中国信用评级之殇

“一言兴邦、一言损邦”。标准普尔、穆迪,惠誉国际三大国际评级机构发挥的作用淋漓尽致,但其垄断地位也激起了其他国家的不满。除了已经起步的中国评级机构,欧盟、俄罗斯也正在组建自己的评级机构。     

贝塔斯曼的中国之殇

2008年7月3日，全球500强之一、世界六大传媒集团之一的贝塔斯曼集团宣布，终止其中国书友会业务，即上海贝塔斯曼文化实业有限公司在华的全部业务。 此前，6月13日，贝塔斯曼集团公开宣布，因财务状况不理想，集团旗下的北京贝塔斯曼二十一世纪图书连锁有限公司在全国18个城市的36家门店将于7月31日前全部关闭。     

中国汽车技术政策之殇

大众汽车赶在广州本田研发中心的开业的前一天公布其将与上海大众联合开发新一代中高级轿车，以此示好中国政府提出的自主开发、联合开发战略。[第一段]     

中国文化创意产业之殇

发展文化创意产业无疑是我国经济社会转型时期的一项重大战略决策．对于国计民生均有着不可估量的深远意义．但各地文化创意产业的“大跃进”式发展却偏离了原来的轨道．并引发人们对于产业泡沫的担忧。事实上．一些事实和数据已经表明．     

中国文化创意产业之殇

发展文化创意产业无疑是我国经济社会转型时期的一项重大战略决策,对于国计民生均有着不可估量的深远意义.但各地文化创意产业的大跃进式发展却偏离了原来的轨道,并引发人们对于产业泡沫的担忧.事实上,一些事实和数据已经表明,文化创意产业的泡沫已经开始显现,潜在的风险正在积聚,如不加以扭转,可能会造成灾难性的后果.     

出口之殇

温总理8月底在广东调研时提出,有针对性的采取措施推动出口稳定增长,一方面证实了出口颓势,一方面为即将到来的稳外需措施提供了想象的空间.     

信用之殇

毕竟在我们这个社会里,还有“关系”二字可以用作担当,这就是有中国特色的信用体系     

地下水之殇

日前,微博上流传,山东某地有企业用高压泵向深层地下水排污.随后媒体揭露,该事件并非个案,地下排污法其实在很多地方已悄然进行多年.消息一出,公众哗然,群情为之愤慨.我国淡水资源一直紧缺,人均占有量不足世界平均水平的1/4,地下水一直被认为是清洁稳定的水源补充.全国655个城市中,60％以上的城市使用地下水作为饮用水源;在北方地区,65％的生活用水、50％的工业用水和33％的农业灌溉用水来自地下水.然而,如今生命之泉在被侵蚀.2011年对全国200个城市地下水质监测中,较差、极差水质比例达55％,而根据国土资源部10年前的调查,我国197万平方公里的平原区,浅层地下水已不能饮用的面积达六成.     

吴英案：中国民间金融之殇

2012年1月18日,浙江省高院关于维持对吴英一审死刑判决引发的争议最近依然在发酵,法律界、经济界都接二连三地召开该案的研讨会,反思案件背后的诸多现象,并呼吁最高法院“刀下留人”？。最高法院亦对外表态,会审慎复核吴英案。     

东莞之殇

亚洲“四小龙”从外贸加工型经济中成功转型,为东莞提供样本意义,然而,它们曾经沉痛的代价或许成为东莞之殇的缘由.     

Cointegration and causality among the onshore and offshore markets for China's currency

China has taken steps to develop offshore markets for renminbi trading and to liberalize exchange-rate determination in its onshore market. We examine the interaction between onshore and offshore markets with attention to how the interaction has been affected by widening of the onshore trading band first in April 2012 and further in March 2014. Ties between the onshore and offshore markets were closest before the first band widening and steadily loosened thereafter. We further study the cointegration and lead-lag effects between offshore and onshore spot and forward markets and show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between any pair of them. Our results suggest stronger causality running from the spot onshore rate to the spot offshore rate than vice versa. Between the spot and forward markets, there is evidence of bidirectional linear and nonlinear causality, which implies foreign impulses have had an influence on the domestic market.     

