Effects of FTA Provisions on the Market Structure of the Korean Automobile Industry

The Korean passenger car market is dominated by a few domestic producers. In this paper, we investigate whether this market structure is the result of import tariffs and taxes that penalize foreign manufacturers. Our counterfactual simulation under two FTA scenarios shows that the market shares of imported and domestic cars show minimal adjustments, suggesting that import tariffs and taxes may not explain the lack of penetration of import cars in Korea. We predict changes in consumer surplus and discuss the policy implications of our findings.     

2011年俄罗斯油气出口统计分析——兼谈新出口税制对俄油气出口的影响

在2011年俄罗斯油气出口产品中,除管道天然气和汽油出口量较上年分别增长5.89％和3.45％外,其他油气产品出口量均有所下降,但由于油气价格大幅攀升,俄罗斯2011年的油气出口收入大幅增加32.8％,占俄对外贸易出口总额的63％.原油和成品油出口量的变化与2011年10月1日后俄在石油行业实施的新税制有关.2011年10月1日,俄罗斯开始实施“60-66-90”税制.从当年油气出口数据看,新税制能否促进俄原油出口有待进一步检验;新税制降低了俄汽油出口,但对柴油出口的影响不明显.新税制调整带来的影响应当是长期的,原油出口税的降低,有助于调整俄国内投资方向,加大开采力度;成品油出口关税的提高,有助于增加俄国内市场的供给.在天然气出口方面,俄罗斯向欧洲出口面临降价压力,而开拓亚太LNG市场也面临激烈竞争.     

China''''s Cooperative Exploration of Oil and Gas and Its Taxation System

China' s foreign-oriented oil taxation system has, from the beginning, been based upon the positive experiences of other oil-producing countries and has incorporated common international practices. The system has been perfected over decades. It of fers more incentives than other oil-producing countries in the following four aspects: (1) Income tax has a "wide tax base and low tax rate"; (2) VAT levies a low tax rate on ma-     

市场获得、边界效应与经济集聚——基于“中心—外围”城市经济活动的考察

本研究利用我国54个城市1990—2010年的经济活动数据重点考察了市场获得对区域经济集聚发展的影响。结论发现随着市场获得的边界效应下降,要素(中间)品和最终消费品两个市场获得均具有促进区域集聚发展的作用,国内市场获得对中心城市集聚发展的贡献力在样本期具有下降趋势,而外围城市则反之。与其呼应的则是当前刘易斯拐点期和国际经济衰弱(波动)期外需市场获得空间增长乏力,这意味着工业生产性资源在空间上集聚配置的"地理界线"必然会由沿海边界线向内陆圈后移,"主外需,轻内需"局面向"内外需并重"转变将成为趋势。未来外向型的东部沿海(中心地区)集聚力相对下降,而内陆外围地区可吸收其扩散力;随着国内市场获得重要性的提升,内陆(或外围)地区将充分接受沿海地区"回波效应"带来的新增长力量,我国区域"中心—外围"发展格局有望走向渐进均衡化。     

垂直市场结构、价格稳定性与国内石油税制选择

运用垂直市场结构方法研究不完全竞争的石油市场中不同税制对国内石油价格稳定性的差异化影响及其税制选择。研究发现,在不同的垂直市场结构组合下,从价税制和从量税制对国际石油市场冲击的价格传递弹性明显不同;税制选择主要依赖于各国石油业的竞争性及其石油需求弹性;在大多数情形下从价税制都是更优的税制选择。对中国的启示是,如需要考虑国内石油价格的稳定性,在中国很强的石油业垄断格局及特定的石油需求弹性情形下,从价税制可能是较好的税制选择。     

我国润滑油市场2011年回顾及2012年展望

2011年,在汽车工业发展“刹车”以及制造业增速减慢的影响下,我国润滑油市场呈现增速回落态势,表观消费量为675万吨,同比增长3.3％,低于近十年来5.6％的平均增速.润滑油消费结构继续向车用集中.润滑油市场竞争持续加剧,对进口基础油的依赖度开始下降.2011年可能是我国润滑油市场快速增长20年以来的一个转折期的开始.预计2012年我国经济保持稳定增长,润滑油消费量约700万吨;进口基础油数量将出现自2005年以来的首次回落.     

