Factor Exposures of Foreign Equity Capital in a Domestic Stock Market: Evidence from Korea

In this paper, we examine the factor exposures of foreign equity capital in a domestic stock market in order to understand its risk‐taking behavior and sources of returns in the market. Using data from Korea for the 1999–2013 period, we find that foreigners are strongly exposed to the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) factor, which is long on low‐IVOL stocks and short on high‐IVOL stocks. That is, foreign equity capital is typically allocated to low‐IVOL stocks and profits from the return differential between low‐IVOL and high‐IVOL stocks. We also find that foreign equity capital moves in a way that it is loaded more on the IVOL factor when the IVOL factor premium is larger. We discuss the comparative advantage of foreign equity capital in bearing the IVOL factor risk and the role of information asymmetry between locals and foreigners in this risk sharing. We also provide additional empirical results that support our interpretation.     

Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model

This study develops a consumption-based asset pricing model in which domestic consumers can buy goods from domestic and foreign markets but can only invest in domestic markets. In this model, the exchange rate influences asset prices through the marginal utility of consumption and increases the risks investors face. We find that our model can successfully price the 25 Fama–French portfolios and industry portfolios in the Chinese market, and the exchange rate is an important pricing factor in the unconditional linear model. We also find that the exchange risk is time-varying and countercyclical, which can help to explain the countercyclicality in equity premium.     

Estimating the Cost‐of‐Equity Capital Using Empirical Asset Pricing Models

Empirical asset pricing models seek to capture characteristic‐based patterns in the cross‐section of average stock returns. I propose a new approach for constructing these models, and investigate its performance with respect to estimating the cost‐of‐equity capital. Using a model that accounts for the cross‐sectional relation between five characteristics and average stock returns, I obtain cost‐of‐equity estimates that outperform those produced by the Fama‐French five‐factor model in out‐of‐sample tests. Because the proposed approach builds directly on standard cross‐sectional regression techniques, it provides complete flexibility in choosing the firm characteristics used to formulate the cost‐of‐equity estimates.     

Media Corruption: A Chinese Characteristic

The core goal of this study is to empirically investigate whether there is a “world price” of corporate sustainability. This is assessed in the context of standard asset pricing models—in particular, by asking whether a risk premium attaches to a sustainability factor after controlling for the Fama–French factors. Both time-series and cross-sectional tests are formulated and applied. The results show that (1) global Fama–French factors have strong power to explain global equity returns and (2) sustainability investments have no significant impact on global equity returns. The absence of a significant relationship between sustainability and returns implies that large institutional investors are free to implement sustainability mandates without fear of breaching their fiduciary duties from realising negative returns due to incorporating a sustainability investment process.     

A Better Model? An Empirical Investigation of the Fama–French Five‐factor Model in Australia

Recently, Fama and French ( 2015a ) propose a five‐factor model by adding profitability and investment factors to their three‐factor model. This model outperforms the three‐factor model previously proposed by Fama and French ( 1993 ). Using an extensive sample over the 1982–2013 period, we investigate the performance of the five‐factor model in pricing Australian equities. We find that the five‐factor model is able to explain more asset pricing anomalies than a range of competing asset pricing models, which supports the superiority of the five‐factor model. We also find that despite the results documented by Fama and French ( 2015a ), the book‐to‐market factor retains its explanatory power in the presence of the investment and profitability factors. Our results are robust to alternative factor definitions and the formation of test assets. The study provides a strong out‐of‐sample test of the model, adding to the comparative evidence across international equity markets.     

Security Markets versus Bank Finance: Legal Enforcement and Investors' Protection

When minority investors’ rights are poorly protected, the ability of firms to raise equity capital is impaired, leading to less finance for new ventures. Fewer firms will be financed with outside equity, resulting in a low market capitalization relative to GNP. External funding requires easily enforceable claims such as debt or requires long‐term relationships with institutions. Provision of funding shifts from risk capital to debt, and to a predominance of intermediated over market finance. We report supporting evidence for a few countries. To measure investor protection, we use a price measure, the premium on voting stock, related to the control premium. In countries where the voting premium is large, corporate financing is dominated by bank lending and equity markets are much smaller.     

Virtue Remains After Removing Sin: Finding Skill Amongst Socially Responsible Investment Managers

We examine the investment skill of socially responsible investment (SRI) fund managers. Prior studies use the ‘alpha’ from standard asset pricing models as a proxy for management skill. However, implicit in the use of such models is that managers operate under no investment constraints. In the SRI context, this is patently false and can lead to biased alpha estimates and false conclusions about the existence of skill. We introduce a novel three-factor Fama–French asset-pricing model with the aim of estimating alpha more accurately and hence investment skill, without bias. This model excludes SRI-prohibited industries such as defense, alcohol, tobacco and gambling in the construction of the Fama–French market, value and size risk factors. We show that the exclusion of the SRI-prohibited industries leads to subtle and complex changes to the risk factors that drive SRI returns. When we re-estimate alpha using the new model we find, in contrast to the conventional Fama–French model, evidence of statistically and economically significant alpha. Furthermore, the risk loadings on the new risk factors are similar to those of the original Fama–French model suggesting that changes in risk loadings are not responsible for the finding of significant skill.     

