A Dynamic Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance

Prior research suggests that neither the choice to own life insurance nor the amount purchased is consistently related to the presence of children in the household. While these perplexing findings are based on a static framework, we alternatively examine life insurance demand in a dynamic framework as a function of changes in household life cycle and financial condition. Our results indicate both a statistically and economically significant relation between life events, such as new parenthood, and the demand for life insurance. We also provide new evidence in support of the emergency fund hypothesis: households in which either spouse has become unemployed are more likely than other households to surrender their whole life insurance.     

Life Insurance Lapse Behavior

Life insurance policy lapses are detrimental to issuing insurers when lapses substantially deviate from insurer expectations. The extant literature has proposed and tested, using macroeconomic data, several hypotheses regarding lapse determinants. While macroeconomic data are useful in providing a general test of lapse determinants, the use of aggregate data precludes an analysis of microeconomic factors that may drive the lapse decision. We develop and test a microeconomic model of voluntary life insurance lapse behavior and provide some of the first evidence regarding household factors related to life insurance lapses. Our findings support and extend the prior evidence regarding lapse determinants. Consistent with the emergency fund hypothesis we find that voluntary lapses are related to large income shocks, and consistent with the policy replacement hypothesis we find that the decision to lapse a life insurance policy is directly related to the purchase of a different life insurance policy. We also find that age is an important moderating factor in the lapse decision. Changes in income appear to more directly affect the decision to lapse for younger households, while they are generally unrelated to the lapse decision for older households.     

Voluntary Termination of Life Insurance Policies

Abstract

In this paper, one error-correction model (ECM) that is able to avoid the problem of producing noise within traditional multiple cointegration vectors has been employed to explore the dynamics of surrender behavior. The evidence shows that both the emergency fund hypothesis and interest rate hypothesis are sustained in the short run as well as in the long run. A unique cointegration relationship within the surrender dynamics has been validated. In addition, a new hypothesis test that stresses the competition for the withdrawal of life insurance policy cash values has also been conducted. Such a crowding-out effect between policy loans and policy surrenders might be attributed to the motivation that keeps a life policy in force, the existence of surrender charges, and the automatic premium loan provision.     

保险保障基金最优规模的积累规律及影响因素——基于动态视角和SYS-GMM方法的研究

保险保障基金是解决保险业风险的有力工具,但由于道德风险的存在,该基金并非越多越好,而是存在一个最优规模。本文首先通过最优控制方法构建关于保险保障基金最优规模积累规律的动态模型,通过恰当地控制各期基金的使用量,可以使其规模达到最优规模的要求。基于此,运用中国寿险公司和财险公司近10年来的面板数据,通过系统广义矩方法研究保险保障基金规模的影响因素。研究发现:财险业相对于寿险业更倾向通过保险保障基金方式进行风险管理;当保险公司采取目标集聚战略和差异化战略时,倾向提高保险保障基金的提取规模,而采取总成本领先战略则会降低提取规模;保险公司的竞争战略不同的组合方式会对保障基金的提取规模产生复杂的影响。     

我国保单质押贷款业务的法律评析

保单质押贷款业务在近年快速发展,而我国现行法律对该业务的调整存在诸多空白。本文认为从质押业务法理分析,具有储金或现金价值的一切寿险或非寿险保单均可作为保单质押对象,但设质的财产权利应限于退保金或现金价值,不应包括保险金请求权。保单质押后,投保人、贷款人和保险人按照质押协议承担相应的权利和义务,同时,投保人在保险合同中享有的部分权利,当有可能减少或流失质物时,该项权利应被限制或冻结。     

经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求

本文在拓展背景风险理论研究的基础上,揭示了经济政策不确定性对保险需求的影响及其受地区文化制约的理论机制。并利用2007-2017年中国30个地区的月度面板数据,检验了经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求间的内在联系。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会对保险需求产生显著正影响,且这种效应在地区人身险需求上表现更明显;第二,将地区文化指标集纳入经济政策不确定性与保险需求关系的研究框架,发现地区文化差异会对经济政策不确定性影响保险需求产生调节效应。因此政府需在充分重视经济政策波动和文化对经济活动的双重影响基础上,加强国内社会保障体系建设,建立更透明的信息传递渠道,培育人们主动抵抗风险的意识和文化习惯,调整保险供给结构,以减少不确定性对社会经济行为的负面冲击。     

地方政府债券置换对银行信贷及货币供给的影响

通过构建基于商业银行资产负债结构的地方债置换分析框架,研究表明,地方债置换将通过商业银行资产结构在贷款与债券之间的配置调整影响货币供给,它将使银行可贷资金增加,并导致贷款规模的变化,在贷款创造存款的信用放大机制下,引起货币供应量的变化,进而造成货币政策的扩张(收缩).贷款市场的供求弹性将决定地方债置换的扩张效应或收缩效应.在经济增长放缓、银行为弥补持有地方债收益下降、地方债纳入货币政策工具的抵押品和质押品范围的情况下,地方债置换具有货币政策扩张效应.为减少地方债对金融市场的冲击,央行需密切监测商业银行资金运用情况,提高货币政策操作的针对性,并加强同财政政策的协同配合.     

