Deconstructing distressed-property spillovers: The effects of vacant,tax-delinquent,and foreclosed properties in housing submarkets

In this empirical analysis, we estimate the impacts of property-tax delinquency, vacancy, and foreclosures on the value of neighboring homes. We demonstrate that these externalities differ in high- and low-poverty submarkets. Numerous studies have estimated the externality of foreclosures. These papers theorize that the foreclosure impact works partially through creating vacant and neglected homes. To our knowledge, this is only the second attempt to estimate the impact of vacancy itself and the first to use tax-delinquency as a measure of property neglect. We link vacancy observations from Postal Service data with property-tax delinquency and sales data from Cuyahoga County, Ohio. We find that an additional property within 500 ft that is vacant or delinquent reduces a home’s selling price by 1 to 2%. In low-poverty submarkets, the negative impact of a home that is both vacant and delinquent is ?4.6%. Low-poverty submarkets penalize a sale near a tax-current recent foreclosure by 4 to 8%. In high-poverty submarkets, we observe positive correlations of sale prices with vacant foreclosures. This may reflect lenders selectively foreclosing only on relatively well-maintained properties.     

Modelling contagion of financial crises

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during “Black Monday” of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market’s fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.     

Overlapping portfolios,contagion, and financial stability

We study the problem of interacting channels of contagion in financial networks. The first channel of contagion is counterparty failure risk; this is captured empirically using data for the Austrian interbank network. The second channel of contagion is overlapping portfolio exposures; this is studied using a stylized model. We perform stress tests according to different protocols. For the parameters we study neither channel of contagion results in large effects on its own. In contrast, when both channels are active at once, bankruptcies are much more common and have large systemic effects.     

The contagion effects of volatility indices across the U.S. and Europe

This research adopts an autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model by utilizing intraday data of overlapping trading hours to analyze the global contagion effects of sentimental responses and volatility dynamics through the volatility indices of the U.S. and three major European countries. The results show strong evidence of contagion effects among the volatility indices. For regional effects, compared to the other two European indices (VFTSE and VCAC), the volatility index of Germany (VDAX) generates greater impacts on the other indices, and we also observe bi-directional causalities among these three countries. The findings support the meteor shower hypothesis among the sample countries. Additionally, jump innovations in Germany affect investor sentiments with the fastest convergence speed. Finally, the jump convergence speed in the UK is slower, and the impacts of unexpected news could also last longer for UK investors.     

Partial information about contagion risk,self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.     

Network VAR models to measure financial contagion

Financial contagion among countries can arise from different channels, the most important of which are financial markets and bank lending. The paper aims to build an econometric network approach to understand the extent to which contagion spillovers (from one country to another) aris from financial markets, from bank lending, or from both. To achieve this aim we consider a model specification strategy which combines Vector Autoregressive models with network models. The paper contributes to the contagion literature with a model that can consider bank exposures and financial market prices, jointly and not only separately. From an empirical viewpoint, our results show that both bilateral exposures and market prices act as contagion channels in the transmission of shocks arising from a country to other countries.     

Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China

Based on data from 111 Chinese banks over the 2013–2016 period, this paper estimates the interbank bilateral lending matrix using the maximum entropy method. The estimated matrix is used to simulate the effects of credit and liquidity shocks on China’s banking network. Simulation results show that, under the extreme pressure scenario, the contagion arising from a liquidity shock is significantly stronger than the effect of a credit shock, indicating the importance of liquidity in the banking system. The contagion effect arising from a credit shock does not vary much over the sample period. However, the contagion effect arising from a liquidity shock decreases significantly, which could be attributed to contraction in interbank business due to stricter interbank business supervision. The simulation results also identify the most important and most vulnerable nodes of the banking system. An increase in the level of capital level can enhance the ability of banks to withstand credit and liquidity shocks. Our analysis also suggests that risk contagion faced by China’s banks varies across banking network structures.     

