商业银行经济资本配置——理论模型与案例研究

近年来,经济资本管理作为优化资源配置、实施全面风险管理的核心工具,在国际先进银行中得到广泛应用。通过经济资本可以量化各业务单元的风险水平,计算抵御风险所需的资本数量,银行决策层可据此调整风险容忍度与发展战略,制定更为科学、合理、清晰的政策组合,确保银行价值最大化目标的实现。本文阐述了商业银行经济资本配置的路线、流程和数理模型,并结合案例进行了更为深入的实证分析。     

经济资本配置与操作风险管理

对我国的商业银行来说,操作风险管理历来是一个薄弱环节,而针对操作风险的经济资本配置更是一个"盲区",引起业界的广泛关注.本文在巴塞尔新资本协议的框架下,从理论和实务两个方面,探讨了关于操作风险的经济资本计量模型、配置方法与管理流程,并结合我国银行业的实际情况,提出了一个较为可行的操作风险经济资本管理的实施路线.     

Economic Capital Allocation Derived from Risk Measures

Abstract

We examine properties of risk measures that can be considered to be in line with some “best practice” rules in insurance, based on solvency margins. We give ample motivation that all economic aspects related to an insurance portfolio should be considered in the definition of a risk measure. As a consequence, conditions arise for comparison as well as for addition of risk measures. We demonstrate that imposing properties that are generally valid for risk measures, in all possible dependency structures, based on the difference of the risk and the solvency margin, though providing opportunities to derive nice mathematical results, violates best practice rules. We show that so-called coherent risk measures lead to problems. In particular we consider an exponential risk measure related to a discrete ruin model, depending on the initial surplus, the desired ruin probability, and the risk distribution.     

商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置：方法与差异

我国商业银行经济资本计量方法都是基于巴塞尔监管资本要求,却忽略或无法准确衡量不良贷款的经济资本问题。事实上,商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置和正常贷款是不同的。文章利用解析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法对三类具有不同粒度构成的不良贷款组合进行计算、分析和比较。结果表明,贷款组合分散化程度越高,损失分布与正态分布越接近,此时适合采用解析法计算经济资本。当贷款组合分散化程度较低但不含支配型贷款时,采用解析法和模拟法所得结果相差并不大。但是当组合含支配型贷款时,损失分布与正态分布出现较大偏离,模拟法更加适用。另外,贷款组合所需的经济资本量与贷款组合的分散程度大小一般呈负相关。     

金融发展、边界资本配置与经济增长

传统金融发展理论认为,金融发展以提高社会资本配置效率促进经济增长。但 是,该理论忽略了国民经济需要产业部门协调发展的事实,使得央行的结构信贷政策受到质 疑。本文针对这一理论缺陷提出“边界资本配置效率”的概念,并通过实证研究发现：我国金 融发展对经济增长的促进作用,不仅表现在总量上,而且表现在结构上,即央行的结构信贷政 策整体有效。上述结论有助于央行完善实施定向降准政策的商业银行筛选标准。     

Venture Capital and Capital Allocation

I show that venture capitalists' motivation to build reputation can have beneficial effects in the primary market, mitigating information frictions and helping firms go public. Because uninformed reputation‐motivated venture capitalists want to appear informed, they are biased against backing firms—by not backing firms, they avoid taking low‐value firms to market, which would ultimately reveal their lack of information. In equilibrium, reputation‐motivated venture capitalists back relatively few bad firms, creating a certification effect that mitigates information frictions. However, they also back relatively few good firms, and thus, reputation motivation decreases welfare when good firms are abundant or profitable.     

Optimal Capital Allocation Principles

This article develops a unifying framework for allocating the aggregate capital of a financial firm to its business units. The approach relies on an optimization argument, requiring that the weighted sum of measures for the deviations of the business unit's losses from their respective allocated capitals be minimized. The approach is fair insofar as it requires capital to be close to the risk that necessitates holding it. The approach is additionally very flexible in the sense that different forms of the objective function can reflect alternative definitions of corporate risk tolerance. Owing to this flexibility, the general framework reproduces several capital allocation methods that appear in the literature and allows for alternative interpretations and possible extensions.     

Egalitarian Equivalent Capital Allocation

We apply Moulin's notion of egalitarian equivalent cost sharing of a public good to the problem of insurance capitalization and capital allocation where the liability portfolio is fixed. We show that this approach yields overall capitalization and cost allocations that are Pareto efficient, individually rational, and, unlike other mechanisms, stable in the sense of adhering to cost monotonicity.     

