是褒不是贬

今年6月18日的《参考消息》转了西班牙《世界报》的一篇题为“这也是美国”的章，章中说：“美国有着不可一世的强大外表，但在帝国的背后却是反差悬殊的景象。”章分6个方面列举了美国的种种经济、社会问题。     

是反弹不是反转

由于宏观经济只是温和回升,部分行业的回暖幅度也不会很大,而且即使宏观经济回升,但是否就此开始反转向上还不能断定。由于目前仍然存在很多不确定因素,因此综合来看A股还不具备形成牛市的基本面条件,下半年股市只是反弹行情。     

标准化是顿号不是句号

近年来,陕西省社保经办机构大力推进标准化建设,目前已取得较好成效,并经国家标准化管理委员会验收合格。陕西省为何如此重视社保经办标准化建设？有何历史背景和重要意义？最近,本刊专访了陕西省人力资源和社会保障厅副厅长、省社会保障局局长马新生。     

品牌不是欺骗是迎合

消费者的情感是有价值的,品牌卖的是心灵情感,这种情感是任何人都需要的。这就是我们能够销售品牌的原因所在。     

市场目前是反弹不是反转

〖基金动态〗5只基金逼近清盘红线截至今年三季度末,531只偏股型基金的基金总份额为1.87万亿份,其中规模上百亿份的基金有48只,如最多的嘉实沪深300期末份额为408.10亿份,而一些基金则在清盘红线边缘挣扎。随着新基金募集规模的一再缩水,袖珍基金队伍正呈现不断壮大的趋势。     

是现行的不是过去的

第14期26页编辑部所写的短文说:“你读了陈云副总理在第一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议上所作的‘关于商业工作与工商关系问题’的发言以后,有什么体会和感想?你认为银行过去的信贷结算及现金管理工作     

为什么是襄樊，不是武汉

在《科学投资》报道过的创业案例中，王爱萍并不突出。她的故事既不像其他许多的创业者故事那样跌宕起伏，引人入胜；在操作手法上，也不如一些创业者那样花样翻新，奇招达出。那么，究竟是什么吸引了我们，使我们将这样一篇文章、这样一个创业者推荐给我们的读者?     

是万安支行不是安福支行

本刊第二十一期的“小票仍然不够找零”一文,批評了江西安福县在收購期間用实物找零的現象。經江西安福支行檢查后,証明这些問題并未在安福县内發生。而江西万安支行曾昭淦同志反映,該文所談的情况是万安支行八月上旬發生的問題,现早已糾正。     

是信托责任，不是诚实信用责任

诚实信用是我们社会所需要的,对于券商来说,忠于客户不仅需要诚实信用,而且应该是一种责任,是一种信托责任。请看     

What do two plus two equal？

Amathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks ＂What do two plus two equal ？ ＂The mathematician replies ＂Four＂ The interviewer asks ＂Four, exactly ？＂ The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says ＂Yes, four, exactly.＂     

Excellence is not an act,but a habit

Our character,basically,is a composite of our habits.Sow a thought,reap an action;sow an action,reap     

人民币国际化：前程远大，行路艰难

“人民币国际化”这一论题在民间讨论了近20年之后，今年以来终于上升为国家战略，而推动这一转变的，正是这场席卷全球的金融危机。     

Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing,but applying it to a single case is another

This research extends the exploration of single-play/multiple-play distinctions from monetary gambling paradigm to emergency management situation. We conducted three studies (two survey studies and one eye tracking study) to test whether an emergency plan we formulated in advance based on expectation-maximization would be likely to be applied in a single case. In the first two survey studies we found that the plan with the higher EV was more likely to be preferred when the plan was applied 100 times or to 100 areas than when the plan was applied only once or to only one area. We also found significant framing and reflection effects, both of which violated the invariance principle in the single-application condition, but not in the multiple-application condition. Furthermore, in the eye tracking study, we found distinctly different eye movement patterns in the single-application condition and the multiple-application condition. The eye movement patterns in the multiple-application condition are more consistent with the predictions deduced from expectation computation. The overall results suggest that a gap exists between the formulation and the implementation of an emergency plan. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is doable, but applying it to a single case may be more challenging.     

放缓的中国IPO：下半年有望复苏

近几年来,中国资本市场的IPO一直领跑全球,逆世界经济形势而一路上扬;然而,安永发布的一份关于全球IPO市场的调研报告显示,今年上半年A股IPO市场整体节奏是放缓的,上市的宗数和筹资额相比2015年都出现了较大的回落,这主要是由于投资者对于中国大陆经济增速放缓和货币贬值的担忧所致。与此同时,报告还显示中国大陆和香港有着大量正在准备上市的公司。     

Subtle is the Lord,but malicious He is not: the calculation of abnormal stock returns in applied research

We use the expected logarithmic returns formula for the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) in conjunction with the expected logarithmic returns formula for the Feller diffusion to illustrate the nature and magnitude of errors which arise in computed abnormal returns when one applies an expected logarithmic returns formula which is incompatible with the stochastic process that generates a stock’s returns. Empirical analysis based on FTSE 100 stock price data for the five year period ending in 2017 shows that the scale of the errors in computed abnormal returns will hinge on the volatility of the returns generating process but will be particularly pronounced for relatively low stock prices. Although our principal focus is with comparing abnormal returns on the GBM and Feller diffusion, we also simulate logarithmic returns for the Uhlenbeck and Ornstein (1930) process, several interpretations of the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) process and the scaled ‘t’ process of Praetz (1972) and Blattberg and Gonedes (1974). Taken in conjunction with the GBM and the Feller diffusion, these processes underpin virtually every equilibrium based asset pricing model which appears in the literature. However, computing abnormal returns for any of these processes using the expected logarithmic returns formula for the GBM inevitably leads to errors in the abnormal returns. Hence, an important principle which emerges from our analysis is that it is crucially important for researchers and others to test the compatibility of empirically observed returns with the distributional assumptions on which the empirical analysis is based if the complications arising from mis-specified modelling procedures are to be avoided.     

如何看待“人民币外升内贬”

2007年，国内物价上涨较快而人民币对美元保持升值态势，这种人民币对外购买力上升和对内购买力下降的现象引起社会各方面的普遍关注。该文首先从理论和实践方面分析了货币对外升值对内贬值的现象；其次指出人民币对内贬值的重要原因是流动性过剩；并认为人民币对美元升值的主要原因是美元走软。