Vessel and voyage determinants of tanker freight rates and contract times

The behavior of shipping freight (charter) rates and the timing of shipping contracts affect the transportation costs of charterers and the operating cash flows of shipowners. Although the literature has established macroeconomic determinants of shipping freight rates, there has been no systematic investigation of microeconomic determinants of freight rates and the delivery time of chartered ships (the laycan period) in the tanker market. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the importance of vessel and contract specific factors in the determination of tanker freight rates and laycan periods in shipping contracts. Individual tanker shipping contracts from January 2006 to March 2009 are used to estimate freight rates and laycan periods using a system of simultaneous equations. The estimation results suggest that the duration of the laycan period is an important determinant of the shipping freight rate and vice versa. Other determinants of freight rates include the vessel's hull type, fixture deadweight utilization ratio, vessel age, and voyage routes. Determinants of the laycan period include the former determinants as well as the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and its volatility.     

Capacity retirement in the dry bulk market: A vessel based logit model

The paper investigates the effect of vessel specific and market variables on the probability of scrapping dry bulk ships. Using a dataset from 2012 to 2015, we find that the probability of scrapping increases with age, but that the relation between vessel size and scrapping probability varies across the different segments. In addition, while the relation between earnings and probability of scrapping ships is negative, bunker prices seem to affect only the scrapping rate of smaller tonnage. Scrapping probability also increases with an increase in interest rates, freight market volatility and scrap steel prices.     

Container yard template planning under uncertain maritime market

A yard template determines the assignment of spaces in a yard for arriving vessels. Fluctuation of demand for freight transportation brings new challenges for making a robust yard template when facing uncertain maritime market. A model is proposed for yard template planning considering random numbers of containers that will be loaded onto vessels that visit the port periodically. Traffic congestions and multiple schedule cycle times for vessel arrival patterns are also considered. Moreover, a meta-heuristic method is developed for solving the model in large-scale cases. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate effectiveness and efficiency of the model.     

Decomposing seasonality in an urban destination: the case of Milan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses demand fluctuations in the field of urban destinations, decomposing Milan’s hotel seasonality. Four different seasonal periods are identified and two research questions are explored. The first aims to verify how seasonality evolved over the period 2004–2015 and the effectiveness of analysing tourism flow in an urban destination using daily data. The second aim explores the effects generated by the Milan Expo 2015 on seasonality. Using Smith Travel Research data, a longitudinal analysis (2004–2015) is carried out, decomposing the annual Theil index. Evidence is reported and discussed.     

The multistage stochastic integer load planning problem

Time-definite freight delivery common carriers, who pickup, consolidate and deliver small shipments are a key third-party logistics service provider in the supply chains. Under uncertain demands, carrier’s multistage stochastic integer load planning in the pure hub-and-spoke line-haul operations network is to determine multistage freight paths and distribute trailers over time while meeting operational restrictions, service requirements, and balancing trailer inventory at the termination of planning horizon. We developed a heuristic approach, scenario aggregation with embedded branching on the binary variables. The numerical experiments showed a proactive operations strategy with a lower operating cost than the conventionally deterministic approach.     

A deterministic mathematical model to support temporal and spatial decisions of the soybean supply chain

A novel deterministic mathematical model is presented as part of research into a stochastic optimization model for the soybean supply chain in Brazil. The model was conceived as a tool to aid in the decision-making of any trader involved in this highly complex market. The model is intended to be applied to decisions related to tactical planning over a time span of one year. The major spatial and temporal components of the soybean complex, including transportation mode decisions, are incorporated into the model. The mathematical model is described in detail. Several stochastic parameters are used with fixed values in the deterministic model to construct various scenarios. These parameters are the purchase and sale prices of the grain on the market, the crop failure rate and the volumes of demand. The model was tested using data from a large trade in Brazil with consistent results.     

