中国居民消费与资产收益:基于收入群体的分析

The equity premium puzzle is found during the test of the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) with aggregate consumption data. Because of income disparity, many consumers lack financial assets to intertemporally allocate their consumptions under income constraints. Thus, it is likely to lead to a specification error by employing aggregate consumption data to test the CCAPM. This paper examines the impacts of the economically constrained (low-income) consumers and unconstrained (high-income) consumers on the CCAPM using urban consumption expenditures in China delineated by consumer income, and tests the income constraint hypothesis. The empirical results show that the CCAPM is not more consistent with the consumption pattern of the higher-income consumers. Including the income constraint into the analyses of the consumption and asset returns does not unravel the equity premium puzzle.      

IRELAND's INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

There are concerns that the unprecedented economic boom which Ireland experienced in the second half of the 1990s has raised only some living standards and has widened income gaps. This paper analyzes Ireland's income distribution in comparative perspective, to understand how Ireland's distribution changed and how it compares to other rich countries. We begin with OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data to compare Ireland's degree of well-being and inequality with other advanced countries. We also look in some detail at alternative sources of Irish income and their implications for the trends in income inequality in Ireland from 1994 to 2000. For instance, we examine the top of the distribution using data from the administration of the income tax system. We conclude that the spectacular economic growth in the past decade has seen the gap in average income between Ireland and the richer OECD countries narrow dramatically. However, this growth has not greatly affected the Irish ranking in terms of income inequality. Ireland remains an outlier among rich European nations in its high degree of income inequality, though still falling well short of the level seen in the United States. In the end, we find that Ireland's new-found prosperity provides a "social dividend," and choices about how it is used will fundamentally affect whether the current high level of income inequality persists into the future.     

Exploring the effects of aggregation error in the estimation of consumer demand elasticities

Errors introduced by using aggregate data in estimating a consumer demand model have long been a concern. We study the effects of such errors on elasticity estimates derived from AIDS and QUAIDS models. Based on a survey of published articles, a generic parameterization of the income distribution, and the range of Gini coefficients reported for 28 OECD countries, we generate and analyze a large number of “observations” on the differences between elasticities calculated at the aggregate level and those calculated at the micro level. We suggest a procedure for evaluating the likely range of aggregation error when a model is estimated with aggregate data.     

Does greater income inequality cause increased work hours? New evidence from high income economies

We explore the extent to which individual's allocation of time between labour and leisure is affected by the consumption standards of the rich. Utilizing a panel data methodology and panel Granger causality tests we investigate the relationship between income inequality and work hours for a cluster of 24 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990–2015. Four alternative measures of income inequality are considered. We find that greater income inequality is associated with longer work hours indicating stronger concern for conspicuous consumption rather than conspicuous leisure. Even though the resulting estimates lend support to the theoretical framework on consumption emulation, the generated evidence also appears to be in line with a Duesenberry's and Frank's expenditure cascading approach. The ambiguity however arising from the Granger Causality tests appears to lead – to a certain extent – to different conclusions about the direction of causality or whether a causal relationship does even exist. It is therefore imperative that caution should be exercised when interpreting the direction of the causal dimension.     

Technology spillover effects and economic integration: evidence from integrating EU countries

The article uses time series for the period 1981–2008 to estimate the impact of foreign technology spillover effects on Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, representing the integrating European Union (EU) countries. I restrict technology diffusion to EU-12 countries and compare the results to unrestricted technology diffusion from a sample of 32 OECD countries. Accounting for nonstationarity and co-integration, the dynamic OLS estimator is used to estimate the impact of foreign R&D stock on labour productivity, taking into account patent-, trade- and FDI-related technology diffusion channels. I find empirical evidence for trade-related foreign technology spillover effects for Greece and Ireland if technology diffusion is unrestricted. Restricting technology diffusion to EU-12 countries, there are significant foreign technology spillover effects from European integration for Portugal (patent related) and Spain (trade and FDI related). Moreover, the domestic R&D stock and education are significant drivers for labour productivity in integrating EU countries. The empirical results are robust for different regression specifications and sources of technology diffusion.     

Public goods, merit goods, and the relation between private and government consumption

In this paper, we investigate the relation between public and private consumption, by constructing a general government spending data set, by function, for 12 European countries. In particular, we split government consumption into two categories. The first category—“public goods”—includes defence, public order, and justice. The second category—“merit goods”—includes health, education, and other services that could have been provided privately. Equations from a relatively general permanent income model are estimated by GMM. The estimates are fairly robust in showing that public goods substitute while merit goods complement private consumption. However, the relation between merit goods and private goods turns out to be stronger than that between public goods and private goods. Thus, in the aggregate government and private consumption are complements.     