城镇职工医保基金结余问题与基金费用给付模式协同研究——基于某省W区的实证研究

职工医保统筹基金的结余水平与基金所采取的费用给付模式息息相关,城镇职工医保费用给付运营模式决定着统筹基金的结余水平应当保持在什么样的水平。本文以审计人员特有的视角,利用大数据分析技术及审计成果将职工医保基金结余进一步细分为个人账户结余与统筹基金结余进行研究,通过审计研究成果与政策规定的冲突以及职工医保与城乡医保基金相互之间的比较,分析基金结余研究的关键因素,进而探讨医保统筹基金费用给付模式,并就现阶段我国执行现收现付制加弱积累制混合模式的历史原因及现实因素作进一步的深入分析,最后基于人口老龄化背景下缓解职工医保收支恶化趋势提出相应的对策与建议。     

Life insurance demand and borrowing constraints

The literature devoted limited attention to exploring the relationship between financial development and life insurance demand. Financial development supports life insurance supply by providing confidence in the financial system, more efficient payment systems, and higher availability of financial instruments. However, financial development reduces households' needs to save by relaxing borrowing constraints, indirectly affecting life insurance demand. We contribute by providing a demand‐driven explanation of the negative consequences of financial development on life insurance development. We find that more credit‐constrained countries have higher life insurance penetration on average. Indirectly, the role of borrowing constraints signifies the importance of life insurance policies as a financing tool in case of the realization of various background risks. This study integrates the knowledge from life insurance theory, life insurance lapse, policy loans demand, and saving under liquidity constraints literature and produces implications for researchers, policymakers, and life insurers.     

保单贷款相关问题初探

近几年来,以保单为质押的贷款形式正在中国迅速发展。保单贷款作为一种新型的融资工具,对投保人、保险公司及其他金融机构、被保险人或受益人有重要影响。本文通过对保单贷款的特征及所引起的法律、监管问题的分析,提出了加强保单贷款管理的对策,包括完善保险法律、法规,明确保单贷款的地位和经营规范;加强监管,规范保单贷款的运作;保险公司加强业务管理,提高偿付能力,维护良好的客户关系等。     

Target-Bequest Investment and Insurance Fund

We propose a new type of investment fund, a Target-Bequest Fund (TBF), for which the manager of the fund invests to maximize the probability of reaching a bequest goal, specified by the investor. We assume the fund pays dividends at a rate proportional to the value of the fund, with the proportion also specified by the investor. In addition to considering this basic fund, we propose two extensions. The first extension is to impose a no-borrowing constraint. Indeed, unless the investment fund is a hedge fund, it will likely not allow the manager to invest more in the risky asset than is available in the fund, so this constraint is a realistic one. The second extension is to allow the fund manager to buy life insurance to help reach the bequest goal. We consider both extensions in the special case for which the proportional dividend rate is less than or equal to the riskless rate of return. Our focus is to obtain explicit solutions in a simplified market and insurance setting to give actuaries implementing this fund design some rules-of-thumb for investing in a financial market and buying life insurance in more realistic settings. We fully expect these rules-of-thumb to be generally valid in those more realistic settings.     

The market of dynamic hybrid products in Germany: concept, risk-return profiles, and market overview

This article analyzes dynamic hybrid products along with their diverse characteristics and contract variations that are currently available in the German market. Dynamic hybrid products are innovative life insurance contracts combining features of traditional participating life insurance with those of unit-linked policies. This approach is thereby implemented by a mathematical algorithm based on a constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy that periodically reallocates funds (e.g. once per month or day) between the policy reserve stock (with an interest rate guarantee), a guarantee fund and/or equity fund. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by examining the concepts and key features of available dynamic hybrid products with particular focus on the embedded options, which allows the identification of key contract characteristics associated with them. In addition, risk-return profiles are studied and compared, which is of high relevance for regulators and policyholders. Our results show that these strongly vary, depending on the individual rebalancing mechanism and the type and amount of embedded options.     

