Trade agreements, bargaining and economic growth

Rebelo’s two-sector endogenous growth model is embedded within a two-country international trade framework. The two countries bargain over a trade agreement that specifies: (i) the size of the foreign aid that the richer country gives to the poorer one; (ii) the terms of the international trade that takes place after the aid is given. Foreign aid is given not because of generosity, but because it improves the capital allocation across the world and thus raises total world production. This world production surplus enables the rich country to raise its equilibrium consumption and welfare beyond their no-aid levels. To ensure it, the rich country uses a trade agreement to condition the aid on favorable terms of trade.     

International trade, exhaustible-resource abundance and economic growth

Countries with oil and other natural resources have grown less rapidly than those countries without. This phenomenon is known as the “natural resource curse”. We develop an infinite-horizon, two-country model of trade in which countries are identical, except that one country is endowed with deposits of an exhaustible resource and the other is not. Within the context of the model, we show that this phenomenon can be explained in part by an inelastic demand for the exhaustible resource that increases growth in trade revenues and induces the resource-abundant country to invest relatively less than the country lacking in exhaustible resources. These results are derived analytically and illustrated by an empirical analysis based on plausible parameters obtained from data.     

ENDOGENOUS FLUCTUATIONS IN TWO‐COUNTRY MODELS*

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles of large‐country economies in a free‐trade equilibrium. We consider a two‐country, two‐good, two‐factor general equilibrium model with Cobb‐Douglas technologies and linear preferences. We also assume decreasing returns to scale in the consumption good sector. We first identify the determinants of each country's global accumulation pattern in autarky equilibrium, and secondly we show how a country's business cycles may spread throughout the world once trade opens. We thus give capital intensity conditions for local and global stability of competitive equilibrium paths.     

Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth

We examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing, using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors, and corrects for possible reverse causality. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries. We provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows. We conjecture that this may explain, in part, why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow.     

Remittances,financial development,and growth

Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth, in particular how local financial sector development influences a country's capacity to take advantage of remittances. Using a newly-constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries, we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimation. We also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population.     

Composition of International Assets and the Long‐run Current Account

We document the role of capital gains and losses for the current account that a country can sustain along a balanced growth path. While it is well know that growth allows a country to run a current account deficit and still keep its external debt stable as a share of GDP, the sensitivity of the current account to the composition of external assets and liabilities has received little attention. We show that this composition matters because several assets, such as equity or FDI, earn substantial capital gains that are not reflected in the current account. A country that is a net creditor in such assets can then sustain a larger current account deficit. Using a broad sample, we show that this aspect substantially tilts estimates of the long‐run current account towards a deficit among industrialized economies, with the opposite situation for emerging markets. We also show that industrialized economies are likely to benefit from predictable capital gains in the future.     

PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT SPENDING,PATTERNS OF SPECIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY*

Constructing a two‐sector small open endogenous growth model with productive government spending, this paper examines patterns of specialization and the growth effects of fiscal policy. It is shown in this model that a change in income tax rate can cause a change in an equilibrium pattern of specialization. Because of this property, the relationship between the tax rate and the growth rate yields either a humped shape or a two‐humped shape, depending on world commodity prices. We also show that the growth maximizing tax rate is not necessarily equal to the tax rate that maximizes the level of social welfare.     

Walrasian General Equilibrium Allocations and Dynamics in Two-Sector Growth Models

This paper analyzes and solves miniature Walrasian general equilibrium systems of momentary and moving equilibria. The Walrasian framework encompasses the fundamental neoclassical and classical two‐sector growth models; the families of solutions of steady‐state and persistent growth per capita in various competitive two‐sector economies are parametrically characterized. Moreover, the endogenous behavior of relative prices and the sectoral allocation of primary factors are analyzed in detail. The technology parameters of the capital good industry are decisive for obtaining long‐run per capita growth in closed (global) economies. A review of the literature complements the theorems on the general equilibrium allocations, dynamic systems, and the time paths of Walrasian two‐sector economies.     

Foreign direct investment,economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence

In this paper, we investigate the systemic link between economic freedom, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in a panel of 85 countries. Our empirical results, based on the generalized method-of-moment system estimator, reveal that FDI by itself has no direct (positive) effect on output growth. Instead, the effect of FDI is contingent on the level of economic freedom in the host countries. This means the countries promote greater freedom of economic activities gain significantly from the presence of multinational corporations (MNCs).     

Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.     

