Futures markets and monetary policy

It has recently been argued that when differentially informed agents trade with one another monetary policy can influence the distribution of output by altering the information content of prices. This paper introduces a futures market into the Barro (1980) model and shows that under certain conditions prices may aggregate information in a manner such that differentially informed agents hold identical beliefs concerning aggregate market conditions. In such cases, monetary policy will be unable to influence the distribution of output. These results then serve as a backdrop for a more general discussion of the relationship between asset prices and the role of monetary policy.     

Futures studies and the policy sciences

Part of the current evaluation of the work of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies focuses on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences. Two crucial issues are focused on, first the justification and relevance of futures studies methodological approaches and their rigorous application to areas of public policy importance and second, the measures by which futures studies can be evaluated in the light of different time frames. Although there are differences between the policy sciences and futures studies approaches which require further analysis, there nevertheless is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The legitimacy of futures studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.     

Futures and the organization: The Hawaii Judiciary research programme

The author reports on the experiment to introduce a futures research programme at the Hawaii Judiciary in Honolulu. Its successes and failures and the problems and challenges associated with ‘futurizing’ an organization are discussed.     

Rent control: The British experience and policy response

Rent Control in Britain began in the First World War and has lasted, on and off, most of this century. There has been almost no new building for private rent since 1939. The private rented sector is small (8%), marginalized, delapidated, and unattractive.The British Government is enacting new legislation to reform all areas of rented housing. Rents of new lettings will be freely agreed (i.e., at market levels) between landlord and tenant. But the tenant has security of tenure, subject to renegotiating a new rent. The absence of any important tax incentives or other subsidy was an obstacle to revival even with market rents. But the Business Expansion Scheme proposal in the March 1988 budget has created considerable interest among investors.Paper for conference on Rent Control: The International Experience, John Deutsch Institute Roundtable, Kingston, Ontario, 2 September 1987     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

Futures research in Czechoslovakia

This is a review of futures studies in a socialist country where long-term forecasting has become institutionalised and serves the centralised policy making and planning. History of the subject, organisation of research and education, work on allocated research projects and on national economic forecasts, as well as its information network, are described.     

Operating and stock market performance of state-owned enterprise privatizations: The Spanish experience

We investigate the operating and stock market performance of Spanish state-owned enterprises (SOEs) privatized through public share issue offerings (SIPs) from 1990 to 2001, when the last SIP was conducted. We compare the performance of SOEs and privately-owned firms. We find significant operating improvements in Spanish SOEs after the privatization. Specifically, they show significant increases in income efficiency, real sales and employment. Spanish governments tried to minimize the foregone proceeds when selling SOE shares and underpriced them lower than private firms. We relate these results with the pressure of the Maastricht Treaty fiscal criteria, as well as lower information asymmetries between firms and investors. Finally, we do not find long-term abnormal stock market performance after SIPs.     

COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a global health and economic crisis to which governments responded with massive policy interventions. Using Brazil as a testing ground, we investigate the influence of the pandemic and ensuing policy interventions on local credit markets. First, we find that the pandemic has a significantly negative impact on local credit. Second, using a novel manually collected database on the staggered municipal government policy interventions, we show heterogenous effects of interventions: positive effects of soft interventions (e.g., social distancing and mass gathering restrictions) and late reopening, and negative effects of hard interventions (e.g., closure of non-essential services) and early reopening. Third, we find that state-owned banks grant more local credit than privately owned banks during the COVID-19 crisis but this difference is less pronounced than it was in the 2008 Financial Crisis. We confirm our results using pre-pandemic local political preference as instrument for policy interventions and orthogonalized policy intervention indicators, and in placebo tests.     

Futures research—stage three

Futures research now seems poised on a plateau to move into the third stage of its development—that of institutional design. The first two stages, the development of concepts and the raising of futures consciousness, have not resulted in any tangible improvements to the policymaking process as a means of improving the human condition. If stage three is to achieve this it must develop tools and concepts of increasingly practical value.     

Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’ expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.     

Futures research from the yam patch

Subsistence gardening continues to provide a meaningful way of life on the land for many peoples around the world. Those who seek to ‘help’ indigenous peoples, however, regardless of their motives, techniques, technologies, beliefs, or good intent, invariably interfere with and often destroy traditional ways of life. The interveners reduce the future prospects for those who do have skills and knowledge necessary to wrest a living from working the soil. The Nvhaal speaking people in Southwest Tanna, Vanuatu represent a case in point, for they have been subjected to so-called ‘improvements’ deriving from geological exploration, agricultural innovation, enhanced economic trade, exploitation of an export crop such as kava, improved health care, tourism, politicians, education, and Christian religions. As a result, lifestyles, skills and specialized knowledge bases are eroded, thereby endangering the long-term survival of these and by generalization, other indigenous people.     

Money market microstructure and monetary policy: the Indian experience

Money market microstructure has recently started drawing attention in the empirical literature on financial markets of emerging market economies. In the Indian context, a GARCH(1, 1) model shows that policy instruments impact bid–ask spreads in the money market. Volatility of bid–ask spreads seems to be more persistent in the overnight market than in longer maturity segments. The results also suggest the dominance of policy interventions over the market microstructure across the term structure of the Indian money market. Unanticipated policy actions can delay mean reversion and, therefore, the return to stability.     

Futures research and social decision making: Alternative futures as a case study

This article clarifies some basic features of futures research in order to make explicit the relation between futures research and social development in general as well as political planning and decision making in particular. Three paradigms for futures research are described and, as an example of an emancipatory futures research project, ‘Alternative futures’ will be introduced.     

Accounting research and policy making

This paper discusses the role of research information in policy making, describes some instances in which that information played an important role, and concludes with observations about ways to develop enhanced relationships between researchers and policy makers.     

货币政策透明度的新领域:政策路径的信息沟通

政策路径的信息沟通是货币政策透明度研究的一个新领域。目前绝大多数央行只公布当前的政策利率,对未来政策利率走势的预测很少提及。本文分析央行政策路径构建的基础和沟通方式,通过比较各国央行在政策路径沟通实践上的差异,探寻制约央行公布政策路径的原因。     

农业政策性金融国际经验借鉴

为弥补金融市场在农业领域的不足,并引导社会资金回流农村,许多国家设立了农业政策性金融机构,且政策性机构和商业性机构分设,使政策性金融能够及时根据国家宏观政策调整服务范围和领域。在我国金融体制改革和粮棉流通体制改革不断深化的背景下,如何充分发挥农发行的支农职能,有效推进现代农业发展,需要努力探索。国外农业政策性金融的发展经验,对于完善我国农业政策性金融的职能具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Futures research report card—quantity: A; quality: C; and impact: F

Futures research has at best only a slight influence on public and private sector decision-making. Bridging the wide gap between analysis and action means reexamining how we are looking and what we are looking at. The ability to deal with multiple, even conflicting, perspectives simultaneously and to focus on vital substantive problem areas should help. The traditional ‘rational actor’ approach must be augmented and balanced with organizational/societal and personal/individual perspectives. Priority attention should be placed on prevention of a nuclear holocaust, exploration of new social system alternatives, and probing of the next technological innovation cluster.