物业税与土地出让金不可替代性

物业税是不动产税的一种类型 ,土地出让金是土地的价款 ,二者属于性质不同的经济范畴 ,不能也不应相互替代。文章针对用物业税替代地价的主张 ,分别从土地资源配置市场化之要求、与新发展观之矛盾、廉政建设、现实可行性等方面 ,分析了以税代价的不可行性和危害性。并指出解决地价过高及其引发的房地产开发成本过高和房价过高的根本出路在于加快城市建设方面税费改革的步伐     

城镇土地估价的相关技术标准分析--<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>比较

研究目的比较分析<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>在技术标准上的差异性,确定未来城镇土地估价的技术规范方向.研究方法文献资料法和比较分析法.研究结果(1)两个技术标准都强调价格的正常性,但土地估价更多从权益角度考虑,突出出让土地使用权的地位,房地产估价更多地从正常市场交易的价格前提考虑,从而导致估价基础的差异;(2)二者估价的方法相近,但术语用词、应用要求存在差别,特别是基准地价的制定和应用在土地估价中有着重要的地位;(3)对土地权益和与之相关的估价目的,土地估价重视不同用途和各种权利状况下的估价操作,房地产估价则重视具体目的估价时对合法原则的遵循.研究结论两个技术标准应逐步统一,以适应规范市场的发展需要,其关键在于明确基准地价在中国估价技术中的重要地位；规范统一专业术语；统一估价目的方法应用要求。     

城市住房价格局部线性地理加权回归分析——以湖北省黄石市为例

研究目的:以土地稀缺、资源组团型城市——湖北省黄石市为例,尝试引入局部线性地理加权回归(LLGWR)方法,探索住房价格及影响因子的空间变化规律,为政府房地产市场管理和土地利用规划提供借鉴。研究方法:整理1.93×104个住房样本和398个楼栋样本,遴选楼栋总层数、容积率、绿化率、小区等级、距区域中心距离、销售年份等作为解释变量,采用LLGWR方法构建城市住房价格的模型,并进行分析与解释。研究结果:与常规线性回归(OLS)相比,地理加权回归(GWR)和LLGWR能更合理和准确地解释住房价格的空间变异,且LLGWR优于GWR;销售年份、容积率、地理区位能显著影响住房价格,同时楼栋总层数、绿化率等因素影响住房价格,且在不同功能片区具有明显差异。研究结论:LLGWR模型可以实现系数函数和误差方差的无偏估计,提高模型的估测精度,能更为准确地解释住房价格;宏观市场趋势是影响住房价格的关键因素,但在不同的地理区位,住房价格增长趋势有明显的差异;土地利用规划和土地供应影响房地产空间分布,但研究区内土地价格对住房价格的影响不明显。     

农村集体经营性建设用地价格影响因素的实证分析*——基于江西省余江县179份交易案例

[目的]确定农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素,为科学评估农村集体经营性建设用地地价、构建城乡统一建设用地市场提供参考。[方法]利用全国农村土地使用制度改革试点之一的江西省余江县179个交易案例,运用特征价格模型分析农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素及各类因素的贡献率。[结果](1)农村集体商服用地价格的主要影响因素依次为乡镇财政收入、人均纯收入、到客运站距离、到国道的距离、教育设施;农村集体工业用地价格的主要影响因素依次为人均纯收入、人均农村居民点面积、到客运站的距离、到国道的距离。(2)社会经济因素、区位交通因素和公共设施因素对集体商服用地价格的贡献度分别为69. 0%、20. 4%和10. 6%;社会经济因素和区位交通因素对集体工业用地价格的贡献度分别为52. 8%和47. 2%。[结论]总体上与国有城镇建设用地价格存在共性规律,但存在部分因素与国有建设用地价格规律存在差异,农村集体经营性建设用地估价不宜完全套用城镇建设用地的思路。     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%,弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用,该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径;（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算,发现不同房地产市场投资热度下,住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92;（3）低 投资热度下,上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价,而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品,存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时,需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律,供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

