《日美贸易协定》对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策

本文在分析日美农产品关税、贸易和在《日美贸易协定》中降税情况的基础上,采用GTAP模型定量分析《协定》实施对我国农产品贸易的影响。结果显示:《协定》的实施将对我国农业总体发展产生一定冲击,日美相互减免农产品关税将带来一定程度的贸易转移效应,尤其对我国出口日本的蔬果和畜产品影响尤为明显。结合我国自贸区谈判和农业发展情况,本文提出积极推动多双边农业谈判、培育出口竞争优势、借鉴日本经验灵活处理农产品降税、利用自贸试验区积极对接农业国际规则等政策建议。     

入世后我国农业贸易格局和效率的变化

加入世贸组织后．我国农业贸易（不包括渔业产品）出现了两大令人瞩目的变化。农业进出口总值在徘徊多年之后，仅4年就翻了一番；同时，从2003年之后，长久以来保持并呈扩大趋势的农产品贸易顺差转瞬间消失，由于进口额的暴涨，出现了历史上不多见的逆差。本文从贸易结构和效率的角度考查了我国农业贸易井喷似增长的合理性．和进出口的实践是否体现了贸易的经济效率。初步结论如下：第一，入世后农业贸易急剧增长是合理的，因为出口增长反映了我国农业的相对优势：①地域空间下的土地禀赋相对优势；②生产过程和加工过程的独特性；和③劳动力要素禀赋。进口的增长在很大程度上是制成品出口增长拉动的，从整个产业链来看，并不存在贸易逆差；第二入世后农业贸易的经济效率急需提高．贱卖贵买是贸易急剧增长中的一个特别突出的问题。如假定我国农产品进出口的价格与世界其他国家的价格相同，在2003-2004年间，我国农产品出口总额可以增加近35亿美元，而进口支付总额可以减少近38亿美元。贸易自由化总是趋于提高贸易的广度和深度，如果贸易经济效率低下，既不能把握机会，也无力面对竞争；第三，要充分发挥农业贸易体系对社会主义新农村建设的积极作用，我们必须抓住两个基本点：一是提高我国农业贸易的合理性和经济效率；二是让农民从农业贸易中获得更多的收益。     

WTO框架下的农产品关税配额问题研究

关税配额是农产品国际贸易中由非关税措施向关税化过渡的主要途径，是市场准入方面的重要内容之一。自乌拉圭回合以后，关税配额已成为世贸组织农业谈判中被广泛关注的问题，也是争议性极大的问题，直到目前，各世贸成员仍然未能就关税配额的设置及其管理模式达成一致的协议。本文对世贸组织成员中关税配额的内容设置及其执行情况进行了深入研究和比较分析，考察了中国农产品关税配额的设置及执行情况，探讨了新一轮农业谈判中对于关税配额问题的争论焦点及发展趋势，并提出了在未来世贸组织农业谈判中我国应该持有的立场和采取的对策。     

中国农产品贸易格局的实证分析

随着世界经济全球化和区域一体化的发展，各国家（地区）间的经贸往来越来越密切，农产品贸易作为世界经济的重要组成部分，国际市场的变化深刻影响着各国（地区）农业及农产品对外贸易的发展。本文旨在通过分析我国农产品贸易格局的分布和变化特征，以及农产品贸易格局的主要影响因素，认识和掌握我国农产品对外贸易的发展特点和发展优势。论文主要采用实证研究的方法，在数据分析和国际比较的基础上，对我国农产品贸易格局的特征和影响因素进行了分析，并探讨我国农产品贸易格局改进的潜力和空间。     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

贸易摩擦、中国农产品市场引力效应与伙伴国贸易前景——基于随机模型及15国数据的实证研究

中国是全球农产品市场增长主导力量,具有强大市场引力效应.在中美贸易摩擦下,中国市场已成为影响全球农产品贸易的关键因素.在运用随机前沿引力模型测算贸易效率和运用显示性竞争比较优势指数测算产品竞争力的基础上,提出交叉分析预测贸易前景的方法,测算2018年15个国家农产品在中国市场的贸易前景,揭示中关贸易摩擦对贸易前景的短期...     

Conceptualising multifunctional agriculture from a global perspective: Implications for governing agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era

The notion of multifunctional agriculture has been researched from diverse disciplines including economics, sociology, political economy, and geography since the URAA. In particular, the economics approach represents an attempt to tailor the concept of multifunctional agriculture to market- oriented WTO trade regime. The approach has been fundamentally troubled by the lack of concord among WTO member countries on the question of what constitutes multifunctional agriculture. This article redefines multifunctional agriculture as a concept encompassing six components that are extremely heterogeneous in their nature of external benefits. Upon examining different positions taken by the US, the EU, the Cairns group, LDCs, and the G10, this article develops a conceptual model explaining why the notion of multifunctional agriculture is conceived so differently across countries. The model posits that institutions, natural resources endowment, ecological conditions, farm policies, and culture/history unique to each country would determine the state of economic development and agricultural competitiveness in a country, which in turn shape the pattern of social demand for various components of multifunctional agriculture. The theorizing undertakes to overcome the Euro- centrism that has dictated the discourse of multifunctional agriculture since the URAA. Implications are discussed for the governance of agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era.     

基于户外交往的聚落空间解析——以巍山县城为例

本研究以云南省大理市巍山县城为例,从县城历史空间形态的演变及细部交往空间入手,通过从大的社会文化交往到小的人民生活交往的分析方法,探讨了空间组织及其设计和社会生活与交往之间的关系,以期引导空间设计及组织能够更好地结合现代社会生活与交往。     

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial‐equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non‐OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non‐OECD countries.     

中日蔬菜贸易增长因素的实证分析

近年来，中日蔬菜贸易遇到很多的阻力，从促进中日蔬菜贸易增长的角度出发，有必要对中日蔬菜贸易进行实证分析和探讨。本研究首先通过测算比较优势系数明确了中国蔬菜出口的比较优势所在；其次，运用贸易引力模型对日本与其蔬菜进口来源地之间的贸易影响因素进行了实证分析；再次运用进口模型对影响中日蔬菜贸易增长的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：受日本国内内在因素的影响，中日蔬菜贸易增长将是一个长期趋势。     

农业要素禀赋结构、农业制度安排与农业工业化进程的理论逻辑探析

中国农业转型背后的一般规律是什么?本文阐释了农业要素禀赋结构升级与农业制度安排演化统一于农业工业化进程的理论逻辑,认为在农业要素禀赋结构沿循从劳动要素丰裕向资本要素丰裕,并最终向技术要素丰裕升级的同时,农业制度安排的重点也沿着打破城乡二元身份制度,向有利于农业规模经营的土地产权制度、引导资本下乡的农业反哺制度以及满足农...     

Impacts and causes of land fragmentation, and lessons learned from land consolidation in South Asia

Landholdings and land parcels in South Asia are undergoing fragmentation, thereby accelerating the pace of their degradation and constraining agricultural development. Based on experiences gained in the region and elsewhere, this paper finds the fragmentation of small landholdings and tiny land parcels detrimental to land conservation and economic gain, thereby discouraging farmers from adoption of agricultural innovations. Primarily induced by the dependency of the major proportion of ever growing population on agriculture, the process of land fragmentation has been reinforced by the law of inheritance of paternal property, lack of progressive tax on inherited land, heterogeneous land quality and an underdeveloped land market. South Asian countries have had adopted policies and legal measures for facilitating land consolidation. However, desirable results were not achieved, as such interventions could not address structural causes of the problem. Broad policy and legal measures have been outlined for facilitating land consolidation in a sustainable way.