How supervisors set the tone for long hours: Vicarious learning,subordinates' self-motives and the contagion of working hours

This paper develops a theoretical model that highlights the mechanisms underlying the contagion of long working hours from supervisors to subordinates at different stages of their relationship. Drawing upon social learning theory, we suggest that subordinates mimic the supervisor's working hours through vicarious learning. Focusing first on the role-taking stage of the supervisor-subordinate relationship, we identify four factors, namely supervisor's perceived status, subordinate's work centrality, congruence between organizational norms and supervisor's working hours, and subordinate's identification with the supervisor, that may influence the perceived desirability of adopting the supervisor's working hours. We then examine the relative influence of each of these factors through the lens of subordinates' self-motives. Turning, next, to the routinized supervisor-subordinate relationship, we elaborate on how social contagion may evolve over time. Lastly, the implications of our model as well as future research avenues are presented.     

Accounting contagion: The case of Enron

The Enron scandal offers the opportunity to assess the degree to which misleading accounting can affect connected firms and industry rivals. While the market was inept at detecting the inaccuracy of Enron’s financial statements, it swiftly punished many connected firms once Enron's faulty accounting was publicized. A cross-sectional analysis documents that the market punished connected firms that had greater exposure to Enron’s business, whose financial statements were viewed as more complex, and that had greater financial leverage. Most of the negative news indicating concern with Enron’s accounting corresponded with a significant decline in the stock prices of firms in the energy and natural gas (ENG) industry, regardless of an explicit connection to Enron. Furthermore, rival firms with direct exposure to Enron and more aggressive earnings-reporting methods also experienced more detrimental effects.     

The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic

This paper tests the market jump contagion hypothesis in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first use a nonparametric approach to identify jumps by decomposing the realized volatility into continuous and jump components, and we use the threshold autoregressive model to describe the jump interdependency structure between different markets. We empirically investigate the contagion effect across several major Asian equity markets (Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan) using the 5-minute high frequency data. Some key findings emerge: jump behaviors occur frequently and make an important contribution to the total realized volatility; jump dynamics exhibit significant nonlinearity, asymmetry, and the feature of structural breaks, which can be effectively captured by the threshold autoregressive model; jump contagion effects are obviously detected and this effect varies depending on the regime.     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty

Community development corporations seek to stabilize neighborhoods affected by the recent foreclosure crisis through acquisition and redevelopment of distressed properties. One rationale for this work is the alleviation or avoidance of negative foreclosure impacts. We estimate the lost value to proximate properties associated with a single foreclosure through a Markov chain representing probabilistic transitions between foreclosure stages. We apply our model to a case study of foreclosure properties in Chelsea, MA. A rank ordering by estimated property value impacts indicates significant potential gains in social value as compared to current community development practice. We extend our basic model to address the effects of clusters of foreclosed units upon the value of proximate properties. This study provides additional support for the use of decision modeling in foreclosed housing acquisition and redevelopment.     

The economic impact of lockdowns: A theoretical assessment

The sudden appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered extreme and open-ended “lockdowns” to manage the disease. Should these drastic interventions be the blueprint for future epidemics? We construct an analytical framework, based on the theory of random matching, which makes explicit how epidemics spread through economic activity. Imposing lockdowns by assumption not only prevents contagion and reduces healthcare costs, but also disrupts income-generation processes. We characterize how lockdowns impact the contagion process and social welfare. Numerical analysis suggests that protracted, open-ended lockdowns are generally suboptimal, bringing into question the policy responses seen in many countries.     

The default contagion of contingent convertible bonds in financial network

This paper investigates the impact of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds on systemic risk using Eisenberg-Noe’s financial network method, in which the network is linked by debt relationships. As an efficient method for addressing the problem of “too big to fail,” CoCo bonds have received widespread attention, particularly because the trigger for CoCo bonds is a systemic risk event. Thus, the impact of CoCo bonds on systemic risk needs to be addressed. To solve this problem, we adopt default contagion and loss amplification due to network linkage to measure systemic risk, from which we can ascertain the potential impact on it of CoCo bonds. The results show that CoCo bonds enhance the spillover effect of the issuer’s default; meanwhile, sufficient CoCo bonds partly offset the impact of default contagion from other banks. Furthermore, CoCo bonds enhance the amplification effect of loss due to network linkage, but the amplification effect diminishes after the bankruptcy cost is considered. Finally, the numerical test provides some insight into how the issuance of writedown (WD) bonds influences commercial banks in China. Our study not only offers suggestions to the regulators of CoCo bonds but also contributes to related studies.     

