Trade Logistics in Developing Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper presents an analysis of obstacles facing exporting firms in developing countries by diagnosing the efficiency of trade logistics in the Middle East and North Africa region (MNA). Using logistics chain analysis for six export commodities, it presents evidence that transport and non‐transport logistics costs for export commodities from the MNA region are quite substantial, ranging from 7–25 per cent of landed product prices. Underlying these costs are key bottlenecks identified as: inefficient trucking and transport services, low export volume leading to long shipping times and the need for costly inventory accumulation, aggressive, obstructive customs authorities and procedures, low and inconsistent product quality, an underdeveloped transport intermediary sector, inefficient cross‐border transit procedures and others. Recommended actions to address developing a national transport policy, overhauling the regulatory regime for the trucking sector, export promotion measures, increasing competition in port and air freight services, reorienting customs authorities towards trade facilitation and developing cross‐border transit procedures similar to the TIR Carnets model.     

Dynamic Benchmarking of Mass Transit Systems in the United States Using Data Envelopment Analysis and the Malmquist Productivity Index

For more than five decades, the federal, state, and local governments have subsidized mass transit systems through sales, gasoline, and property taxes with an expectation that it would improve mobility to low‐income citizens, reduce carbon footprints and traffic congestion, and facilitate regional economic growth. However, in times of financial crisis and chronic government budget deficits, the inefficient use of a mass transit system can increase public outcry over the wasteful spending of government funds and taxpayers’ monies. To find ways to utilize mass transit systems more efficiently across the United States, this paper aimed to identify the benchmark transit practices that every mass transit system can emulate and then continuously improve its performance. To achieve these goals, this paper analyzed the multiple years of past performances of 262 mass transit agencies in the United States using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index and then provided practical guidelines for enhancing mass transit efficiency.     

Are Two Incomes Needed to Prosper Today? Evidence from the 1960s to the 1990s

Consumer Expenditure Survey data from 1960 to 1996 are used to examine trends in real consumption, real after‐tax income, market work time, and real after‐tax wages for single‐earner and dual‐earner households. Over the entire time period, most households experienced substantial improvements in measures of their prosperity. However, economic progress was considerably reduced when the comparison was from 1972 to 1996. Also, wage changes dominated changes in market work time over all time periods.     

The impact of execution delay on the profitability of put‐call‐futures trading strategies—Evidence from Taiwan

This study examines the impact of execution delay on the profitability of put‐call‐futures quasi‐arbitrage strategies using trade and quote data in the Taiwanese market. Assuming order execution at the next immediate price following a mispricing signal, the execution of individual components is traced and a substantial delay resulting from the late execution of an option is reported. A fill‐or‐kill strategy that directly restricts such a delay is unsatisfactory because unwinding already acquired positions involves added transaction costs. Ex ante performance is significantly improved for combined strategies that execute the less liquid asset first, while shortening the time before acquisition of the first position. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:361–385, 2007     

Entrepôt Trade and Smuggling in West Africa: Benin,Togo and Nigeria

Official trade statistics indicate very little intra‐African trade, but this is often because of the prevalence of unrecorded trade, particularly smuggling. This paper explores smuggling from Benin and Togo into Nigeria. Nigeria has very high import tariffs and bans on certain products. Togo and Benin have deliberately maintained low import barriers to facilitate an Entrepôt role vis‐à‐vis Nigeria and land‐locked Sahelian countries. Togo competes at a geographic disadvantage relative to Benin for access to the Nigerian market and compensates with lower transit taxes. The volume and composition of cross‐border trade is analysed using data obtained from Benin and Togo customs authorities, as well as interviews with traders and customs officials in both countries. Benin and to a lesser extent Togo are the origin of a very large volume of transshipment of precisely those products which are heavily protected in Nigeria, such as used cars, cloth and rice. It is common knowledge in Benin and Togo that these imports, although declared for domestic consumption or transit to other countries, are in fact overwhelmingly intended for Nigeria. Smuggling is a major source of income and employment in Benin and Togo, but provides a fragile and unreliable foundation for economic development.     

Volatility dynamics of NYMEX natural gas futures prices

We examine the volatility dynamics of NYMEX natural gas futures prices via the partially overlapping time‐series model of Smith (2005. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 405–422). We show that volatility exhibits two important features: (1) volatility is greater in the winter than in the summer, and (2) the persistence of price shocks and, hence, the correlations among concurrently traded contracts, displays substantial seasonal and cross‐sectional variation in a way consistent with the theory of storage. We demonstrate that, by ignoring the seasonality in the volatility dynamics of natural gas futures prices, previous studies have suggested sub‐optimal hedging strategies. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:438–463, 2008     

Who should sell stocks?

Never selling stocks is optimal for investors with a long horizon and a realistic range of preference and market parameters, if relative risk aversion, investment opportunities, proportional transaction costs, and dividend yields are constant. Such investors should buy stocks when their portfolio weight is too low and otherwise hold them, letting dividends rebalance to cash over time rather than selling. With capital gains taxes, this policy outperforms both static buy‐and‐hold and dynamic rebalancing strategies that account for transaction costs. Selling stocks becomes optimal if either their target weight is low or intermediate consumption is substantial.     

