从“made in China”到“made by China”——访中关村科技园区盖城先生

2005年3月下旬,江南草长莺飞。江苏溧阳天目湖畔,一个全国性的“后WTO时代的经济开发区战略论坛”在历史的平面中碾下自己的轨迹。显然,此前的二十年里,各种类型的开发区成为中国经济增长和发展的支点与动力引擎,并形成中国经济“开发区化”的特色。不过这20年,中国经济在一个相对独立的环境中发展。而这种制造了中国经济奇迹的相对独立的环境,随着2005年1月1日进入历史。此后,理论上中国经济在WTO自由贸易的游戏规则下全面地对接世界,这种环境的转变使中国经济的发展采取了与以往不同的轨迹,开发区作为经济引擎的作用也要产生变化。中国…     

一种可借鉴的经济预测法——读《我在高盛的经济预测法》

凡事预则立,不预则废。无论你承认不承认,你都已经被卷入了经济的漩涡之中,如何在这个漩涡之中“立”而不“废”呢,这就需要对经济走势或日经济周期的把握了。《我在高盛的经济预测法》,就是一本谈论预测经济走势的书。作者约瑟夫·H·埃利斯,是高盛集团的合伙人,一位有着35年行业分析背景并连续18年被著名杂志《机构投资者》评为华尔街第一零售业分析师的天才。     

后911时代：油价阴云难散

“911改变了世界”已经是人人耳熟能详了,但要说911以后全球经济并没有多大改变,恐怕很多人都会感到意外。911当天,几位经济学家在逃过一劫之后,很快就谈起了这一事件对经济的影响。当时经济已经表现疲软,2000年第三季度和2001年第一季度的经济小幅下滑(折合成年率下降0.5%),好在第四季度和第二季度分别上涨了2.1%和1.2%。不过,下滑趋势主要集中在制造业,而标志着经济衰退的三大因素──深度、持续时间和扩散性都没有清晰显现。在911之前,大部分经济学家都认为经济并未陷入衰退。但在那之后,经济界的普遍看法出现逆转,人们普遍认为经济陷入…     

总部经济与海淀区的大发展

“总部经济”是随着经济全球化和信息技术的发展而出现的一种企业总部向中心城市集群布局、制造基地向周边地区集群布局的经济现象。企业总部的聚集对这些区域的经济结构、就业结构、城市发展产生深刻影响,不仅可以促进本地区经济的发展和就业水平的提高,而且可以提升整个区域的综合竞争力。海淀区具有发展总部经济的优势,今后的重点是要创造环境,吸引更多的研发资源聚集海淀的同时,并进一步拓宽延长研发产业链条,实现研发大区向经济大区的发展。“三赢模型”——总部经济形成的内在机制总部经济的产生和发展,基于以下三个条件“假设”:一是…     

国美电器：从经营品牌到品牌经营

在经历靠天然强制性约束消费的垄断经济,靠产品功能和特征约束消费的产品经济,靠广告定位约束消费的创意经济后,商业世界已经走入了品牌经济时代。事实上,每一种经营模式都是通过一种主导力量去分配和约束消费资源,从而达到经济目的。作为中国家电零售企业的龙头企业,国美电器清楚地看到,品牌经济正在以低成本,高效率的形式影响到每一位消费者,并且迅速侵入目标大众的生活。凭借大胆的创新精神和勇于挑战传统的气量,国美电器在过去七十八年发展过程中,逐步赢得了市场,赢得了消费者的信任,并赢得了良好的品牌形象。国美电器从1987年不足100平…     

房市调控政策已转向?

新浪财经日前发表上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭的文章说,7月30日,中央政治局召开会议,分析研究上半年经济形势和下半年经济工作,并提出"积极释放有效需求,推动居民消费升级,保持合理投资增长,积极稳妥推进以人为核心的新型城镇化,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展"。其中,关于房地产的措辞,引起了广泛关注,并使31日的地产股集体上涨。只提"促进房地产市场平稳健康发展",而不谈房地产调控,     

虚拟经济开启文化创意新时代——北京第二届文博会企业文化与品牌创意国际论坛暨中国虚拟经济区启动大会

论坛综述:随着世界文化产业和互联网技术的发展,与虚拟经济相关的行业服务和产品大量涌现,并带动了全球虚拟经济的热潮。作为第一个面向全球提供运营服务的虚拟与     

中关村商务中心区的聚集效应

中关村商务中心区是在实施科教兴国战略,加快中关村科技园区发展的首都经济整体发展框架下规划建设的城市功能区,地处中关村电子一条街的发祥地,占地0.5平方公里,建设面积150万平方米。由于该功能区地处中国知识经济的核心地带,功能定位为高科技的商务中心区,区域经济聚集优势十分明显,同时见有较强的区域竞争优势。聚集是指某一特定领域中,大量关联产业以及相关支撑机构在一定空间上的集聚,并形成强劲、持续竞争优势的现象。聚集经济(AgglomerationEconomics)又称聚集经济利益、聚集经济效益,聚集经济本质上是由于厂商或工业集中而造成的…     

