Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-level integrated assessment

This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.     

Customary land allocation,urbanization and land use planning in Ghana: Implications for food systems in the Wa Municipality

Food insecurity remains persistent in the Global South due to constraints in food production capacities and intricate land tenure systems that stifle investment in agriculture. In the urbanized regions, uncontrolled urbanization and non-compliant land use systems have further worsened the potentials for urban food production. This research is based on a case study of the Wa Municipality in order to assess the influences of customary land allocation and peri-urbanization on land use planning and foods systems in Ghana using explorative and narrative research approaches. The study identified that customary stakeholders responsible for allocating such lands in the Wa Municipality were indiscriminately converting large tracts of hitherto agricultural lands to urban land uses. Statutorily prepared land use plans are hardly enforced and the planning priorities are on residential and commercial land uses that command higher land values to the detriment of agricultural lands. Weak institutional linkages also characterize the mandated planning and land administration institutions, with a planning system that is reactive rather than proactive in addressing development control challenges across the country. There is the need for planning authorities to adopt participatory land uses planning together with customary landholders and educating them on the essence of comprehensive land use planning approaches. Based on the findings, local governments need to partner landowners to identify and reserve high potential agricultural land for sustainable urban food production.     

Land use consolidation in Rwanda: The experiences of small-scale farmers in Musanze District,Northern Province

The modernization and intensification of agricultural production in Africa has long been a policy goal, for increased productivity and food security. In 2008, the Rwandan government implemented various land and agricultural reforms to transform Rwandan agriculture from subsistence farming to market-oriented production. Central to this agricultural transformation was the Crop Intensification Programme, intended to increase the agricultural productivity of high-potential food crops and encourage land use consolidation, i.e., the joint cultivation of large areas, which was expected to deliver important economies of scale. This programme has been criticized, for example, for authoritarian implementation, negative effects on food security from sole-cropping a few selected crops, and increasing rural socioeconomic differentiation.This paper analyses the effects of the land use consolidation programme at the household level, as experienced by small-scale farmers in Musanze District in the Northern Province of Rwanda. The paper draws on 45 individual and 22 collective qualitative semi-structured interviews with small-scale farmers and local key informants in five sectors, conducted in 2013 and 2014.The findings show that there is satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and resistance to the programme, especially regarding the selected crops to be cultivated. The programme, including supporting mechanisms, seems to work well for the relatively better-off farmers, who have bigger and scattered land areas, whereas it does not work well for poor farmers with very small plots, which is common in rural Rwanda.     

贸易自由化对中国食物消费不平等的影响与路径研究——基于多元多重中介效应模型的检验

随着经济发展,人们生活水平不断提高,中国人均食物消费量不断提高,但食物消费不平等问题依然比较突出.本文基于贸易自由化的角度,引入价格和收入两个中介变量,利用中国家庭收入项目调查数据及其他相关数据,通过多元多重中介效应模型,从理论和实证上分析了贸易自由化对中国食物消费不平等的影响.研究发现,贸易自由化不仅可通过提高中国居...     

Soil is brown gold in the Emilia-Romagna region,Italy

Soil is a natural resource essential to human welfare by virtue of its numerous crucial functions. In the past, soil has been taken for granted because of its widespread, albeit finite, availability. However, now that world's population is projected to exceed ten billion before the end of this century, soil is increasingly perceived as a precious commodity. Consequently, soil is increasingly under pressure by rich private investors and governments within the poorest countries to satisfy appetites for food production and biofuel. A case study is used to explore the plausibility of soil being considered as ‘brown gold’. Based on the comparison of land use maps, we estimated the value in terms of resource from raw material, carbon sink and virtual calories of the productive soil lost during the period 2003–2008 in the Emilia-Romagna Plain, one of the most productive areas of Italy. More than fifteen thousand hectares of cropland underwent land use change – in particular urbanization – over the 6-year period with an implied loss of crop production potential equivalent to the daily calorific requirement of more than 440,000 people. Taking into account that Italy is no longer self-sufficient in food production, such a loss appears to be strategically significant. Perhaps more importantly, urbanization and soil sealing has had negative ramifications on environmental sustainability, on both local and broad scales, with increased consumption of public funds. A logical framework of the socio-economic impact of land use change has been compiled and is presented as a possible example of a policy relevant approach to managing productive soils as a finite resource.     