关于运用经济资本分析方法推进农业银行业务增长方式转变的调研报告

经济资本已不再是虚拟的资本概念，而是具有实际操作性、覆盖范围极其广泛的管理指标，这一管理指标正自上而下渗透到基层。为了切实了解经济资本在基层行的实施情况，本文通过对襄樊分行经济资本占用情况的实地调查，认真分析了实施经济资本管理以来对业务经营产生的影响及存在的问题和难点，并就二级分行如何运用经济资本管理方法推进业务增长方式转变提出了针对性建议。     

A Dynamic-Programming Approach to Multiperiod Asset Allocation

Academicians and practitioners recently have focused a great deal of attention on the issue of retirement asset allocation. However, research on the academic side typically has assumed a static allocation of a fixed amount over the investor's lifetime, while the advice on the practitioner side has been largely ad hoc in nature. Moreover, both academics and practitioners often fail to link allocations to the individual's attitude toward risk. This paper uses several performance measures that incorporate the individual's aversion to risk and finds the allocations in the year before retirement that maximize the expected value of those performance measures. It then uses a dynamic programming procedure to roll back one year at a time to determine optimal allocations for previous years as well. We find that the traditional advice that young investors should invest more heavily in equity (with a gradual shift to more debt as they near retirement) indeed is correct, and in fact the optimal equity allocation is even higher than commonly suggested. Deviations of the growth in an individual's income from a long-term national average did not seem to significantly affect the optimal allocations. The optimal allocations, however, vary widely as a function of (1) investor attitudes toward risk and (2) accumulated savings to date. These results suggest greater care should be taken to assess and incorporate these factors into the asset-allocation decision.     

我国资本配置效率影响因素的实证分析

本文选取我国各省1991-2008年的数据,构建面板数据,以投资效果系数作为测度资本配置效率的指标,通过对金融发展等影响资本配置效率的因素进行实证检验,得到以下结论：我国自1991年至2008年期间,资本配置效率基本处于持续下降状态,除资本配置效率与银行贷存比和进出口总额成正比之外,其他因素如外商直接投资、政府对经济的干预、非国有经济的发展和基础设施等因素对资本配置效率均主要起负面作用。     

Capital Allocation in Financial Firms

This paper develops a theory of capital allocation in financial intermediaries where the cost of "risk capital" is a critical consideration. The implication for capital budgeting is that financial firms should use a modified NPV rule in which projects are valued by calculating the NPV of cash flows using marketdetermined discount rates and then subtracting a deadweight cost of capital that reflects the project's marginal contribution to firm-wide risk.
By taking account of deadweight costs—mainly monitoring and moral hazard costs associated with having too little equity capital as well as "free cash flow" agency costs and higher taxes associated with having too much—the capital allocation model predicts that financial firms will diversify across businesses with similar deadweight costs. Such diversification reduces the cost of risk capital for the individual businesses, thereby creating more profitable investment opportunities at the margin and enabling the businesses to operate on a larger scale. The authors note that their model has similarities to but also important differences from the standard applications of RAROC models.     

Capital Allocation Using the Bootstrap

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of the bootstrap in capital allocation. In particular, for the distortion risk measure (DRM) class, we show that the exact bootstrap estimate is available in analytic form for the allocated capital. We then theoretically justify the bootstrap bias correction for the allocated capital induced from the concave DRM when the conditional mean function is strictly monotone. A numerical example shows a tradeoff exists between the bias reduction and variance increase in bootstrapping the allocated capital. However, unlike the aggregate capital case, the variance increase of the bias-corrected allocated capital estimate substantially outweighs the benefit of bias correction, making the bootstrap bias correction at the allocated capital level not as useful. Overall, the exact bootstrap without bias correction offers an efficient method for determining allocation over the ordinary resampling bootstrap estimate and the empirical counterpart.     

A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio

This paper proposes a new method to a bond portfolio problem in a multi-period setting. In particular, we apply a factor allocation approach to constructing the optimal bond portfolio in a class of multi-factor Gaussian yield curve models. In other words, we consider a bond portfolio problem in terms of a factors’ allocation problem. Thus, we can obtain clear interpretation about the relation between the change in the shape of a yield curve and dynamic optimal strategy, which is usually hard to be obtained due to high correlations among individual bonds. We first present a closed form solution of the optimal bond portfolio in a class of the multi-factor Gaussian term structure model. Then, we investigate the effects of various changes in the term structure on the optimal portfolio strategy through series of comparative statics.     

岗位竞争条件下的个人人力资本投资行为分析

在分割的劳动力市场前提下,个人人力资本投资具有岗位竞争优势,并对他人造成了负的挤出效应.因此,个人动态最优化的均衡结果不符合社会帕累托最优.这一假说能够合理解释当前中国居民人力资本投资需求强烈这一典型化事实,并为中国公共教育政策调整提供了一定的政策依据.     

股票流动性与企业资本配置效率

本文从市场微观结构的角度,研究我国上市公司股票流动性和资本配置效率之间的经验关系,发现股票流动性有助于降低企业非效率投资,这种负相关关系具体表现为流动性有助于缓解投资不足并抑制过度投资;进一步研究表明,股票流动性主要通过降低代理成本和提升股价信息含量等机制改善资本配置效率。本文研究结论表明,只有继续优化股权结构与公司治理、规范信息披露制度并加强内幕交易打击力度,才能增强市场流动性并提高资本配置效率。     

Capital Allocation for Portfolio Credit Risk

Capital allocation rules are derived that maximize leverage while maintaining a target solvency rate for credit portfolios where risk is driven by a single common factor and idiosyncratic risk is fully diversified. Equilibrium conditions ensure that capital allocations depend on interest earnings as well as credits’ probability of default, endogenous loss given default, and asset correlation. Capitalization rates exceed those estimated using Gaussian credit loss models. Results demonstrate that credit risk is undercapitalized by the Basel II AIRB approach in part because of ambiguities regarding the definition of loss given default. An alternative proposed capital rule removes this bias.