Labor Market Segmentation and Job-Related Risk

A bstract . Labor market segmentation theory calls into question the neoclassical theory of compensating wage differentials , which posits that workers are compensated for job-related risk. From the perspective of segmentation theory , one would expect secondary workers to experience greater risk on the job with less likelihood of compensation. An empirical examination of worker samples, using discriminant analysis to construct primary and secondary subsamples, reveals that the wages of primary workers vary directly with the probability of job related death, injury and disease. No such relationship holds for secondary workers , who are also shown to experience significantly higher levels of job related risk and disamenity than their primary counterparts.     

概率中的几何概型与古典概型的“误”与“悟”

本文在解决古典概型与几何概型求概率的问题上给出了详细的分析,从怎样区分所给问题是否为古典概型还是几何概型,以及对两种概型具体应如何解决问题求概率给出了详细的阐述。     

From cause to effect and from effect to cause

The theory of probability employs a deductive method of thinking which traces effect from cause. Statistics uses an inductive method of thinking and tries to trace cause from effect. This noble goal can be successfully achieved if and only if a researcher deals with a homogeneous data set. A homogeneous data set is generated logically and then it is to be tested statistically. The homogeneity principle bridges the gap between probability theory and applied statistics and makes statistics as precise as the theory of probability. In this role statistics opens new horizons for estimating parameters when the central limit theorem is not applied.     

Are CEOs expected utility maximizers?

Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative sense, at stake are the fundamental underpinnings of the bulk of the last half-century’s models of choice under uncertainty. From a positive perspective, the ubiquitous use of benefit-cost analysis across government agencies renders the expected utility maximization paradigm literally the only game in town. In this study, we advance the literature by exploring CEO’s preferences over small probability, high loss lotteries. Using undergraduate students as our experimental control group, we find that both our CEO and student subject pools exhibit frequent and large departures from expected utility theory. In addition, as the extreme payoffs become more likely CEOs exhibit greater aversion to risk. Our results suggest that use of the expected utility paradigm in decision making substantially underestimates society’s willingness to pay to reduce risk in small probability, high loss events.     

Statistische eigenschappen van een vlambeveiliging met behulp van een gasontladingsbuis welke gevoelig is voor ultraviolet licht

Summary The output voltage of a detector circuit containing a gas-filled tube sensitive to ultraviolet radiation can be used to indicate whether a flame is still burning or not. As long as the flame is burning the random nature of the discharges of the tube leads to random fluctuations in the output voltage, which can be considered as a Markov-process with dependent increments. The problem is to select an alarm level for the output voltage with a suitable chosen probability of exceedance while the flame is burning, in order to limit the probability of false alarm. In this article a method is given for determining upper and lower bounds for the distribution function of the output voltage at any moment, answering the question of the alarm level to be chosen. Results are given for a special circuit.     

Statistische eigenschappen van een vlambeveiliging met behulp van een gasontladingsbuis welke gevoelig is voor ultraviolet licht

Summary  The output voltage of a detector circuit containing a gas-filled tube sensitive to ultraviolet radiation can be used to indicate whether a flame is still burning or not. As long as the flame is burning the random nature of the discharges of the tube leads to random fluctuations in the output voltage, which can be considered as a Markov-process with dependent increments. The problem is to select an alarm level for the output voltage with a suitable chosen probability of exceedance while the flame is burning, in order to limit the probability of false alarm. In this article a method is given for determining upper and lower bounds for the distribution function of the output voltage at any moment, answering the question of the alarm level to be chosen. Results are given for a special circuit.     

Duality between direct and indirect utility functions: Differentiability properties

Duality in consumer theory and production theory has been actively investigated in the last decades. This paper responds to the question: ‘On what conditions on the primal function can be ensured the differentiability of the dual function?’     

Catastrophe Theory: Implications for Probability

ABSTRACT The work of Rene Thom relating to catastrophe theory has influenced probability theory Since so much of the research conducted by social scientists depends on calculating the probability that events will occur, an introduction to catastrophe theory is needed By discussing the social implications of the position outlined by Thom, social scientists will better understand the difficulties associated with generating probability statements     

对经营风险导向审计的反思

本文对经营风险导向审计的理论和方法进行了较全面的分析，指出经营风险导向审计的理论与方法体系严重脱节，难以指导实践；经营风险导向审计作为一种技术方法，难以规避审计失败，改变了审计的本质特征。     

Evolutionary stability of prospect theory preferences

We demonstrate that in simple 2×2 games (cumulative) prospect theory preferences can be (semi-)evolutionarily stable, in particular, a population of players with prospect theory preferences is stable against more rational players, i.e. players with a smaller degree of probability weighting. We also show that in a typical game with infinitely many strategies, the “war of attrition”, probability weighting is (semi-)evolutionarily stable. Finally, we generalize to other notions of stability. Our results may help to explain why probability weighting is generally observed in humans, although it is not optimal in usual decision problems.     

