A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan

In Japan, retirement is a gradual process that transpires over a particularly long period of time. Using large scale micro-level datasets from the Survey of Employment of the Elderly compiled by the Japanese government, we provide some stylized facts on the development of retirement behavior since the 1980s and explore factors affecting the individual retirement decision. First, we observed a general declining trend in the proportion of retired individuals aged 55–59 (especially females) while the proportion of retired individuals aged 65–69 (especially males) increased. Second, the survival analysis on actual retirement age shows that those who are more educated are more likely to retire earlier and those who experienced mandatory retirement are less likely. Third, the survival analysis on the expected retirement age shows that individuals who are satisfied with their job in terms of nonmonetary rewards are less likely to retire earlier.     

Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform

In the early 1990s the Dutch labour unions and employer organisations agreed to transform the generous and actuarially unfair early retirement (ER) schemes into less generous and actuarially fair schemes that reward individuals for postponing retirement. The starting dates of these new ER programs varied by industry sector. In this study, we exploit this variation in starting dates to estimate the causal impact of the policy reform on early retirement behaviour. We use a large administrative dataset, the Dutch Income Panel 1989–2000, to estimate hazard rate models for the retirement age. We conclude that the policy reform has indeed induced workers to postpone retirement. Both the wealth effect (lower ER wealth) and the substitution effect (lower implicit taxes on retirement postponement) are significant, the latter being more substantial.     

Can Simple Informational Nudges Increase Employee Participation in a 401(k) Plan?

We report results from a field experiment in which a randomized subset of newly hired workers at a large financial institution received a flyer containing information about the employer's 401(k) plan and the value of contributions compounding over a career. Younger workers who received the flyer were significantly more likely to begin contributing to the plan relative to their peers in the control group. Many workers do not participate in their employers' supplemental retirement savings programs, even though these programs offer substantial tax advantages and immediate returns due to matching contributions. From a survey of new hires, we find that many workers choose not to contribute to the plan because they have other financial priorities. However, some nonparticipants lack the financial literacy to appreciate the benefit. These findings indicate that simple informational interventions can nudge workers to participate in retirement saving plans and enhance individual well‐being and retirement income security.     

The effects of Japanese social security retirement benefits on personal saving and elderly labor force behavior

Japanese annual time-series data covering the period 1951 to 1982 reveals that changes in the program of social security retirement benefits have substantial influence on personal saving and retirement behavior. The empirical results show that social security retirement benefits depress personal saving by approximately 13,500 yen per capita in real terms from 1951 to 1982. However, declining labor force participation of the elderly (i.e., earlier retirement) stimulates personal saving by an estimate 500 yen over the same period. The study finds that the benefit effect dominates the retirement effect. The net effect is consequently a downward impact on personal saving. The parameter estimates indicate that the retirement behavior induced by social security retirement benefits tends to become more sensitive and responsive to a rise in the benefits. In addition, this study has identified a negative interdependency between the personal saving and labor retirement behaviors; that is, an individual saves more before retirement if he expects to stay a shorter time in the labor market, and vice versa. Moreover, personal saving influenced by retirement behavior tends to become less and less responsive, though the results indicate a relatively large response, and although very small, the retirement behavior gradually becomes more responsive to changes in personal saving.     

缩小数字鸿沟对退休再就业是否有帮助

本文使用CHARLS 数据构建了Logit 模型，以数字鸿沟为核心解释变量，结合个人特征、社会保障和对外经济支持等方面分析了数字鸿沟对退休再就业的影响。研究发现，其中老年数字鸿沟能够减少退休后的受雇就业，导致更多的退休人口选择不就业，但是对退休后是否自雇就业没有影响。综合而言，缩小老年数字鸿沟对退休再就业有显著的积极作用。此外，男性退休后更倾向于受雇就业，女性通常更需要照顾家庭。年龄对退休后受雇就业和自主经营具有负向影响，且影响程度相当。健康状况和社交活动参与对退休再就业也有显著影响。基于研究结果，本文提出相应的对策建议。     

Are immigrants really attracted to the welfare state? Evidence from OECD countries