Investment rates and the aggregate production function

In this paper we consider a simple version of the neoclassical growth model, and carry out an empirical analysis of the main determinants of aggregate investment across countries. The neoclassical growth model predicts that aggregate investment may be influenced by income growth, the capital income share, the relative price of capital, taxes, and other market distortions. We check these investment patterns for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We also decompose investment data into equipment and structures, and explore major factors affecting their relative prices. These empirical exercises shed light into the shape of the neoclassical production function.     

A cross-country analysis of consumption patterns

This paper uses the system-wide approach to analyse the consumption patterns in 18 OECD countries. The results show that, on average, the OECD per capita consumption increased by 3% per annum and prices increased by about 7% per annum; OECD consumers spend about half of their income on food, housing and transport. It is also shown that, in most OECD countries, food, housing and medical care are necessities and clothing, durables, transport and recreation are luxuries, and that the demand for all goods considered are price inelastic. The controversial hypothesis of Stigler and Becker (1977) that tastes are the same across countries is also tested and it is found that the OECD consumption data do not support their claim.     

The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in “real” inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor.     

Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade, 1979-1992

This study examines how exchange-rate volatility affected Ireland's exports to its most important trading partner, the United Kingdom, from 1979 to 1992. To ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, the time series properties of the series used are investigated. The analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2-digit SITC Division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently. Since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first-order GARCH process. Both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35% of Irish-UK trade, with positive effects predominating. This may be due to the nature of Irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to 'weather the storm' for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit, re-entry, or both.     

The MFN clause,welfare, and multilateral cooperation between countries of unequal size

This paper analyzes MFN in a “competing exporters” model of trade between three countries with unequal endowments and shows that MFN yields higher aggregate welfare than tariff discrimination even as it makes low income countries worse off. Furthermore, in a repeated game of tariff cooperation, multilateral free trade is easier to sustain under MFN punishments relative to discriminatory ones. This conclusion holds even when tariff discrimination takes the form of bilateral trade agreements. Overall, the analysis shows that from the viewpoint of low income countries, MFN and multilateral tariff cooperation are complementary in nature.     

Risk sharing through capital gains

Abstract We estimate channels of international risk sharing between European Monetary Union (EMU), European Union, and other OECD countries, 1992–2007. We focus on risk sharing through savings, factor income flows, and capital gains. Risk sharing through factor income and capital gains was close to zero before 1999 but has increased since then. Risk sharing from capital gains, at about 6%, is higher than risk sharing from factor income flows for European Union countries and OECD countries. Risk sharing from factor income flows is higher for euro zone countries, at 14%, reflecting increased international asset and liability holdings in the euro area.     

R&D,innovation and output: evidence from OECD and nonOECD countries

This article uses data from 41 OECD and nonOECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries to examine the predictions of nonscale endogenous growth theories that an increase in the share of researchers in labour force leads to an increase in innovation and innovation raises per capita output. The results show that an increase in the share of researchers in labour force increases innovation only in the large market OECD countries. Moreover, an increase in innovation raises per labour GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in all nonOECD countries except for low income countries, while raising it only in the high-income OECD countries. These findings suggest that though the large market OECD countries are the world leader in innovation, nonOECD countries benefit more from it in promoting their growth.     

Energy consumption,economic growth and environmental degradation in OECD countries

The interdependence among energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation has become an important public policy priority among OECD countries. Yet, the related literature provides conflicting results when describing the dynamic nature of such a relationship and the way it affects countries' development path. Using a sample of 35 OECD countries over the period 2000–2014, we find that economic growth and energy consumption patterns contribute to the enhancement of countries' environmental performance levels. In contrast to a large stream of empirical research, our findings highlight that countries' economic development path and their energy consumption patterns have started to align with their environmental policies. The results are robust since we utilize different aspects of countries' environmental degradation such as carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprints and countries' environmental performance levels. Finally, the analysis of the dynamic interrelations among countries' energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation levels, reveals the necessity to promote sustainable development through a coexistence rather than through a trade-off mechanism.     

DOES SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL RESEARCH REDUCE MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY?

This paper explores whether conducting scientific and technical (S&T) research reduces the volatility of output growth. The paper finds robust evidence that output volatility is significantly lowered by a country's production of S&T publications. The results show that the effect of S&T publications on output volatility is particularly strong in middle‐income, OECD and other high‐income countries. However, for East‐Asian, low‐income and sub‐Saharan African countries the effect is either weak or absent. These results provide strong evidence that not only OECD and other high‐income countries are actively engaged in S&T research, emerging developing countries are also conducting S&T research, which is effective in reducing output volatility. The results are robust to adding a host of control variables, various subsamples and different estimation techniques.     

