Convergent Validity of Contingent Behavior Responses in Models of Recreation Demand

Recreation demand modeling efforts are often limited by the range of variation in observed environmental quality. To address this limitation, the practitioners increasingly make use of contingent behavior (CB) data; i.e., asking survey respondents to forecast their trip patterns under hypothetical quality conditions. However, relatively little is known as to whether these stated responses are consistent with how households response to actual quality variation. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the convergent validity of CB data with observed trip patterns. Toward this end, we jointly model recreational lake usage in Iowa using observed and CB trip data collected from the 2004 Iowa Lake Survey. The Iowa lakes Survey collected three sets of trip data for 131 lakes in the state: (a) actual trips in 2004, (b) anticipated trips in 2005 to the same lakes given current lake conditions and (c) anticipated trips in 2005 given hypothetical improvements to a subset of the lakes. The three types of recreation demand data provide a unique opportunity to investigate the convergent validity of individual responses to actual versus hypothetical environmental conditions.     

Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.     

Context-Sensitive Benefit Transfer Using Stated Choice Models: Specification and Convergent Validity for Policy Analysis

Benefit transfer has been an important, practical policy tool appealing to government agencies, especially when time or budget is constrained. However, the literature fails to support convergent validity of benefit transfer using the stated-preference method. This empirical study conducts four convergent validity assessments of benefit transfer using the choice modeling method and data from Rhode Island and Massachusetts, regarding coastal land management. The comparisons evaluate how individual characteristics improve benefit transfer and yield insights relevant to research specifications to produce studies adaptable for transfer applications. Empirical tests show benefit transfer using choice modeling may be acceptable, and even empirically valid, depending on the policy objectives and the context.     

Combining Revealed Preference Data with Stated Preference Data: A Latent Class Approach

A substantial literature exists combining data from revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) sources, aimed either at testing for the convergent validity of the two approaches used in nonmarket valuation or as a means of drawing on their relative strengths to improve the ultimate estimates of value. In doing so, it is assumed that convergence of the two elicitation approaches is an “all or nothing” proposition; i.e., the RP and SP data are either consistent with each other or they are not. The purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative framework that allows for possible divergence among individuals in terms the consistency between their RP and SP responses. In particular, we suggest the use of a latent class approach to segment the population into two groups. The first group has RP and SP responses that are internally consistent, while the remaining group exhibits some form of inconsistent preferences. An EM algorithm is employed in an empirical application that draws on the Alberta and Saskatchewan moose hunting data sets used in earlier combined RP and SP exercises. The empirical results suggest that somewhere between one-third and one-half the sample exhibits consistent preferences. We also examine differences in welfare estimates drawn from the two classes.     

A Split-Sample Revealed and Stated Preference Demand Model to Examine Homogenous Subgroup Consumer Behavior Responses to Information and Food Safety Technology Treatments

The combination and joint estimation of revealed and stated preference (RP/SP) data approach to examining consumer preferences to relevant policy-based measures typically fail to account for heterogeneity in the data by considering behavior of the average individual. However, in policy-based analyses, where the research is often driven by understanding how different individuals react to different or similar scenarios, a preferred approach would be to analyze preferences of homogenous population subgroups. We accomplish this by developing a split-sample RP/SP analysis that examines whether homogenous subgroups of the population, based on individual health and behavioral characteristics, respond differently to health-risk information and new food safety technology. The ongoing efforts by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to reduce illness and death associated with consuming raw Gulf of Mexico oysters provide an ideal platform for the analysis as the health risks only relate to a very specific consumer subgroup. Results from split-sample demand models indicate that educational information treatments cause vulnerable at-risk consumers to reduce their oyster demand, implying that a more structured approach to disseminating the brochures to the at-risk population could have the desired result of reducing annual illness levels. Also, findings across all subgroups provide strong empirical evidence that the new FDA policy requiring processing technology to be used in oyster production will have a detrimental effect on the oyster industry.     

