我国三次产业间相互拉动关系研究

十八大报告中提出要推进经济结构战略性调整,这是加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向,必须以改善需求结构、优化产业结构、促进区域协调发展、推进城镇化为重点,着力解决制约经济持续健康发展的重大结构性问题.现阶段要进一步促进中国经济的继续深入协调发展,必须高度重视三次产业间的相互协调促进作用,使农业、工业和建筑业以及服务业稳固协调发展.这不仅是关系经济社会的发展,更是关系民生的重大问题.本文基于VAR模型对1978～2011年三次产业数据进行分析,得出短期和长期中三次产业间相互拉动关系,凸显第三产业的重要作用,并提出相关的发展建议,具有理论和现实意义.     

珠三角产业转移的“推拉力”分析——兼论金融危机对广东“双转移”的影响

本文在分析了广东区域经济布局的基础上,研究了影响珠三角产业转移的因素:迫使企业离开珠三角迁往其他地区的推力,即政策推动、土地约束、环保管制和劳动力成本上升;鼓励企业继续留在珠三角的拉力,即规模经济吸引、产业特征粘性、城市功能限制和投资环境差异。珠三角的企业通过权衡这两类因素决定是否往其他地区迁移。在上述分析框架下,本文探讨了金融危机对广东双转移的影响以及广东产业转移的趋势。     

供给拉动和需求推动的金融监管制度改进

金融监管制度供给不足和金融监管制度供给过剩是我国金融监管制度非均衡的两种基本形式。中国金融监管制度在总体上体现出政府供给主导型的特征,需求主导型尚未形成。随着金融创新发展,需要在基于市场需求、金融市场参与者的效用、金融功能等方面推动监管制度的供给。要实现金融监管制度供给、需求的均衡,仅从供给和需求的单方面改进无法实现,这就必须寻求第三条道路,既要有供给的适当超前性,也要有需求的拉动,走强制性和诱致性的交互演进之路。     

Cities under stress

This paper studies the effect of terrorist attacks on the internal structure of cities. We develop an urban framework with capital structures suitable for the study of this question and analyze the long and short term implications of this type of events. In the long run, the analysis shows that a terrorist attack will affect urban structure only modestly, relative to the potentially large decrease in the level of economic activity in the city. Land rents will not decline at all locations. In the short run, agglomeration forces will amplify the effect of the original destruction and will reduce urban economic activity temporarily.     

The effects of randomizing the opening time on the performance of a stock market under stress

To tackle challenges from derivatives trading and illiquidity, reduce manipulation and improve price discovery, many exchanges have started opening at random times. We investigate how randomization has affected the performance of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange at trade opening and at the expiration of stock-index derivatives. Randomization has improved price discovery and reduced excess volatility and price distortion, especially on expiration dates. Although preopening prices do not converge to full information values, post-randomization, opening prices on expiration days are at least as accurate as on other days. Spot market trading systems significantly impact the effects of derivatives on spot prices.     

欧洲银行压力测试的启示

2010年7月23日,欧洲银行监管委员会（CEBS）公布了欧洲银行压力测试的结果。这些测试涉及欧洲91家银行,其目的是确定银行体系的稳健性,以恢复市场信心,并采取相关行动来完善目前银行业的不足。总体而言,若欧洲经济出现该测试提及的最糟糕情景,欧洲银行可能面临5660亿欧元的潜在亏损,其中670亿欧元与主权债务冲击有关。到2011年底,总体的一级资本充足率将从2009年的10．3％下降至9．2％。     

Taking the stress out of stressful conversations.

Stressful conversations are unavoidable in life. In business, they can run the gamut from firing a subordinate to, curiously enough, receiving praise. But whatever the context, stressful conversations carry a heavy emotional load. Indeed, stressful conversations cause such anxiety that most people simply avoid them. Yet it can be extremely costly to dodge issues, appease difficult people, and smooth over antagonisms; avoidance usually only worsens a problem or a relationship. Using vivid examples of the three basic stressful conversations that people bump up against most often in the workplace, the author explains how managers can improve those interactions unilaterally. To begin with, they should approach the situations with greater self-awareness. Awareness building is not about endless self-analysis; much of it simply involves making tacit knowledge about oneself more explicit. It is important for those who are vulnerable to hostility, for example, to know how they react to it. Do they clam up or do they retaliate? Knowing how you react in a stressful situation will teach you a lot about your trouble areas and can help you master stressful situations. The author also recommends rehearsing difficult conversations in advance to fine-tune your phrasing and tone. And the best way to keep from being thrown off balance by difficult conversations that crop up unexpectedly is to develop a few hip-pocket phrases that you can pull out on the spot. We all know from past experience what kinds of conversations and people we handle badly. The trick is to have prepared conversational tactics to address those situations.     