2008年中国沥青市场回顾与2009年展望

2008年,中国沥青总产量约为848万吨,同比减少88万吨,降幅为9.4%;净进口量为320万吨,同比降低10%;表观消费量为1168万吨,同比减少124万吨,降幅为9.6%.2008年国内沥青价格和进口沥青价格随着国际原油价格大起大落,下半年价格急剧下滑.2009年,在国家为拉动内需大力支持交通基础设施建设的利好政策推动下,我国的公路建设将迎来新一轮的发展高潮,预计2009年国内沥青市场需求量同比将有较大幅度的增长,需求总量约为1428万～1596万吨.沥青的销售价格在经过第一季度的低位盘整期后,有望在二、三季度回升到一定高度,四季度可能有所回落或维持在相对合理的位置.     

Die Auswirkungen des EEG auf das Energiesystem Deutschlands – Eine Betrachtung mit dem Energiesystemmodell TIMES-D

In Germany, the electricity generation from renewable energy has been promoted since the year 2000 by a feed-in tariff system, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). This article evaluates the long-term impact of the German feed-in tariffs on the development of the German energy system with the help of the energy system model TIMES-D. In the model-based analysis, both the payment side (i.e. the tariffs) and the cost side (i.e. the EEG apportionment) are taken into consideration. Through the promotion of the feed-in tariff system—in combination with the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)—the use of renewable energies in electricity generation in Germany rises considerably such that renewable energy sources account for almost 40% of total gross electricity consumption in 2030. Accordingly, until 2020 total EEG fee payments as well as the EEG apportionment increase significantly. The impact of the feed-in tariff system on final electricity demand is, however, relatively small. Alternative scenario settings show that the expansion of the renewable electricity generation through the feed-in tariff system clearly exceeds the development which would occur when trying to reach the reduction targets of the ETS in a cost-efficient way.     

外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响

本文利用UNCTAD数据和中国人口普查微观数据,基于地区就业的行业结构和贸易对象国对中国征收的行业层面的进口关税,构建地区层面外部关税变动指标,研究外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响。研究发现:(1)外部关税下降幅度越高的地区,总体就业、可贸易部门和不可贸易部门的就业增加也越多;(2)出口和内销规模扩张的就业创造效应、生产率提升的就业破坏效应,是外部关税下降影响地区可贸易部门就业的重要渠道;(3)外部关税下降带来的地区可贸易部门出口扩张、就业增加和工资上涨,通过产业关联和消费驱动等正向溢出效应增加地区不可贸易部门就业,通过就业的部门间再配置效应减少地区不可贸易部门就业;(4)外部关税下降对地区不可贸易部门就业的影响呈现出先抑制后促进的动态演进过程,这与外部关税变动下中国区域劳动力供给的调整紧密相关。此外,外部关税变动对地区不同属性劳动力就业的影响效果存在显著差异。本文的研究结论对于外部关税变动下稳定区域劳动力就业的相关政策制定具有一定的参考意义。     

A reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model

We study the impact of a hypothetical tax on sugar - sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the U.S. households’ nutrients purchase, welfare change, and health benefit. Differently from the traditional approach, Food at Home (FAH) is here defined as a “home” good instead of a market good and consumers’ demands derived under the assumption that households maximize utility subject to both a money and a time constraint. The model is estimated by using an incomplete approximate Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system on a data set built by merging the U.S. consumer expenditure and time use surveys. Results show that a SSB tax would be much more effective in decreasing household nutrients purchase than it would appear by estimating a model neglecting time costs in home food production, due to a lesser compensation of calories from increasing FAH consumption. A tax-induced 38% increase in SSB price is predicted to decrease the per capita energy purchase by 41 kcal/day.     

