inability to expand its airfield (runway system). Due to this circumstance, the aeronautical public authority of Colombia gave course to the planning, design and construction of a new airport (complementary) on the outskirts of the city of Bogotá, which will enter the design phase in 2026/2027. Therefore, it is considered suitable the development of a traffic forecast for BOG in the medium term and to evaluate the impact of future demand on the runway capacity of the airport. Then, and due to the complexity of the air transport forecast, the use of System Dynamics (SD), is considered to be appropriate as an analysis approach. System Dynamics is based on feedback control theory and it is equipped with mathematical computer simulation models, which uses linear and non-linear differential equations. The results suggests a need to expand the airport case study (runway system) after mid-2019, where the current capacity utilization factor is around 100% and two to three runways will be required for the normal operation; after October 2022 the number runways required is set to three until the last period simulated (2023).     

Analysis of the potential demand for battery electric vehicle sharing: Mode share and spatiotemporal distribution

Carsharing is considered one of the solutions to urban transport problems. As a new mode in the urban transport system in China, there are still initial questions of how carsharing will perform and what the impacts will be. Accordingly, this study considers battery electric vehicle sharing and investigates its potential demand, with Beijing as the case study. A nested logit model is established and calibrated to analyze mode choice behavior. Further, real trip data is used to estimate the potential demand for battery electric vehicle sharing. In addition, the temporal and spatial distribution of potential demand, the impact of battery electric vehicle sharing on the mode split, and the impact of pricing strategies are analyzed. The results show that an optimistic mode split of battery electric vehicle sharing is 4.23% when the average distance between travelers and stations is 0.5 km. The main source of potential demand is public transport. However, the substitution effect of battery electric vehicle sharing for private vehicles is weak. The potential trips are concentrated in the morning peak period, mainly starting in residential or integrative areas, and ending in commercial areas or green spaces. Commuting and long-distance trips are more sensitive to decreases in price, such that they are more likely to be completed as battery electric vehicle sharing trips. This price decrease could also increase the potential trip ratio during the evening peak period. These findings are useful to governments and operators for implementing policies such as station planning, relocation, and pricing strategies.     

Discrete choice models of traveler participation in differential time of day pricing programs

Tolls that vary based on time of day or congestion are gaining attention around the world as a potential travel demand management strategy that can shift peak period travel to off peak periods thereby contributing to peak period congestion relief. However, despite the widespread interest in the concept, there is very little empirical data available on the impacts of variable tolls on traveler choices and disaggregate models that can be used to predict traveler response to variable pricing are few. This paper reports on results from two bridges with differential time of day tolls in the Lee County area of Florida in the United States. Using travel survey data collected at these two bridges, discrete choice models of traveler response to the variable toll rates are estimated. The models indicate that travelers who are retired, have a low income, have flextime at their place of employment, or have a flexible travel schedule are more likely to alter their time of travel with greater frequency due to the variable toll.     

Statistical modelling of runway incursion occurences in the United States

Runway incursions are an important aviation safety concern; between 2002 and 2015 there were 16,785 runway incursions at United States airports ranging in size from small general aviation (GA) to large commercial airline hubs. When examining airports with the 50 highest incursion count over the past 5 years, the predominant categories were large hubs, which accounted for 21 airports and general aviation (GA) airports which accounted for 16 airports. In June 2015, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the Runway Incursion Mitigation (RIM) program to identify airport risk factors that might contribute to a runway incursion and develop strategies to help airport stakeholders mitigate those risks. Different size airports serve different aircraft fleets, serve different operating volumes, and have different resources available (both funds and technologies) for incursion mitigation. Therefore, it is valuable to determine the correlating factors that affect incursions at different size airports. This paper uses econometrics based modelling techniques to identify statistically significant factors in data provided by the (FAA) public web sites on runway incursions. The model identified statistically significant variables that correlate with incursions, based on severity, for airports categories defined by the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS).The model results indicate that operational incidents (OI) are more likely at large hub airports. In contrast, at GA/non-hub airports, pilot deviations (PD) were significant for less severe incursions (severity C and D). Only one variable, “number of years since 2002”, was found to be significant for all the three airport categories; this variable was correlated with severity A incursions and indicated a statistically significant reduction in severity A incursions, despite an overall 80% increase in incursions between 2002 and 2015.     

New York City’s congestion pricing experience and implications for road pricing acceptance in the United States

Public acceptance is widely recognized as a major barrier to widespread adoption of road pricing in the United States and internationally. Using New York City as a case study, this paper analyzes how Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s 2007 congestion pricing proposal gained widespread public support but was ultimately blocked in the State Legislature. The paper assesses the implications of New York’s experience for pursuing congestion pricing and mileage-based taxes in the United States. A central conclusion from this analysis is that gaining approval of pricing will require changing how motorists view the effect of pricing on them personally. Given the power of even small groups of auto users to block pricing through the political process, pricing proposals need to be perceived as benefiting drivers individually and not simply society at large. The paper discusses approaches to road pricing in light of New York City’s experience.     

Advance purchase behaviors of air passengers: A continuous logit model

Modeling the advance purchase behaviors of air passengers is essential when airlines develop revenue management strategies. Therefore, this study empirically investigates advance purchase behaviors based on the air ticket transaction data by using a continuous logit model. The estimation results show that advance purchase behaviors are significantly affected by price, price uncertainty, time of day (morning, afternoon and evening flight), days of week (flight on Friday), months of year (peak or off-peak seasons), and consecutive holiday. Accordingly, different pricing strategies should be used for different flights to maximize revenue.