An agent based model concept for assessing modal share in inter-regional freight transport markets

This paper introduces an Agent based modelling approach to model inter-urban freight transport between two or more trading regions. The use of the model is to ascertain the modal share of competing transport modes (road and intermodal) while taking complex transport service supply–demand dynamics into account. It is structured by modules describing company generation, supplier choice, modal competition and International road freight transport market dynamics. The behaviour of individual actors is simulated using normative agent behaviour and market knowledge. Using the micro-simulation approach, shippers and carriers (primarily road hauliers and a maritime based intermodal operator) interact through simulated contracts resulting in the generation of tours. The service performance of the tours is fed back into the model for decision making during contract deliberations. Preliminary application of model to Mediterranean case study show that market share gains of around 25–30% are obtained with policy interventions of financial subsidies to intermodal services and more frequent shipping services in the intermodal transport respectively.     

Does quality pay? The case of the dry bulk market

Following important changes in the safety regulation of tankers, the dry bulk sector is coming under the spotlight in a safety and quality perspective. Nominal freight differentiation between ‘quality’ and ‘other’ tonnage has been observed occasionally and much lip service has been paid to promoting the need for younger and safer ships. Whether or not these signals actually manifest in a market initiative for the enhancement of the standards of the world bulk carrier fleet is debatable. This paper investigates the possible existence of a two-tier spot freight market for medium and large bulk carriers of differing age. Known voyage fixtures are investigated for four representative years since the end of the 1980s, during which contrasting freight market conditions prevailed. In all but very few cases, there was no statistically significant difference between rates paid to older and younger tonnage. In those few cases where such differences were statistically significant, they never exceeded 10%.     

A study on the temporal dynamics of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific Region

Using the monthly statistics of tourists from four different origins (America, Europe, Asia and Oceania) among seven places in the Asia Pacific region for a period from January 1991 to December 2005, we investigate these 28 time series using the Holt‐Winters method, artificial neural network and numerical graphical plots. Interesting comparisons on level fluctuations, trends and seasonal patterns of the time series among the Asia Pacific region are explored. These findings enable us to understand more about the temporal aspect of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific region. In sum, this paper lays out the importance of understanding the trend and seasonality indices in details. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

铁路货运组织改革相关法律问题探讨

铁路货运组织改革涉及诸多相关法律问题。从铁路货运组织改革所涉及的铁路运输企业与货主企业外部法律关系变化的角度,探讨了铁路承运人经营资格、铁路运输行为的法律规制、铁路货运合同的内涵变化以及铁路货物损害赔偿等法律问题,有助于进一步完善铁路货运法律制度。     

The influence of charterers and owners on bulk shipping freight rates

We propose a model for freight rate formation in individual contracts that incorporates charterer and owner heterogeneity and owner–charterer match effects. We estimate fixed effect regressions and implement a variance decomposition for 2863 VLCC tanker and 1789 Capesize fixtures between 2011 and 2014. Although market conditions and routes remain the most influential covariates, the characteristics of charterers, owners and of their matches are also significant microeconomic determinants of the freight rate level. The contribution of the charterer fixed effect is large in the VLCC market, while the charterer and match effects are large contributors to the Capesize spot freight rate.     

Optimisation of the exploitation period of individual vehicles in freight transportation companies

The individual vehicle replacement problem typical for freight transportation companies is discussed in the paper. Two characteristic features of such problem are that transportation companies utilise vehicles with intensity decreasing with an age of vehicles and that managers of such companies first of all take into account economical criteria when planning vehicle replacements. The paper presents a single criterion, nonlinear, deterministic and discrete mathematical model of such a problem that minimises a total exploitation and ownership costs calculated per kilometre. The exact solution procedure is proposed here. The problem is solved as a real life case study. As a result, an average, economically optimal 5-year exploitation period of vehicles has been determined.     

Transport infrastructure in the Baltic States post-EU succession

Developments in freight transport and transport infrastructure have a strong influence on economic growth. The Baltic States have recently undergone a transformation from planned economies to market orientation. The interest in the Baltic States originates from their importance as new markets within the European Union, and their transit function for trade with Russia. Rising trade volumes and increasing freight transport are forecasted in the near term for the region. This study aims at developing an understanding of the regulatory, structural and developmental conditions and trends affecting the transport infrastructure in a region in economic transition, namely the Baltic States, in the light of its current economic development. Comparisons are made with Buchhofer’s [Buchhofer, E., 1995. Transport infrastructure in the Baltic States during the transformation to market economies. Journal of Transport Geography 3(1), 69–75] assessment of transport infrastructure in the Baltic States in the early years of transformation to market economies.     

