Are insiders equal? Evidence from earnings management in closely held East Asian firms

In analyzing newly collected data on the ultimate ownership structure of publicly traded firms in nine East Asian economies, we contribute to international accounting research by providing evidence on earnings management in insider-controlled firms in this region. We find that family-controlled firms engage in less (more) accrual-based (real) earnings management than other insider-controlled firms. Our analysis suggests that controlling families, unlike other types of ultimate owners, tend to substitute real earnings management for accrual-based earnings management. To help empirically clarify the role that two incentives (entrenchment versus signaling) play in driving the substitution between real and accruals-based earnings management, we examine their valuation impact and find that both types negatively affect the future valuation of family firms. In another set of results consistent with expectations, we document that country-level investor protection and firm external financing demand shape the practice of earnings management in family-controlled firms.     

Bancassurance in East Asia: Cultural impact on customers’ cross-buying behaviour

Amid rapid growth of bancassurance in East Asian countries, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan, the article examines the determinants of this growth in these two countries, by testing the influence of ‘collectivism’ as a proxy for national culture on the relationship between cross-buying determinants and customers’ cross-buying intentions. The interviews were conducted during 2011 and 2012 with 13 professional senior managers and academics engaged in customers’ cross-buying activities of bancassurance in South Korea and Taiwan. ‘Perceived value’, ‘trust’, ‘image’ and ‘satisfaction’ were found to be the key determinants of customers’ cross-buying intentions on bancassurance in South Korea and Taiwan, among which ‘trust’ and ‘satisfaction’ were significantly influenced by ‘collectivism’. The article confirms that, even between countries with similar levels of ‘collectivism’, the influence of ‘collectivism’ can differ because of the determinants of cross-buying intentions on bancassurance.     

Are you in with the in crowd?

At the core of your company, there is a group of people who seem to call the shots--or, rather, all the shots seem to be called for their benefit. This core group can't be found on any organization chart. It exists in people's hearts and minds. It comprises the people whose perceived interests and needs are taken into account as decisions are made throughout the organization. In most companies, talking explicitly about this group is taboo; its existence seems to contradict the vital corporate premise that we all have a common stake in the firm's success. In the best organizations, the core group can be a resource: Members represent the unique values and knowledge that distinguish their companies. When core groups display independence, creativity, and power, the rest of the company follows. Such behavior on the part of the company, in turn, creates value for shareholders, especially over the long term. But because of the core group's enormous power, members need to make themselves aware of the signals they send, both intended and unintended. For better and for worse, the core group reinforces whatever it pays attention to. A core group member who casually mentions a product might well discover three weeks later that someone has spent $1 million introducing it. If you do not know who constitutes the core group in your organization, or what the members stand for, you may find that leading will be extremely difficult--even if you are ostensibly the person in charge. If you want to move the organization in a new direction, you may need to explicitly challenge the core group. Otherwise the rest of the organization will not go along.     

Fear of floating in Asia and the credibility of true floaters?

Quite often, countries commit to free floating exchange rate (ER) regimes but do not allow their ERs to float freely, exhibiting a fear of floating. We revisit ER regimes in Asia following the work of Calvo and Reinhart (2002), and also develop a new flexibility index based on probabilities gauging interventions in FX market. In light of our findings, we cannot disregard the existence of fear of floating in Asia, and find that economies widely known as truly floating economies exhibit this fear too. Further, the results validate our concerns regarding the IMF’s methodology of regime classification intermingling credible inflation targeting with fear of floating.     

Is the Virtual Integration of Financial Markets Beneficial in Emerging Markets? Evidence from MILA

This article analyzes whether the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA) has been beneficial for its participants. Using a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), we found evidence that creating MILA increased the correlation levels in stock returns of member countries. Evidence indicates that this increase occurs mainly due to the increase in traded volume in the country with the least developed stock market—Peru.

In short, findings suggest that in an integration process such as MILA, as stock market members differ, in terms of stock market development, the markets will benefit from the integration. However, in the long term these benefits dissipate over time.     

Are There Sectoral Anomalies Too? The Pitfalls of Unreported Multiple Hypothesis Testing and a Simple Solution

The recent emphasis on sector-specific investment strategies has led to the emergence of industry-specific calendar anomalies, notably the technology sector summer swoon. A standard t-test implies that these price movements provide arbitrage opportunities. However, this test fails to account for the many tests that may have preceded the swoons discovery. We propose the use of the Bonferroni correction to account for this unreported testing. Its application reverses the conclusions about the summer swoon and finds no evidence of calendar-based price patterns in any other sector. We also use the Bonferroni correction to revisit previously documented, market-wide, anomalies. Conclusions about the most widely cited anomalies (e.g., the January effect) are unchanged, but evidence for some other anomalies is substantially weakened. Our results emphasize that in evaluating a proposed anomaly, sectoral in nature or otherwise, it is crucial to account for the hypotheses that were likely to have been tested but not reported.     

Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?

We explore whether there are common factors in the cross-section of individual commodity futures returns. We test various asset pricing models which have been employed for the equities market as well as models motivated by commodity pricing theories. The use of these families of models allows us also to test whether the commodities and equities market are integrated. In addition, we employ principal components factor models which do not require à priori specification of factors. We find that none of the models is successful. Our results imply that commodity markets are segmented from the equities market and they are considerably heterogeneous per se.     

Are capital controls in the foreign exchange market effective?

One of the reasons for governments to employ capital controls is to obtain some degree of monetary independence. In this paper we test whether capital controls can reduce the link between exchange rates fluctuations and cross border interest differentials. Recent capital control proxies are used in order to determine the date of capital account liberalization for a panel of Western European and emerging countries. Results show that capital controls have a very limited effect on observed deviations from interest parities, even when accounting for the political risk associated with capital controls.     

Are audit fees discounted in initial year audit engagements?

Many studies report that audit fees are discounted in the year of an auditor change and regulators have long been concerned that such fee discounting could impair audit quality. We find significant bias in the way studies have tested for fee discounting. The bias exists because interim procedures are usually performed by both the predecessor and successor auditors but only the successor's fee needs to be disclosed. Accordingly, the disclosed fee during the auditor change year usually relates to a partial year of auditing services. We find that the evidence for fee discounting disappears after correcting for this measurement bias.     

Are CEOs compensated for value destroying growth in earnings?

Prior research shows that firms generating earnings growth by improving profitability create shareholder value, while firms generating earnings growth through investment destroy value. This paper examines whether compensation committees consider this while determining CEO compensation. We first confirm prior results that growth from increased profitability is perceived by markets to add value while growth from investment does not. While growth from increased profitability is positively associated with compensation, so is growth from investment. The presence of institutional ownership increases the weight on growth from increased profitability, but does not reduce the weight on growth from investment. Further, value-oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to growth from increased profitability and reduces the sensitivity to growth from investment. Contrarily, growth-oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to growth from investment. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the nature of earnings growth in determining executive compensation.     

Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper investigates the effects of household indebtedness and housing wealth on consumption. To identify exogenous movements of housing wealth...     

Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?

According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower over long horizons than over short horizons, due to mean reversion induced by return predictability. In contrast, we find that stocks are substantially more volatile over long horizons from an investor's perspective. This perspective recognizes that parameters are uncertain, even with two centuries of data, and that observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. Mean reversion contributes strongly to reducing long‐horizon variance but is more than offset by various uncertainties faced by the investor. The same uncertainties reduce desired stock allocations of long‐horizon investors contemplating target‐date funds.     

A new financial order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?

The objective of this paper is three-fold. First, the monetary and exchange rate regimes of the Asian countries are described and analyzed. The degrees of flexibility in exchange rates and capital controls vary across countries. Some countries have adopted a flexible inflation targeting framework, while others have pursued exchange rate targeting. The paper presents a new result of a tradeoff between price stability and exchange rate stability in the hyperbolic relationship of Asian countries. Second, a framework that analyzes and quantifies the degree of currency internationalization is proposed and applied to the RMB. In every indicator, the RMB’s weight in private-sector international finance has grown in the last several years, both in the private and public sectors. In the settlement role of currency, the RMB is ranked 8th in the BIS survey and 7th in SWIFT usage. This paper exploits data of a recent period when the RMB became de-pegged from the USD and show some of the emerging Asian currencies co-moving with the RMB, more so than the USD. In the official sector, RMB is also increasing its weight. The Chinese central bank has extended the currency-swap agreements with 30-some countries, so that the RMB can be used for trade finance and liquidity assistance. The RMB is adopted as a composition currency of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), effective in October 2016, with 10.92%, ranking number 3, surpassing the JPY and GBP. Finally, potential impending changes in the Asian monetary and exchange rate regimes in Asia are discussed. Projecting the growth of the Chinese economy into the future, the weight of the RMB in the financial markets will increase globally as well as in Asia.     

Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?