Privatisation and the unusual case of Belarusian accession to the WTO

The accession negotiations of Belarus to the WTO are unusual since, due to its obligations in the Eurasian Economic Union, WTO accession is not expected to impact its tariffs or formerly substantial trade‐distorting agricultural subsidies. Nonetheless, we estimate that WTO accession will increase welfare by 9.9% of consumption in Belarus. We show that inclusion of: (i) foreign direct investment; (ii) reduction in non‐discriminatory barriers against services providers; and (iii) our model with imperfect competition and endogenous productivity effects together produce estimated gains eleven times larger than a model of perfect competition with only cross‐border trade in services. Our analysis is enabled by our production of a data set on both discriminatory and non‐discriminatory barriers in services and their ad valorem equivalents. Based on a new data set on labour productivity by sector and type of ownership, in our central model, we estimate that privatisation will increase welfare by 35.8% of consumption. We find substantial variance in the estimated gains from privatisation depending on model assumptions, but all the estimates of the impacts of privatisation indicate substantial welfare gains.     

Optimal and Approximate Policies for Inventory Systems With Order Crossover

A common assumption in inventory analysis is that replenishment orders arrive in the same sequence in which they were placed. In practice, however, a variety of factors may cause orders to arrive out of sequence, a phenomenon known as order crossover. This article analyzes a periodic‐review inventory system for a single item with discrete variable demand and discrete variable and long lead‐times (relative to the review period). Under such a scenario, multiple orders are simultaneously outstanding, and orders may arrive in a different sequence than placed. If such order crossover occurs, traditional inventory analysis overstates expected shortages and standard inventory control policies are no longer optimal. This article discusses why orders may cross over in practice and investigates the implications of order crossover to inventory management policies. We investigate the cost performance of optimal policies under order crossover and also suggest approximate policies which are easier to compute and implement. Both the optimal and approximate policies take advantage of detailed real‐time information about the status of pending orders and goods in transit, and hence in a majority of cases perform better than commonly used policies which do not incorporate such information.     

Time,uncertainty and trade flows

This paper quantifies the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large data set on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under 1% at the sample median. In addition, and for the first time in the literature, we examine the impact of time-related uncertainty, which requires traders to hold costly inventories or build costly redundancies into supply chains. We find that a one day increase in international transport time uncertainty reduces bilateral trade flows by just over 1%. Splitting the sample into developing and developed countries shows that international transit time matters primarily for south–south trade, whereas uncertainty is relatively more important for north–north trade. Using new data on trade in intermediate versus final goods, we also find some evidence that time and uncertainty both matter more for movements of intermediates of the type that takes place within global value chains.     

Discounting in International Markets and the Face Value Effect: A Double‐ Edged Sword?

Consumer response to price is often subjective and prone to systematic perceptual biases, such as the “face value” effect, whereby consumer perceptions of willingness to pay are systematically biased by the nominal value of a new currency. That is, prices presented in higher denomination currencies are perceived to be more expensive and prices presented in lower denomination currencies are perceived to be less expensive. The results from two separate experiments suggest that for high‐price products, when a substantial enough discount is invoked, the face value effect can reverse and becomes a double‐edged sword. While existing research implies that the face value effect becomes stronger for high‐price products, the findings from this research suggest this is the case only when the product is not being promoted. The findings also reveal that the face value effect is robust for low‐price products, even when there is a discount, providing further evidence of the effect in new contexts. Consistent with earlier research, this is because in real terms the discount for a low‐price product is not perceived as substantial enough. The experiments also suggest that for high‐price products, discounts framed as absolute amounts in higher denomination currencies are perceived to be more substantial than discounts framed as percentage amounts. These findings extend existing theory on the face value effect and have several important managerial implications for pricing management in international markets.     

浅谈城市大运量公交车辆的发展与应用

快速公交系统(Bus Rapid Transit,BRT)是一种介于地铁与常规公交之间的城市公共交通系统,基于专用的路权、大运量的现代化公交车辆、先进的售票系统、公交优先信号控制、先进的乘客信息系统等技术,提供低成本高品质的公共运输服务。快速公交系统的优势已赢得了我国许多大中型城市的认同,已有北京、杭州、常州等多个城市具有商业运营的快速公交系统。快速公交系统的发展带动了公交车辆的大型化及现代化。对我国大部分的城市,建设真正意义上的快速捷运系统,并分担较多的城市交通量,需要时间。作为过渡阶段,大运量、现代化的公交车辆用于主要的常规公交线路上,将有助于部分地缓解我国常规公交存在的拥挤、服务品质低等问题。     

Pareto-improving and revenue-neutral congestion pricing schemes in two-mode traffic networks

This paper studies a Pareto-improving and revenue-neutral congestion pricing scheme on a simple two-mode (highway and transit) network: this scheme aims at simultaneously improving system performance, making every individual user better off, and having zero total revenue. Different Pareto-improving situations are explored when a two-mode transportation system serves for travel groups with different value-of-time (VOT) distributions. Since the congestion pricing scheme suggested here charges transit users negative tolls and automobile users positive tolls, it can be considered as a proper way to implement congestion pricing and transit subsidy in one step, while offsetting the inequity for the poor. For a general VOT distribution of commuters, the condition of Pareto-improving is established, and the impact of the VOT distribution on solving the inequity issue is explored. For a uniform VOT distribution, we show that a Pareto-improving and revenue-neutral pricing scheme always exists for any target modal split pattern that reduces the total system travel time.     

