Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter

Most studies on the relationship between public debt and economic growth implicitly assume homogeneous debt effects across their samples. We –in accordance with recent literature– challenge this view and state that there likely is a great deal of cross-country heterogeneity in that relationship. However, other than scholars assuming that all countries are different, we expect that clusters of countries differ. We identify three country clusters with distinct economic systems: Liberal (Anglo Saxon), Continental (Core EU members) and Nordic (Scandinavian). We argue that different degrees of fiscal uncertainty at comparable levels of public debt between those economic systems constitute a major source of heterogeneity in the debt-growth relationship. Our empirical evidence supports this assumption. Continental countries face more growth reducing public debt effects than especially Liberal countries. There, public debt apparently exerts neutral or even positive growth effects, while for Nordic countries a non-linear relationship is discovered, with negative debt effects kicking in at public debt values of around 60% of GDP.     

Ideological myths of modern economic theory and reality

According to the authors, the concept of a market and its antipode, central planning, essentially represent different tools in the arsenal of the state regulation of the economy. The dominance of a particular instrument (the market in modern Russia and centralized planning in the Soviet Union) defines only the predominant type of government regulation and not fundamental differences between economic systems.     

Cities and Megalopolises: The Problem of Definitions and Sustainable Development Indicators

The persistent lack of a generally accepted scientific definition of city seriously hinders the implementation of sustainable development goals adopted by the United Nations as universal strategic guidelines for world progress until 2030, including the sustainable development of cities and settlements. In connection with this, actual problems of defining city and megacity (megalopolis) have been analyzed. A system of integrated indicators of sustainable urban development with regard to the global level has been considered. Particular attention has been paid to the new task for Russia of adapting these indicators to domestic specific natural and socioeconomic conditions, with consideration of the long-term prospects.     

Ludwig Von Mises’ Neoclassical Analysis of Dumping

The paper explores similarity in the analysis of dumping by Ludwig von Mises, which he labels as margin monopoly, in Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (1949), and by Joan Robinson in The Economics of Imperfect Competition (1933). Mises, though, does not admit to similarity with Robinson, and five reasons are suggested why he was unwilling to acknowledge Robinson. Robinson’s analysis is neoclassical, and so is that of Mises, which is an anomaly for Mises, an Austrian economist who generally focuses on activity in disequilibrium.     

The Valuation Effect of Accounting Standard 158 on Firms with High and Low Financial Risk

SFAS 158 mandated balance sheet disclosure of the funded status of firms’ Defined Benefit Pension Plan using the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) to estimate the pension liability. SFAS 158 caused a market phenomenon because the use of the PBO engendered dramatically higher estimates of pension liability and hence the perception of risk. Our work focuses on two aspects of this change in pension accounting: first, how will industry firms change their accounting strategy in light of the new rules, and second, how will firms’ stock prices be affected by the new allegedly better estimate of pension liability? Our research suggests that firms’ accounting strategies changed in that they use higher discount rates to estimate pension liability which offset the dramatic impact of using the PBO. In addition, we find that high financial risk firms’ tendencies to use higher discount rates increase with the firms’ leverage and decrease with liquidity. To test the market reaction we utilize standard event study methodology to investigate the effects of SFAS 158 on stock returns. Our findings suggest that firms with high (low) financial risk earn negative (positive) abnormal returns on and around relevant event dates preceding the implementation of SFAS 158.     

Three Perspectives on the Dutch Growth of Flexible Employment

The growth in flexible work arrangements has been more pronounced in the Netherlands than in most other western economies. Own account work, fixed-term contracts and contracts with variable hours all have become more prevalent since the early 2000’s. This paper describes the growth of flexible work arrangements from three perspectives. The institutional perspective reveals that the Dutch institutions provide incentives and possibilities for employers to circumvent institution-based risks and costs, and for workers to avoid taxes and social security contributions. The individual perspective shows that most workers nevertheless prefer an open-ended employment contract, which some groups manage to obtain more often than others. Over the life cycle the share of flexible employment contracts decreases among all cohorts and all social groups, but more so among the higher educated and men. Own account work, which is mostly a positive choice, increases over the life cycle. The job perspective shows that flexible work arrangements have grown in all sectors of the economy. In some sectors the increase is predominantly in own account work, in other sectors predominantly in flexible employment contracts, without a clear relation to sector characteristics.     

Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support

This paper examines whether weak central bank finances affect inflation by scrutinizing the key rationale for such a relationship: that the absence of Treasury support makes central bank finances relevant for price stability. Specifically, I ask whether central banks which are not likely to enjoy fiscal support when needed experience higher inflation as their financial situation deteriorates. I find this to be true among a large sample of 82 countries between 1998 and 2008. De facto potential fiscal support appears relevant, while de jure fiscal support, which I survey analyzing 82 central bank laws, does not appear to matter. The results also bring forward an explanation for the conflicting results of the previous empirical studies, which neglected this key component.     