京畿区域合作提升竞争力

我个人认为,要把提升区域竞争力放在区域经济合作的首位。为什么要这样做呢?因为,当今的城市和区域是赖以生存和发展的基石,是先天形成的自然资源,是后天难以改变的要素。在全球化、信息化的时代,我们并没有像早期的预言家预言的那样:城市的地位下降,经济将没有位置。实际上经济全球化时代,城市和区域在全球化内迅速增长,而且在这个过程中,很多国家和地区开始把区域经济作为提升国家竞争力的一个战略性的工具。那么怎么来提升区域经济竞争力?这里面首先要明确什么是竞争力,关于这个问题国内外有不同的看法。对于区域的竞争力来说核心的就是…     

中关村核心区：科技与文化的交响曲

中关村企业已经抓住了中国经济转型提供的历史机遇,迎来了经济发展的新增长点——科技与文化融合,并谱写着动人的乐章。     

文化·海淀·城市标识

一个国家和民族，最终展现的是文化，文化才是可持续的竞争力，所以我想，世界城市一定是有自己文化特色的城市。我希望我们北京，要坚守文化底线。文化底线就是你要有特质，这是你的灵魂。     

谁来补齐高等教育的短板?

或许从MOOC、校企合作办学以及凤凰城大学的教育模式中,我们可以汲取一些养分来提高国内高等教育的产出率。有媒体报道,2013年是建国以来大学毕业生最多的一年。全国普通高校毕业生规模为699万人,比去年增加19万人,再创历史新高。从就业数据来看,截至2013年4月     

Broadband Demand Analysis for Network Building

An increase of broadband demand is forecasted by transitional methods that consider the effect of this increase through many factors, such as customer requirement diversification, and new service introduction and deployment under competition. Broadband demand forecasting has become important for closing the digital divide, promoting regional developments, and constructing networks economically; therefore, a demand forecast model that considers the mechanisms of market structure is necessary. In this paper, a demand analysis method for broadband access combining macro- and micro-data mining is proposed, and the service choice behaviour of customers is introduced as a customer model not only to express the macro trend of market structure, but also to consider area marketing. The proposed method can estimate the potential demand, determine the point at which broadband demand growth peaks in a specified area, and support a decision for ultra high-speed broadband access facility installation.     

绿色财富：从名义GDP到绿色GDP

什么是财富？《辞海》对财富的定义是：具有价值的东西。由英国著名经济学家戴维·W·皮尔斯主编的《现代经济学词典》对财富下的定义是：“任何有市场价值并且可用来交换货币或商品的东西都可被看作是财富。它包括实物与实物资产、金融资产。以及可以生产收入的个人技能，当这些东西可以在市场上换取商品或货币时，它们被认为是财富。财富可以分成两种主要类型：     

21万亿消费信贷为中国金融机构助飞

近几年,中国消费信贷开始腾飞.住房抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款量保持强劲增长.这一趋势出现于各个财富阶层和年龄段,但中国最大城市的年轻和富裕消费者的借款可能性最大.然而,该市场仍处于初级阶段,许多金融机构正在努力开发有效的业务模式、建立优质的服务运作体系并深入分析消费者.     

应对通胀的两难困局

改善经济的总体效率．在投入不变的条件下增加产出是缓解通货膨胀最根本的手段。这里潜力最大的行业就是金融业。     

天性中人魔

人的天性中只有人性和兽性吗？有人说：人，一半是天使，一半是魔鬼。其实并没有反映人的天性的全部。天性里还有一部分是中性。人性包含人道、善良、友爱、宽容等；兽性包含贪婪、残忍、唯我、纵欲等；中性包含竞争、敬业、攀比、守则等。     

A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.     

A Conjoint Analysis of Demand for the Japanese Mobile Phone Market

The Japanese mobile phone market is 55.8% of the total market in the telecommunications industry. This paper is a conjoint analysis on Japanese consumer preferences for Japanese mobile phones. The analysis in this paper is presented after a questionnaire survey was given to 3,412 Japanese mobile phone users over 15 years old. The results of this analysis show that a decline in the price of mobile phone sets, an increase in transmission speed, the application of family discounts, and the continuation of contracts with the same telecommunication companies, all raise demand for mobile networks. In addition, the author found that user groups of NTT DOCOMO, au (KDDI), Softbank, and MVNO have different utility functions. According to the estimation of Mean Willingness to Pay (MWTP) in this paper, suppliers of mobile phone networks may be able to optimize and maximize demand by adjusting attributions and their levels.     

Impact of Online Customer Reviews on Sales Outcomes: An Empirical Study Based on Prospect Theory

This study examines the influence of the valence of online customer reviews on sales outcomes based on prospect theory. Numerous studies have revealed the importance of customer reviews in online marketing. However, only few studies have explored the impact of online customer reviews on sales outcomes in the dynamic process. Prior studies in behavioral economics literature have indicated that people differently value gains and losses and that losses have more emotional impact than an equivalent amount of gains. This study verifies whether prospect theory applies to the relation between online customer reviews and sales outcomes. Relevant data were collected from Amazon.co.jp, and three statistical models were employed to investigate the relation between the two factors. Major findings confirm that negative customer reviews considerably impact online sales than positive reviews. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the marginal effects of positive and negative reviews decrease with the increase in their volume. The results of this study will enable marketers to compare the relative sales effects of different types of customer reviews and improve the effectiveness of customer service management.