In this paper we develop a discrete-time pricing model for European options where the log-return of the underlying asset is subject to discontinuous regime shifts in its mean and/or volatility which follow a Markov chain. The model allows for multiple regime shifts whose risk cannot be hedge out and thus must be priced in option market. The paper provides estimates of the price of regime-shift risk coefficients based on a joint estimation procedure of the Markov regime-switching process of the underlying stock and the suggested option pricing model. The results of the paper indicate that bull-to-bear and bear-to-crash regime shifts carry substantial prices of risk. Risk averse investors in the markets price these regime shifts by assigning higher transition (switching) probabilities to them under the risk neutral probability measure than under the physical. Ignoring these sources of risk will lead to substantial option pricing errors. In addition, the paper shows that investors also price reverse regime shifts, like the crash-to-bear and bear-to-bull ones, by assigning smaller transition probabilities under the risk neutral measure than the physical. Finally, the paper evaluates the pricing performance of the model and indicates that it can be successfully employed, in practice, to price European options.     

Are leaders portable?

Does management talent transfer from one company to another? The market certainly seems to think so. Stock prices spike when companies announce new CEOs from a talent generator like General Electric. But how do these executives perform over the long term? The authors studied the careers of 20 former GE executives who went on to lead other major organizations, with strikingly uneven results. Even the best management talent, the authors found, is transferable only if it maps to the challenges of the new environment. More specifically, the authors identified five types of skills that may or may not transfer to a new job: general management human capital, or the skills to gather, cultivate, and deploy financial, technical, and human resources; strategic human capital, or individuals' expertise in cost cutting, growth, or cyclical markets; industry human capital, meaning the technical and regulatory knowledge unique to an industry; relationship human capital, or the extent to which a manager's effectiveness can be attributed to his or her experience working with colleagues or as part of a team; and company-specific human capital, or the knowledge about routines and procedures, corporate culture and informal structures, and systems and processes that are unique to a company. The GE executives' performance as CEOs depended on whether their new organizations were able to leverage each type of skill. The authors'findings challenge the conventional wisdom on human capital, which holds that there are two types of skill: general management, which is readily transferable, and company specific, which is not. In fact, they argue, other types of management capabilities can make a significant contribution to performance, and company-specific skills can be an asset in a new job.     

Are cryptocurrencies homogeneous?

This article investigates if cryptocurrencies returns' are similarly affected by a selection of demand- and supply-side determinants. Homogeneity among cryptocurrencies is tested via a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model where determinants of Bitcoin returns are applied to a sample of 12 cryptocurrencies. The analysis goes beyond existing research by simultaneously covering different periods and design choices of cryptocurrencies. The results show that cryptocurrencies are heterogeneous, apart from some similarities in the impact of technical determinants and cybercrime. The cryptocurrency market displays evidence of substitution effects, and design choices related explain the impact of the determinants of return.     

Are conditional illiquidity risks priced in China? A cross-sectional test

In this study, we theoretically derive conditional illiquidity risks from the conditional liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (CLCAPM) that we propose by incorporating funding illiquidity into the LCAPM, and we examine whether they are priced empirically in China's A-share market. We provide new evidence of the positive premiums of conditional illiquidity risks even after controlling for mispricing signals and sentiment. The finding suggests that conditional illiquidity risk could be an alternative channel to explain the cross-section of stock returns. Moreover, investors could obtain higher premiums as compensation for their tolerance of more highly conditional illiquidity risks during high market volatility (low market returns) periods.     

Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?

The negative relationship between realized idiosyncratic volatility (RIvol) and future returns uncovered by Ang et al. (2006) for the U.S. market has been attributed to return reversals. For the Canadian market where return reversals are considerably less important, we find that RIvol is positively related to future returns, even after controlling for risk loadings, illiquidity and reversals. Unlike the findings of Bali et al. (2001) for the U.S. market, we find that the relationship between extreme positive returns (MAX) and future returns for the Canadian market is positive and that idiosyncratic volatility continues to be consistently positively related to future returns after controlling for MAX. We find evidence that suggests that reversals for stocks with extreme daily returns are confined to (typically small) stocks with low institutional holdings.     

Are carry,momentum and value still there in currencies?

We show that carry, momentum and value predictability in currencies is associated with mispricing. Specifically, investment performance disappears subsequent to published evidence showing portfolio returns are not fully explained by risk. Replicating these studies, we show that the average out-of-sample Sharpe ratio decreases from +0.39 to −0.32. Cross sectional tests show that currencies no longer respond to interest rate and real exchange rate differentials. During this period currency excess returns do not exhibit autocorrelation. Our results are consistent with investors learning about mispricing from academic research.