交叉上市、信息不对称与风险特征

本文以"A+H"交叉上市公司价格差异为研究对象,对A股、H股股票价格之间差异及其变化进行研究。根据对36家A+H股上市公司近期9个月溢价水平的分析发现,信息不对称理论能够解释AH股溢价扩大的现象,投资者与公司之间信息不对称问题得到缓解的趋势不明显,反而有所强化;国有股特征导致AH溢价缩小,海外投资者对国有股份的认同度提升;流动性理论、不同风险偏好理论不能解释AH溢价变化,数据分析支持信息不对称理论、风险特征理论和需求理论。     

市场互联、风险溢出与金融稳定——基于股票市场与债券市场溢出效应分析的视角

评估债券市场互联互通进程中的风险溢出效应,对于进一步完善中国金融制度改革具有积极的参考意义。本文基于Copula理论研究了2002～2009年间股票市场与债券市场的风险溢出效应及其状态转换特征,研究结果表明:股票市场与债券市场联动效应总体不显著;随着中国金融市场统一步伐的加快,投资者可以通过跨市场套利交易来优化资源配置,使得股票市场与债券市场之间表现为"跷跷板"效应;相对分割的债券市场避免了极端条件下系统性风险的相互传染,使得股票市场与债券市场尾部相关性独立,客观上有助于维护金融稳定。     

疫情冲击下全球股市的风险溢出效应研究

本文通过构建全球股市风险溢出网络,测度疫情期间全球股市风险溢出强度,研究各国股市风险的传递方向及溢出机制;通过与2008年金融危机的横向比较以及全样本纵向分析,探究不同阶段全球股市风险溢出效应的差异.研究发现:(1)疫情期间全球股市风险总溢出强度先上升后下降,其强度明显高于2008年金融危机与全样本均值.(2)不同时期全球股市风险溢出中心存在差异,中国是全球股市的主要风险接受国.金融危机时期,美国是全球股市单一的风险溢出中心;疫情期间,疫情严重的欧洲国家成为全球股市的风险溢出中心.     

疫情冲击下全球股市的风险溢出效应研究

本文通过构建全球股市风险溢出网络,测度疫情期间全球股市风险溢出强度,研究各国股市风险的传递方向及溢出机制;通过与2008年金融危机的横向比较以及全样本纵向分析,探究不同阶段全球股市风险溢出效应的差异.研究发现:(1)疫情期间全球股市风险总溢出强度先上升后下降,其强度明显高于2008年金融危机与全样本均值.(2)不同时期全球股市风险溢出中心存在差异,中国是全球股市的主要风险接受国.金融危机时期,美国是全球股市单一的风险溢出中心;疫情期间,疫情严重的欧洲国家成为全球股市的风险溢出中心.     

我国金融市场间风险传染与系统性风险溢出效应——基于银行、证券、保险市场的E-CoVaR模型分析

本文运用E-CoVaR模型,结合分位数回归技术,测度了我国银行、证券和保险市场之间的风险传染强度以及各金融市场系统性风险溢出效应,并探明了各金融市场系统性风险溢出效应随经济形势变化的规律。研究结果表明:总体来看,银行市场的风险传染强度和系统性风险贡献度最大,证券市场其次,保险市场再次;从动态分析来看,我国金融市场的系统性风险贡献度与市场繁荣程度正相关,在金融危机期处于较高水平。     

中国行业间上下行风险溢出效应研究

本文将行业波动分解为低波动和高波动,分别代表上行风险和下行风险,基于Elastic-Net-VARX模型,在控制国际冲击的影响下,构建了中国经济金融体系的行业风险溢出网络,从静态和动态两个层面分析中国行业间风险总溢出及方向性溢出水平,并探究各行业上下行风险溢出差异及传染特征。研究发现：第一,中国经济金融体系的上下行风险呈现明显的跨行业传染特征,工业是系统中最主要的风险输出者,可选消费是最主要的风险接收者;第二,上下行风险溢出效应具有显著的非对称性,下行风险溢出溢入水平高于上行风险,并且上行风险的溢出源头是金融行业,下行风险的溢出源头是实体行业;第三,相较于溢入效应,下行与上行风险溢出效应的差异更明显,其中,信息技术、通信服务与可选消费行业的下行风险溢出明显高于上行风险,但金融行业的上行风险溢出显著高于下行风险。本文为监管部门准确把握系统性风险传染源头,制定差异化的上下行风险防控措施提供可行建议。     