The Economic Burden of Health Care,Funeral, and Burial Expenditures at the End of Life

Research suggests that widows and wodowers experience substantial economic vulnerability. Using nationally representative data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys 1980–2000, we describe pre‐widowhood shifts in medical and funeral/burial expenditures and discuss how these changes may affect post‐widowhood economic well‐being. Our analyses suggest that funeral/burial and medical expenditures, when combined, typically constitute a 63.1% income share for recently widowed households. Discussion focuses on what role consumer educators can play in helping families better manage end‐of‐life expenditures.     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

Analyzing the Performance of Mass Transit Systems

A review of the literature indicates that transit systems have had difficulties determining meaningful and appropriate performance measures. Specifically, there has been little done in establishin effectiveness and efficiency measures for the transit industry. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, reasons for the lack of such measures in the transit agency will be discussed. Secondly, specific types of effectiveness and efficiency measures for the transit industry will be offered. Finally, the need for a more disaggregated measurement approach for the transit industry will be discussed.     

TRUST AND VIRTUAL DISTRICTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MILAN INTERNET EXCHANGE

Peering decisions between Internet Service Providers (ISPs) contain substantial non‐measurable aspects requiring trust and informal cooperation among peering partners. We study whether virtual districts are observed between Internet peers. Our empirical analysis of the bilateral peering decisions at the Milan Internet Exchange confirms that these decisions are significantly influenced by: travel time either between ISPs' headquarters or towards the exchange—a proxy for distance, bandwidth—a proxy for size, and European connectivity. Proximity still plays a role in reducing the transaction costs of monitoring and punishing deviant behavior within an industry where trust is essential for Internet universal connectivity.     

Some Aspects of Trade between Australia and Pacific Island Countries

Australia and Pacific Island countries (PICs) have maintained an ongoing trade and economic relationship for several years. The determinants of trade between Australia and PICs are examined using a gravity model by utilising time‐series cross‐country data for the period 1981 to 2005. The empirical findings indicate that imports by PIC from Australia are significantly determined by PICs’ population and their per capita GDP. The results also suggest that PICs’ exports are significantly determined by PICs and Australia's population, PICs’ infrastructure (telecommunications) and the distance to Australia. Consistent with the findings of other studies using the gravity model, distance is found to be a friction to PICs’ exports to Australia. While this study identifies factors influencing PICs’ trade with Australia, a more substantial issue for the governments and trade policy makers in PICs is to look into the generally disappointing long‐term trade performance. From a policy perspective, PICs would need to seriously look at increasing their export potential.     

THE SUCCESSFUL CROSS‐DOCK BASED SUPPLY CHAIN

A supply chain using the cross‐dock approach can speed goods from upstream suppliers to downstream customers quickly and cost‐effectively, with benefits to the entire chain, if the appropriate type of cross‐dock is chosen and then designed, staffed and managed for effective performance. Unlike a warehouse, which offers storage, a cross‐dock is a high performance rapid transit point that does not provide storage. Although cross‐docks have been studied with some thoroughness, what has not been seen clearly is that a cross‐dock does not operate in isolation and therefore can't be optimized independently from the upstream and downstream processes. To be successful, cross‐dock optimization makes demands for high performance on all members of the supply chain in terms of speed, effective planning, high reliability, near error‐proof processes and a high degree of transparency, visibility and information‐sharing; accordingly, the article refers to this integrative perspective as a “cross‐dock based supply chain.” To make clear this interdependency between the cross‐dock and the chain based on it, a new definition that classifies types of cross‐dock based supply chains is offered. To assist scholars analyzing and industry management choosing a cross‐dock approach, cross‐dock based supply chains are classified as falling into three different types. Lastly, based on field work in industry and on literature review, nine critical success factors for cross‐dock based supply chain operations are offered.     

The influence of cardinal‐, central‐, and surface‐level personality traits on consumers' bargaining and complaint intentions

This study investigates the possibility that a limited set of basic personality traits may underlie dispositions to bargain and to complain. A hierarchical model of personality was employed to investigate the relationship between cardinal‐, central‐, and surface‐level traits and their influence on behavioral intentions. A sample of adult respondents was randomly split into two groups and multiple‐group structural‐equation modeling techniques were employed. The analysis revealed that the hierarchical model fit the data from both samples well and that substantial variance in the endogenous constructs was explained. Managerial implications of understanding the traits associated with bargaining and complaining are discussed. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.