中国天然气发电产业发展现状及展望

中国燃气发电装机及发电量占比较小,发电用气占比低于全球平均水平;发电设备利用小时数较低,平均上网电价较高。当前中国天然气发电产业面临的挑战包括:政策体系尚不健全,产业定位不清晰;天然气资源保障存在不确定性;气电燃料与设备运维成本偏高;上网电价的定价机制尚待理顺;电力市场改革快速推进,市场竞争更加激烈。中国电力需求将延续增长态势,电源结构向低碳转型;中国天然气行业处于高速发展期,气源供应保障能力进一步提升;供给宽松期叠加市场化改革加速期,促进发电用气成本下降;燃气发电电力工程造价呈下降趋势,这些都是天然气发电产业的机遇。展望"十四五"期间,实现"十三五"气电装机规划目标存在较大难度;受经济性制约,"十四五"期间气电发展节奏的不确定性较大;生态环境约束背景下,中长期天然气发电发展空间依然广阔;中国天然气发电产业发展路径将呈现多元化趋势。     

国内外丙酮的生产现状及市场前景

近年来，世界丙酮的生产发展很快。但由于市场需求强劲和原料短缺导致生产受限，全球丙酮市场供应仍较为紧张。我国目前的丙酮产能也同样无法满足国内的需求，每年需要大量进口。通过对全球目前的丙酮生产现状和市场前景进行分析，认为丙酮在我国仍有较好的发展前景。但需要注意由于全球丙酮生产能力增长过快而出现的市场竞争。我国丙酮工业发展要降低生产成本，提高产品的竞争力，规避市场风险，要积极拓宽丙酮新的应用领域，以确保我国丙酮行业健康有序地发展。     

当前国内外油气行业发展形势及展望

2012年上半年,石油需求低迷,供应充足,库存高企,供需从2011年同期的偏紧转为宽松;国际油价波动较大,一季度升至2008年金融危机后的最高水平,二季度大幅回落.天然气市场需求和产量小幅增长,供需保持平衡;北美、欧洲、亚太三大天然气区域市场价差扩大.全球油气并购活动持续低迷,北美非常规气并购市场迅速降温.国际大石油公司生产经营指标下滑.中国石油需求增速大幅回落,对外依存度再创新高;成品油价格前升后降,石油石化行业效益持续下滑;天然气消费快速增长,进口量大幅上升,进口气价倒挂严重.下半年,预期世界经济依然疲软.石油供需仍将宽松,油价略有回升,但将低于去年同期水平;天然气供需继续平衡,三大市场价差仍将维持.中国经济企稳,国内成品油需求有望平稳增长,但涨幅低于预期;天然气将保持消费量与产量、进口量齐增的态势.     

研判“十二五”形势 把握市场发展机遇——“2011年石油市场形势研讨会”综述之国内篇

"十二五"是中国全面建设小康社会的关键时期,大机遇与大挑战并存。截至2010年底,中国原油一次加工能力已达到5.04亿吨/年,占全球产能的11.5%。中国炼油能力将继续增长,但总体仍处于国家宏观调控范围内,所谓炼油能力过剩都是结构性的。预计2011年中国炼油能力将进一步提升至5.3亿吨/年以上,同比增长5.26%;汽油需求保持平稳增长,总量将超过7500万吨;柴油需求为1.68亿吨,增速回落至7.5%;煤油需求将达到近1900万吨,同比增长8%以上。替代能源对未来国内成品油需求影响较大,尤其在交通用燃料方面,多元化的趋势明显。预计2020年中国各类替代燃料有望替代2800万吨成品油消费量,约占全国成品油消费量的10%。     

Consumption Externalities and Diffusion in Pharmaceutical Markets: Antiulcer Drugs