This paper examines the impact of fiscal policies on both the size and educational levels of immigrants in destination countries. We find that whether or not a country’s policies are attracting highly educated immigrants goes beyond the issue of the “welfare state”. Immigrants are making important distinctions between the different benefits provided by a receiving country’s government. Health and education spending are found to have a positive impact on the education levels of immigrants while the reverse is true for unemployment and retirement benefits. Welfare programs are found to be insignificant once other government programs/taxes and other factors are taken into account. These results imply that countries should be less concerned about whether they are a “big government” with regards to attracting immigrants, and more concerned with what types of benefits they offer.     

The secular behavior of aggregate retirement flows

Summary and Conclusions This paper has presented estimated time-series of retirement flows from the labor force for men and women aged 55–64 and 65 and over. These results are a useful addition to labor force participation rates as a means of studying secular trends of aggregate labor market behavior of older workers. Because retirement rates are independent of people who have not been in the labor force, they are better suited to secular studies of aggregate retirement behavior than are labor force participation rates. These estimated time-series have been used to look for aggregate influences on the rates of retirement from the labor force over the period 1948–1977. While there are some tentative indications that macroeconomic conditions affect retirement flows, the important results concern the influence of Social Security retirement benefits. The results reported here clearly indicate that increased coverage and benefits have tended to increase retirement rates over the sample period. Elasticity estimates are large enough to suggest that the older labor force responds at a significant rate to changes in the Social Security program. This research was supported by Social Security Administration Grant No. 10-P-90543-4-02. The author is indebted to Robert Clark and Paul Johnson for support and criticism. Steve Gohmann provided greatly appreciated research assistance.     

The optimal delayed retirement age in aging China: Determination and impact analysis

Facing a deepening aging population, nations like China are calling for a gradually delayed retirement policy urgently. Based on the dynamic model of Miyazaki (2014), this paper first examines the difference between the agent's labor productivities in youth and old age (the age difference in labor productivity as defined below). We then establish an agent's optimal consumption model under the background of delayed retirement, and derive formulas to calculate the steady-state output per labor, wage rate, and rate of capital return. Based on the model, we propose a formula to determine the optimal delayed retirement age, which can optimize the government's delaying retirement policy. Moreover, we provide theoretical demonstrations and perform numerical simulations about how delayed retirement ages affect key variables such as the agent's optimal consumption and steady-state output per labor in the context of deepening population aging, and further analyze how the Chinese government determines the optimal delayed retirement age. Results are as follows: Firstly, extending the delayed retirement age will reduce the agent's optimal youth consumption, but increase the agent's optimal old-age consumption, life-time consumption, and the total consumption of economy in the current period. Secondly, the aging population problem is affected by both changes in the birth rate and the survival probability. From 2020 to 2100, the former is constantly declining in China, while the latter is gradually rising. Although these two drivers have different influences on the optimal delayed retirement age, the influence of a higher survival probability is greater, so aging postpones the optimal delayed retirement age in China. Thirdly, the degree of population aging and the agent's labor productivity of the elderly are two main factors affecting the optimal delayed retirement age. Although both factors present an increasing trend from 2020 to 2100, they have opposite implications: the former dominates the latter until 2075 and increases the optimal delayed retirement age. On the other hand, the inhibitory effect of the latter gradually increases and eventually dominates the former from 2075. Fourthly, under the cross influence of the above two factors, the optimal delayed retirement age in China shows an inverted U-shaped trend of rising initially and then decreasing after reaching the peak in 2075. Fifthly, we estimate that if the delayed retirement policy is adopted from 2025, it is reasonable to set the average annual delayed retirement time to two to three months. Finally, we propose measures and suggestions to mitigate the possible negative impacts of delayed retirement.     

