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With the regulatory requirements for risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) has become an essential tool in determining capital reserves to protect the risk induced by adverse market movements. The fact that VaR is not coherent has motivated the industry to explore alternative risk measures such as expected shortfall. The first objective of this paper is to propose statistical methods for estimating multiple-period expected shortfall under GARCH models. In addition to the expected shortfall, we investigate a new tool called median shortfall to measure risk. The second objective of this paper is to develop backtesting methods for assessing the performance of expected shortfall and median shortfall estimators from statistical and financial perspectives. By applying our expected shortfall estimators and other existing approaches to seven international markets, we demonstrate the superiority of our methods with respect to statistical and practical evaluations. Our expected shortfall estimators likely provide an unbiased reference for setting the minimum capital required for safeguarding against expected loss. 相似文献
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Currency knock‐in knock‐out (KIKO) options had been widely used for hedging exchange rate risks in Korean financial markets. However, as the Korean won moved in an unexpected direction during the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008, the hedging instruments incurred huge losses to the option holders. In this paper, we analyze the event from the viewpoint of risk assessment and management. We find that, first, if the option holders had assessed the risk levels with and without the KIKO options by using standard risk measures like value‐at‐risk or conditional value‐at‐risk, then many KIKO option contracts would not have been justifiable from the beginning. Second, having a proper view on the exchange rate dynamics turned out to be crucial for risk assessment and management. If the companies had a proper view instead of a myopic view on the exchange rate movement, then the KIKO options might not have been chosen. Finally, ‘hedge‐and‐forget’ behavior proved to be very costly and reckless. If the companies had continuously assessed and managed their risks, then the losses from the KIKO options could have been significantly mitigated. Some relevant pricing issues are also investigated. We find that most KIKO option contracts under study might not be significantly overpriced. However, potential impacts of the possible mispricing could be considerable in some cases. Nonetheless, the risk management failure proved to be more important for the KIKO option losses than the possible mispricing problem. 相似文献
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分别采用等权移动平均方法、指教加权移动平均方法、GARCH(1,1)方法、GARCH(1,1)-t方法和Pareto型极值分布方法计算上海和深圳股票日收益率的VaR.向后检验表明,Pareto型极值分布方法比其他方法更能准确地反映我国股市的风险. 相似文献
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Ren‐Her Wang Shih‐Kuei Lin Cheng‐Der Fuh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies》2009,38(5):745-772
Risk management is an important issue when there is a catastrophic event that affects asset price in the market such as a sub‐prime financial crisis or other financial crisis. By adding a jump term in the geometric Brownian motion, the jump diffusion model can be used to describe abnormal changes in asset prices when there is a serious event in the market. In this paper, we propose an importance sampling algorithm to compute the Value‐at‐Risk for linear and nonlinear assets under a multi‐variate jump diffusion model. To be more precise, an efficient computational procedure is developed for estimating the portfolio loss probability for linear and nonlinear assets with jump risks. And the titling measure can be separated for the diffusion and the jump part under the assumption of independence. The simulation results show that the efficiency of importance sampling improves over the naive Monte Carlo simulation from 7 times to 285 times under various situations. We also show the robustness of the importance sampling algorithm by comparing it with the EVT‐Copula method proposed by Oh and Moon (2006). 相似文献
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In this paper, we investigate the role of eight commodity futures in asset allocation in China during the period January 2004–December 2015. The Chinese commodities and stocks are moderately correlated. We use quantile regressions based on a value-at-risk model to examine the relation between these two markets. We find no risk spillovers between the markets, suggesting that stocks and commodities in China are exposed to different risks. Using different asset allocation strategies, we show that including soymeal and soybeans in the Chinese stock index can offer some diversification gains. However, other Chinese commodities may not be useful for portfolio diversification. 相似文献
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论银行市场风险的资本计提——兼评内部模型法的适用性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Luo Meng Luo Ping 《国际金融研究》2008,(10)
市场风险及其监管资本要求的计量历来为业界和监管当局所关注。近期,次贷危机爆发导致的市场动荡使得全球银行业和监管当局开始重新审视其市场风险管理和监管资本要求。文章结合国际银行业和监管机构计量市场风险及其监管资本要求的当前做法,针对我国银行业的实际情况,重点探索了内部模型法在我国银行业的适用性,尤其是从方法论、特殊风险计量、验证等角度探讨了内部模型法的主要工具——风险价值体系在我国银行业计量市场风险及其监管资本要求的适用性,并从方法论和应用层面提出了相应的政策建议。 相似文献
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By comparing liquidity and price discovery effects, the market microstructure literature insists that in‐the‐money options (ITMs) are informationally inferior to out‐of‐the‐money options. However, such an argument is at odds with the anecdotal point that ITMs may be more effective for hedging future volatility risk. ITMs are driven by institutional investors, who are considered to be informed traders, and can provide significant hedging benefits such that a hedging with ITMs requires fewer options and less frequent rebalancing. To clear this suspicion, we compare implied risk‐neutral densities, implied risk aversions and volatility forecasting performances. Contrary to the anecdotal evidence, our findings show the inferiority of ITMs in forecasting future volatilities, even after adjusting for the risk attitude of investors. These findings offer support for the arguments made in the extant market microstructure literature. 相似文献
