Some recent views on probability and induction

Being convinced that scientific methodology cannot avoid the use of inductive methods, and that the problem of the justification of induction represents a genuine epistemological problem, a careful consideration of which is indispensable to every investigation concerning scientific inference, both from a general point of view, and with particular reference to social sciences; in this paper we give an account of what seems to us the best attempt to solve this problem. We are referring to the pragmatic approach, which has been elaborated withing the frequency interpretation or probability. We will present the pragmatic justification of induction, starting with Reichenbach's argument, and dealing in particular with the most recent developments of this approach, mainly due to W.C. Salmon. In the last section, we will outline the main problems left unsolved by Salmon's arguments.     

Epistemological reasons for preferring component analysis to factor analysis

Spearman's and Thomson's mathematical controversy over factor theory was forgotten when it became evident that empirical tetrad-differences bound away from zero (and when empirical evidence argued the need for extracting more factors from a matrix). In fact, both their models lead to zero tetraddifferences. Being more interested in the psychological than in the mathematical aspects of Spearman's model. Thompson remained indifferent to mathematical aspects of multiple factor analysis when Thurstone theorized it. Thus, he did not perceive that his counter-example negated the assumption Thrustone shared the rank of the matrix. The idea that components to be extracted must be equal to the rank of the matrix is not assumed in Hotelling's component model: as a result, this is the first epistemological reason for preferring component analysis to factor analysis. A second epistemological reason is the central theorem of Thurstone's multiple-factor model, which can be criticized because it is an assumption that, the rank of a complete matrix being n, it becomes k when commonalities are in the principal diagonal. This assumption goes against common sense, a fact demonstrated through comparison between residuals after k components have been extracted and after k principal factors have been extracted.     

‘A life on the ocean wave’: the ‘post-socialist’ careers of Chinese,Russian and Eastern European seafarers

The emergence of the global labour market (GLM) provides a novel platform for young professional workers to design and develop their careers. This is particularly true for those from China, the former Soviet Union and other Eastern European countries, where economic liberation has made it easier for professionals to move both internally and internationally. Taking into account national variations in economic transition and political constraints, several questions are raised. How does the GLM, for example, influence its choice of employers and career development? What are the similarities and differences between Chinese and Eastern European seafarers? What factors contribute to these differences? Those questions are addressed here, through a study of the case of seafarers for whom a global labour market has been established since the 1980s. By collecting crew information worldwide, a global seafarer database has been built in the Seafarers' International Research Centre (SIRC) at Cardiff University. Accordingly, this paper develops a methodological framework for analysing and comparing seafarers' careers, and revealing the features of career development amongst four major seafarer supplier countries: China, Russia, the Ukraine and Poland.     

THE IMF: A BIRD'S EYE VIEW OF ITS ROLE AND OPERATIONS

Abstract The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the world's premier international financial institution with 184 member countries and active programmes in a significant number of them at any one time. The Fund attracts a great deal of attention, much of it critical. But the discussion is often polemic in style. Strongly held, but frequently opposing, views are expressed. This survey attempts to examine, in an objective way, the theory and evidence relating to the Fund's operations. Many aspects of the empirical research are relatively recent and a universal consensus is yet to emerge; as a consequence there is scope for disagreement to persist. However, the research is also gradually clarifying many important issues. The format for the survey is to examine the life cycle of IMF arrangements. What makes a country turn to the Fund for assistance? Should the IMF be lending? What influences the outcome of negotiations and the design of programmes? Are IMF programmes effective? And why do some countries make prolonged use of IMF resources? For completeness there is also some discussion of the history of the IMF, the extent to which Fund policies have been influenced by advances in economic theory and the Fund's systemic role. Important organisational and governance issues are also covered briefly. Although primarily adopting an economist's perspective, the survey reflects the growing recognition that in order to understand the IMF's operations, economics has to be combined with politics. Examining the IMF is an exercise in applied political economy.     

On sellers' cooperation in hybrid marketplaces

Hybrid marketplaces, such as Amazon's and Zalando's stores or Apple's and Google's app stores, which distribute their own products and services in competition with those of third-party sellers, play a significant and growing role in the Internet economy. This paper shows that, other things equal, such platforms would maximize their profits if they lowered the fees charged to sellers and the prices charged to consumers in response to cooperation agreements between third-party sellers: horizontal mergers or collusive agreements. It also shows that such cooperation can be pro-competitive when the platform is a vertically integrated gatekeeper, adopts the agency business model, is a close competitor to the third-party sellers it hosts, and observes (or correctly anticipates) the third-party sellers' agreement. The discussion here is of significant policy relevance, since third-party sellers in online marketplaces may find it easier to collude and may respond to the bargaining power of certain gatekeeper platforms by merging their activities.     

Forecasting elections in Turkey

This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors.