如何发挥企业离退休干部作用问题研究

随着我国企业离退休干部工作的不断发展,离退休干部工作领域发生了深刻的变化,面临着许多新问题和新情况,如何让离退休干部既安度晚年,又让他们余热生辉,这将是企业离退休干部工作者面临的艰巨任务。     

Retirement and health: Evidence from China

One typical feature of China's pension system is that retirement is mandatory. By exploiting the exogenous change created by this mandatory retirement policy, we use the mandatory retirement age as an instrument for retirement status to examine the effect of retirement on individual health using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Our main finding is that the probability of “fair” or “poor” self-reported health among white-collar workers decreases by 34 percentage point after retirement. This result is generally robust to different model specifications, alternative measures of health, and different subsamples. In addition, we deliver evidence that increased health-related exercises and the cultivation of a better lifestyle are two possible channels through which retirement affects health.     

Examining how elderly employment is associated with institutional disincentives in Japan

This study examines how the decisions of the elderly with respect to work, retirement, and hours to work relate to the public pension and other relevant programs by constructing a single index of implicit tax that incorporates various factors related to institutional disincentives to working in Japan. Our regression model underscores that public pension and other related programs, taken together, discourage the elderly from working. Based on the regression results, we conduct simulations to show the extent to which the three policy reforms can encourage the elderly to stay in the labor force longer and work longer hours: (1) abolishing the earnings test for pension benefits; (2) raising the eligibility age for pension benefits; and (3) extending the wage subsidy for the elderly. The simulation results highlight the relative effectiveness of raising the eligibility age.     

Asset or burden? Impact of children on parents’ retirement

If parents receive financial support in retirement from their children, having more children with higher earning power may expedite their retirement. On the other hand, retirement may be delayed if parents are burdened with educational expenses for children. We empirically investigate how the quantity and the education of children influence their parents’ retirement decisions. Due to the endogeneity of childrearing in the retirement decision, we employ the instrumental variable method with twin births and child deaths as instruments. We find that parents retire earlier when they have more children and better educated children and they receive a significant amount of transfers from children.     

The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan

Using monthly data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey, we examine the impact of retirement on household consumption. We find little evidence of an immediate change in consumption at retirement, on average, in Japan. However, we find a decrease in consumption at retirement for low income households that is concentrated in food and work-related consumption. The availability of substantial retirement bonuses to a large share of Japanese retirees may help smooth consumption at retirement. We find that those households that are more likely to receive such bonuses experience a short-run consumption increase at retirement. However, among households that are less likely to receive a retirement bonus, we find that consumption decreases at retirement.     

The Effect of Pension Plan Type on Retirement Age: Distinguishing Plan Incentives from Career Length Preferences

This study uses the Retirement Confidence Survey of College and University Faculty, 2005,to examine the impact of pension plan incentives on retirement age and to understand how the widespread transition from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) plans has affected workers. Incentives stemming from differences in pension wealth accrual patterns between DB and DC plans directly induce up to a one‐year difference in expected retirement age and are indirectly responsible for up to a two‐year difference due to workers sorting into plans based on preferences over career length. The results imply that failing to account for worker sorting leads to an overestimation of the transition's effect on the average retirement age of Americans. In addition, the findings suggest that individuals choose retirement plans to diversify retirement income, which has implications for Social Security reform.     

Consumption Behavior,Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779–813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving behavior of retired singles and couples by adding lifetime uncertainty to the simple life cycle model. We tested whether predictions about consumption during retirement of this extended life cycle model hold for a sample of older Americans. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study supplemented with data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. In line with theory we found that, on average, total consumption is greater than their annuity income after retirement and that this difference increases with the level of initial wealth. For older singles but not for couples our results suggest that, as predicted by the extended theoretical model of Hurd, the on average negative consumption growth decreases with higher mortality rates.     

