当前城镇失业的特点与对策

９０年代由于社会主义市场经济体制的建立和企业劳动用工制度的改革，使城镇失业呈现出与过去不同特点，主要是隐性失业大于显性失业；男性失业人数多于女性；失业率虽不高，但就业压力不小；失业人员的总体素质不高。大量失业问题的存在严重地影响了我国经济的正常发展，也不利于企业竞争和经济效益的提高，解决失业问题刻不容缓．如何解决失业问题，作者认为首先要建立和完善社会保障体系；要把劳动用工自主权切实交给企业，以建立和发展劳动力市场；同时大力发展第三产业，发展就业服务体系，加强就业培训，为劳动者就业创造条件。     

累进性劳动所得税、失业波动与内生稳定器——一个动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

将累进性劳动所得税引入NKMP—DSGE模型中考察失业波动与累进性税收的宏观效应。贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,外生冲击对于就业与失业具有不同的冲击效应,因而忽略失业可能引起结论的偏误;失业的贝叶斯冲击分解结果表明,货币政策冲击是推动我国失业波动最重要的力量,并且我国劳动力市场存在显在的“失业回滞”。进一步,通过模型比较发现,累进性劳动所得税具有内生稳定器的作用。在失业问题日益严峻的背景下,采用对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制以降低失业,并使用内生稳定器缓和经济波动,将可能实现降低失业与缓和经济波动的双重效果。     

市场调节与政府干预相结合的就业观——对西方失业理论的分析

在经济全球化趋势下,一国经济的波动已经不仅仅只对本国就业产生影响了。由于我国人口总量世界第一,劳动力供给总量大大超过劳动力需求总量,解决失业是一个相当长时期内我国经济社会生活中的重要任务。西方失业理论从不同角度对失业现象进行了阐释,研究之必然有助于对我国失业问题认识的深化。     

市场调节与政府干预相结合的就业观——对西方失业理论的分析

在经济全球化趋势下,一国经济的波动已经不仅仅只对本国就业产生影响了.由于我国人口总量世界第一,劳动力供给总量大大超过劳动力需求总量,解决失业是一个相当长时期内我国经济社会生活中的重要任务.西方失业理论从不同角度对失业现象进行了闻释,研究之必然有助于对我国失业问题认识的深化.     

中国的就业问题及其对策

在未来的十几年,中国将面临严峻的总量性失业和结构性失业问题。总量性失业和结构性失业都会扩大城乡收入差距,不利于社会的安定团结和长期增长。结构性失业阻碍产业结构的升级和城乡二元经济结构的消除,从而不利于我国经济的长期增长。除了人口基数大之外,赶超战略是我国总量性失业和结构性失业的最主要原因。最后,本文提出了长期和短期的政策建议。     

当前中国失业问题新探

造成中国失业率上升的原因是多方面的 ,既有总量性、经济性、体制性等客观原因 ,也有观念性等主观原因。解决失业问题需要多管齐下 ,综合治理 ,特别要注意在发展经济、调整结构、完善失业保障制度、培育劳动力市场、加强对失业者的技术培训和转变失业者的就业观念等方面多做文章。     

浅谈失业问题解决方案

失业问题已经是全社会的关注焦点,而在众多的理论解决方案中,哪些才是真正的切实可行?本文从两个方面分析了当今社会失业问题的原因和解决方案,第一是高校毕业生失业的原因以及应对措施,第二是针对拉动消费和增加就业的两个方面。其中,提出一种有效解决失业问题的个人想法,即可以限制现有劳动力的工作时间,实行间接下岗制度来解决就业,同时增加社会劳动生产效率、实现贫富差距降低。     

关于健全失业保障制度以促进就业再就业的研究

文章分析了我国现行失业保障制度在促进就业再就业方面存在的问题,并就如何完善失业保障制度以促进就业再就业功能的实现提出了相应的对策建议,旨在寻求解决失业问题的有效途径。     

我国失业问题及其对策研究

人均资源短缺与劳动力总量相对过剩,是我国现阶段一个基本国情。随着我国经济体制改革的不断深入和经济增长方式的逐步转变,我国的失业问题日益凸显并引起整个社会的高度关注,已构成对我国今后经济发展和社会稳定的尖锐挑战。为了能够正确认识这一问题,本文以目前中国的失业现状为依据,从人口、企业、劳动者、科技等多方面找出原因,并试着提出了治理失业和解决就业问题的政策措施。     

我国失业问题及其治理的财政政策

我国现阶段就业问题变得十分突出,政府如何通过财政政策促进就业问题的研究是一个重要的课题,通过分析我国失业状况,可发现我国的失业问题主要是由供给因素造成的,但也存在结构性问题。政府可通过稳健的财政政策去促进经济发展、加大对就业信息咨询、培训提供经费支持的力度、引导第三产业的发展,以达到治理失业问题的目的。     

Does accessibility to local public employment agencies matter? Answers from a French quasi-experiment

We question whether accessibility to local public employment agencies impacts exits from unemployment. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the residential location of jobseekers by using the unanticipated creation of a new agency in the French region of Lyon as a quasi-natural experiment. We use exhaustive and geo-located individual data on jobseekers and local public employment agencies. Contrary to past evidence based on aggregated data, we find no evidence that jobseekers with improved accessibility to the local public employment services experience an improvement of their probability of exiting unemployment. We however find evidence of transitory organizational effects. These findings strongly question the costly strategy of a fine distribution of local public employment agencies across the territory while suggesting that institutional issues are key.     