Household Life Cycle Protection: Life Insurance Holdings, Financial Vulnerability, and Portfolio Implications

Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, we examine the life cycle demand for different types of life insurance. Specifically, we test for the consumer's aversion to income volatility resulting from the death of a household's wage‐earner through the purchase of life insurance. We first develop a financial vulnerability index to control for the risk to the household. We then examine the life cycle demand for life insurance using several definitions of life insurance. We find, in contrast to previous research, that there is a relationship between financial vulnerability and the amount of term life or total life insurance purchased. In addition, we find older consumers use less life insurance to protect a certain level of financial vulnerability than younger consumers. Secondly, our study provides evidence that life insurance demand is jointly determined as part of a household's portfolio. Finally, we consider the impact of family members' nonmonetary contribution on the household's life cycle protection decision. Our results provide some evidence that households take into account the value of nonmonetary contribution in their insurance purchase.     

地理距离、契约设计与企业内部资本市场借贷风险防控——来自中国企业集团内部借贷交易的证据

地理因素对保持距离型市场交易的影响已被大量文献证实,但系统考察地理因素是否以及如何影响企业内部经济活动的研究仍十分匮乏。基于手工搜集整理的企业集团内部委托贷款这一独特数据,我们实证考察了地理距离对企业集团内部借贷契约设计的影响及相关的风险防控问题。实证结果显示,借贷距离越远,针对借款者的契约设计越严苛,不仅贷款者更可能要求借款者提供抵押担保,而且对资金用途施加限制的概率也大幅增加。进一步研究发现,与地理距离阻碍了信息搜集和监督的经济直觉一致,距离对企业内部借贷契约严苛性的推高作用会因为借贷双方之间的信息摩擦问题差异而改变。而且,基于借贷违约信息的检验结果表明,作为应对信息不对称的机制,动态调整契约严苛性这一精巧契约设计有效降低了企业内部贷款违约风险。本文不仅增进了对地理因素影响企业内部资本配置的认识,而且加深了对企业内部借贷契约设计的理解,从而对如何有效防控企业内部资本市场运作风险具有启示意义。     

地理距离、契约设计与企业内部资本市场借贷风险防控——来自中国企业集团内部借贷交易的证据

地理因素对保持距离型市场交易的影响已被大量文献证实,但系统考察地理因素是否以及如何影响企业内部经济活动的研究仍十分匮乏。基于手工搜集整理的企业集团内部委托贷款这一独特数据,我们实证考察了地理距离对企业集团内部借贷契约设计的影响及相关的风险防控问题。实证结果显示,借贷距离越远,针对借款者的契约设计越严苛,不仅贷款者更可能要求借款者提供抵押担保,而且对资金用途施加限制的概率也大幅增加。进一步研究发现,与地理距离阻碍了信息搜集和监督的经济直觉一致,距离对企业内部借贷契约严苛性的推高作用会因为借贷双方之间的信息摩擦问题差异而改变。而且,基于借贷违约信息的检验结果表明,作为应对信息不对称的机制,动态调整契约严苛性这一精巧契约设计有效降低了企业内部贷款违约风险。本文不仅增进了对地理因素影响企业内部资本配置的认识,而且加深了对企业内部借贷契约设计的理解,从而对如何有效防控企业内部资本市场运作风险具有启示意义。     

我国汽车消费贷款保证保险的绩效分析

发展汽车消费贷款保证保险是保险业积极促进国内汽车消费的一项重要举措.既能间接扩大内需,推动国民经济增长,又能帮助银行管理贷款违约风险.本文通过构建汽车消费贷款保证保险绩效模型,分析得出汽车消费贷款保证保险能间接提高购车人信用等级,并为保险公司寻找新的利润点和融资渠道.最后根据绩效分析有针对性地提出了政策建议.     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

基于借款人保护视角的住房按揭贷款业务分析

文章在揭示住房按揭贷款的内涵与本质的基础上,总结出现阶段我国住房按揭贷款业务中借款人面临的主要问题有:开发商虚假承诺为业主办理按揭贷款、商业银行实施强制保险问题、商业贷款与公积金贷款问题、等额本金还款法与等额本息还款法的利息负担等。针对这些问题产生的原因以及影响,文章从保护借款人的角度分别提出相应的对策建议,包括:保费应与贷款余额同步减少,购房者应事前了解商业银行拒贷原因,购房者应结合自身的投资能力选择还款方式,人民银行应进一步明确对提前还贷违约金的规定等。     

Borrowing in foreign currency: Austrian households as carry traders

Household borrowing in a foreign currency is a widespread phenomenon in Austria. Thirteen percent of Austrian households report their housing loan to be denominated in foreign currency, mostly Swiss franc. Yet, despite its importance, peculiar character, and acute policy concerns, we know little about the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved in this type of carry trade. We analyze a uniquely detailed financial wealth survey of 2556 Austrian households to sketch a comprehensive profile of the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved. We employ both univariate tests and multivariate multinomial logit models. The survey data suggest that risk seeking, affluent, and married households are more likely to take a housing loan in a foreign currency. Financially literate or high-income households are more likely to take a housing loan in general. These findings partially assuage policy concerns about household default risk on foreign-currency housing loans or household retirement security.