“…why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this.”Özdemir ?nce, 17 August 2007, Hürriyet, emphasis added.

     

Confirmation and qualitative evidence-instances: justifying the use of qualitative research methods

This article is a preliminary attempt in outlining the directions for a new approach in confirming qualitative research findings. The basic argument is that traditional Confirmation Theory may be applied to establish a firmer epistemological foundation for the acceptance of hypotheses within qualitative-ethnographic research. While all aspects of Confirmation Theory are not applicable to the qualitative case, because the probability calculus is not used in qualitative studies, the basic logical framework of this theory, nevertheless, may be utilized to establish the credibility of qualitative findings. It is argued, therefore, that qualitative research findings, as they bear on the confirmation issue, may be properly considered as a sub-set of traditional Confirmation Theory. To do this, however, requires the development of certain justification rules unique to qualitative research. Some of these rules are developed, and an attempt is made to show how they conform to Hempel's classic development of confirmation.     

Staging Equality in Greek Squares: Hybrid Spaces of Political Subjectification

This article stages a dialogue between Jacques Rancière's political writings and the squares movement in Greece. From May to July 2011, a heterogeneous multitude of protesters reclaimed the squares of the country from their allocation in the police order and articulated a multiplicity of divergent discursive, organizational and spatial repertoires. This was an urban political event that reasserted the importance of urban spaces in expressing political dissent and experimented with new ways of being and acting in common. This article draws on Rancière's conceptualization of politics to read the squares movement as an opening of spaces of political subjectification. At the same time, through a close ethnography of the squares, it highlights the tensions that marked this process and focuses on two of these: the coexistence of nationalist and equalibertarian discursive and performative repertoires and the co‐implication of horizontal and vertical organizational practices. The article builds on this analysis to argue that the squares movement opened hybrid spaces of political subjectification and to explore some of the tensions in Rancière's political writings. This reading, in turn, informs a discussion of the legacies of the squares movement.     

Time series analysis

Time series analysis has undergone radical changes in recent years. The objectives of time series analysis remain the same, but the techniques have changed. Box and Jenkins (1968, 1970; see also Nelson, 1973) particularly have introduced a class of models which have a wide variety of applications in time series modelling. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relevance of their approach to political science, to introduce their techniques to the student unfamiliar with their work, and to discuss future developments in this area in relation to political science methodology. The sections involve an analysis of their approach, then an example of their model building strategy applied to poll data and, finally, a discussion of future developments. But before embarking on the main discussion it is useful to examine the objectives of time series analysis in general and to distinguish it from other areas of statistical analysis in the social sciences.     

EFFECT OF CORPORATE SCIENTISTS ON FIRMS’ INNOVATION ACTIVITY: A LITERATURE REVIEW

This study reviews the literature on the effect of corporate scientists on firms’ innovation activities. Traditionally, the scientist's role in a firm is linked to the processes of generation and absorption of scientific knowledge. However, a growing number of studies over the years show that the scientist's role in firm innovation processes is more extensive and that they contribute to the development of successful new products, processes and services. However, there are no comprehensive reviews of this literature. This paper fills the gap by providing a systematic review of the empirical literature on the role of the corporate scientists in the innovation process by investigating: (1) theoretical approaches used to evaluate the impact of scientists, (2) the importance for the firm's innovation activity of scientists’ heterogeneity, (3) those firm innovation activities over which scientists exhibit more influence, (4) the variables moderating the effect of scientists and (5) research implications for managers.     

Privatisation of the Royal Mail: Third Time Lucky?

The Conservatives privatised most of the UK's state‐owned industries during the 1980s and 1990s, but the Royal Mail remained under public ownership. It was privatised through a public flotation in early October 2013 when around 70 per cent of the company's shares were sold by the government. This paper looks at the reasons why the enterprise was not sold earlier. It especially focuses on the failed attempt to privatise it in 1993/4, although other occasions when privatisation was contemplated are mentioned. The discussion draws on government papers that are closed to the public under the 30‐year rule but to which the author had access as the UK government's Official Historian of Privatisation. The study demonstrates that in the past a combination of lukewarm support for privatisation at the prime ministerial level, concerns about the political consequences (including a possible revolt in Parliament), and trade union opposition proved decisive in preventing privatisation of the Royal Mail.     

