Overlapping portfolios,contagion, and financial stability

We study the problem of interacting channels of contagion in financial networks. The first channel of contagion is counterparty failure risk; this is captured empirically using data for the Austrian interbank network. The second channel of contagion is overlapping portfolio exposures; this is studied using a stylized model. We perform stress tests according to different protocols. For the parameters we study neither channel of contagion results in large effects on its own. In contrast, when both channels are active at once, bankruptcies are much more common and have large systemic effects.     

How supervisors set the tone for long hours: Vicarious learning,subordinates' self-motives and the contagion of working hours

This paper develops a theoretical model that highlights the mechanisms underlying the contagion of long working hours from supervisors to subordinates at different stages of their relationship. Drawing upon social learning theory, we suggest that subordinates mimic the supervisor's working hours through vicarious learning. Focusing first on the role-taking stage of the supervisor-subordinate relationship, we identify four factors, namely supervisor's perceived status, subordinate's work centrality, congruence between organizational norms and supervisor's working hours, and subordinate's identification with the supervisor, that may influence the perceived desirability of adopting the supervisor's working hours. We then examine the relative influence of each of these factors through the lens of subordinates' self-motives. Turning, next, to the routinized supervisor-subordinate relationship, we elaborate on how social contagion may evolve over time. Lastly, the implications of our model as well as future research avenues are presented.     

Accounting contagion: The case of Enron

The Enron scandal offers the opportunity to assess the degree to which misleading accounting can affect connected firms and industry rivals. While the market was inept at detecting the inaccuracy of Enron’s financial statements, it swiftly punished many connected firms once Enron's faulty accounting was publicized. A cross-sectional analysis documents that the market punished connected firms that had greater exposure to Enron’s business, whose financial statements were viewed as more complex, and that had greater financial leverage. Most of the negative news indicating concern with Enron’s accounting corresponded with a significant decline in the stock prices of firms in the energy and natural gas (ENG) industry, regardless of an explicit connection to Enron. Furthermore, rival firms with direct exposure to Enron and more aggressive earnings-reporting methods also experienced more detrimental effects.     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty

Community development corporations seek to stabilize neighborhoods affected by the recent foreclosure crisis through acquisition and redevelopment of distressed properties. One rationale for this work is the alleviation or avoidance of negative foreclosure impacts. We estimate the lost value to proximate properties associated with a single foreclosure through a Markov chain representing probabilistic transitions between foreclosure stages. We apply our model to a case study of foreclosure properties in Chelsea, MA. A rank ordering by estimated property value impacts indicates significant potential gains in social value as compared to current community development practice. We extend our basic model to address the effects of clusters of foreclosed units upon the value of proximate properties. This study provides additional support for the use of decision modeling in foreclosed housing acquisition and redevelopment.     

The use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting: An empirical test

Nearly 500 annual sales forecasts were generated from the responses of 82 subjects who were presented with either a time-series plot of historical sales data by itself or with the same plus three scenarios, and were then asked to make forecasts. Sales forecasts were made in either a stable or an unstable environment. The findings did not support the claims made by scenario advocates. Scenarios did not make unexpected outcomes less surprising. Instead, scenarios were found to increase confidence in a favored forecast. Furthermore, no support was found for the contention that scenarios improved upon ‘eyeball’ extrapolations or made judgmental sales forecasts more accurate than quantitative extrapolations. Scenarios were found to be tainted by many of the same biases previously identified by cognitive psychologists.     

Spatial Aspects of Contagion among Emerging Economies

Abstract

A spatial model is used to specify and then test for the existence of contagion among emerging market economies. We consider both trade and regional channels of contagion. Our results suggest that contagion is a statistically significant factor in foreign exchange markets and, furthermore, its effects are not uniform across the countries considered. Our results also suggest that trade links are significant channels of contagion transmission; on the other hand, geographic distances do not appear to be significant channels of contagion transmission. We also report results which indicate the extent of contagion. These results relate to effects which emanate from one country to another.

Aspects spatiaux de la contagion parmi les économies émergentes

Résumé?Nous faisons usage d'un modèle spatial pour spécifier, puis tester, l'existence d'une contagion parmi les économies des marchés émergents. Nous nous penchons sur les vecteurs commercial et régional de cette contagion. Nos résultats indiquent d'une part que la contagion est un facteur significatif sur le plan statistique dans les marchés à commerce extérieur, d'autre part que ses effets ne sont pas uniformes dans les pays examinés. Nos résultats nous permettent d'affirmer également que les relations commerciales sont des vecteurs significatifs de transmission de la contagion; par contre, les distances géographiques ne semblent pas être des vecteurs significatifs de transmission de la contagion. Nous présentons également des résultats qui soulignent l’étendue de la contagion: ces résultats portent sur les effets émanant d'un pays à un autre.

Aspectos espaciales del contagio entre economias emergentes

Résumén?Se utiliza un modelo espacial para especificar, y luego se comprueba la existencia de contagio entre las economías de mercados emergentes. Consideramos canales de contagio, tanto comerciales como regionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el contagio es un factor estadísticamente significativo en los mercados de divisas, así como que sus efectos no son uniformes a través de los países considerados. Nuestros resultados también sugieren que los lazos comerciales son canales significativos para la transmisión de contagio; por otra parte, las distancias geográficas no parecen ser canales significativos de transmisión de contagio. También incluimos resultados que indican la extensión del contagio. Dichos resultados se relacionan con efectos que emanan de un país a otro.

     

Too much of a good thing: The impact of product variety on operations and sales performance

We examine the impact of product variety decisions on an operational measure – unit fill rate – and on sales performance. Results are estimated using weekly data over three years from 108 distribution centers of a major soft drink bottler. Our results show that fill rates are negatively associated with product variety at a diminishing rate. In addition, we examine the total effect of product variety on sales including both the direct effect and the indirect effect through operations performance. The total impact of product variety on sales initially is positive, although at a diminishing rate. However, beyond a certain level, increased product variety actually results in lower sales; that is, “too much of a good thing”. Thus, the findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of product variety on operations and sales performance.     

The Changing Nature of Currency Crises

Abstract.  Currency crises that have been observed in recent years are not a new phenomenon, but the main features of the crises in Latin America in the 1970s and early 1980s are quite different from the crisis in Europe in 1992. Theoretical literature has evolved over time to account for the changing nature of these crises. While many theoretical and empirical papers have been written about various episodes of these crises, the change in their mechanism over time has not been demonstrated well. This paper fills the gap in the literature by graphically depicting the main features of these crises. Such a visual analysis should allow the reader to better understand and follow the changes in the mechanisms over time.     

金融全球化过程中银行危机的传染性及我国的应对策略

随着经济全球化的深化,随着我国整个金融体系开放程度的加深,任何来自国际金融市场的危机都可能对我国商业银行体系造成灾难性冲击,本文从分析银行危机跨国传染的路径着手,提出了我国防范国际金融危机传染的对策和建议,以期为我国银行体系的改革提供新的思路。     

提高证券公司营业网点产品销售能力的思考

本文从证券公司零售业务战略规划中重要一环——提升网点销售能力展开分析,针对证券公司同质化服务、产品结构单一、销售能力偏弱等现状,通过运用制度激励、技术更新、员工转型、产品匹配和完善评价等综合手段,提升证券经营网点销售能力,实现证券公司差异化服务,增强行业整体竞争能力具有现实意义.     

价值导向的汽车区域市场管理研究

在分析中国汽车市场竞争模式改变的基础上,进行了汽车区域市场现状研究。进一步通过探讨 顾客价值的重要意义,研究了汽车区域市场的价值管理,建立了相关的价值模型,分析了顾客、经销商和销售 代表价值。在此基础上,探讨了确保区域市场价值实现的汽车区域市场价值观的统一、基于价值的流程管理 以及绩效考核与持续改进。     

基于非线性规划的企业销售利润优化模型

针对企业销售利润最优化问题,分析了相关概念和相互之间的关系,以企业销售利润为目标函数,建立了非线性规划模型,说明了约束条件的构成,最后以实例对提出的模型进行了详细说明,有助于企业销售管理决策,具有一定的应用价值。     

Considerations of a retail forecasting practitioner

Forecasts can be used in an extraordinarily diverse range of ways across many domains in which forecasting practitioners work continuously towards improving their forecasts. Each of these domains may require the analysis of different kinds of inputs and special considerations. Even within a given domain, such as retail, there may be many similar use cases of the same kind of forecast, which can lead to practitioners making different decisions. This paper discusses several of the important decision points that practitioners must work through and uses item-level sales forecasting in the retail domain as leveraged by pricing and inventory management as examples of the different paths that may be taken. It considers how each use can lead to a different forecasting objective, and a corresponding focus on different error metrics. In addition, there are several tradeoffs in the forecasting methods that are used to meet each of the objectives best, including the kinds of models used, the running time speed, and forecast accuracy requirements.     