Urban planning in office markets: A methodological approach

This article stresses the importance of urban planning interventions on real estate office markets in an environment increasingly characterized by globalization processes and progress of information and communication technologies, leaving behind the traditional influence of more market-related variables spread abroad vast literature. It contends that a better indirect control exerted by municipal authorities may launch the performance and characteristics of these markets. Within this scope, an innovative methodology and model are proposed, aimed at assisting municipal decisions in the definition of strategic policies concerning location or relocation of offices, and respective influences over rents. This methodology and this model have a flexible ongoing character that fits the anytime concrete features of local office markets. They are applied, as a case study, to the office market of Oporto city (Portugal). Implications for urban policy are inferred and generalized from this analysis.     

Impact of comprehensive development zoning on real estate development in Hong Kong

This article presents empirical tests to examine if the comprehensive development area (CDA) where the town planning is more comprehensive has relatively higher economic values than the area outside CDA. The three hypothesis are: (i) CDAs have less environmental complaints than areas outside CDA; (ii) property sales price variances in CDAs are smaller than those in areas outside CDAs; and (iii) property sales prices in CDAs are higher than those in areas outside CDAs. These findings have important implications on efforts to consider planning policy in land use decisions.     

Managing urban growth in a transforming China: Evidence from Beijing

Managing urban growth in the current rapid urbanization process has become a key issue for land use policy in transformation China. This paper maps and assesses the performance of urban containment strategies in China, looking at the case of Beijing over a 19-year period (1990–2009). The analysis shows that to a large extent containment strategies perform well in terms of concentrating urban growth in planned suburban areas and promoting compact development. However, the unexpected growth in the rural–urban fringe and the decreased compactness of the fringes of the mixed urban areas and planned peripheral constellations caused by dispersed and illegal development suggest that the municipal containment strategies are being challenged by local development activities. Most sprawling developments at the local level are favoured by the new trend towards local autonomy and fiscal responsibility in the current transformation process. The results reveal that municipal growth control might not be achieved by all local jurisdictions when local economic motivations are involved. Particularly, urban sprawl has been fuelled by the development of urban real estate which can create significant revenues for local government and private developers. In the interest of future policy development, the management capacity of current containment strategies should be enhanced to mitigate the negative effects of market-led development in the present transformation context.     

中国住房市场与土地市场协调性分析——基于协调度模型

房地产是房产与地产的综合体,住房市场与土地市场相互影响相互作用共同推进房地产市场的发展。住房与土地市场化以来,住房价格与土地价格的快速上涨使得人们普遍认为住房市场与土地市场发展不相协调,从而阻碍了房地产市场的健康发展。从采用协调度模型对全国及主要城市住房市场与土地市场的协调状况的评析来看,我国房地产市场与土地市场协调发展中尚存在着房地产市场调控不力,招拍挂制度导致地王频繁出现,地方政府对土地财政过度依赖等问题,亟待促进宏观调控政策的持续性,进一步完善土地出让制度,制定房地产税的区域推广规划。     

城中村问题产生的微观动因——基于对“土地租金剩余”的分析

研究目的：以“土地租金剩余”为切入点,从促成城中村形成的三个行为主体的角度,探究城中村问题产生的微观动因。研究方法：城市经济学与土地经济学分析方法。研究结果：城中村问题是地方政府、集体经济组织和村民三方力量共同追逐“土地租金剩余”的结果,是相关利益主体的理性选择;城中村“土地租金剩余”的产生,源于城乡二元土地制度。研究结论：城中村问题的解决,需要逐步改善城乡土地管理中的二元结构状况,实行集体土地和国有土地的“同地、同权、同价”,逐步建立城乡统一的建设用地市场,严格限定公益性用地的征收范围,强化对农民土地权利的物权保护,让农民以土地财产权利参与城市化进程。     