A Random Parameter Model with Onsite Sampling for Recreation Site Choice: An Application to Southern California Shoreline Sportfishing

Estimation of consistent parameter estimates for recreational demand models faces challenges arising from the choice-based nature of the data collected primarily for resource management purposes. As an alternative to randomized respondent-based sampling, choice-based onsite sampling can provide information on actual choices made by a subset of the population where participation has a low incidence. While the literature has shown that under specific restrictions the estimation of choice models from onsite sampling data yields unbiased fixed parameter estimates for the conditional logit model, this result does not carry over to estimation of the random parameter logit model. We propose an estimator for the unbiased estimation of the random parameter model using choice-based data; our estimator uses weights based on information about the level of sampling effort. An empirical application of the standard and weighted discrete choice RUM models to onsite sample data on recreational fishing illustrates the advantages of the proposed estimator. The estimation results indicate the compensating variation associated with an decrease, or increase, of 50 % in expected catch rates for a recreational shoreline sportfishing trip to a man-made structure in southern California is $$-{\$}2.80$$ or $${\$}3.54$$ per trip, respectively.     

Welfare Economics with Intransitive Revealed Preferences: A Theory of the Endowment Effect

Economists use the standard rational model to predict behavior after a policy change and to determine the policy's welfare implications. Recent experimental observations are casting doubt on the predictive accuracy of the standard model, but the more realistic behavioral alternatives often provide a poor basis for making normative evaluations. This paper suggests that we can still predict behavior and measure welfare within the same model. We show that optimizing agents with standard preferences will in some cases behave as if they are subject to an endowment effect. Even so, we may still be able to uncover information about their preferences.     

The Effect of Respondent Experience/Knowledge in the Elicitation of Contingent Values: An Investigation of Convergent Validity,Procedural Invariance and Reliability

Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses.     

Benefit Transfer: A Comparison of WTP for Air Quality between France and Germany

A contingent valuation study was carried out under similar conditions on two sites simultaneously: Strasbourg (France) and Kehl (Germany) in order to test the reliability of the benefit transfer method. On average, the air quality is approximately the same in the two cities. Using a transfer of the benefit function, we compared the direct estimated benefits from improved air quality with the transferred benefits in the same city. The originality of this test is that the valued good is the same in both cities, which means that the transfer is an intra-site transfer. However our findings show that the method of benefit transfer was not generally valid. Indeed inhabitants of Kehl declared a higher price for their state of health and air quality than inhabitants in Strasbourg. This result could be explained by a stronger sensitivity to environmental problems in Germany.     

Anomalies and Stated Preference Techniques: A Framework for a Discussion of Coping Strategies

This paper introduces a symposium on the issue of how stated preference (SP) research can best cope with ‘anomalies’ (i.e. systematic deviations from the predictions of standard economic theory) in survey responses. It proposes a framework for constructive debate, recognising (i) the legitimate aspirations of SP research, (ii) the relevance of evidence from sources other than best-practice SP, and (iii) the precautionary value of investigating strategies for coping with suspected anomalies, even if questions about the robustness of anomalies have not been finally resolved. Five alternative coping strategies, discussed in more detail in the symposium, are briefly introduced. JEL classifications: D61, D63, Q51     

Valuing Changes in the Quality of Coral Reef Ecosystems: A Stated Preference Study of SCUBA Diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park

We estimated the economic value of changes in the quality of a coral reef ecosystem to SCUBA divers in the Caribbean using a stated preference mail survey. Our sampling frame was all divers with U.S. home addresses who purchased a tag required for diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park in 2001. Divers were asked how they might have altered their trip choice had the quality of the coral reef system been different from what they experienced. From these responses we inferred the value of three different levels of quality defined by visibility, species diversity, and percent coral cover. We used random utility theory and mixed logit to analyze the choice questions. Our sample size was 211, and our survey response rate was 75%. For modest changes in quality we estimated per person annual losses at $45. For larger losses the value was $192. Presented at the 3rd World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists in Kyoto, Japan, July 2006.     

土地利用变化与生态环境质量的相关性研究——以湖北省咸宁市为例

利用成宁市1996～2005年土地利用详查数据和环境公报、统计年鉴的相关数据,引用土地利用动态度和土地利用综合程度指数,对土地利用变化特征和生态环境现状进行分析,选取土地利用综合程度指数和生态环境质量主要指标,运用灰色关联分析法测算土地综合程度指数与生态环境质量主要指标的关联度,从而分析土地利用变化导致的生态环境变化及其影响程度.     

