Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market

This article addresses the micro-analytic foundations of illiquidity and price dynamics in the real estate market by integrating modern portfolio theory with models describing the real estate transaction process. Based on the notion that real estate is a heterogeneous good that is traded in decentralized markets and that transactions in these markets are often characterized by costly searches, we argue that the most important aspects defining real estate illiquidity in both residential and commercial markets are the time required for sale and the uncertainty of the marketing period. These aspects provide two sources of bias in the commonly adopted methods of real estate valuation, which are based solely on the prices of sold properties and implicitly assume immediate execution. We demonstrate that estimated returns must be biased upward and risks downward. These biases can be significant, especially when the marketing period is highly uncertain relative to the holding period. We also find that real estate risk is closely related to investors' time horizons, specifically that real estate risk decreases when the holding period increases. These results are consistent with the conventional wisdom that real estate is more favorable to long-term investors than to short-term investors. They also provide a theoretical foundation for the recent econometric literature, which finds evidence of smoothing of real estate returns. Our findings help explain the apparent risk-premium puzzle in real estate—that is, that ex post returns appear too high, given their apparent low volatility—and can lead to the formal derivation of adjustments that can define real estate's proper role in the mixed-asset portfolio.     

Forecasting the Discounts of Market Prices from Appraised Values for Real Estate Limited Partnerships

A vexing problem for the appraisal industry has been estimating an appropriate discount for the value of real estate limited partnerships (RELPs) relative to their appraised value. This research develops a linear regression model that explains over 80% of the cross-sectional variation in discounts across 60 RELPs using characteristics of each partnership. Among a holdout sample of 41 RELPs, the model provides forecasts of discounts that are superior to assuming no discount or applying a mean discount to all partnerships. Discounts are greatest for RELPs with low current yields, low leverage and high trading ranges for their market prices.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

The Strategic Role of Listing Price in Marketing Real Estate: Theory and Evidence

The seller of a real estate property and his broker have two primary goals: to sell the properly for as high a price as possible and as quickly as possible. While these are separate objectives, they are closely related through the listing price of the seller. The listing price affects how long it takes to find a buyer (i.e., Time On the Market = TOM), and TOM influences the price that results from the bargaining between the seller and the buyer. This leaves the seller and his agent with an important question: What is the optimal price to be asked for the property? The objective of this research is to provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of listing price on TOM and the transaction price.     

Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell–Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets.     

Capital Asset Pricing and Real Estate Valuation*

This paper examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model with respect to its implications for real estate investment analysis and appraisal. The derivation of the CAPM, and theoretical problems with it, are discussed, along with its empirical validation. The similarities and differences between real estate and securities markets are evaluated. Alternative models to the CAPM are presented, followed by the conclusions.     

Institutional Investment,Asset Illiquidity and Post‐Crash Housing Market Dynamics

We examine institutional investors’ entry into the equity side of the single‐family detached housing market using an asset illiquidity framework. We find that institutional investors purchased owner‐occupied houses after the real estate crisis for approximately 6.3–11.8% less than owner‐occupiers. The large discount was in addition to distressed sale and cash purchase discounts which, when combined, highlight the low liquidation value for owner‐occupied housing. The results suggest that asset illiquidity is an important cost of leverage in the owner‐occupied housing market.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Auction versus Negotiated Sale: Evidence from Real Estate Sales

We offer a theoretical and empirical comparison of auctions and negotiated sales. We first build a simple model to show that auctions generate a higher relative price than negotiated sales when demand for the asset is strong, when the asset is more homogeneous and when the asset attracts buyers with higher valuations. Using data from property sales in Singapore, we find support for our theoretical predictions. In addition, we find that auctions do not necessarily generate a higher price premium for foreclosed properties than for nonforeclosed properties.     

Loss Aversion and Anchoring in Commercial Real Estate Pricing: Empirical Evidence and Price Index Implications

Loss aversion behavior plays a major role in the pricing of commercial properties, and it varies both across the type of market participants and across the cycle. We find that sophisticated and more experienced investors are at least as loss averse as their counterparts and that loss aversion operated most strongly during the cycle peak in 2007. We also document a possible anchoring effect of the asking price in influencing buyer valuation and subsequent transaction price. We demonstrate the importance of behavioral phenomena in constructing hedonic price indices, and we find that the impact of loss aversion is attenuated at the aggregate market level. This suggests that the pricing and volume cycle during 2001–2009 was little affected by loss aversion.     

Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns

This paper examines the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market microstruc-ture and its relationship to stock returns. When compared with the general stock market, REIT stocks tend to have a lower level of institutional investor participation and are followed by fewer security analysts. In addition, REIT stocks that have a higher percentage of institutional investors or are followed by more security analysts tend to perform better than other REIT stocks. Our results seem to confirm Jensen's ( 1993 , p. 868) proposition that ownership structure (that is, who owns the firm's securities) affects the value of the firm. Our findings also have implications about the well documented phenomenon that the financial performance of Commingled Real Estate Funds (CREFs) is better than that of REITs.     

Corporate Transparency and Firm Growth: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

Using a panel data set of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), we find corporate transparency to be positively associated with REIT growth. These results suggest that greater transparency facilitates firm growth by relaxing information‐based constraints on external financing. The magnitude of this effect is larger in the equity market than in the debt market. Moreover, the sensitivity of investment to cash flows is decreasing in transparency, evidence that transparency relaxes liquidity constraints. Finally, we find more transparent REITs are less likely to crash.     

