THE WAR ON DRUGS 2.0: DARKNET FENTANYL'S RISE AND THE EFFECTS OF REGULATORY AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ACTION

U.S. overdose deaths attributed to synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, have increased from under 3,000 in 2013 to nearly 20,000 in 2016, making up half of all opioid‐related overdose deaths. Using web scrapes of darknet markets from 2014 to 2016, I provide historical prices for fentanyl and its most popular analogues and find that fentanyl vendors priced fentanyl in 2014 at a 90% discount compared to an equivalent dose of heroin. Using regression discontinuity, I evaluate the effects of two major law enforcement and regulatory events. I find minimal lasting effects of U.S. legal actions intended to disrupt darknet markets, but there are statistically significant indications of a price increase corresponding with regulatory action in China. Despite these indications of some regulatory success, fentanyl prices remained approximately 90% cheaper than heroin. (JEL I18, K42)     

CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This paper derives estimating equations from a model where individuals consume two classes of goods, and the degree of contract enforcement affects the transaction cost of trade in the two classes of goods differentially. Empirically, using Rauch's classification, internationally traded goods are classified into differentiated goods and those possessing a reference price, with the presumption that contract enforcement issues are more important for the former. It is verified that the measures of contract enforcement affect the volume of trade in both types of goods, but the impact is larger for differentiated goods.     

INTERNATIONAL ANTITRUST ENFORCEMENT AND MULTIMARKET CONTACT*

This article analyzes cartel formation and international antitrust enforcement when multinational firms operate in several jurisdictions with local antitrust authorities. We are concerned with how the sustainability of collusion in one local market is affected by the existence of collusion in other markets when they are linked by a negative demand relationship. The interdependence of cartel stability across markets leads to potential externalities in antitrust enforcement across jurisdictions. Local antitrust enforcement equilibrium enforcement may exhibit a nonmonotonicity in the degree of market integration. We compare it with globally optimal antitrust enforcement policy and discuss the role of international antitrust coordination.     

资本外逃对中国宏观经济的影响

针对近年来我国资本外逃呈现愈演愈烈的趋势,许多研究试图解释它的主要动机、方式和渠道,并运用不同的方法对其规模进行估算。区别于上述研究,本文利用模拟模型就资本外逃对我国宏观经济的影响进行定量分析。模型结果显示,一方面,资本外逃可导致实际利息率的提高,从而降低私人消费、投资和总需求,失业率提高;另一方面,资本外逃导致低通胀的环境,低通胀同时意味着我国承受了较低的货币贬值的压力,并且保持了出口增长。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ILLICIT DRUG ENFORCEMENT POLICY AND PROPERTY CRIMES

Some justify the law enforcement emphasis on controlling illicit drug markets by contending that drug users attempting to finance their habits often are responsible for property crime. Yet, in Florida at least, the increased effort to control drug markets has been accompanied by increasing property crime. The fact is that law enforcement resources are scarce, and many resources now being devoted to enforcing drug laws have been shifted away from enforcing laws pertaining to other crimes. This has reduced deterrence for property crime and, as a result, such crime has increased. Thus, the resource reallocations accompanying strong drug law enforcement lead to more property crime.     

LIMITED ENFORCEMENT,FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION,AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT*

We present a model of economic development where the importance of financial differences caused by limited enforcement can be measured. Economies where enforcement is poor direct less capital to the production sector and employ less efficient technologies. Calibrated simulations reveal that the resulting effect on output is large. Furthermore, the model correctly predicts that the average scale of production should rise with the quality of enforcement. Finally, we find that the importance of limited enforcement rises with the importance of capital in production.     

论主题公园的区域经济影响、建设与发展

主题公园经过近50年的发展，已经成为世界各地重要的旅游吸引物，是继名山大川和文物古迹之后出现的一个新亮点。主题公园建设对区域经济发展的影响是多方面的，如合理配置区域资源、提升区域核心竞争力、优化区域产业结构、驱动区域社会经济综合发展等。但不合理的主题公园建设也会给社会经济发展带来负面影响。文章在以上论述的基础上，认真探讨了主题公园合理建设与发展的基本途径。     

THE HEARTY AND CHEERY STATE

Progress is usually defined by the growth rate of real per capita income. It is not a sufficient statistic but one that has to do. The extent to which the accumulation of ordinary human capital is responsible for progress is examined. There is, I contend, no place for a concept of entrepreneurial human capital in a positive theory of growth. Professional human capital appears to be a consequence of growth and not a causal force. In an uncertain world, there is no way to guarantee growth. The best that one can do is to create an environment in which individuals are guaranteed the freedom to pursue those activities that they judge to be in their best interest. ( JEL O40)     

CONSUMER BANKRUPTCY AND CHAPTER CHOICE: STATE PANEL EVIDENCE

Between 1985 and 1996, the number of personal bankruptcy cases filed annually in the United States rose from 341,000 to 1.1 million, and the rate of bankruptcies per 100,000 adults increased from 203 to 596. By state, bankruptcy rates vary from a low of 147 in Hawaii to a high of 956 in Tennessee. A controversial aspect of bankruptcy policy is the discharge of debts permitted under Chapter 7, in contrast to Chapter 13, where the debtor agrees to repay all or a portion of unsecured debt over a 3-5-year period. This paper examines empirically the determinants of the frequency with which individuals choose Chapter 13 relative to Chapter 7 (chapter choice). The panel data set is a cross section of states and the District of Columbia for the 8-year period from fiscal year 1989 to 1996. The empirical model and policy application focus on the importance of several laws for bankruptcy decisions, and legal variables are included for each state's Chapter 7 homestead exemption, personal property exemptions, and garnishment laws. This study shows that both homestead exemption laws and garnishment laws are statistically significant for bankruptcy choices. Although the marginal effect of the homestead exemption is small, there is a large range under current laws, suggesting that changes in this exemption are important for bankruptcy policy. ( JEL K1, K4, D2, D9)