We examine the role of consumption externalities in the demand for pharmaceuticals at both the brand level and over a therapeutic class of drugs. Externalities emerge when use of a drug by others affects its value, and/or conveys information about efficacy and safety to patients and physicians. This can affect the rate of market diffusion for a new entrant, and can lead to dominance of one drug despite the availability of close substitutes. We use data for H₂-antagonist antiulcer drugs to estimate a dynamic demand model and quantify these effects. The model has three components: an hedonic price equation that measures how the aggregate usage of a drug, as well as conventional attributes, affect brand valuation; equations relating equilibrium market shares to quality-adjusted prices and marketing levels; and diffusion equations describing the dynamic adjustment process. We find that consumption externalities influence both valuations and rates of diffusion, and that they operate at the brand and not the therapeutic class level.     

Exploring the key services and players in the smart car market

The traditional role of cars as a means of transport is now expected to undergo major changes as a result of the emerging smart car industry, whereby connection to the Internet can not only improve traffic safety by enabling self-driving but also entertain passengers. Under these circumstances, it is important to explore the killer services that are expected to be in high demand by consumers and keystone players in the emerging market. This study identifies the promising services from a consumer's perspective using analytic hierarchy process analysis and examines experts' views on which industries and firms, as keystone players, are expected to provide the competitive killer services in the market. The results show that the service that consumers find the most important is driving assistance, followed by infotainment and Internet of Things hubs. Meanwhile, the experts rank the importance of industrial player as in the order of Information Technology device manufacturers, followed by platform providers, automobile manufacturers, and network providers, while at the company level, the rank is in the order of Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Naver, and SK Telecom, respectively. These findings show that consumers regard smart cars as futuristic vehicles, yet continue to emphasize their conventional value as a means of transport, while the experts expect that among the various industry players, IT companies are most likely to enable the concept of the smart car to become a reality.     

2011年我国成品油市场回顾及2012年展望

2011年,我国成品油消费增速有所放缓,全国炼油能力稳步增长;成品油仍保持净出口态势,但进口增速放缓,出口明显减少;国内市场整体供需平衡,但局部时段再次出现柴油供应紧张;成品油价格走势与国际油价基本一致,呈现阶梯式先涨后跌的态势。展望2012年,世界经济不确定性增强,我国经济增长将以稳为主,但增速略有回落。受此影响,国内成品油需求增速将继续小幅放缓。由于供应增长不足,全年供需整体偏紧,国内成品油价格将保持较高到位率,同时油品质量清洁化进程将进一步推进。     

国内丁腈橡胶生产及市场分析

概要分析了国内丁腈橡胶生产和市场供需关系,对进口丁腈橡胶的品牌和价格走势进行汇总和分析。     

丁腈橡胶产品的评述

通过对国内外丁腈橡胶产品供需及新产品开发的评述 ,指出世界丁腈橡胶生产能力已超出消费能力 ,但国内丁腈橡胶生产能力与消费能力却存在较大差距 ,待开发潜力很大 ;兰州石化公司引进日本瑞翁公司的生产技术 ,产品具有技术先进性和优良的综合性能 ,前景看好。     

Non-Exclusive Dealing with Retailer Differentiation and Market Penetration

Retailer differentiation exists in most industries and gives manufacturers an incentive to contract with different retailers to penetrate a market. This paper analyzes the impact of this penetration effect on vertical contract exclusivity in an oligopolistic model with differentiated retailers. In the model, manufacturers endogenously choose contract types and negotiate with retailers on wholesale prices. We show that, when the penetration effect is sufficiently strong, non-exclusive contracts lead to higher profits for the manufacturers and retailers. The model is applied to an example with logit demand, which shows that both manufacturers choosing the non-exclusive contracts is a dominant-strategy Nash equilibrium even though they may both be better off under exclusive contracts when the products have high quality or low costs.