Privacy concerns,internal political efficacy,intrusiveness, and voter resistance to the acceptance of political mobile marketing campaigns

Political parties increasingly rely on information systems‐based approaches to present their messages, engender voter participation, and solicit voter support. Although research is being conducted on how mobile devices, mobile Internet, and social media are used to galvanize voters' participation in the political process, there is an observable dearth of research on how the use of these approaches by politicians might be resisted by voters. This study examines the antecedents of voter resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns with a conceptual model, and it employs reactance and internal political efficacy theories. Data for the empirical testing of the conceptual model were obtained through a survey of 971 South African voters. The findings of the study suggest that the proposed model provides a reasonable explanation of voter resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns and identifies privacy concerns, intrusiveness, and internal political efficacy as salient factors underlying voter resistance to political mobile marketing. The findings further suggest that internal political efficacy significantly moderates and reinforces the positive impact of privacy concerns on resistance. These findings provide important guidelines for reducing voters' resistance to political mobile marketing campaigns. They also provide a point of departure for future research into this relatively unexplored but potentially fertile domain.     

Correction of errors in Vetschera's (2004) model of behavioral uncertainty and investment

Modelling of behavioural uncertainty has been a concern for researchers for some time. This paper briefly reviews modelling related to uncertainty and the focuses on the model presented by Vetschera (2004). A model of decision behaviour has been developed in the paper with regard to investment and cooperation taking into account the uncertainty and lack of information. The model is an important contribution for it focuses on situations that are not usual to the normal principle agent problems. The present review however reveals some errors in the paper. Sometimes errors may appear editorial but the same errors may lead the interested reader or researcher to inappropriate paths, particularly those who may fail to follow an argument or comprehend the underlying meanings of the equations and analytical solutions. In this manner, further work on this important topic may be hindered if researchers accept forms as presented in the paper literally as facts to further work. The main contribution of this paper is that it presents the correct forms of the mathematical aspects and procedures of the Vetschera (2004) paper. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recovering Sociology from the Trash Heap: Of Waste Politics and the Spatialization of Local Representation in Lagos

This article excavates the debate that unfolded during the 1980s between Jacques Rancière and Pierre Bourdieu to shed light on the theoretical divide that still cuts across the field of urban studies today. Looking at contemporary Rancièrian scholarship through a Bourdieusian lens, it points to their main theoretical shortcomings and reasserts the value of relational, field‐based and empirically grounded approaches to urban politics. At the same time, this article engages seriously Rancière's critique of Bourdieu's failure to account for space in order to question the territoriality inherent to the notion of field. We put this theoretical discussion to the test of Lagos's garbage. Drawing on an ethnographic study conducted in Lagos from 2015 to 2016, we propose analyzing the process of spatialization of the field of local representation by looking at the ways solid waste—here conceived as a political opportunity—is mobilized by different actors. We argue that the deployment of a waste infrastructure in Lagos is congruent with a relative disinvestment in practices of territorial control that reshapes the structure of local representation, reconfiguring the ‘stage’ on which politics is played out in the Nigerian metropolis.     

Computer ethics in a different voice

This paper argues that the potential of writing on computer ethics to contribute to a deeper understanding of inequalities surrounding the use of information and communications technologies is threatened by forms of technological determinism and liberalism. Such views are prevalent in professional and more popular literature, and even in policy documents, albeit expressed tacitly. Adopting this standpoint substantially reduces explanatory power in relation to certain computer ethics topics, especially equality and participation, particularly in relation to gender. Research on gender and information and communications technologies has analyzed inequalities between men and women both inside and outside the workplace, drawing heavily from feminist theory. The paper argues that feminist ethics, coupled with aspects of feminist legal and political theory, may offer a fruitful, novel direction for analyzing computer ethics problems, and certainly those that contain substantial differences, and therefore inequalities, in men's and women's experiences on-line. Furthermore, feminist ethics can offer a more collectivist approach toward computer ethics problems. Emerging themes in existing research on gender and computer ethics are discussed before exploring some of the outcomes of applying feminist theory to a problem of privacy in the extreme form of Internet-based harassment known as “cyberstalking”, where traditional liberal and determinist views have proved problematic.     

Modeling institutional evolution

This paper proposes a formal framework to analyze the process of institutional evolution in relation with economic progress. Institutions have both formal (F) and informal (N) aspects that may exhibit varying processes of change. N is hypothesized to evolve with the level of capital stock, as in learning by doing, whereas F is chosen optimally by a government that maximizes output subject to social and political costs. F and N together define the production technology and affect the income level. Consistent with evidence, simulations of the model's solution reveal that optimum F exhibits a punctuated pattern.     