Colonial taxation and government spending in British Africa, 1880–1940: Maximizing revenue or minimizing effort?

Colonial state institutions are widely cited as a root cause of sub-Saharan African underdevelopment, but the opinions differ on the channels of causation. Were African colonial states ruled by near absolutist governments who strived to maximize revenue extraction in order to strengthen their grip on native African societies? Or did European powers build ‘states without substance’, governed with minimal resources and effort, failing to invest in basic public goods? This paper develops an analytical framework for comparing colonial tax and spending patterns and applies it to eight British African colonies (1880–1940). We show that colonial fiscal systems did not adhere to a uniform logic, that minimalism prevailed in West Africa, extractive features were more pronounced in East Africa, and that Mauritius revealed characteristics of a developmental state already before 1940.     

Wage dispersion in Germany and the US: is there compression from below?

Wage compression from below is a common diagnosis for Germany compared to the U.S. We develop alternative hypotheses in order to identify the so-called accordion effect, i.e. reduced inter-quantile distances below the median especially for low skilled and other ill-paid groups. Our results are partly at odds with wide-spread beliefs. Using large micro data sources we find evidence of an accordion effect at the low end of the distribution for the U.S. The results for Germany, however, are contrary to what one would have expected in case of marked wage compression from below. For low-skilled workers of both genders and for female workers in general we find higher inter-quantile distances below rather than above the median. By contrast, there is strong evidence for the accordion effect if skilled male workers are considered.     

The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies

In this paper, we investigate the impact of US uncertainty shocks on GDP growth in nine small open economies: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We compare the impact of two types of shocks: i) stock market volatility shocks and ii) policy uncertainty shocks. Using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q1, this issue is analysed using Bayesian VAR models. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty seems to matter more than stock market volatility. Stock market volatility shocks appear to robustly have significant effects on Danish GDP growth. Policy uncertainty shocks, on the other hand, reliably lowers GDP growth in all five Nordic countries in a statistically significant manner. Statistically significant effects of policy uncertainty shocks on the Anglo-Saxon countries in our sample are harder to establish and are, in our preferred specification, only found for the United Kingdom.     

The analysis of the dynamics of the Russian economy using the output gap indicator

In this paper we estimate the indicator output gap for the Russian economy in 2000–2015 using univariate and multivariate versions of the Hodrick–Prescott filter and the Kalman filter for the model of unobserved components (taking into account the Phillips curve). The calculation results show a slowdown of potential output after 2014.     

From Estimation Results to Stylized Facts Twelve Recommendations for Empirical Research in International Activities of Heterogeneous Firms

Heterogeneous firms are at the heart of both the New New International Trade Theory and the Micro-econometrics of International Firm Activities. One important aim of micro-econometric studies is to uncover stylized facts that hold over space and time, and that can both inspire theoretical models that are based on “realistic” assumptions, and inform policy debates in an evidence-based way. Which results from the thousands of empirical estimates reported in the literature on the micro-econometrics of international firm activities do we consider as convincing? Based on my own experience from the last twenty years I use the opportunity of this paper to make twelve recommendations that, hopefully, will help to find the right way on the thorny road from estimation results to stylized facts. I will deal with the following topics: comparisons of means vs. comparisons of distributions; extremely different firms, or outliers; unobserved heterogeneity; simultaneous occurrence of differences across quantiles, outliers, and unobserved heterogeneity; heterogeneous effects of international firm activities on firm performance; replication; within-study replication by international research teams; meta-analysis; and talking to practitioners.     

South Africa’s Economic Transformation Since 1994: What Influence has the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) Had?

When the African National Congress (ANC) became the democratic government of South Africa in 1994, it faced the challenge of transforming the economy. How this was to be done, however, revolved around two divergent views of the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) which forms the underlying ideology or glue that binds together the Tripartite Alliance comprising the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), the largest workers’ union in the country. Transformation could be achieved either radically through measures such as nationalisation where political control would be transposed into economic power, or via a more liberal route involving the promotion of macro-economic development and the growth of company earnings. This article investigates how the ANC government has sought to bring about the much-needed transformation by providing summary analyses of the following macro-economic policies: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy, the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative - South Africa (ASGISA), the New Growth Path (NGP) and the National Development Plan (NDP). Evidence suggests that while the NDR promised radical results, the economic transformation that has been taking place in South Africa since 1994 has been driven largely by neo-liberal principles. This is in contrast to what the ANC claims in various policy documents and what various scholars, such as Jeffery (2010:5) and Venter (2012), have also claimed. As South Africa’s economic fortunes have declined in recent years in the face of mounting external pressures and internal policy uncertainty, this deviation from the original ideology and plan is causing significant discord in the country.     

Is it really more dispersed?