Real Estate Values, Federal Income Taxation, and the Importance of Local Market Conditions

This article develops an income property valuation model that explicitly incorporates the effects of local market conditions. In particular, the model allows real rents to respond to a change in tax law, or to any exogenous shock to the system, with the dynamics of the rent change over time dependent upon current local supply and demand conditions and on the expected rate of economic growth in the local economy. Application of the model to an analysis of reduced capital gain taxation demonstrates that a partial reversal of TRA86's real estate provisions would disproportionately benefit those markets, and related lending institutions, which are most in need of a bolstering of real estate values.     

The Housing Market and Real Estate Brokers

The major development in this paper concerns the failure, in earlier studies, to consider interaction between alternative methods of arranging sales in the housing market. A seller may market a house by direct negotiations with buyers, without the intermediation of real estate brokers, or by listing the house with a broker. A rational seller would choose the option which offers the higher expected return on the house. In a sequence of models we argue that the seller's option of a method of sale induces competitive pressure in the choice of the commission rate by the broker. We also consider the split rate in a multiple listing system, ease of entry of brokers and the cartel hypothesis as applied to brokers. We conclude that the competitive pressure of direct negotiations between sellers and buyers, relative free entry of brokers and the inappropri-ateness of the cartel hypothesis cast serious doubt about a general consensus of opinion that the brokerage system is characterized by price fixing, excessive commissions and excessive marketing costs.     

Asset Allocation and the Performance of Real Estate Mutual Funds

We examine the performance of real estate mutual funds during January 1991–December 1997. As a group, the sampled funds outperformed the Wilshire Real Estate Securities Index on a risk-adjusted basis by more than 5 percentage points annually. We attempt to explain these surprising findings by examining the fund's asset allocations across stocks, bonds and real estate property types using Sharpe's (1992) effective-mix test. We find that all of the superior performance is attributable to fund managers' decisions to overweight outperforming property types (apartments and health care) relative to the Wilshire Real Estate Securities Index weights. Performance of the funds matches a multiple-property-type benchmark that takes account of the fund's exposure to each property type. Therefore, real estate funds demonstrated superior allocation across property types, but neither superior nor inferior selection within property type, during 1991–1997. Our findings emphasize the importance of asset allocation for real estate mutual-fund performance.     

资产价格波动与实体经济稳定研究

资产价格波动影响实体经济的程度与机制,一直备受关注。与国内其他相关研究相比,本文在样本选择上突出了资产价格波动影响消费和投资的针对性。通过构建引入资产价格的局部均衡分析模型和IS-LM扩展模型,本文采用现代时间序列分析的ADF检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen协整检验、VECM检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等多种方法进行研究,揭示了我国资产价格波动与实体经济稳定之间的相关性、因果关系、影响程度、影响过程和影响机制。     

Price Dispersion and Price Discrimination: Empirical Evidence from a Spot Market for Water

This note shows the existence of price dispersion and pricediscrimination in a spot market for water.Several behaviors contributing to this dispersion/discrimination arefound for both the seller and buyer in this relatively competitive market,and examples are given of each. Using some previous theoretical work,the common thread linking the differing behaviors is shown to bediffering levels of information and search costs.     

Price Controls and Market Structure: Evidence from Gasoline Retail Markets

In this paper we study the effect of price floor regulations on the organization and performance of markets. The standard interpretation of the effects of these policies is concerned with short‐run market distortions associated with excess supply. Since price controls prevent markets from clearing, they lead to higher prices. While this analysis may be correct in the short‐run, it does not consider the dynamic equilibrium consequences of price controls. We demonstrate that price floor regulations can have important long‐run effects on the the structure of markets by crowding them and creating endogenous barriers to entry for low‐cost retailers. Moreover, we show that these factors can indirectly lower productivity and possibly even prices. We test this in the context of an actual regulation imposed in the retail gasoline market in the Canadian province of Québec and show that the policy led to more competition between smaller/less efficient stations. This resulted in lowered sales, and, despite the reduction in efficiency, did not increase prices.     

The Real Estate Brokerage Market: A Critical Reevaluation

This paper presents an analysis of the theories and evidence regarding the structure and performance of the market for real estate brokerage services. Some of the theoretical models found in the literature appear to suffer from logical inconsistencies, while others lack empirical support for their underlying assumptions and/or their predictions of market inefficiencies. Moreover, several important legal and institutional changes that have occurred recently have not been given sufficient attention in the existing literature.
Although some new evidence on this market is presented here, additional empirical research is warranted in at least two areas: the current pricing structure and the underlying production and cost functions of the real estate brokerage industry.     

The Disciplining Effect of Concern for Referrals: Evidence from Real Estate Agents

Real estate agents rely on clients for referrals to generate future business; this article examines whether concern for referrals disciplines agents. We compare results for sellers who move to another area (and are less likely to provide referrals) with results for sellers who remain in the area (and are more likely to provide referrals). We find that moving‐away sellers’ houses have a higher sale rate, sell faster and sell for less (even after controlling for moving‐away sellers’ greater impatience). We also provide evidence that the disciplining effect of concern for referrals is stronger for agents who place a greater value on reputation. Finally, among sellers who are better at evaluating and monitoring agents, we see less of the high sell rate, low sale‐price effect.