铁路集装箱运价策略研究

在市场经济环境下,运输价格是客户选择运输方式的重要因素,但目前我国铁路集装箱运输在运价方面还存在一些问题。通过分析铁路集装箱运输的特殊性,并将其运价划分为3类,提出对不同附加值的货物采用不同的运输费率、实行折扣运价和合理确定运行基价等建议,并建立了铁路集装箱最优运价模型。     

SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry

The aim of this paper is to propose a new model that improves the Damp Trend Grey Model (DTGM) with a dynamic seasonal damping factor to forecast routes passengers demand (pax) in the air transportation industry. The model is called the SARIMA Damp Trend Grey Forecasting Model (SDTGM). In the DTGM, the damp trend factor is a static smoothing factor because it does not change over time, and therefore, it cannot capture the dynamic behavior of time series data. For this reason, the modification consists in using the trend and seasonality effects of time series data to calculate a dynamic damp trend factor as time grows. The DTGM damping factor is based on the forecasted data obtained by the GM(1,1) model; otherwise, the SDTGM calculates a seasonal damping factor based on historical data using a large amount of data points for short lead-times. The SDTGM has less uncertainty than the DTGM. The simulation results show that the SDTGM captures the seasonality effect and does not allow the forecast to exponentially grow. The SDTGM forecasts more reasonable routes pax for short lead-times when having a large amount of data points than the DTGM. The United States domestic air transport market data are used to compare the performance of the DTGM against the proposed SDTGM.     

中国铁路货运市场占有率发展趋势分析

分析中国铁路货运的发展形势,建立关于铁路、公路货运量在全社会货运量中所占市场份额的差分方程组模型,运算后得出铁路货运在整个货运市场中的占有率趋向。通过利用历史统计数据计算,得到铁路货运市场占有率的一个数值解。     

The dynamics between freight volatility and fleet size growth in dry bulk shipping markets

This paper studies the relationship between the time-varying volatility of dry bulk freight rates and the change of the supply of fleet trading in dry bulk markets. An abundance of research has been done to understand the time-varying characteristics of freight rate volatility, yet few have discussed the determinants of freight volatility. We therefore examine freight volatility against the changes in fleet size and other shipping market variables over January 1973–October 2010. The study employs a two-step model specification. The first step is the measurement of freight rate volatility through an AR-GARCH model; the second step is the analysis of the relationship between freight rate volatility and fleet size growth through a GMM regression. We confirm similar findings in the literature that freight rate volatility is time varying. Furthermore, the results reveal that the change in fleet size positively affects freight rate volatility, while the spot rate volatility of Capesize dry bulk exhibits a stronger reaction to the change in fleet size. The results of this study contribute in a general sense to understanding the systematic risk of shipping markets.     

Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market

The study examines the impact of liquidity risk on freight derivatives returns. The Amihud liquidity ratio and bid–ask spreads are utilized to assess the existence of liquidity risk in the freight derivatives market. Other macroeconomic variables are used to control for market risk. Results indicate that liquidity risk is priced and both liquidity measures have a significant role in determining freight derivatives returns. Consistent with expectations, both liquidity measures are found to have positive and significant effects on the returns of freight derivatives. The results have important implications for modeling freight derivatives, and consequently, for trading and risk management purposes.     

Segmenting industrial competitive markets: An example from air freight

This paper applies a disaggregated approach to segment industrial markets under competitive structures taking the air-freight market for the high-technology product industry in Taiwan as a case study. Data from firms is used to examine the structure of the air freight industry and we find that carriers are clustered into two strategic groups, express and forwarder. Pricing is a leading strategy recognized by customers for forwarders, whereas service punctuality and freight security are the winning strategies for express. The high-tech freight market is classifiable by shipment destination and size.     

Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe

Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers.