最适度货币区理论对欧元启动后效果的分析

经过近半个的不懈努力,欧元终于成功地诞生了,于1999年1月1日成为欧盟中的十一个成员国的共同货币,欧元区的大小几科与美国相法,随着越来越多的国家加入欧元区,欧元区的实力以及欧元在国际经济关系中的重要性将日益增强,可以肯定地说,欧元是欧盟各成员国政府在政治、经济方面的重大成就。     

丹麦徘徊在欧元区门外

正担任欧盟轮值主席国的丹麦最近很纠结：虽是欧盟资深成员，但至今在包括货币和国防合作的四个领域没有融入欧盟。丹麦经济高度依赖欧盟，虽未加入欧元区却深受经济一体化带来的影响。而根据丹麦银行近日公布的最新民意调查，反对加入欧元区的票数再次超过一半。徘徊在欧元区门外，丹麦左右为难。     

普罗迪来中国当老师

他是欧元全面启用的推动者,《欧盟宪法条约》的起草者,欧盟东扩的领导者;他仅用半年时间就把意大利的财政和通胀指标降到欧洲货币同盟所要求的标准之内;他带领意大利成为欧元区首批成员国;现在他来到了中国,以教授的身份……     

普罗迪来中国当老师

他是欧元全面启用的推动者,《欧盟宪法条约》的起草者,欧盟东扩的领导者;他仅用半年时间就把意大利的财政和通胀指标降到欧洲货币同盟所要求的标准之内;他带领意大利成为欧元区首批成员国;现在他来到了中国,以教授的身份……     

欧盟东扩与欧元前景

举世瞩目的欧盟东扩5月1日实现了，为此，欧盟将以新老欧洲组合的整体模式向世界展现欧洲经济、政治新格局的崭新面貌。面对经济全球化和区域化的理念和行为上的快速发展及差异变化，国际金融市场面对主要货币汇率的急剧波动，欧盟东扩、欧元汇率以及美欧竞争等焦点都值得关注。尤其是对汇率而言，欧盟东扩之后市场更多的关注则集中在欧元汇率上，即欧盟东扩的作用与欧元稳定的风险。     

货币一体化的形成条件

由欧盟11个成员国所组成的欧元区作为一个单一货币区已经启动,它在货币一体化领域的重大突破使区域经济一体化的理论探索上升到一个更高的视野。因此,本文将以蒙代尔的”最优货币区”理论和欧盟制定的马斯特里赫特条约等包含货币一体化思想的成果作为研究货币一体化的切入点,以探索货币一体化形成的抽象理论。     

如何抗衡美元

作为世界最大经济体，欧盟GDP占全球总量的30％。欧盟由27个国家组成，但欧元区只有16个国家，这表明不是每个成员国都想将欧元作为流通货币。欧元货币体系现在已经很成熟了，以致有些人甚至忘了欧元是1999年才启动，欧元现钞2002年才开始流通，而欧盟成立于1957年。这意味着，欧洲花了40年时间才建立起自己的货币体系。在20世纪80年代，国际投机者大量抛英镑、买马克，     

欧盟东扩和引发的几点思考

对欧盟东扩谈判进程和尼斯会议作了评估，认为２１世纪初欧盟通过新一轮扩大将塑造一个全新的欧洲。论文从欧盟一体化协调机制、中东欧国家融入欧洲、大国关系调整和世界格局变动，以及中欧关系等四个方面评论欧盟东扩可能在政治、经济、意识形态等领域产生重大的影响。     

国际

|速读|8月17日,芬兰外长埃尔基·图奥米奥亚表示,欧盟国家领导人应当为欧元区瓦解做好准备。他说,成员国退出欧元区"只是个时间问题","因为欧元这一‘货币紧身衣’给数百万人带来了痛苦,并正在摧毁欧洲     

从欧元看货币一体化的发展前景

自2002年欧元进入流通以来,欧元区经济表现一直不见起色。本文对货币一体化的效应进行了深入分析,试图给出上述现象的一种经济学解释。本文发现货币一体化对欧元区经济产生了以下几方面的不利影响:第一,货币一体化产生的通货膨胀效应;第二,货币一体化造成的差别产品效应和竞争力的削弱;第三,货币一体化带来的组织呆滞效应。基于上述分析,本文认为,欧元区货币一体化对该地区经济发展所起的作用弊大于利,欧元并非一种成功的区域性货币。有鉴于此,必须慎重对待东亚未来可能的货币合作,慎言区域货币一体化的道路。     

A New EU Member Country on the Road to the Euro Area: Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Slovenia

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.      