Energy efficiency in transition economies

This article outlines and estimates a measure of underlying efficiency in electricity consumption for an unbalanced panel of 27 transition economies and 6 European OECD countries between 1994 and 2007. A Bayesian Generalized True Random Effects stochastic frontier model with persistent and transient inefficiency is considered by estimating an aggregate electricity demand function that leads to consumption efficiency scores, giving further insights than a simple analysis of energy intensity. There is evidence of convergence between the CIS countries and a block of Eastern European and OECD countries, although other country groups do not follow this tendency, such as the Balkans.     

International income inequality, 2005–2011: what a difference 6 years can make

While much attention has recently been given to the rising inequality in high-income countries, particularly the US, inequality across countries has received less attention. Based on reports of the International Comparison Program, which provide the most accurate measures of PPP income at the country level, this study computes three highly recommended measures of intercountry income inequality for the years 2005 and 2011. A dramatic, and perhaps unprecedented, fall in intercountry inequality over the relatively short period of 6 years is noted. As a correlate of the fall in intercountry inequality, aggregate PPP GDP for six major high-income countries is compared with that for three large developing countries, and the dramatic increase over the 6-year period in the ratio of the total GDP of the three developing countries to that for the six high-income countries is noted, thus extending, from the most accurate data, the theme of the ‘rise of the South’ articulated in Human Development Report 2013.     

Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy

This paper studies empirically the role of trade globalization in shifting the electoral base towards populism. We proxy the trade shock with swiftly rising import competition from China and compare voting patterns at the national parliamentary elections from 1992 to 2013 in about 8000 Italian municipalities differently exposed to the trade shock. We instrument import competition from China with Chinese export flows to other high-income countries and estimate the model in first differences. Our results indicate that trade globalization increases support for populist parties, as well as invalid votes and abstentionism. To rationalize these findings, we offer evidence that import competition worsens local labor market conditions – higher unemployment, lower income and durable consumption – and increases inequality. Finally, we point out that local public expenditure may play a role in mitigating the political consequences of the trade shock, arguably because it alleviates economic distress.     

Measuring fossil resource inequality—A case study for the UK between 1968 and 2000

This paper quantifies fossil resource inequalities amongst income quintiles in the UK between 1968 and 2000. It calculates a resource-based Gini coefficient using an input-output based resource allocation model.The results show that the Gini coefficient for total fossil resource consumption grew by 24% over the time period. By comparison the Gini coefficient for overall household expenditure rose by only 13%. The increase in resource inequality was prompted by the rising demand by high income quintiles for goods and services such as: “fuel and light” (heating and lighting the home), “car use” (private transportation), “recreation”, “travel” and “other services”. The analysis shows further that the Gini coefficient for “direct” fossil resources (“fuel and light” and “car use”) was lower and rose less steeply than the Gini coefficient for fossil resources embodied in other goods and services (indirect fossil resource requirements).Investigation into the drivers behind direct and indirect resource inequalities suggests a number of policy conclusions. Firstly, it is clear that policy initiatives to reduce fossil resource requirements (and the associated climate change impacts) must pay careful attention to distributional differences. Additionally, increased attention needs to be paid to the inequalities associated with indirect fossil resources consumption as well as the more visible direct resource inequalities.     

Unit root and cointegration tests: timeseries versus panel estimates for international health expenditure models

Classical regression estimates of the determinants of the OECD health expenditures are useful for policy formulation and evaluation. However, if the underlying timeseries data are not collectively stationary in levels, the estimated parameters are faulty and can misguide health policy. Until very recently, the crucial stationarity tests were ignored in a large number of studies on international comparisons. Stationarity (ADF, Phillips-Perron, IPS heterogeneous panel) and cointegration (Engle-Granger bivariate, Johansen's multivariate) tests are conducted here using 1960–1997 health expenditures data (1998 CD ROM) of 19 OECD countries. It is found that extending the time series data length affects the order of integration and number of cointegrating vectors. However, it is arguable whether the order of integration decreases or increases as more observations are added for testing. The failure of the Johansen and Engle-Granger cointegration tests for most of the OECD countries cautions policy makers against reliance on earlier research findings that were based on unstable relationships among variables in the regression models. (This is not the case for the UK, Greece and Ireland; policy implications have been derived for the UK.) Consequently, data calibrated in growth rates may be more appropriate for investigating the long run relationships collectively in a panel of OECD health expenditure model specifications.