房价与地价的动态调整关系

研究目的:探讨地价与房价间的动态调整关系,为政府决策提供支持。研究方法:门限协整理论,EGARCH模型和实证分析法。研究结果:(1)房价和地价呈正相关;(2)地价变化是房价变化的Granger原因,地价和房价之间存在协整关系;(3)地价与房价在偏离均衡时其调整回归系数是非对称的。研究结论:购房者、开发商对利空利好消息的反应差异和中央与地方的利益博弈及各相关利益机构对房地产政策"选择性执行"是非对称性调整现象产生的原因,提出改进土地拍卖制度、平衡中央地方财力、优化政绩考核标准、强化对地方执行各项房地产政策的监管等建议。     

基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

研究目的：基于2000 — 2006年面板数据,分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法：混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果：（1）中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异,2005年及以后地价增长明显,且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大;（2）将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面,并基于引致需求理论,构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系;（3）建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变（正向关系）和房地产开发投资（负向关系）对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论：面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。     

Delineation of property rights as institutional foundations for urban land markets in transition

This paper aims to critically reflect on establishing the new frameworks for land markets and urban land development processes in countries in transition. Based on the doctrine of the so-called ‘property rights’ school, land and property ownership has long been identified as a prerequisite for economic development. The common advice to countries in transition creating new frameworks for land markets was to assign and register property rights. The aim of this paper is to discuss the significance of the delineation of property rights, which for urban land development processes and outcomes falls mainly within the remit of land use regulations. In this paper the concept of property rights regime and its characteristics is developed in order to discuss the delineation of property rights and their relationship with urban land development process and its outcome. Process of land development is conceptualized depending on land ownership (private or public), and the role of the owner in the planning process. The outcome is discussed based on the morphological results and the provision of urban infrastructure. On the basis of empirical experience from transition period in Poland it is argued that the emphasis on private property rights in the absence of the institutional foundations of urban land market under capitalism was bound to produce urban problems. First, the new institutional foundation for urban land market was introduced subsequent to dynamic of emerging real estate market, and viable markets existed despite unsolved question of restitution of property rights. Second, the subsequent delineation of property rights is clearly linked to processes of urban land development, which follow the line of development without planning. It can also be related to the morphological results of urban development like the haphazard location of investments and lack of adequate approach to deal with the provision of urban infrastructure.     

Assessing economic instruments to steer urban residential sprawl,using a hedonic pricing simulation modelling approach

Over the past centuries, cities have undergone major transformations that led to global urbanization. One of the phenomena emerging from urbanization is urban sprawl, defined as the uncontrolled spread of cities into undeveloped areas. The decrease in housing prices and commuting costs as well as the failure to internalize the real costs associated with natural land, led to households moving-out into the urban fringe – resulting in fragmented, low-density residential development patterns that has multiple negative impacts. Awareness for this problem has fed the need for the implementation of effective policies against urban residential sprawl – a subject that has received considerable attention in literature, albeit little attention has been given to economic incentive instruments. Hence, the objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of different economic instruments in steering urban residential sprawl – assessing property taxes, land taxes and public transport subsidies. To this end, the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) model is used and adapted, and a case study is provided for the medium-sized City of Aveiro in central Portugal. Results show that a flat property tax and a public transport subsidy for low and middle-income households are the most efficient instruments, leading to a decrease in urban residential area, living space and housing quantity as well as an increase in real estate values. On the other hand, a land tax results in insignificant changes in urban residential development patterns.     

Effect of the housing purchase restriction policy on the Real Estate Market: Evidence from a typical suburb of Beijing,China

To curb excessive rises in housing prices, the government has instituted a series of macro-control measures in the real estate market. The housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy, one of the most severe policies, aims to curb a rapid rise in housing prices by excluding investment demand for housing. The real estate market of Langfang City was a particularly pertinent case because it is adjacent to Beijing, the capital of China. This study collected 11,597 sets of second-hand housing transaction data from five counties around Beijing in Langfang. A regression discontinuity design was then used to indicate that the HPR policy of Langfang did not significantly reduce the price of second-hand houses in the study area. In addition, the effect of the HPR policy on housing prices had an obvious spatial heterogeneity. Within 500 m of the buffer zone around Beijing, the implementation of the HPR policy significantly increased the price by 8.07 %. Within 1000 m of the buffer zone, the implementation of the policy increased the price by an average of 6.70 %. Although the HPR policy played a role in reducing the price further than 1000 m, it was not robust. Finally, the paper highlighted that the policy makers should pay attention to the heterogeneity and connection of different cities, balance the relationship between multiple stakeholders, and improve and implement relevant systems, including a real estate tax regime and land spatial planning regime.     