协作型企业供应链管理

供应链管理作为一种新型的企业关系管理模式在现代市场竞争中为企业生存与发展提供了一种工具。本文针对协作型企业供应链管理进行了研究。协作型企业供应链由于其业务联系上的紧密性与其他供应链有所不同，在生产计划制定上强调生产计划的一致性与协调性，核心企业与供应企业在生产计划制定方面的信息共享；在销售管理上强调企业与销售商集成式管理。     

The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI

Over the course of the recent house price bubble in the United States, the price of homes rose rapidly from 1999 Q4 to 2005 Q4 (11.3% annually as measured by the Case-Shiller index, and 8.4% annually as measured by the Federal Housing Financing Agency) but slowly as measured by owner equivalent rents (3.4%), so measured core inflation remained relatively docile during this period, since only rents are used to measure inflation for housing services in the United States. Over the last several decades, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has experimented with both rental equivalence and user cost approaches for accounting for owner occupied housing (OOH) services in the CPI. We explain the basics of these approaches, and outline the BLS experiences with using them. This assessment leads us to conclude that the time has come to try a new approach: the opportunity cost approach. We argue this approach has advantages over both the conventional rental equivalence and user cost approaches, though it embeds components of the measures for both those approaches and builds solidly on the research of Verbrugge and others at the BLS. Also, we take up empirical issues that must be faced regardless of which of the approaches discussed is adopted. We explain how the repeat-sales and various hedonic regression methods can be placed in a common framework, thereby facilitating understanding of the properties of and the tradeoffs between the methods. We also consider measurement complications that arise because the land and structure components of properties depreciate at different rates.     

Cross-functional alignment in supply chain planning: A case study of sales and operations planning

In most organizations, supply chain planning is a cross-functional effort. However, functional areas such as sales, marketing, finance, and operations traditionally specialize in portions of the planning activities, which results in conflicts over expectations, preferences, and priorities. We report findings from a detailed case analysis of a supply chain planning process that seemingly weathers these cross-functional conflicts. In contrast to traditional research on this area, which focuses on incentives, responsibilities, and structures, we adopt a process perspective and find that integration was achieved despite formal functional incentives that did not support it. By drawing a distinction between the incentive landscape and the planning process, we identify process as a mediator that can affect organizational outcomes. Thus, organizations may be capable of integration while functions retain different incentives and orientations to maintain focus on their stakeholders’ needs. Through iterative coding, we identify the attributes of the planning process that can drive planning performance—information, procedural, and alignment quality—but also find evidence that achieving alignment in the execution of plans can be more important than informational and procedural quality. In addition to process attributes, we also identify social elements that influenced the performance of the planning process and place the information processing attributes within a broader social and organizational context.     

基于上海D公司订单流程的管理研究

业务流程管理(Business Process Management,BPM)是企业管理的基石。基于上海D公司的实际运作情况,梳理出该公司关于订单处理的业务流程。并根据公司全球化过程中业务情况发生的变化,设计出新的业务流程,并通过活动-组织流程图法找出其不足之处进行优化。最后,在文中提出了第三方销售(TPS)的新概念。     

The Obama effect

Many observers argued that Barack Obama’s candidacy in the U.S. presidential election of 2008 benefited from the financial crisis and recessionary economic conditions which voters blamed on the Republican administration. However, an empirical examination of stock price and public opinion data indicates that improvements in Obama’s electoral prospects led stock price declines and that gains by Obama were more likely to be followed by falling stock prices than by rising prices. This evidence suggests that the poor performance of the stock market in the days leading up to Obama’s victory was partly caused by, rather than causing, Obama’s success.