The ECB’s one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members at all times, which raises the question of how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. I measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied rates at the member state level. These rates explicitly take into account the natural rate of interest to capture changes in trend growth. I find that monetary policy stress within the euro area has been steadily decreasing prior to the recent financial crisis. Current stress levels are not only lower today than in the late 1990s, they are also in line with what is commonly observed among U.S. states or pre-euro German Länder.     

The Innovative Development of the Transport Services Market: A Cluster Approach

The concept of an innovative transport and logistics cluster is formulated in the article. As a result of research into the current trends in the formation of domestic and foreign transport and logistics clusters (TLCs), the prospects of the formation of innovative transport-logistical clusters in the Russian Federation are determined based on the step-by-step approach proposed by the authors. The main ways of assessing the efficiency indicators of the cluster in relation to individual enterprises and their groups have been outlined.     

A Re-Examination of the Effect of GATT/WTO on Trade

The empirical literature on the effect of the GATT/WTO on trade provides ambiguous results. This paper sheds new light on this issue by re-examining the ex post (partial) effect of GATT/WTO membership on trade using multiple econometric specifications of the gravity equation and analysing several potential asymmetries of the GATT/WTO system. Our results show an uneven but pervasive evidence that membership in GATT/WTO have had an economically significant effect on members’ bilateral trade. Moreover, we find that the GATT/WTO effect operates through both trade margins but mainly through the intensive margin.     

British Colonial Legacies and Political Development

This paper investigates the developmental legacies of British colonial rule. It draws on insight from qualitative case studies, which show that direct and indirect rule institutionalized very different states and thereby differentially affected postcolonial political development. The study proposes that these qualitative findings might provide insight into mechanisms underlying past statistical work on colonial state legacies. Using a variable measuring the extent to which 33 former British colonies were ruled through indirect legal-administrative institutions, the analysis finds that the extent of indirect colonial rule is strongly and negatively related to several different indicators of postcolonial political development while controlling for other factors. It therefore provides evidence that the present levels of political development among former British colonies have historical roots and have been shaped by the extent to which they were ruled either directly or indirectly during the colonial period.     

The valuation of water for conservation projects in South Africa

A number of water development and conservation programmes are currently being undertaken in South Africa, one of the most notable being the Working for Water Programme. The economic rationale underlying the programme in selected mountain catchments in the Western Cape was presented by Van Wilgen et al. (South African Journal of Science, 93: 404–11, 1997 VAN WILGEN, BW, LITTLE, PR, CHAPMAN, RA, GÖRGENS, AHM, WILLEMS, T and MARAIS, C. 1997. The sustainable development of water resources: history, financial costs, and benefits of alien plant control programmes. South African Journal of Science, 93: 404–11. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Marais (Unpublished, PhD thesis, University of Stellenbosch, 1998 MARAIS C 1998 An economic evaluation of alien plant control programmes in the mountain catchment areas of the Western Cape province, South Africa Unpublished PhD thesis. Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch  [Google Scholar]). A cost–benefit analysis of the Working for Water Programme in the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu‐Natal was conducted by Gillham & Haynes (Unpublished paper presented at Tenth South African National Hydrology Symposium, 2001 GILLHAM S HAYNES M 2001 Evaluating a riparian clearing programme as a water management strategy Unpublished paper presented at the Tenth South African National Hydrology Symposium, Pietermaritzburg, 26–28 September  [Google Scholar]). Cost–benefit analysis has also been conducted in the Eastern Cape by Hosking & Du Preez (South African Journal of Science, 95: 442–8, 1999 HOSKING, SG and DU PREEZ, M. 1999. A cost–benefit analysis of removing alien trees in the Tsitsikamma mountain catchment. South African Journal of Science, 95: 442–8. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). There are, however, aspects of these assessments which merit more attention than they have been given thus far. One of these aspects is the value of water benefits, and this article examines it from the perspectives of marginal cost and willingness to pay. It is shown that different approaches are appropriate for different project locations, and that significantly different results are being obtained using these approaches. It is concluded that great care is needed in relating the value of water benefits to the specifics of the various locations where the conservation project is being implemented.     

Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German Länder we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth in EMU. However, country-specific deviations from the rest of the currency union are much more pronounced and much more persistent in Europe than in the US or Germany. This holds before and after the introduction of the common currency. Hence, asymmetric shocks in the future might take a long time to dissipate.     

‘Outcome’ Assessment: What Exactly Are We Measuring? A Personal Reflection on Measuring the Outcomes from Competition Agencies’ Interventions

The UK and Dutch competition agencies were pioneers in Europe in publishing annual assessments of the ‘outcomes’ from their work. These countries had new competition laws to report on and a strong culture of public sector evaluation. Other countries have followed, with different approaches but enough common ground for OECD to develop a standard methodology. However, the measures are simplistic: they miss many important aspects of ‘outcomes’. I nonetheless argue that these assessments are worth carrying out but they should be recognised for what they are: a rather sophisticated measure of agency activity, rather than a simplistic assessment of outcomes.