当前我国通胀预期的运行特征、态势及有效管理对策

通胀预期主体的分层性、通胀预期基础的混沌性、通胀预期过程的持续性、通胀预期强度的波动性是当前我国通胀预期的基本特征。近期国内通胀压力日益加大,强化通胀预期的因素不断涌现。为了防止严重通货膨胀局面的出现,短期内应坚决运用包含加息手段在内的多种货币政策工具收缩流动性,长期内则必须摆脱经济增长主要依靠政府投资驱动的模式,努力实现经济发展方式的根本转型。     

论国有企业兼并重组的预期与偏差

20世纪90年代以来,新一轮科技革命和产业革命正在发生,世界经济和中国经济都在经历着产业结构调整,以信息技术、生物技术等六大高科技领域为基础,全球经济正在兴起九大产业.这些新兴产业的兴起和发展,在推动整个经济发展的同时,也带动了传统产业的调整和升级.中国产业结构调整升级正进入一个关键时期.要实现我国产业结构调整的战略目标,就必须实现国有经济的战略性重组,而国有企业的并购重组又是实现国有经济战略性重组的关键.本文仅对国有经济战略性重组中的国有企业的并购、重组问题进行研究.     

Production of Chlorofluorocarbons in Anticipation of the Montreal Protocol

Anticipation of an International Environmental Agreement provides an incentive for countries to change their production behavior prior to negotiations in order to gain a favorable bargaining position. Increased historical production figures at the time of negotiations may influence the magnitude of the baseline from which cutbacks will be specified. In this paper we empirically measure the magnitude of such strategic production behavior in the case of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer of 1987. Due to data limitations we specify a two player Nash–Cournot game between the United States and the rest of the world. We find evidence of asymmetric strategic behavior, which resulted in a net increase of aggregate world chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) production.     

中国残疾预防的转折机会和预期分析

残疾社会负担迅速增加是推动我国尽快开展残疾预防工作的重要原因,而现代医学科技的发展使绝大部分残疾可防可控是开展残疾预防的必要条件。系统回顾了近30年来我国主要的残疾预防政策行动,总结了取得的成效和存在的问题,分析了我国残疾预防工作面临的新形势以及新的政策动向,提出了下一步残疾预防工作的四个重点,即提高认识、完善政策、加强行动、强化支持。     

预期对中国资本市场作用和影响的验证

中国资本市场预期问题有各种不同的表现形式.预期作用和影响测定的方法有多种.本文运用市值测定预期法和从上海、深圳两地证券投资者预期指数对资本市场投资的作用和影响的测定可以看出,预期在资本市场上是广泛起作用和影响的.中国居民储蓄率很高,难以转化为资本市场投资,资本市场投资需求不足并且经常剧烈波动,这些现象都有预期的作用和影响.若要解决这些问题,必须重视中国资本市场预期问题的解决.     

我国利率市场化的理性预期

充分竞争是竞争性价格形成的基础。在我国,由于国有商业银行对风险评价的变异、垄断地位的存在和对集团利益的追求,利率市场化很可能使利率全面扬;国有企业的固有行为特征使资金需求无利率弹性,在这种基础上的利率市场化会给国民经济造成极大的负面影响,结论是微观经济主体的市场化应先于利率市场化,至少应与利率市场化同步。     

The Policy Anticipation Hypothesis: Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market

In an era of increasingly transparent policy making by the Federal Reserve, market participants appear to interpret each economic announcement based on the implication for monetary policy. As a result, when macroeconomic news arrives economic agents revise their expectations of upcoming policy decisions and interest rates move accordingly. This article provides empirical support for this policy anticipation hypothesis utilizing the Federal funds futures market to proxy for policy expectations. The results indicate that once one controls for the role of policy anticipation the impact of many announcements on bond yields becomes statistically insignificant. (JEL E4 , E5 , G1 )     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