Neighborhood socioeconomics,food environment and land use determinants of public health: Isolating the relative importance for essential policy insights

Recent literature has advocated the connection between land use policies with public health promotion. In this regard, examining the land use determinants of public health and isolating the relative importance with other influential factors should provide essential policy insights. However, very limited efforts have been made in this aspect, particularly for the developing countries. Using a case of Wuhan (China), this paper attempts to capture the land use determinants of obesity prevalence among middle-aged adults and to compare the relative importance with neighborhood socioeconomics and food environment. A conceptual framework is first proposed to guide the analysis within a land use policy context. Data are then collected during the China’s National Physical Fitness Survey in 2010 and multivariate linear regression is applied to analyze the district level determinants. Results show that neighborhood socioeconomics, food environment and land use all have significant effects on obesity prevalence among the middle-aged adults. The men obesity is associated with the occupation, education and housing, while women obesity is correlated with income and housing. Women obesity associates with healthy food environment, while men obesity correlates with unhealthy food environment. Open public space is negative to women obesity, and institutional land is negative to men obesity. Greater walkability and street connectivity associate with lower obesity risk for both genders. The variance decomposition demonstrates that food environment is the most important determinant of men obesity, while land use is the most essential determinant of women obesity. For the obesity prevalence among total population, neighborhood socioeconomics are key determinants. Based on our analysis, we finally provide some insights for land use policies that aim at addressing the obesity issue in developing countries.     

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.     

Evaluation and simulation of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services trade-offs in ecological restoration areas,China

To restore China’s degraded environment and improve ecological balance, the government launched a land use policy known as the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), which is the largest ecological construction project in China or anywhere else. It has greatly increased the vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau but occupied the space of agricultural development (AD) over the years. Research on the impact of policy implementation on ecosystem services (ESs) and their trade-offs can support scenario analyses that provide realistic guidance for decision makers to formulate future regional ecological restoration planning. Our focus is Ningwu County and Jingle County on the Loess Plateau, a typical ecologically fragile and impoverished area where expansion of vegetation cover has driven extensive loss of farmland and its benefits to farmers.In this study, soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and food supply (FS) were selected to assess the change of ESs and their trade-offs in different scenarios that represent ecological restoration and land reclamation policies. The results revealed that overall ESs had the largest increase but there were more trade-offs among ESs under the GFGP scenario. For a single ESs, SC and HQ were increased while FS and WY were decreased under the GFGP scenario. From the view of trade-offs, the GFGP scenario exhibited more trade-offs than the AD scenario. Furthermore, compared to the GFGP scenario, the numbers of sub-watersheds with trade-offs of ESs decreased under the AD scenario. With more concern about the contradiction between implementing GFGP and protecting farmland, we confirm that it is extremely unwise to incessantly implement GFGP to improve overall ESs without considering the trade-offs among ESs. Given the certain sub-watersheds mainly developing agriculture, the AD scenario appears to best reduce trade-offs among ESs and ensure the improvement of ESs. Therefore, it is of great significance to realize the win-win situation of regional ecological and resource demand to find the most suitable development direction in the future.     

The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment

We analyze the long‐term impacts of large‐scale expansion of biofuels on land‐use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi‐country, multi‐sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land‐use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re‐allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.     

Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short‐term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption

A complete demand system for Vietnam was estimated using household survey data. Results showed that demand for rice with respect to prices and expenditure is relatively inelastic compared to other foods. Demand for food in general tends to be less elastic at higher levels of income and for urban households. In the short term, a market shock such as a 10% decrease in income or a 30% increase in rice prices forces households to spend a larger portion of their expenditure on rice at the expense of other foods. Low‐income households face a higher risk of undernourishment as their daily calorie intake is more negatively affected by the shocks than high‐income households. The results suggest the importance of policies that provide necessary safety net programs for the poor.     

Food,farmers, and the future: Investigating prospects of increased food production within a national context

With international food price shocks in 2008 and 2011, food security became a political priority in many countries. In addition, some politicians have recently adopted a more nationalistic stance. Against that background, this paper critically investigates the prospects of increased food production within a national context. We use a small, high-income country, Norway, as an empirical case. In 2012, the government set a goal of increasing agricultural food production by 20% by 2030. We ask: 1) How has food production in Norway developed before and after the goal was set? 2) What plans do farmers have, and what do they regard as the main obstacles to increased production? We apply a mixed method combining public statistics, a survey, and interviews. We analyze four production systems: a) milk; b) grass-based meat; c) combined pig and grain; and d) grain. These systems represent around 80% of the domestically consumed food produced on farms in Norway. Since 2000, aggregate food production has had a slight downward trend with periodic fluctuations. Based on a political economy approach, we identify land and labor as the most limiting factors. Capital is less of a hindrance and offers a potential for increased production. Farmers have modest expectations of increased production, though. This outlook resonates with the strong integration of agriculture into the wider economy, at both micro and macro levels, making it challenging to implement new policies and change farm practices on a broad basis. Increases in some specific products, however, are realistic.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

The Heterogeneous Effects of Standards on Agricultural Trade Flows

This article uses a theory‐based translog gravity model to investigate the heterogeneous effects of food standards on aggregate agricultural trade. We revisit the ‘standards‐as‐barriers‐to‐trade’ debate with a distinctive twist. In contrast to existing works, we show that standards reduce trade but even more so for countries that trade smaller volumes. Our identification strategy exploits the within‐country variation in specific trade concerns. We confirm that stricter importer standards are indeed trade‐restrictive. However, the estimated trade cost elasticity varies depending on how intensively two countries trade. Specifically, it decreases in magnitude with an increasing import share of the exporter in the importing country's total imports. The reason is simple but intuitive; bigger trading partners find it more profitable to invest in meeting the costs of importer‐specific standards. This work is novel in showing that the standards–trade debate misses out on an important heterogeneity driven by existing import shares. Liberalising non‐tariff measures will favour smaller trading partners more than well‐established ones.     

Assessment of relation of land use characteristics with vector-borne diseases in tropical areas

Land use and land cover changes play an important role in the occurrence of vector-borne diseases. It is highly essential to identify the prominent changes responsible for its occurrence so that suitable measures can be adopted. An attempt was made to identify the prominent land use and land cover changes responsible for the spread of chikungunya, malaria, and dengue fever in the State of Kerala, India, using hierarchical cluster analysis and multiple regression analysis. Large extent of water bodies, low land and agricultural land played a significant role on the incidence of chikungunya and malaria. High population density, built-up area and agricultural area favoured dengue fever. Vector-borne diseases were found to be the lowest in places where there is no low land and with higher forest area. Inappropriate disposal of wastes generated in the built-up area might be the reason for the spread of dengue fever. Freshwater in drains of these areas is polluted and form breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Hence much attention is to be paid to provide appropriate treatment and disposal of wastes generated in the built-up area of the State In an evolving urban policy, priority is to be given to the installation of safe treatment and disposal facility of wastes especially, sewage, sullage, and solid waste. The protection of forest land also plays an important role. Economic policy instruments such as Payment for Environment Services (PES) schemes, may constitute a useful tool to encourage an improved land use management through appropriate price signals, such as, for instance, for the preservation of forested areas especially in proximity of highly populated urban environments.     