Intermediate levels of property rights and the emerging housing market in Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam

Vietnam introduced a Policy of Renovation (‘Doi Moi’ Policy) to restructure the economy in 1986. Under this policy, the Land Use Right Certificate was introduced as a form of tenure for agricultural land and urban land, according to the Land Laws of 1987 and 1993, respectively. However, by 2001, most properties and/or land in Vietnam still did not have a legal title. Although Vietnam's land reforms in the 1990s provided some of the weakest private rights among the transition countries, big cities like Ho Chi Minh City are presently homes to thriving housing markets. Transactions of ‘property without a physical entity and legal title’ in the real estate market show how property ownership can be formed in order to operate within different institutional contexts. This paper highlights that ‘intermediate levels of property rights’ are the driving forces behind the thriving housing market in Ho Chi Minh City.     

浅谈我国土地储备制度对房地产的影响

土地储备制度是近几年来城市土地制度改革的一项重大措施,也是房地产领域改革的一个热点。它是我国经济体制改革、土地使用制度改革和土地管理改革深化的必然结果。作为一套行之有效的对城市存量土地高度集中管理的机制,其目标是盘活城市存量土地,加强政府对盘活存量土地的统筹安排。     

Prices,policies, and place: What drives greenfield development?

While the recent global financial crisis heightened awareness of the linkages between global financial capital and urban spatial pattern, the timing of urban development – largely thought to be market driven – is not fully understood. Parcel-level studies of urban land-use change, which often use hazard models to investigate if and when development occurs, offer an opportunity to juxtapose the extent to which decisions to develop individual plots of farmland into housing are driven by market forces, the unique characteristics of the land and its intraurban location, or policies such as transportation infrastructure and municipal annexation. Using residential completion data in the Phoenix, Arizona region from 1992 to 2014, a period of dramatic commodity, fuel, and home price swings, and land cover imagery, we develop a parcel-level hazard model to gauge the relative impacts of market, policy, and place-based drivers of land change. We find limited evidence of induced development associated with freeway planning, that annexation and development are closely linked and moreso during economic booms, high fuel prices spur development in the region's core, and agricultural and urban land rents affect the timing of development. This study advances our understanding of development decision- making, policy impacts, and urban land-use change modeling and provides an empirical connection between local and global drivers of Greenfield development.     

Two centuries of farmland prices in England

The dissemination of robust asset price data can help improve market efficiency, resource allocation and investment analysis. Land prices influence housing affordability, food security and the carbon infrastructure. Yet price and return histories for farmland in England are fragmented. To provide perspective, a long farmland price series is needed to improve transparency and bring the asset class into line with commercial and residential real estate. After reviewing the historical backdrop and considering methodology, this research uses a chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland price series for England. It then adjusts the series for inflation to examine real land prices. The resulting two-century English farmland prices series contributes to farmland market analysis. Notwithstanding some concerns with long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series helps us to understand English average farmland price dynamics. As measured by the geometric mean, English land price real capital returns have been positive over more than two centuries. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013. The series contributes to an understanding of land price dynamics.     

Forecasting real estate prices in Germany: the role of consumer confidence

The aim of the paper is to analyse the forecasting ability of various potential predictors for real estate prices in Germany over the short term. In the wake of the financial crisis, real estate prices in Germany started to increase markedly and still did so by the end of 2013. Despite a number of fundamental reasons, e.g. favourable lending conditions and Germany’s rapid return to economic growth, this provoked a discussion on whether consumers have too gloomy expectations regarding real estate prices in future. To capture the role of expectations for predicting real estate prices, in our forecast evaluation, we put special emphasis on various components of consumer confidence. Using single indicator models, we find that households’ perceived financial situations as well as their intended consumption/saving plans serve as valuable real estate price predictors.