货币调控宣示方式与商业银行经营效率:预期引导的异质性效应

基于中国38家上市银行的非平衡面板数据,通过语境分类和词频分析,区分压制型和建设型两种调控宣示方式并构建相应代理指标,结合表内表外两种中介效应及SFA框架下的效率测算,对不同调控宣示方式对商业银行经营效率的影响进行系统研究.研究发现:(1)货币调控宣示会通过表内风险承担和表外业务扩张两个通道对商业银行的经营效率施加影响;(2)压制型调控宣示会形成显著的负向效率冲击,而建设型调控宣示则存在显著的正向效率影响;(3)不同货币调控宣示方式的异质性效果在表内业务影响和表外业务扩张通道同时存在.研究结果显示:一方面,商业银行经营效率会受到货币政策预期变化的制约,并呈现典型顺周期特征,由此需要改善运动式调控并尽可能平滑政策预期波动;另一方面,选择适当的货币调控宣示方式同样重要,采用建设型宣示方式来减缓对商业银行经营的预期冲击,有助于实现金融风险防范和金融效率提升的正反馈循环.     

广告创作与民族记忆的觉醒

广告的希望在于文化，广告掌握了文化就等于掌握了未来。广告是一种文化现象，被誉为“第八种文化”，它不可能离开所属的民族文化而存在。广告只有服从、吸收、融汇、折射民族文化，深植于民族文化的土壤，用最鲜活的民族语言，透过人类共同的心理表层，打入深藏在人类潜意识背后的“民族记忆”和“种族记忆”，对民族文化进行多维观照，才能被消费群体接受，才能达到诉求目的，唯如此才具有民族性，从而具有世界性。明确这一点，对广告实践很重要，它可以唤起广告人的文化意识和文化觉醒，指导广告人把现代广告与民族文化有机地结合起来，…     

管理的视角:组织资本及其投资

作为企业的一种独特生产资源,组织资本被视为影响公司绩效和增长的最重要因素之一.但它的无形特征以及对人的依赖性,使得这个经济学概念非常抽象,难以被清晰描述理解,这直接阻碍了将组织资本这一概念用于指导管理实践.本文试图建立一个分析框架,引入组织的记忆这一管理学的概念,来帮助研究者和管理者们从管理视角理解企业所拥有的组织资本这一重要资产,进而理解对组织资本的投资.     

Rethinking Long Memory and Structural Breaks in the Forward Premium

This paper documents new results that the ability of structural breaks to explain away non‐stationary long memory in the forward premium weakens considerably with higher‐frequency data. For daily data, removing structural breaks does not make non‐stationary long memory stationary, contrary to the evidence for monthly data reported in the recent literature. Simulating data on a daily basis, we show that using monthly data tends to overstate the importance of structural breaks, and obfuscate the true nature of persistence, in the forward premium. Our results thus corroborate earlier findings that long memory bears primary responsibility for the forward premium anomaly.     

Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking

We investigate the Hartwick rule for saving of a nation necessary to sustain a constant level of private consumption for a small open economy with an exhaustible stock of natural resources. The amount by which a country saves and invests less than the marginal resource rents equals the expected capital gains on reserves of natural resources plus the expected increase in interest income on net foreign assets plus the expected fall in the cost of resource extraction due to expected improvements in extraction technology. Effectively, depletion is then postponed until better times. This suggests that it is not necessarily sub-optimal for resource-rich countries to have negative genuine saving. However, in countries with different groups with imperfectly defined property rights on natural resources, political distortions induce faster resource depletion than suggested by the Hotelling rule. Fractionalised societies with imperfect property rights build up more foreign assets than their marginal resource rents, but in the long run accumulate less foreign assets than homogenous societies. Hence, such societies end up with lower sustainable consumption and are worse off, especially if seepage is strong, the number of rival groups is large and the country does not enjoy much monopoly power on the resource market. Genuine saving is zero in such societies. However, World Bank genuine saving figures based on market rather than accounting prices will be negative, albeit less so in more fractionalised societies with less secure property rights.     

敬悼邹谠老师

邹谠老师于1999年8月7日晚上7时30分(美国中西部时间)因心脏衰竭,逝世于芝加哥大学医院,享年80.噩耗传来,使我震惊,并深感痛惜.想不到去年8月下旬芝城一别,便成永诀.我永远失去了……     

记忆中的维特根斯坦肖像

马尔康姆反复强调了维特根斯坦坚持哲学与日常生活之间联系的重要性。这正是我最先得到的认识。我总是觉得很难相信：哲学质量完全独立于它对我们的生活所造成的差别。