Do Decomposed Financial Ratios Predict Stock Returns and Fundamentals Better?

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios, which include dividend‐price ratios, earnings‐price ratios, and book‐to‐market ratios, by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess returns and fundamentals. Cyclical components predict increases in future stock returns, while stochastic trend components predict declines in future stock returns in long horizons. This helps explain previous findings that financial ratios in the absence of decomposition find weak predictive power in short horizons and some predictive power in long horizons. We also find both components predict fundamentals.     

How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns

We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms’ monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information. Only passive net buying follows negative returns, consistent with traders providing liquidity and benefiting from the reversal of transitory price movements. These actions contribute to market efficiency.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as such analyses may bias the results. We use a time series approach and thus create a level playing field to compare the predictability of the two asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMA and ARMA–EGARCH models and evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results, based on daily data for the 1990–2007 period, show that securitized real estate returns are generally more predictable than stock returns in countries with mature and well established REIT regimes. ARMA–EGARCH models are found to have portfolio outperformance potential even in the presence of transaction costs, with generally better results for securitized real estate than for stocks.     

Is Financial Flexibility a Priced Factor in the Stock Market?

This paper develops a factor analysis–based measure for shifts in corporate financial flexibility (FFLEX) that can be observed from public accounting information. Companies that experience positive shifts in FFLEX are associated with higher future investment growth opportunities. We show that FFLEX is a robust determinant of future stock returns. Firms that have increased their financial flexibility are associated with lower stock returns in the subsequent period. A zero‐cost return portfolio produces a significant positive monthly premium of 0.69%, which is driven by covariance (risk). Risk inherent in the flexibility factor is not explained away by either prominent pricing characteristics or factors.     

Will Order Imbalances Predict Stock Returns in Extreme Market Situations? Evidence from China

This article examines the relation between order imbalances and stock returns in China during the extreme market situations in 2007 and 2008. We find that order imbalances are positively and significantly related to contemporaneous stock returns but have limited predictability for subsequent returns in extreme market situations. Moreover, order imbalances significantly predict returns in normal market environment, especially for small stocks. This may be attributed to the investor structure in the Chinese market. A trading strategy utilizing the relation between order imbalances and stock returns generates positive returns. Overall, the information contents of order imbalances vary with the market environment.     

Are Dividends Disappearing or Shrinking? Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

This paper examines the dividend payment decision of publicly owned firms listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) from 1991 through 2006. There is a decline in the percentage of net dividend payers, accompanied by a decline in the aggregate level of net real dividends paid. Contrary to the situation in developed markets, earnings and dividends concentration have declined over the sample period. The first mandatory dividend payment regulation pushed some firms to collect the distributed dividends back through rights issues and this resulted in low net dividend payments. One of the striking findings of this paper reveals that a majority of ISE firms prefer dividend omissions rather than dividend reductions. Once a firm keeps paying dividends, it puts much effort into increasing dividend payments rather than reducing them. Further, dividend payment and reduction decisions are affected by the current earnings of the firm and financial crisis significantly explains both the dividend payment and dividend reduction decisions.     

Are Investors Concerned with Stock Market Upgrades? Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis

This study aims to examine the return and volatility responses to the announcement of stock market upgrades. It measures the direct effects of the recent Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) upgrade of the Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges from frontier to emerging markets by applying a nontraditional dummy variable event study using multivariate BEKK and DCC GARCH models. The results show clear evidence that contradicts the free information hypothesis and supports the price pressure hypothesis. Initially, the MSCI upgrade led to positive feedback from active investors due to the belief that this announcement will attract foreign institutional investors who play a vital role in improving the market’s performance.     

Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange

Using transactions and quotes data, we find significant magnet effects of price limit rules in Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC). Consistent with Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: a theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance 49, 237–254], we find that when limit hits are imminent, trading activities intensify with higher volume and volatility. More importantly, our transactions data allows us to examine the roles of institutions and individuals in the magnet effects in TSEC. There is strong evidence that magnet effects are caused by uninformed individuals, whereas if trade volumes are dominated by institutions, no significant magnet effect is found. The policy implication of our findings is that transparency and institutional participation can help to reduce the frequency of magnet effects.     

Are Information Attributes Priced?

A seminal model in finance links cost of equity capital to information precision, composition and dissemination. Using realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and the probability of an informed trade (PIN) to proxy for composition, prior research documents results consistent with the model's prediction regarding composition. Nonetheless, prior research that examines the construct validity cautions against the use of future realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and recommend r_{DIV_PREM} or r_{PEG_PREM} instead. The authors speculate but do not demonstrate how the results in existing research might be incorrect due to their use of realized returns. This paper provides such evidence. We find that the authors inference regarding PIN is dependent on their choice of realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital. We also estimate a more complete specification of the model that includes precision and dissemination, and we decompose PIN into its component parts to isolate that portion of PIN that varies with dissemination. These refinements allow for new insights regarding the veracity of the model's predictions. We conclude that cost of equity capital is increasing in composition, and decreasing in dissemination, and find some, albeit not conclusive support, for the prediction that cost of equity capital is decreasing in precision.     

Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence

Abstract:  This paper explores the predictive ability of the value spread in the UK. I replicate the US analysis of Liu and Zhang (2007) using UK data. In addition, I extend their work by exploring the predictive ability of the book-to-market, market-to-book and value spread on other size and value investment strategies, namely: large-caps only; small-caps minus large-caps (SML); value stocks only; growth stocks only; value stocks minus growth stocks (VMG) and a market portfolio that includes all stocks. The results are consistent with Liu and Zhang (2007) on the value spread. The value spread shows no predictive power for portfolio returns. Therefore, I show that the predictive power of book-to-market and market-to-book spreads depend on the portfolio formation strategies and the relative proportion of small-cap, large-cap, value and growth stocks in the portfolio.     

Rumor Clarification and Stock Returns: Do Bull Markets Behave Differently from Bear Markets?

This paper analyzes the effects of official rumor clarification on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions. The results show that the average cumulative abnormal return after the clarification event is significantly positive in a bull market, and significantly negative in a bear market. The results are robust across various types of rumors, including rumors of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring, and positive changes in a firm's operations. Moreover, in both bull and bear markets, investors are unable to distinguish between rumors that prove true and those that prove false, or between strong and weak rumor denial. Furthermore, investors are also unable to adjust their strategies accordingly.     

What Drives the Relationship Between Financial Flexibility and Firm Performance: Investment Scale or Investment Efficiency? Evidence from China

Financial flexibility helps improve firm performance. By using data from Chinese listed companies, we examine whether investment scale or investment efficiency drives the relationship between financial flexibility and firm performance via a special mediator testing method that is widely used in the psychology literature (Baron and Kenny, 1986). We find that financial flexibility has a significant and positive effect on both investment and firm performance. However, investment scale rather than investment efficiency seems to drive firm performance. This finding helps us understand that Chinese companies tend to emphasize investment expansion more than they do investment efficiency to improve firm performance.     

Financial constraints and stock returns — Evidence from Australia

Using multiple discriminant analysis, we construct an index that measures firms' external financial constraints in an Australian setting. We form portfolios of firms based on our financial constraints index and find that financially constrained firms earn lower return than their unconstrained counterparts. Moreover, stock returns of financially constrained firms are found to move together, indicating the potential existence of a financial constraints factor. Neither the variation nor the mean return of the constraints factor are well explained by existing asset pricing models, suggesting an independent role for our financial constraints factor in affecting stock returns.     

Do Capital Flows Matter to Stock and House Prices? Evidence from China

This article analyzes the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) and short-term capital flows, otherwise known as hot money, on stock and house prices in China. Empirical results, estimated using the local projections approach, reveal that a positive hot money net inflow shock significantly increases stock and house prices and the impacts persist for up to 1–2 months, while a positive FDI net inflow shock contributes significantly to lagged house price appreciation but has no effect on stock prices. This study also identifies negative pass-through effects of FDI net inflows on hot money net inflows and positive pass-through effects of stock prices on house prices.     

How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous.     

With Economic Integration Comes Financial Contagion? Evidence from China

China's economy has maintained a rapid growth rate over the past two decades; however, its stock market has exhibited a very different level of performance during financial crises. In this paper, we try to explain this phenomenon and answer two important questions: Is there financial contagion in China? Can economic integration aggravate financial contagion? We construct a composite index of economic integration by reviewing the incremental reform and opening-up process in China's financial markets. We utilize a dynamic conditional correlation model to capture the correlations between stock returns of China and those of other important markets around the world. The empirical results provide positive evidence for the aforementioned two questions.     

Financial Protectionism? First Evidence

We examine large public interventions in the financial sector, such as bank nationalizations and search for “financial protectionism,” a decrease in the quantity and/or an increase in the price of loans that banks from one country make to borrowers resident in another. We use a bank‐level panel data set spanning all U.K.‐resident banks between 1997Q3 and 2010Q1. After nationalization, foreign banks reduced their fraction of British loans by about 11% and increased their effective interest rates by about 70 basis points. In contrast, nationalized British banks did not significantly change either their loan mix or effective interest rates.     

Are Short Sellers Informed? Evidence from REITs

This paper uses intraday short sale data to examine whether short sellers of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are informed. We find strong evidence that short selling predicts future returns of REITs. Heavily shorted REITs significantly underperform lightly shorted REITs by approximately 1% over the following 20 trading days. This predictive relation holds for both small and large trades, but is stronger for large short trades. We also document a positive relation between shorting activity and volatility. Our results are consistent with the view that short sellers of REITs are informed and contribute to market efficiency by impounding information into prices.     

Real Estate Ownership, Leasing Intensity, and Value: Do Stock Returns Reflect a Firm’s Real Estate Holdings?

Little is known about the effects of real estate ownership and leasing on the stock return characteristics of public firms. In this study, we first examine the sensitivity of retail firm returns to a real estate factor over the period 1998?C2008. The retail industry is chosen because of the significant use of real estate in a typical retail firm??s production function. Consistent with our expectations, retail stocks exhibit positive real estate risk exposure, even after controlling for sensitivity to general market risk as well as other standard risk factors. The second part of our analysis examines whether the intensity of real estate ownership and the use of off-balance operating leases to finance real property holdings are reflected in the market and real estate betas of retail stocks. We find that greater use of off-balance sheet operating leases is associated with higher market betas. In fact, the use of operating leases appears to have a larger impact on sensitivity to market risk than does the use of on-balance sheet debt. Our findings also confirm our hypothesis that real estate intensive firms display significantly greater exposure to a real estate factor. Moreover, our results strongly suggest that investors are fully aware of the risk associated with off-balance sheet operating leases.