基于客流和消费水平随机变化的社区服务网点规模及盈利条件分析

基于影响服务网点利润的客流量和消费水平两个随机因素进行分析,运用概率论相关理论,给出了服务网点销售额和利润的概率分布,由此确定投资规模及盈利条件。     

Communities Of Practice, Foucault And Actor-Network Therory

The paper discusses some of the main contributions to the theory of communities of practice (COP theory), especially as it relates to organizational learning. The paper does not attempt a full overview but concentrates on the notion of power relations. Early COP theory was formulated as part of situated learning theory, and promised to work on issues of social context and unequal power relations. Foucault's work and actor-network theory (ANT) is introduced and forms the basis of a constructive critique of COP theory. The paper argues that COP theory and ANT can enrich each other and together make a stronger contribution to our understanding of organizational learning. Specifically, these perspectives question the value in viewing organizations as formal, canonical entities as far as learning and change are concerned.     

概率论在几个经济生活问题上的应用

在经济生活中概率论的运用范围很广,作用效果显著。本文通过运用概率论的基本思想和研究方法针对三个经济问题方面给予一定的解答,为我们做出正确理智的判断提供更具权威性的意见。     

基于混沌情景预测方法的微博信息扩散建模与仿真研究

本文用混沌理论方法针对微博信息扩散的必要性与可行性进行研究,基于混沌情景预测方法构建了微博信息扩散的仿真模型,并对微博信息扩散进行仿真。仿真结果表明,看似随机的微博信息扩散方式,实际具有内在规律。用户接收并转发的概率具,增加用户转发概率更有助于微博信息的扩散与传播。本文的研究对了解网络信息的扩散机制和影响因素有一定的现实意义。     

The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis

We consider the question whether top tennis players in a top tournament (Wimbledon) employ an optimal (efficient) service strategy. While we show that top players do not, in general, follow an optimal strategy, our principal result is that the estimated inefficiencies are not large: the inefficiency regarding winning a point on service is on average 1.1% for men and 2.0% for women, implying that–by adopting an efficient service strategy–players can (on average) increase the probability of winning a match by 2.4%-points for men and 3.2%-points for women. While the inefficiencies may seem small, the financial consequences for the efficient player at Wimbledon can be substantial: the expected paycheck could rise by 18.7% for men and even by 32.8% for women. We use these findings to shed some light on the question of whether economic agents are successful optimizers.     

误差的概念,指标及测量结果表达方法的探讨

误差的概念、指标和测量结果的表达是误差理论中仍具有争议的基本问题，影响着误差理论的完善。通过对误差概念和指标的论述，确定了误差的母概念的衡量指标，建立了误差的概念体系。指出了测量结果表达方法存在的问题，给出了测量结果的合理表达式。     

效用理论在飞行安全风险评估中的应用

为科学划分飞行安全风险等级,将效用理论引入飞行安全风险领域,利用效用函数,建立了飞行安全风险评估模型。在分析飞行安全风险的基础上,通过定义事故或危险事件损失效应,选取合适的效用函数进行飞行安全风险的度量。模型有效区分了类似飞行事故这样高损失、低概率事件与飞行事故征候这样低损失、高概率事件风险之间的差异,克服了期望值法的局限性。最后通过实例验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。     

创新型管理人才的培养

高校为企业培养管理人才存在创新性不足和创新能力缺失的问题。采用智力激发式教学,不仅能培养学生自主学习,激活学生对知识的兴趣与追求,而且为今后进入社会以及提高创新能力创造了条件。     

基于产品生命周期的顾客忠诚意图动态演化模型研究

本文将委托-代理理论和关系营销理论相结合发展了一个顾客-品牌关系形成过程的概念化模型以探讨品牌忠诚的生成机理。根据逆向选择和道德风险的委托代理问题,品牌信号和品牌溢价可以作为解决上述问题的策略。然而,上述策略本身并没有减轻消费者对品牌所提供利益的不确定性和对企业采取机会主义的担心。因此,文章认为顾客对品牌的信任机制才是减少不确定性和机会主义的核心构件。