Tidal river management for sustainable agriculture in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta: Implication for land use policy

The tidal river management (TRM) approach is an indigenous management practice in the Southwest part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. This approach has a high potential for extending area under agriculture with a positive impact on sustainable production and consequently on sustainable land use planning. Until recently, no studies provide a quantitative assessment on agricultural benefits of TRM operation. In this study, we aim to assess the benefits of TRM operation by using innovative approaches such as comparing land use change, agricultural production and economic cost-benefit analysis for two scenarios (with and without TRM) in the Hari-Teka-Bhadra catchment. We found that the financial benefit of TRM operation was 85.5 million US dollar per year from the agriculture sector. The results are useful for promoting land use policy through TRM approach in achieving greater sustainability in the area.     

基于聚类分析的喀斯特山区石漠化土地利用

以毕节老街村喀斯特石漠化土地利用为个案,利用研究区土地类型单元图,采用实地访查获取研究数据。分析表明:研究区石漠化土地利用现状,已显著地凸现其利用的经济不合理性,总体而言,土地利用经济效益随石漠化程度加重而衰减;选择土地自然属性和经济属性指标为分析变量,以SPSS12.0的聚类结果为基础,利用土地景观生态的基本原理优化土地利用结构,推动喀斯特山区生态农业发展。     

Impacts of land use and amenities on public transport use,urban planning and design

Various land-use configurations are known to have wide-ranging effects on the dynamics of and within other city components including the transportation system. In this work, we particularly focus on the complex relationship between land-use and transport offering an innovative approach to the problem by using land-use features at two differing levels of granularity (the more general land-use sector types and the more granular amenity structures) to evaluate their impact on public transit ridership in both time and space. To quantify the interdependencies, we explored three machine learning models and demonstrate that the decision tree model performs best in terms of overall performance—good predictive accuracy, generality, computational efficiency, and “interpretability”. Results also reveal that amenity-related features are better predictors than the more general ones, which suggests that high-resolution geo-information can provide more insights into the dependence of transit ridership on land-use. We then demonstrate how the developed framework can be applied to urban planning for transit-oriented development by exploring practicable scenarios based on Singapore's urban plan toward 2030, which includes the development of “regional centers” (RCs) across the city-state. Results show an initial increase in transit ridership as the amount of amenities is increased. This trend, on the other hand, eventually reverses (particularly during peak hours) with continued strategic increase in amenities; a tipping point at 55% increase is identified where ridership begins to decline and at 110%, the predicted ridership begins to fall below current levels. Our in-silico experiments support one of the medium-term land-use transport goals of stakeholders—to alleviate future strains in the transportation system of Singapore through the development of RCs. The model put forward can serve as a good foundation in building decision-support tools that can assist planners in better strategizing and planning land-use configurations, in particular the amenity resource distribution, to influence and shape public transportation demand.     

Mechanism of regional land use transition in underdeveloped areas of China: A case study of northeast China

By using Northeast China as example, this study measured the characteristics of the land use transition of underdeveloped areas (UAs) of China and explored the underlying transition mechanism. This study found that, the main characteristics of the land use transition of Northeast China during the last two decades (1995–2015) were continuous expansion of cropland, accelerated growth of construction land, and continuous reduction of woodland and grassland, as well as unused land. Policies dominate the process of land use transition of the UAs of China. The land use transition of UAs of China is a result of interaction and coupling between socio-ecological feedback under the guidance of policies and socio-economic change under the influence of policies. The former determines the direction of regional land use transition while the latter determines the intensity of this transition. During the process of land use transition, the sustainable use of land of the UAs of China faces several severe issues: inefficient use of urban construction land caused by unreasonable policy support, degradation of the ecological environment caused by irrational expansion of cropland, and both policy instability and policy conflicts. To resolve these issues, punishment and accountability of local governmental violations of land use should be strengthened. Furthermore, a land use information disclosure system and public supervision mechanism should be established by policy makers. The starting point of policy formulation should be shifted from quantity growth to quality improvement as well as from economic benefits to comprehensive benefits.