The use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting: An empirical test

Nearly 500 annual sales forecasts were generated from the responses of 82 subjects who were presented with either a time-series plot of historical sales data by itself or with the same plus three scenarios, and were then asked to make forecasts. Sales forecasts were made in either a stable or an unstable environment. The findings did not support the claims made by scenario advocates. Scenarios did not make unexpected outcomes less surprising. Instead, scenarios were found to increase confidence in a favored forecast. Furthermore, no support was found for the contention that scenarios improved upon ‘eyeball’ extrapolations or made judgmental sales forecasts more accurate than quantitative extrapolations. Scenarios were found to be tainted by many of the same biases previously identified by cognitive psychologists.     

Too much of a good thing: The impact of product variety on operations and sales performance

We examine the impact of product variety decisions on an operational measure – unit fill rate – and on sales performance. Results are estimated using weekly data over three years from 108 distribution centers of a major soft drink bottler. Our results show that fill rates are negatively associated with product variety at a diminishing rate. In addition, we examine the total effect of product variety on sales including both the direct effect and the indirect effect through operations performance. The total impact of product variety on sales initially is positive, although at a diminishing rate. However, beyond a certain level, increased product variety actually results in lower sales; that is, “too much of a good thing”. Thus, the findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of product variety on operations and sales performance.     

Spatial Aspects of Contagion among Emerging Economies

Abstract

A spatial model is used to specify and then test for the existence of contagion among emerging market economies. We consider both trade and regional channels of contagion. Our results suggest that contagion is a statistically significant factor in foreign exchange markets and, furthermore, its effects are not uniform across the countries considered. Our results also suggest that trade links are significant channels of contagion transmission; on the other hand, geographic distances do not appear to be significant channels of contagion transmission. We also report results which indicate the extent of contagion. These results relate to effects which emanate from one country to another.

Aspects spatiaux de la contagion parmi les économies émergentes

Résumé?Nous faisons usage d'un modèle spatial pour spécifier, puis tester, l'existence d'une contagion parmi les économies des marchés émergents. Nous nous penchons sur les vecteurs commercial et régional de cette contagion. Nos résultats indiquent d'une part que la contagion est un facteur significatif sur le plan statistique dans les marchés à commerce extérieur, d'autre part que ses effets ne sont pas uniformes dans les pays examinés. Nos résultats nous permettent d'affirmer également que les relations commerciales sont des vecteurs significatifs de transmission de la contagion; par contre, les distances géographiques ne semblent pas être des vecteurs significatifs de transmission de la contagion. Nous présentons également des résultats qui soulignent l’étendue de la contagion: ces résultats portent sur les effets émanant d'un pays à un autre.

Aspectos espaciales del contagio entre economias emergentes

Résumén?Se utiliza un modelo espacial para especificar, y luego se comprueba la existencia de contagio entre las economías de mercados emergentes. Consideramos canales de contagio, tanto comerciales como regionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el contagio es un factor estadísticamente significativo en los mercados de divisas, así como que sus efectos no son uniformes a través de los países considerados. Nuestros resultados también sugieren que los lazos comerciales son canales significativos para la transmisión de contagio; por otra parte, las distancias geográficas no parecen ser canales significativos de transmisión de contagio. También incluimos resultados que indican la extensión del contagio. Dichos resultados se relacionan con efectos que emanan de un país a otro.

     

The Changing Nature of Currency Crises

Abstract.  Currency crises that have been observed in recent years are not a new phenomenon, but the main features of the crises in Latin America in the 1970s and early 1980s are quite different from the crisis in Europe in 1992. Theoretical literature has evolved over time to account for the changing nature of these crises. While many theoretical and empirical papers have been written about various episodes of these crises, the change in their mechanism over time has not been demonstrated well. This paper fills the gap in the literature by graphically depicting the main features of these crises. Such a visual analysis should allow the reader to better understand and follow the changes in the mechanisms over time.