Intellectual property rights, multinational firms and economic growth

This paper develops a model of North-South trade with multinational firms and economic growth in order to analyze formally the effects of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in developing countries. In the model, Northern firms invent new higher-quality products, multinational firms transfer manufacturing operations to the South and the Southern firms imitate products produced by multinational firms. It is shown that stronger IPR protection in the South (i.e., the adoption and implementation of the TRIPs agreement) leads to a permanent increase in the rate of technology transfer to the South within multinational firms, a permanent increase in R&D employment by Southern affiliates of Northern multinationals, a permanent decrease in the North-South wage gap, and a temporary increase in the Northern innovation rate.     

Trade costs, international production shifting, and growth

In this paper I present a North-South endogenous growth model in which the impact of globalization on production location and growth can be analyzed. In the model the skilled-labor abundant North is the only innovator in the world. Using the model, I illustrate a scenario that is particularly interesting. Globalization (a reduction in trade costs) leads to a relocation of production to the South in a differentiated-product sector. As a result, more resources are shifted to R&D in the North, and the growth rate in the world increases. The model has several empirically consistent implications, such as rising relative wages of skilled to unskilled labor under globalization in both the North and South. I also discuss the welfare impact of globalization in this model.     

Sudden stops,sectoral reallocations,and the real exchange rate

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994–95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.     

Aid effectiveness: the role of the local elite

We study the importance of the local elite as a determinant of the effectiveness of foreign aid in developing countries. The local elite serves as an intermediary between aid donors and aid recipients through its control of the government and major firms. The likelihood of misusing aid is large if the elite is characterized by extensive economic and political power and little concern for social groups besides itself. To determine which countries have this type of elite we use a historically determined variable: the percentage of European settlers in total population in colonial times. We provide strong empirical evidence that the level of European settlement in colonial times is negatively related to the effectiveness of foreign aid as measured in a growth-regression framework. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a wide set of alternative explanatory factors advanced in the aid effectiveness literature.     

Product market competition,R&D composition and growth

We revisit the relation between product market competition and leading-edge growth in a model where horizontal and vertical innovations simultaneously occur. We show that competition exerts an important effect on the composition of aggregate R&D (vertical versus horizontal). In fact, when product market competition gets more intense, a larger fraction of R&D is engaged in improving the quality of products; this occurs at the expense of a lower rate of horizontal innovation. This effect, which is absent in the basic endogenous growth model with only vertical innovations, may overturn the inverse relation between product market competition and leading-edge growth found in prior theoretical models.     

Inequality,growth, and environmental quality trade‐offs in a model with human capital accumulation

This paper develops a simple endogenous growth model where pollution exposure and vulnerability are unequally spread across the population, and growth and distribution are endogenous. In this set‐up, we investigate whether trade‐offs between growth, distributional, and environmental concerns may emerge. We show that a tighter environmental policy reduces income inequality and can improve both growth and total welfare. Immediate welfare losses, though, do occur, and are larger for countries that start at low levels of environmental quality (e.g. developing countries).     

Imports and growth in China

In this paper, we analyze the role played by imports and investment on labor productivity and output in China from 1964 to 2004. In doing so, our analysis focuses on the role of technological progress incorporated into the Chinese economy through capital accumulation and imports, which could be a cause of significant technology transfer from abroad that facilitated industrialization and rapid growth in China. However, as we know that there could be other factors influencing economic development, we have also considered the role played by domestic innovation activities, competitiveness and foreign economic conditions. We focus on examining the short- and long-run effects of the considered variables as well as the direction of their causality. In addition, we investigate the role played by the exchange rate on growth and discuss some policy implications of this effect on the current debate on the appreciation of the Yuan. The empirical results provide evidence that both imports and investment encourage output and labor productivity in the long run, but neither investment causes imports nor imports cause investment. Moreover, we found that during the period considered the real exchange rate influenced output, but not productivity. These findings provide interesting insights on the future Chinese economic policy.     

Economic growth,exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis

This paper investigates potential Granger causality among the real GDP, real exports and inward FDI in Least Developed Countries for the period between 1970 and 2009. A new panel-data approach developed in Kónya (2006) [Kónya (2006), Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992] which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values has been employed. The results indicate direct, one-period-ahead, unidirectional causality from exports to GDP in Haiti, Rwanda and Sierra Leone, and from GDP to exports in Angola, Chad and Zambia. Considering the FDI–Growth nexus, there is evidence of FDI Granger-causing GDP in Benin and Togo, and GDP Granger-causing FDI in Burkina Faso, Gambia, Madagascar and Malawi. While studying EXP–FDI relations, this paper finds that the causality is from FDI to real exports in Benin, Chad, Haiti, Mauritania, Niger, Togo and Yemen, and from real exports to FDI in Haiti, Madagascar, Mauritania, Malawi, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia.     

Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.