The effects of formal and informal child care on the Mother's labor supply—Evidence from urban China

The women's labor force participation rate in China has declined considerably during the last twenty years in urban China. Since the reforms started in the mid-1990s, publicly subsidized child care programs have decreased, and private care centers have increased. This might have increased the reliance of working mothers on informal child care and reduced their reliance on formal child care. Using post-reform data from the Project on Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) of 2008, I estimate the effects of formal and informal child care on the labor supply of mothers of young children. A recursive model with instrumental variables is employed to account for endogeneity. I find a positive and significant impact of informal child care in the form of grandchild care on the mother's labor force participation, while no significant effect of formal child care in the form of kindergartens or paid nannies. Considering recent tendencies in China to postpone retirement, one possible method to maintain mothers' presence in the labor market could be to reinforce the availability and affordability of formal child care.²³     

Us Retirement Income System

In the United States, retirement income is supplied throughthe combination of a relatively modest, contributory socialinsurance programme; employer-provided (increasingly definedcontribution savings) programmes; and individual retirementsavings. The public programme supplies the vast majority ofthe income of the poorer half of the aged population; only therichest 20 per cent receive more from employer plans than fromthe public programme. Projections show that the public programmewill have financial problems in the 2030s. Thereafter, revenueswould have to be increased by a third or benefits cut by a quarterto restore financial balance. Despite widespread angst aboutthe impact of longer lifespans and the retirement of the baby-boomgeneration, however, there is little serious discussion abouthow either the public- or private-sector programmes should beadjusted. In 2005, President Bush failed to generate significantpublic support for a plan partially to privatize the public-sectorprogramme. Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: lthompso{at}ui.urban.org     

企业职工延长退休年龄影响因素实证研究—以W市为例

企业职工作为重要的社会组成元素以及政策的接受者，延迟退休政策的制定、实施毫无疑问需要广泛征求他们的意见。本研究以W市作为调查基地，在文献研究、社会调查与深度访谈三者相结合并借助SPSS分析工具充分论证的基础上得出了相关研究结论：一是W市企业职工延迟退休影响因子排序，强到弱排序依次为：健康、收入、工作满意度、周工作时长、工作性质、抚养子女负担、配偶状况、年龄、单位福利、单位性质、性别、受教育程度、公司职位、赡养老人负担、婚姻状况。二是影响因素与延迟退休的相互关系：(1)个人因素中，男性职工比女性职工更能够接受延迟退休。年龄与延迟退休成负相关的关系。已婚或未婚企业职工都不愿意接受延迟退休。不愿意延迟退休者中受教育程度与最大延迟退休年龄正相关。(2)单位因素中，企业性质为国有、集体或控股企业与外资企业比私营、民营企业的职工更愿意接受延迟退休。单位福利种类多并不能直接刺激到企业职工的延迟退休意愿，但在强制延迟退休时，享受福利种类越多与企业职工能够接受最大延迟退休年龄之间成正相关关系。公司职位与延迟退休之间没有严格的相关关系。(3)负担因素中，具有抚养子女负担和赡养老人负担与延迟退休成负相关。(4)经济因素中，低收入和高收入的个人以及家庭相对对于中层收入而言更不愿延迟退休。健康因素与延迟退休成负相关。(5)工作因中，周工作时长与工作满意度和延迟退休决策分别成负相关和正相关。体力劳动者比脑力劳动者不愿意延迟退休。最后，对W市研究延迟退休年龄有针对性的提出相关政策建议。     

我国中部地区农村养老模式探析

我国已正式步入老龄化国家行列,传统的家庭养老模式面临着严峻的挑战。中部地区的农村老年人口是一个不容忽视的弱势群体,通过何种方式保障农村老年人的合法权益,努力为他们创造一个安定祥和的养老环境,对于建设社会主义新农村以及推进社会主义和谐社会建设的进程具有重要的作用与意义。完善当前农村养老模式必须形成全社会尊老敬老的社会氛围;建立农村老年人组织,维护老年人合法权益;积极发展中介服务,兴办农村养老福利事业,以居家养老为基础、社会服务为依托、以机构养老为补充,为老年人安度晚年创造一个良好的环境。     

Pensions and Retirement Among Black Union Army Veterans

I examine the effects of an unearned income transfer on the retirement rates and living arrangements of black Union Army veterans. I find that blacks were more than twice as responsive as whites to income transfers in their retirement decisions and 6 to 8 times as responsive in their choice of independent living arrangements. My findings have implications for understanding racial differences in rates of retirement and independent living at the beginning of the twentieth century, the rise in retirement prior to 1930, and the subsequent convergence in black-white retirement rates and living arrangements.