制度变迁与经济增长质量:理论分析与计量检验

本文提出有效的制度变迁是经济增长质量变化的重要原因这一假说,论述了制度变迁对经济增长质量的作用机理,并依据1992-2007年数据检验了二者长期因果关系。结论是制度变迁是中国经济增长质量的长期格兰杰原因。中国经济增长质量总体呈上升趋势,但与经济增长速度并不同步。提高经济增长质量需要从制度方面加以型塑,逐步实现经济增长与质量提高进行同步。     

公用事业改革的权利结构变动:比较与选择

SSP范式有助于我们理解公用事业改革的不同模式绩效。以竞争市场结构替代垄断的市场结构,以私有产权替代公有产权,以出让经营权的方式对公用事业进行改革在理论与实践上都存在若干负面影响。走融资之路既可以解决经营公用事业所面临的资金困难问题,又可以避免其他模式的负面影响,是适合当前中国公用事业改革的一种模式。     

新疆人口素质及其变化对区域经济发展的影响研究

本文利用最新的新疆1%人口抽样调查资料,对新疆人口文化素质及其变化进行了分析.在此基础上,进一步探讨了人口素质及其变化对新疆区域经济发展的影响效应,提出了进一步提高新疆的入口素质和促进入口与区域经济协调发展的路径.     

效率:国企改革清晰和单一的目标--新形势下国企改革思路框架的几点思考

公正与效率是人类社会所追求的两个基本目标。国有企业一直以来被视为一种特殊的企业,其被赋予的经验目标混合着经济,政治,社会等各种目标,涵盖了公正与效率两个方面,从而造成了短期博弈,预算软约束,激励不兼容等种种问题。“三个代表”思想及加入WTO,使得我国国企的目标清晰化和单一代成为可能并显得必要,而将效率作为国企清晰和单一的目标这一改革思路的确立,想念可以为国企改革开拓出许多新路。     

我国公司购并行为的成本——收益分析:一个模型

购并是一种进行成本－收益比较之和一组新契约代替旧契约的投资行为。预期收益是否大于成本是购并方行为选择的依据。我国公司购并行为受到了来自契约双方当事人－中央政府、地方政府和目标公司利益倾向的约束,并由于我国特定的制度背影和市场条件而产生了特定的收益和成本。在此基础上,本文提出了我国公司购并行为的成本收益分析模型,它不仅是购并方行为决策的依据,它的解还是取得购并成功的条件,具有很强的应用性和实践性。     

Welfare Reform and the Well-Being of Single Female-Headed Families: A Semi-Parametric Analysis

Single female-headed families with children (SFHFwC) have historically been the primary recipients of federal public cash assistance payments in the United States. Recent welfare reform initiatives established work requirements and cumulative time limits on public cash assistance payments. Three findings in this paper have significant implications for the long-term efficacy of welfare reform initiatives. First, SFHFwC made significant and broad-based gains in their economic well-being from 1993 to 1999. Second, increased propensities of single mothers to leave welfare and enter the workforce from 1993 to 1999, behavior consistent with incentives created by welfare reform measures, do not account for a major portion of these observed gains. Third, improved area economic conditions and increased educational levels of single mothers account for a major share of gains in well-being.     

Kenneth Boulding's Theories of Evolutionary Economics and Organizational Change: A Reconstruction

I identify a discrepancy between Kenneth Boulding's wide-ranging contributions to evolutionary economics and his professed ecological approach to it. I argue that Boulding has undersold his true contributions to evolutionary economics by trying to embed them into the ecological approach. I endeavor to overcome this discrepancy by differentiating between two types of evolutionary change analyzed in Boulding's writings: ecological change and civilizational change. In contrast to ecological change, civilizational change entails the possibility for the evolving system to overstrain the carrying capacity of the environment, thus suggesting the precarious relationship between civilizational complexity and sustainability. This argument sheds new light on Boulding's theory of “social organizers,” such as exchange, threat, and the integrative system. Boulding's understanding of civilizational change envisages the key role of threat and exchange in enabling civilizational complexity, while the integrative system is called upon to make this complexity sustainable.