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Gunnar Grass 《Accounting & Finance》2012,52(3):831-848
I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case. 相似文献
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The accounting information currently issued by firms is not wholly adequate when used for decision making purposes, and within that process, for forecasting, for which additional information on risks is required. Therefore a reform of the current framework becomes necessary. Within this reform an adequate scheme and typology for the risks facing firms must be established and a set of specific risk quantification models must be designed. This paper focuses on both issues, showing all the risks that can affect firms and proposing a quantification model for each one. 相似文献
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本文在收益率曲线动态的主成分分析基础上,运用MonteCarlo模拟的主成分VaR方法,以我国五家商业银行为样本研究银行账户经济价值利率风险的计量方法,并与巴塞尔委员会标准久期法的结果进行比较。同时,对VaR模型的有效性进行了样本外的返回检验。研究发现,五家银行的经济价值面临的是利率上升的风险;非正态主成分VaR模型估计的经济价值利率风险,都要大于正态主成分VaR模型的结果,这反映了利率波动的厚尾特征,正态假设有可能低估风险。 相似文献
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Matthias Köhler 《Review of Financial Economics》2014,23(4):182-193
In this paper, we show that the impact of non-interest income on bank risk differs between retail- and investment-oriented banks. More specifically, while retail-oriented banks such as savings, cooperative and other banks that focus on lending and deposit-taking services become significantly more stable (in the sense of having a higher Z-score) if they increase their share of non-interest income, investment-oriented banks become significantly more risky. They do not only generate a higher share of their income from non-traditional activities, but also engage in significantly different activities from retail-oriented banks. This might limit the potential benefits to investment-oriented banks of diversifying into non-interest income. Overall, therefore, our paper implies that it is important to distinguish between retail- and investment-oriented banks when drawing general conclusions regarding the impact of non-interest income on bank risk. 相似文献
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Yiuman Tse 《The Financial Review》2016,51(1):83-111
This study examines the cross‐sectional variation of futures returns from different asset classes. The monthly returns are positively correlated with downside risk and negatively correlated with coskewness. The asymmetric volatility effect generates negatively skewed returns. Assets with high coskewness and low downside betas provide hedges against market downside risk and offer low returns. The high returns offered by assets with low coskewness and high downside betas are a risk premium for bearing downside risk. The asset pricing model that incorporates downside risk partially explains the futures returns. The results indicate a unified risk perspective to jointly price different asset classes. 相似文献
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This study investigates whether passive investment managers can exploit the size and value premia without incurring prohibitive transaction costs or being exposed to substantial tracking error risk. Returns on the value premium are shown to be pervasive across size groups, while the size premium is nonlinear and driven by microcaps. The value premium cannot be explained by the capital asset pricing model; however, returns on value portfolios do covary across monetary regimes. The substantial turnover required to achieve annual rebalancing and the relative illiquidity of Australian small‐cap firms means that investing in a portfolio of large‐cap value firms appears to be the best way for passive fund managers to exploit the Fama and French (1993) premia. 相似文献
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The calculus of VaR involves dealing with the confidence level, the time horizon and the true underlying conditional distribution function of asset returns. In this paper, we shall examine the effects of using a specific distribution function that fits well the low-tail data of the observed distribution of asset returns on the accuracy of VaR estimates. In our analysis, we consider some distributional forms characterized by capturing the excess kurtosis characteristic of stock return distributions and we compare their performance using some international stock indices. JEL Classification C15 · G10 相似文献
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Pursuing risk‐based allocation across a universe of commodity assets, we find diversified risk parity (DRP) strategies to provide convincing results. DRP strives for maximum diversification along uncorrelated risk sources. A straightforward way to derive uncorrelated risk sources relies on principal components analysis (PCA). While the ensuing statistical factors can be associated with commodity sector bets, the corresponding DRP strategy entails excessive turnover because of the instability of the PCA factors. We suggest an alternative design of the DRP strategy relative to common commodity risk factors that implicitly allows for a uniform exposure to commodity risk premia. 相似文献
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Piotr Jaworski 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(6):495-511
This study is based on the analogy between hedging a risky asset and keeping reserves to meet an unknown demand. The optimal hedging level, which depends on individual preferences, is regarded as a measure of risk. We determine the set of optimal levels and investigate the properties of the associated risk measures. This approach provides a new insight into Value at Risk (VaR). We consider it as a solution of a certain optimal inventory problem with linear cost and loss functions. We show that these functions determine the confidence level of VaR. In this way we obtain a simple model that helps us to choose a proper confidence level α and explains why supervisory institutions (such as the Basle Committee) choose a higher α than financial institutions themselves. 相似文献
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