交叉上市效应的文献综述

交叉上市自提出至今已将近三十年,由起初的动因发展到其产生的效果,已渐渐成熟。本文梳理了市场分割假说、流动性假说、投资者认知假说、声誉假说以及溢出效应等理论并进行评述,在文献评述的基础上对未来这一领域的研究趋势进行展望。     

国际石油价格波动对中国股票市场的风险溢出效应

由于交易时间上的不对称,采用非对称性调整方法对上证指数进行了滞后1期的调整,在此基础上,对非对称性调整前后的数据分别采用了Granger因果关系检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数(IRF)、预测误差方差分解(FEVD)的方法以及MGARCH-BEKK(1,1)模型对纽约商业交易所(NYMEX)的西德克萨斯州中质油现货价格日对数收益率和上证指数日对数收益率之间的均值溢出效应和波动率溢出效应进行分析研究。研究结果表明,总体来说,两市收益率之间的风险溢出效应十分微弱和不稳定,但从2007年开始,这种风险溢出效应变得更显著,主要表现在WTI原油市场对上证指数具有正的均值溢出效应和正的波动率溢出效应。     

Cross-Listing, Bonding Hypothesis and Corporate Governance

Abstract:  This paper examines the relationship between cross-listing and corporate governance for Canadian firms, that were cross-listed on US stock exchanges during the period 1997–2003. We find that cross-listed firms have more independent boards and audit committees after the listing relative to a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms and relative to the pre-listing period. Moreover, cross-listed firms experience changes in their ownership structure after the listing. Finally, we provide evidence that the sensitivity of the relation between cross-listed firm valuation with audit committee independence and ownership structure becomes more important after the listing. The results are robust after adjusting for various firm risk characteristics. Overall, the results are consistent with the literature on the bonding role of cross-listings on US stock exchanges.     

Cross-Listing and Operating Performance: Evidence from Exchange-Listed American Depositary Receipts

Abstract:  In this paper we examine the operating performance of non-US firms that enter major US stock exchanges using American Depositary Receipt (ADR) programs. Our dataset consists of 108 capital-raising and non-capital-raising firms from twenty four countries, cross-listed on major US stock exchanges during the period 1994–2004. We provide evidence that capital-raising cross-listed firms experience improvements in their operating performance after the listing, relative to a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms and relative to the pre-listing period, whereas non-capital-raising cross-listed firms out-perform a non-cross-listed matched sample of firms for both the pre-listing and the post-listing periods. These results suggest that the type of ADR program conveys information about changes in the post-listing operating performance. Moreover, both capital-raising and non-capital-raising cross-listed firms have positive abnormal returns due to the cross-listing and these abnormal returns are positively related with the post-listing abnormal changes in operating performance, suggesting that the market anticipates the post-listing abnormal changes in operating performance. Results are robust after adjusting for various firm and country risk characteristics.     

重大突发事件背景下金融行业间极端风险相依和风险溢出研究

金融行业的风险问题关系到金融稳定和经济安全.构建包含利空消息和利好消息的时变Copula-CoVaR模型,结合金融危机、股市震荡、贸易摩擦、疾病疫情等重大突发事件,考量金融行业之间的极端风险相依结构和风险溢出效应及其动态演化过程.结果表明,金融行业间风险相依和风险溢出均具有显著的厚尾性、非对称性和时变性特征,同时存在显著的动态极端风险相依和风险溢出,且下尾风险相依和风险溢出的程度更大,对市场行情下跌的反应更为敏感;银行业在整个金融系统中发挥着至关重要的作用,其对证券业、保险业和其他金融业的极端风险相依和风险溢出均处于较高水平;不同时期的重大突发事件对金融行业间极端风险相依和风险溢出的影响存在明显差异,事发后风险相依变化较为平缓,而风险溢出急剧加强并表现出持续性.     