The Impact of Vocational Training on the Unemployment Duration

In this study, we estimate a semiparametric hazard model to assess the impact of vocational training on the duration of unemployment spells. Our research work is based on the data obtained from the District Labor Office in Słupsk, Poland from 1999 to 2007. We employ matching methods to take into account the potential sample selection problem, i.e., finding an adequate control group for the group of trainees. Therefore, we estimate a random-effects probit model for the likelihood of participation in a training program. The main question of this paper is whether the training significantly raises the transition rate from unemployment to employment in the short and the long run.     

企业用人导向下高校学生应具素质双向调查比较研究

随着大学生就业压力的加大,社会结构性失业比例的增加,将高校学生应具素质的研究视角从高校转向企业对于引导大学生成功就业具有重大意义。通过发放企业问卷和高校学生问卷,利用因子分析、综合评价法等统计学方法对调查数据进行比较研究,率先对企业用人导向下高校学生应具素质这一问题作出了回答。     

Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s

Abstract. This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. It therefore covers periods before and after the changes during the mid‐1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for older unemployed. The analysis is based on the IAB employment subsample containing administrative data for about 500,000 individuals. Since these data only partly reveal the unemployment duration in an economic sense, we use a narrow and a wide proxy for unemployment. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distribution of non‐employment durations for older unemployed. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs remained unchanged after the reforms. Our findings clearly show that many firms and workers used the more beneficial laws as a part of early retirement packages. Surprisingly, for those workers who found and accepted a new job, we do not observe a prolongation of their search periods to a sizeable extent.     

Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany

In this paper, we estimate the effect of different macro and micro variables on the distribution of unemployment duration in West Germany using censored quantile regressions. We analyze unemployment periods of more than 91,000 observations from the years 1981 to 1997 drawn from the IAB employment subsample. The latter is an administrative data set that is representative with respect to the socially insured workforce. Surprisingly, we find that the educational degree and variables indicating the macroeconomic environment such as the unemployment rate have a weak effect only. On the other hand, variables reflecting the (un-)employment history of an individual such as the length of tenure, recall to the same employer in the past, recent unemployment, and the position in the population income distribution before unemployment have the strongest effects on unemployment duration. We conclude that work history variables are the ones most suitable in characterizing the unemployment duration of an individual. From a methodological point of view, it is interesting that some regression coefficients have a different sign depending on the quantiles of the unemployment duration distribution. This clearly is a violation of the classical proportional hazard assumption which is very common in unemployment duration analysis.     

Does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes?

In this paper, we examine the disincentive effects of the public employment service on the search effort of unemployed workers and on their exit rate from unemployment. For that purpose, we specify a structural search model with fixed and variable costs of search in which unemployed workers select their optimal search intensity given the exogenous arrival rate of job contacts coming from the public employment agency. Because the theoretical effect of an increase in this exogenous job contact arrival rate on the structural exit rate from unemployment is ambiguous, we estimate this model using individual unemployment duration data. Our results show that the exit rate from unemployment increases with the arrival rate of job contacts obtained by the public employment service, especially for low-educated and low-skilled workers. They also show that the search effort is more costly for low-educated women and low-skilled adult unemployed workers. This last result suggests that a public employment agency that matches searchers and employers is beneficial, in the sense that it saves searchers in terms of search costs they would otherwise bear.     

A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application

MONASH is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. This article describes a new labour-market specification for MONASH in which people are allocated in year t to categories according to their labourmarket activities in year t – 1. People in each category plan their labour supplies by solving an optimisation problem. Via these problems, we introduce the assumption that people in employment categories supply labour more strongly to employment activities than do people in unemployment categories. Thus we find that employment-stimulating policies in t – 1 increase labour supply in t by shifting the composition of the labour force in t in favour of employment categories and away from unemployment categories. We illustrate this idea by using MONASH to simulate the Dawkins proposal to combine a freeze on award wage rates with tax credits for low-wage workers in low-income families. We find that the Dawkins policy would generate a significant short-run increase in employment. With the increase in employment generating an increase in labour supply, the employment benefits of the policy would persist over many years. However, in the long run, we would expect the effect of the policy on aggregate employment to be small and to depend on how the policy affected the ratio of real after-tax wage rates to unemployment benefits.     

The Contribution of Employment Separation to Teenage Unemployment*

In this paper we analyze the relationship between labour market flows and the unemployment rate of teenagers compared to males aged 25–54 years. For 1979–80 teenagers separated from employment at approximately five times the rate of adult males and this was the principal factor associated with their high rate of unemployment. Job-finding success from unemployment and from outside the labour force is approximately the same for each labour market group. A special feature is the analysis of gross flows between full-time and part-time employment. Labour market flows involving part-time employment account for little of the unemployment rate difference.     

马克思就业理论与西方就业理论比较研究

对中国失业的研究已是无法回避的一个问题,而寻求理论支持则是进行研究的一个重要方向。检索就业理论的资料,可以发现最有代表性的就业理论是马克思就业理论和西方就业理论。因此,对这两种就业理论加以比较,理解它们形成的不同背景和分析路径,对比它们不同的内容体系,可以发现它们其实发掘的只是失业的一个方面,遵循的是失业发生、发展的一条路径。因此,在比较中更全面地理解失业,并且可以为研究我国的失业提供某些启示。     

Input Demand and the Short- and Long-Run Employment Thresholds: An Empirical Analysis for the German Manufacturing Sector

The concept of the 'employment threshold' plays an important role in the public discussion of unemployment. The employment threshold is defined as that growth rate of output necessary to keep employment constant despite the continuous rise in productivity. It is related to the Okun coefficient which describes the relationship between the changes in output and unemployment. Many contributions to this debate give the impression that the employment threshold is more or less a structural characteristic independent of economic variables. In this paper we derive short- and long-run employment thresholds from an input demand system and show empirically that they depend on factor prices and capital accumulation. Higher wage rates raise the employment threshold and reduce the probability that a positive output shock will increase employment.