Agricultural efficiency and welfare in South Africa

Agricultural and food commodity price declines associated with domestic and international agricultural efficiency gains can have important welfare effects for a country. While food price reductions benefit low-income consumers in particular, they may also cause declines in agricultural employment, leading to some resistance to technological change as a policy goal. The simulations reported here use a South African Computable General Equilibrium model with highly disaggregated food and agricultural sectors to illustrate the various effects of such agricultural efficiency gains. The results suggest that technological advances in agriculture should not be resisted because of their negative impact on agricultural employment; the welfare gains from declining prices are too important, while employment gains in other (growing) sectors are likely to outweigh the loss of agricultural employment. In the face of increasing international efficiency South African agriculture should be encouraged to respond by also increasing its efficiency, despite the negative consequences for employment in the industry, as a failure to do so may be even more detrimental to the poor in terms of overall employment.     

Underemployment in South Africa

With the introduction of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey since 2008, a newly derived variable, namely underemployed, has become available. It is derived according to the ‘time-related’ approach (i.e. those who are employed, but would like to work longer hours and are available to work longer hours in the near future). However, underemployment could also be derived according to the ‘inadequate employment situations’ approach (e.g. under-utilisation of skills, over-qualification). Because underemployment is a seriously under-researched topic in South Africa, this article investigates the extent of underemployment according to these two definitions, before examining whether the characteristics of the two groups of underemployed are significantly different.     

在南非的日子

“我一直是一个心存幻想的女人,不肯一辈子走别人为我安排的道路。前方的路清清楚楚,仿佛可以看到坟墓,日复一日地重复着没有任何新鲜感的日子,我只想逃离……”     

走进南非

南非是一片多彩迷人、神奇的土地,也是我向往已久的国家。2014年年底至2015年年初,我有机会在南非度过了20天的假期,所到之处的美景趣事和风土人情给我留下了深刻的印象。从克鲁格国家野生动物园与那狮群的“亲密接触”,到世界七大奇观--桌山上在流转白云间的畅游;从开普敦豪特湾别墅的品茶,到以葡萄园和野花而闻名的弗朗斯胡克庄园的品酒;从好望角灯塔上亲眼见证两大洋的交汇,到克尼斯纳世外桃源般逍遥岛上的漫步;从莫赛尔贝湾欣赏冲浪爱好者的竞技,到伊丽莎白港别墅庭院内的小憩畅谈……无论是白种人的彬彬有礼,还是黑种人的热情好客,都令人难以忘怀。20天的时间里,享受了自然,享受了休闲,享受了生活,享受了海水和阳光,我用一张张照片记录下了“走进南非”的美好瞬间。“走进南非”共分为上、下两篇,本期就跟着我的视角领略这个充满着阳光和热情的“彩虹之国”。     

Combating poverty in South Africa

The successful and peaceful political transition in South Africa is regarded as a great accomplishment for its people. Unfortunately, democracy was not accompanied by economic growth and policies that could lead to a meaningful quality of life and an acceptable standard of living for all the country's citizens. There is a need for South Africa to reconcile the expectations resulting from the achievement of democracy with the realities of both the problems and the potential of the economy. As South Africa attempts to alleviate poverty through development, it is essential to balance the ever-increasing and often competing demands against limited natural resources. This article formulates some policies and programmes designed to combat poverty at its source.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa

This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South Africa for the period 1990–2014. The index is constructed from three sources: (1 ) Disagreement among professional forecasters, (2 ) a count of international and local newspaper articles discussing economic uncertainty in South Africa and (3 ) mentions of uncertainty in the quarterly economic review of the South African Reserve Bank. The index shows high levels of uncertainty around the period of democratic transition in 1992–1994, the large depreciation of the currency in 2001 and the financial crisis of 2008. The uncertainty index is a leading indicator of a recession. An unanticipated increase in the index is associated with a fall in GDP, investment, industrial production and private sector employment. Contrary to evidence for the U.S.A and the U.K., uncertainty shocks are inflationary. These results are robust to controlling for global uncertainty shocks, consumer confidence and financial shocks.