The Immoral Economy of Housing in Turkey

This paper presents an examination of the political, social and economic coordinates of informal housing in Turkey within an analytical framework in which the complex interaction between the organizing principles of reciprocity, redistribution and exchange is taken into account. The discussion is centered on two ideas: (1) both redistribution and reciprocity incorporate a moral principle which can be defined as ‘the unequal treatment of the unequal’ as opposed to the moral neutrality of market exchange which takes place between formally equal trading partners; and (2) in certain contexts where redistributive processes are not institutionalized in a rule-based, depersonalized manner but involve relations which take place within informal networks of reciprocity, the element of moral relativity that forms their basis might lead to situations where they lose their legitimacy and generate negative social consequences. The paper thus introduces a moral dimension into the discussion of informal sector activity by complementing Karl Polanyi's approach with Marshall Sahlins' typology of different types of reciprocity and shows that particular systems of redistribution might lead to the emergence of forms of negative reciprocity which shape both the market and the political process in a highly undesirable manner. Cet article présente un examen des coordonnées politiques, sociales et économiques du logement informel en Turquie, utilisant un modèle analytique dans lequel l'influence mutuelle entre les principes d'organisation, de réciprocité, de redistribution et d'échange, est prise en considération. La discussion porte sur deux idées: (1) la redistribution et la réciprocité comprennent toutes deux un principe moral qui peut être défini comme ‘le traitement inégal de l'inégal’, par opposition à la moralité neutre de l'échange de marché qui prend place entre des partenaires de commerce formellement égaux; et (2) dans certains contextes, lorsque les processus redistributifs ne sont pas institutionnalisés d'une façon formelle et impersonnelle mais incluent des relations qui prennent place dans des réseaux informels de reciprocité, l'élément de relativité morale qui forme leur base pourrait conduire à des situations où ils perdraient leur légitimité et auraient des conséquences sociales négatives. Cet article introduit donc une dimension morale à la discussion de l'activité du secteur informel en complémentant l'approche de Karl Polanyi avec la typologie des différents types de réciprocité de Marshall Sahlins, et montre que certains syst èmes de redistribution pourraient conduire à la naissance de formes de réciprocité négatives qui modèleraient de manière hautement indésirable et le processus du marché et le processus politique.     

Promising Futures: CMS,Post‐Disciplinarity,and the New Public Social Science

This paper considers the future prospects for Critical Management Studies and by extension management studies more generally. To explore these, two frameworks from the wider social sciences are deployed. The anchorpoint for the discussion is Michael Burawoy's work distinguishing types of scholarship on the bases of (a) conceptions of knowledge produced by social scientists, and (b) different audiences for that knowledge. Critical Management Studies is founded on critique but its future will be determined by how it makes its way across Burawoy's other domains of professional, policy and public scholarship. To examine this, I draw on John Brewer's recent articulation of the ‘new public social science’. Brewer's problem‐driven, post‐disciplinary approach conceives the public value of social science as its conservation of moral sentiments and sympathetic imagination towards each other as social beings, and its ethical concern about the humanitarian future of humankind. The new public social science is normative and partisan, transgressive, scientific, and impactful. I argue that this provides a potentially fruitful template to guide future management studies. This is a future in which Critical Management Studies – as management studies' critical and emancipatory conscience – has a central role to play.     

Clubs in an urban setting

In this paper the properties of a congestable concentrated local public good (CCoLPG) are described, taking into account both locational aspects and congestion. This discussion, therefore, completes the analysis of congestable local public goods (LPG) which was started in our earlier paper (Congestable local public goods in an urban setting, J. Urban Econ., 290–310 (1982). It is here shown that the optimal provision of CCoLPG leads to the creation of clubs, where the government has to determine the location and provide the optimal quantity of LPG in each club and also levy congestion tolls on users according to their level of utilization of the club. Congestion tolls cover the αest part of the costs, where α is the level of congestability of the CCoLPG. The rest of the costs are covered by taxing land rents. Clubs will form, possibly more than one per city, even if the LPG is pure (i.e., α = 0) and they will contain a single household if the LPG is private (i.e., α = 1). The difference between these results and those of classical club theorists stem from the fact that here we also take into account the limited supply of land of given accessibility (i.e., locational aspects), which like congestion lead to the creation of clubs. When these two factors are considered together, it explains why congestion tolls alone are not sufficient to finance clubs' operations, or why pure LPGs also have to be provided locally, etc.     

Culture in the Rise of Tiger Economies: Scottish Expatriates in Dublin and the ‘Creative Class’ Thesis

This article evaluates the contributions which Richard Florida's seminal ‘creative class’ thesis might make to ongoing efforts to re‐inscribe ‘culture’ back into political economy explanations of the rise of Tiger economies. It reflects upon the value of reconsidering both the role of skilled migrants in Tiger states and the factors which attract skilled migrants to these economies in the first instance. Based upon analyses of a series of focus groups conducted with Scottish expatriates currently working in Dublin, the article specifically attempts to gauge how far the creative class thesis can be stretched to account for the locational preferences of talented migrants. Whilst Florida's work undoubtedly sheds light on aspects of expatriate existence which might not otherwise have been obvious, its ability to account for the relationships which have existed between technology, talent and tolerance in the Celtic Tiger must be questioned. Moreover, if political economy and Floridian readings are to do more than simply inform one another, there will be a need to establish more clearly the complex ways in which developmental states intersect with skill flows and cosmopolitan cultural agendas.