傅天琳的果园四季

著名女诗人傅天琳"隐居"6年之后,以新作《六片落叶》摘得2006年度人民文学奖优秀诗歌奖.     

中国电子商务的未来

2012年12月3日,阿里巴巴集团在杭州宣布,截至2012年11月30日晚9点50分,其旗下淘宝和天猫的交易额本年度突破10000亿元.而2012年前三季度,内需对经济的拉动作用为105.5％,外需为-5.5％,经济发展己建立在扩大内需的战略基点上.在内需拉动经济增长的份额中,消费占55％,投资占50.5％,消费对经济增长的贡献率自2006年以来首次超过投资.     

中国高新技术产业的发展与新兴证券市场

我想就我国高新技术产业发展状况、我国创业投资发展状况和高新技术产业化为什么迫切需要创业板市场这三个方面,谈一谈自己的看法。 　　一、我国高新技术产业发展状况 　　1985年,中共中央国务院做出《关于科学技术体制改革的决定》,至今已经有 15年的时间了。在这 15年中,我国高新技术产业成长迅速。最近,党中央、国务院又做了《关于加强技术创新,发展高科技,实现产业化》的决定,高新技术产业得以进一步发展,并已经成为国民经济发展的一个重要支柱。高新技术产业发展取得成就可以概括为以下几个方面： 　　1、广大科技人员的创业…     

The political economy of China's future

The Chinese economy and political system have evolved, perhaps even matured, to a point whereby researchers within and without academia deem it appropriate to shift their attention from the immediate past, and of course the present, to the long‐term future. Institutional changes, particularly WTO accession, and the challenges posed by modern technology are reinforcing this trend. The more policy sensitive of the two most ambitious exercises in crystal ball gazing, it is argued here, has yielded fascinating insights but, inevitably so given the nature of the undertaking, the questions to which it gives rise match both quantitatively and qualitatively the answers provided.     

我国非正规金融的绩效分析

非正规金融在我国发展迅猛,已经引起理论界的高度关注。作为一种制度安排,非正规金融具有资源配置效应、资本积累效应、经济增长效应、竞争引致效应等经济效率和制度效率,但同时其自身的内在缺陷又影响了其效率的发挥,因此,必须引导和规范非正规金融的发展。     

The quality of China's GDP statistics

Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.     

The Determinants of China's Minimum Wage Rates

We use a highly disaggregated panel of macro data and minimum wages at the county level to investigate the processes behind minimum wage adjustments in China. Relying on random effects models, spatial econometrics techniques, and multilevel analyses, we document that a comparatively small number of economic variables – including the local price level and GDP per capita – are important determinants of minimum wage rates. Interactions between adjacent counties and counties of the same administrative type, and centralized mechanisms, particularly at the provincial level, also play an important role in explaining the variance in minimum wage rates across counties. Finally, we show that China's provinces are the key players for setting minimum wage rates and that, when they do so, they are not uniform in the way they weigh different economic variables.     

The main development strategies of the fishing industry complex in the Republic of Crimea

The article presents the results of predicting the production of aquatic bioresources in the Republic of Crimea, outlines the main strategies in the development of the regional fishing industry complex, and specifies the preferable techniques for industrial farming of aquatic bioresources to provide the plants composing the region’s fishing sector with domestically supplied raw fish and seafood, as well as the population with proteins of aquatic origin.     

The human cost of China's industrial growth

This paper examines whether industrial growth during economic development is associated with a high workplace fatality rate by using panel data from China. Controlling for provincial and year fixed effects, our estimations show that provincial industrial growth has a positive impact on the workplace fatality rate. We also find that both the growth of industrial labor productivity and the growth of industrial employment have an impact on workplace fatalities. Our instrumental variable fixed effects estimations, which control for simultaneity, show an even greater effect of industrial growth on the fatality rate. Our empirical findings suggest that the Chinese government ought to reconsider its growth-centered policies to save lives.