极端风险事件下股票市场与公司债券市场的尾部风险溢出研究——基于MVMQ-CAViaR模型

构建MVMQ-CAViaR模型,结合金融市场内部极端风险事件和外部极端风险事件,考量股票市场与公司债券市场的尾部风险溢出问题。结果表明,在金融市场内部极端风险事件下,股灾期间仅存在股票市场对公司债券市场单向的尾部风险溢出。公司债券违约潮期间,股票市场与公司债券市场之间存在双向不对称的尾部风险溢出,且公司债券市场对股票市...     

动态视角下房地产贷款对银行业系统性风险溢出研究

基于Credit Metrics模型动态度量房地产贷款信用风险,运用双重ΔCoVaR模型分析框架量化其对单家银行风险的影响,以及对银行业系统性风险的溢出,将总体溢出分解为直接溢出和间接溢出,考量房地产贷款信用风险对银行业系统性风险的传导途径。结果显示：一方面,房地产贷款信用风险近年来整体呈上升趋势,且对银行业风险溢出显著,尤其是大规模债务违约和新冠疫情的爆发加剧了溢出效应。另一方面,房地产贷款信用风险的间接溢出大于直接溢出,且高(低)系统重要性银行产生了更大的间接(直接)溢出,表明高系统重要性银行由于与其他银行的业务联系密切,其贷款信用风险更易引发银行业内的连锁反应从而间接刺激风险爆发;低系统重要性银行因为依赖少数大型客户贷款,面临信用丢失时缺乏强劲的风险缓冲能力,更可能直接对银行业的稳定造成显著破坏。     

中国绿色债券市场与金融市场间的风险溢出效应研究

本文基于向量自回归模型的预测误差方差分解方法,研究中国绿色债券市场与传统固定收益市场、股票市场以及外汇市场等多种类型的金融市场间的风险溢出效应.实证结果表明,绿色债券市场与包括国债、高收益企业债券以及公司债券市场在内的传统固定收益市场的风险溢出效应最为显著,与股市和外汇市场间的风险溢出效应微弱;绿色债券市场的对外溢出效...     

Systemic Risk,Financial Crisis,and Credit Risk Insurance

Differing from conventional insurance firms whose underwriting business does not contribute to systemic risk, credit risk insurance companies providing credit protections for debt obligations are exposed to systemic risk. We show that credit risk insurers (CRIs) underperformed conventional insurance companies during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and such underperformance is attributed to the greater systemic risk of CRIs. We also find that the credit spreads of insured bonds increase significantly after their insurers are downgraded or put in the negative watch list. We control for alternative factors affecting bond credit spreads and the result is robust.     

Competition among exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements: evidence from the American and Global Depositary Receipts

In this study, we address the ongoing debate as to whether the competition among the world's major exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements is justified. Companies from across the globe have a choice of cross-listing shares as either American or Global Depositary Receipts (ADRs and GDRs, respectively). The former are primarily listed on the US exchanges – NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX – whereas the latter are issued into non-US markets such as the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The GDRs listed on the LSE are subject to simplified disclosure requirements compared to their exchange-listed ADR peers that have to meet more stringent compliance standards. Proponents of the ‘light touch’ approach argue that firms cross-listing as GDRs are not subject to the higher reporting costs faced by ADRs yet still face similar valuation benefits. Those who challenge this approach argue that simplified disclosure requirements set by the LSE will ultimately be recognised by the market as ineffective, diverting traders from investing in GDRs. This study provides evidence that supports the LSE's ‘light touch’ approach and shows that the benefits of information risk reduction for ADRs and GDRs are comparable. The explanation for this finding is that the two avenues through which information asymmetry is expected to be resolved after cross-listing – disclosure and analysts – are substitutive and make equally important contribution to information risk reduction, eventually leading to similar cost of capital decline for ADRs and GDRs.