欧元区国家主权债务危机、欧元及欧盟经济

论文认为欧元区主权债务危机的基本性质属于南欧国家寅吃卯粮所导致的财政危机,但是由于欧元区在制度设置和运行机制上存在缺陷,使债务危机演变成欧元的信任危机。欧元区成员国和欧盟业已认识到欧洲货币联盟的不足,通过加强财政政策一体化来克服欧元区的内在矛盾似乎不可避免。欧元不会因为主权债务危机的冲击而垮台,但是欧洲经济将受到债务危机的拖累,增长前景不容乐观。     

Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States

The issues of enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and economic development are important not only to new European Union (EU) member states but impact all 25 countries. EU membership may help the new members to foster long-term economic growth through increased credibility, effective use of structural funds, a better framework for economic growth, and entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). The economic growth of all member states can be strengthened if the reforms related to the main goals of the Lisbon Agenda are completed. Action must be taken both at the member-state level and at the Community level. At the member-state level it is necessary to assure fiscal consolidation and deregulation. At the Community level the preservation of the Stability and Growth Pact, completion of the single market, especially in the service sector, and enforcement of limits on public aid are of the greatest importance.The 2006 Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Address presented at the Sixty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference. Berlin, Germany, 15–19 March 2006. In preparing this paper, I was assisted by Pawel Opala and Andrzej Rzońca. The usual caveats apply.     

Shall the New EU Members Introduce the Euro? Some Macroeconomic Policy Effects

After the EU enlargement in 2004, there is a clear commitment of the EU and the new member states to aim at an enlargement of the euro zone within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as well. This might have significant effects on the old EMU, the new members, and even on the global economy. The present paper analyzes some macroeconomic effects and particularly the impact on the effects of stabilization policies when switching to an enlarged euro zone under different assumptions about fiscal and monetary policy regimes in Europe and under alternative types of economic shocks. Also, the implications for the US of different European monetary regimes are evaluated. The results suggest that economic benefits for all countries are rather small. For the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), even disadvantages may dominate.     

Monetary policy towards E(M)U accession: A central banker's view

This paper gives a brief overview of the main economic issues related to the forthcoming integration of the new EU member countries into the euro area. Subsequently, it will discuss in more detail three broad issues concerning the monetary side of EU enlargement. First addressed is the timing of euro area enlargement and monetary policy regimes in the run up to the EMU. The next focus is on the ERM II as an interim step towards the euro area. Third, the author expresses his views on the future of the ECB and the euro area, which the Czech Republic will have an opportunity to co-determine after its entry. The paper is based on the author's Distinguished Address, as well as the symposium's panel discussion on the topic at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in Vienna, 14 March 2003.     

The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?

This paper investigates what lessons may be learned from EMU for the enlargement of the euro area. It examines the situation of present and prospective EU countries in respect of nominal and real convergence. It suggests that fulfilling the EMU criteria consistently over the next few years will require huge efforts by prospective EU countries, with important output and employment losses. The possibility that present EU countries would have to bear part of these costs cannot be ruled out, with the risk of provoking tensions within the EU, in particular as regards the ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary policy decisions of the ECB.     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Zone

The European Central Bank adopted a policy of quantitative easing early in 2015, long after the US and UK, and after implementing a succession of measures to increase liquidity in the Euro zone financial markets, none of which proved sufficient eventually. The paper draws out lessons for the Euro zone from US and UK experience. Numerous event studies have been undertaken to uncover the effects of QE on yields on and prices of financial assets. Estimated effects on long-term government bond yields are then converted into the size of the cut in the policy rate that would normally have been needed to produce them. From these implicit cuts in policy rates, estimates of the effect on GDP and inflation are generated. Euro zone QE appears to have had a much smaller effect on bond yields for the core members states than did QE in the US or UK. Therefore its effects on output and inflation are likely to be proportionately smaller. Its effects on long-term government bond yields in periphery members are greater. QE is compressing interest differential among Euro zone member states. The dangers of QE to which various commentators draw attention, that it creates a danger of inflation in the future, that it creates asset price bubbles, that it allows zombie firms and banks to survive, slowing down the process of adjustment, seem remote. Meanwhile it makes a useful contribution to cutting the costs of debt service and allowing member states more fiscal room for maneouvre.     

Risks to the long-term stability of the euro

There are grounds for immediate and long-term concerns with respect to the prospects for the stability of the euro's purchasing power. The immediate concerns arise from the pressures on the ECB to be more accommodative and the drive to weaken the Stability and Growth Pact. The long-term concerns arise from the spending obligations the member governments have assumed to provide pensions and health care to their aging populations for the next half-century, and the imminent enlargement of the EU to include ten states that are less economically and institutionally advanced than the present group of member states. The outlook is for greater spending by governments than their projected resources unless forces not now visible will strengthen the resolve of political leaders to serve the cause of a sound euro.Presidential address at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Quebec City, Canada on Saturday, October 18, 2003.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.