互联网金融:监管与支持需齐头并举

在全国政协十二届二次会议上,无论是委员的提案,还是界别的小组讨论,互联网金融都是一个绕不开的话题。政协委员肯定了互联网金融是传统金融行业与互联网精神相结合的新兴领域,其依托互联网实现的包括货币支付、资金融通等金融行为,与传统金融相比,互联网金融具有简单便捷、透明度强、参与度高、协作性好、成本低等特点,但对互联网金融目前处于无监管状态的极大风险,很多委员强烈呼吁,必须加快对互联网金融监管,尽快启动立法程序,及时将监管成果转化成为民服务的具体信息。同时,也有委员提出,政府应敏锐把握互联网金融的发展契机,在资金、规划、政策等多方面给予支持,弓I导互联网金融作为传统金融的补充,为小微企业融资提供创新服务     

A macroeconomic reverse stress test

Reverse stress tests are a relatively new stress test instrument that aims at finding exactly those scenarios that cause a bank to cross the frontier between survival and default. Afterward, the scenario which is most probable has to be identified. This paper sketches a framework for a quantitative reverse stress test for maturity-transforming banks that are exposed to credit and interest rate risk and demonstrates how the model can be calibrated empirically. The main features of the proposed framework are: (1) the necessary steps of a reverse stress test (solving an inversion problem and computing the scenario probabilities) can be performed within one model, (2) scenarios are characterized by realizations of macroeconomic risk factors, (3) principal component analysis helps to reduce the dimensionality of the space of systematic risk factors, (4) due to data limitations, the results of reverse stress tests are exposed to considerable model and estimation risk, which makes numerous robustness checks necessary.     

我国银行业信用风险宏观压力测试研究

本文通过实证研究提出并论证了一种宏观压力测试方法,该方法可用于银行业监管和系统性风险的防范.首先采用有序多分类Logistic模型测算行业原始违约概率,再运用MFD违约概率模型将宏观冲击因子引入以求得渗入宏观经济因子的违约概率,然后采用CreditRisk+模型分别测算不同宏观压力情景下与信用风险对应的经济资本变化,经...     

Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress

In this paper, I propose an approach to measuring systemic financial stress. In particular, abrupt and large changes in the volatility of financial variables that represent the dynamics of the US financial sector are modeled with a joint regime-switching process, distinguishing “low” and “high” volatility regimes. I find that the joint “high” volatility regime for the TED spread, return on the NYSE index, and capital-weighted CDS spread for large banks is closely related to periods of financial stress. This result suggests that the probability of the joint high volatility regime of these financial variables can be considered as a measure of systemic financial stress.     

Cumulative trauma and stress at work

Cumulative trauma is a form of workers' compensation claim in which an employee contends that a major illness or disability is the cumulative result of minor job stresses and strains extending over a period of years. The paper reviews the U.S. legal developments in this area and discusses their implications for both corporate policy and the developments of accounting for the human resource.     

Measuring financial stress in transition economies

This study constructs a financial stress index for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia and examines the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. The financial stress index incorporates banking sector fragility, time varying stock market return volatility, sovereign debt spreads, an exchange market pressure index, and trade credit. These variables seem to capture key aspects of financial stress in sample countries as the index peaks at known financial crises in these countries. We then examine the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. Impulse response functions based on bivariate VARs show a significant relationship between financial stress and some measures of economic activity. Overall, the constructed financial stress index provides valuable information on the state of the economy and economic activity.     

Budgeting, the individual and the capital market: A case of fiscal stress

Budgetary control is a major aspect of management control. It has undergone major shifts of emphasis in both the literature and practice in the later part of the 20th century. A significant influence on the changing practices of this aspect of control has been the growth of and increased influence of the capital market. This paper draws on a detailed field study focusing on the problematic nature of budgetary control in a changing operational environment that acknowledges both the importance, internally, of the organisation members and their contribution to continued growth—and externally the growing influence of shareholders on business operations. The focus of the paper is on the effects of the constant pressure of the share price on the case unit of analysis and how that changed the use of the budgetary control system. This change is illustrated both at a macro level of organisational accountability for predicted results and also as it is driven down the organisation to the level of the individual.