Common Risk Factors Versus a Mispricing Factor of Tokyo Stock Exchange Firms: Inquiries into the Fundamental Value Derived from Analyst Earnings Forecasts*

We search for common factors and/or a mispricing factor for Tokyo Stock Exchange firms. We utilize the Edwards–Bell–Ohlson model to compute the firms' fundamental value and divide this value by the firms' market price to construct a new variable called a ‘value‐to‐price ratio’ (VPR). We find that this VPR variable can generate abnormal returns even after adjusting for the risk factors related to portfolio style differences. To find out whether it is indeed a risk factor or simply a characteristic, we construct return difference portfolios of the high VPR stocks minus the low value‐to‐price stocks and call this portfolio the upward‐forecast minus downward‐forecast (UMD) factor. Fama and MacBeth test indicate that the risk premium for this UMD factor is positive. The best model in terms of the adjusted R² value is the four‐factor model in which the UMD factor is added to the Fama and French three factors. GMM Euler condition tests reveal that the UMD factor helps to price assets and that the four‐factor model is not rejected. We conclude the VPR variable contains new information content that is not contained in the conventional Fama and French's three factors.     

Lévy betas: Static hedging with index futures

This study considers calibration to forward‐looking betas by extracting information on equity and index options from prices using Lévy models. The resulting calibrated betas are called Lévy betas. The objective of the proposed approach is to capture market expectations for future betas through option prices, as betas estimated from historical data may fail to reflect structural change in the market. By assuming a continuous‐time capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with Lévy processes, we derive an analytical solution to index and stock options, thus permitting the betas to be implied from observed option prices. One application of Lévy betas is to construct a static hedging strategy using index futures. Employing Hong Kong equity and index option data from September 16, 2008 to October 15, 2009, we show empirically that the Lévy betas during the sub‐prime mortgage crisis period were much more volatile than those during the recovery period. We also find evidence to suggest that the Lévy betas improve static hedging performance relative to historical betas and the forward‐looking betas implied by a stochastic volatility model.     

Risk and Return in the 20th and 21st Centuries

The single most important contemporary issue in finance is the equity risk premium. This drives future equity returns, and is the key determinant of the cost of capital. The risk premium – the expected reward for bearing the risk of investing in equities, rather than in low-risk investments such as bills or bonds – is usually estimated from historical data. This article starts by summarising new evidence on historical returns in twelve major world markets from the authors' recent book, 'The Millennium Book: A Century of Investment Returns'. The authors show that the historical equity risk premium has been lower than previously believed, and argue that the future risk premium is likely to be lower still. They discuss what this implies for the cost of capital, stock market values, and companies' target rates of return. They suggest that many companies are seeking too high a rate of return and thus run the risk of under-investing.     

Does the Fama and French Five‐Factor Model Work Well in Japan?

In this study, we investigate whether the five‐factor model by Fama and French (2015) explains well the pricing structure of stocks with long‐run data for Japan. We conduct standard cross‐section asset pricing tests and examine the additional explanatory power of the new Fama and French factors; robust‐minus‐weak profitability factor and conservative‐minus‐aggressive investment factor. We find that robust‐minus‐weak and the conservative‐minus‐aggressive factors are not statistically significant when we conduct generalized method of moments (GMM) tests with the Hansen–Jagannathan distance measure. Thus, we conclude that the original version of the Fama and French five‐factor model is not the best benchmark pricing model for Japanese data during our sampling period from the year 1978 to the year 2014.     

Are green bonds priced lower than their conventional peers?

The green bond market's rapid growth has alerted issuers and investors to this sustainable area of investment. This study ascertains whether green bonds are priced lower than conventional bonds—whether a negative green bond premium exists in both Chinese and global bond markets—and the driving forces behind any such green bond premium. First, an event study is set up to observe stock market's reaction upon issuance of green bonds to test whether green bonds are embedded with additional value by improving the issuer's equity market performance. Then, using the matching method and a two-layer regression process, the study estimates the green bond premium in the Chinese and global markets, respectively, and analyses factors affecting the green bond premium. The event study reveals that green bond issuance could reduce the issuer's equity return performance. The regression models found no significant negative green bond premium in either Chinese or global markets, indicating that green bonds are not priced significantly lower than conventional bonds. However, global market models show that issuing green bonds in CNY could reduce the green bond premium, unlike in USD or EUR.     

Noisy prices and the Fama–French five-factor asset pricing model in China

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the five-factor model recently presented by Fama and French (2015a) that augments the traditional three-factor model with two new factors related to profitability and investment, taking into account the bias in mean returns induced by noise in prices. Using an extensive sample over the period 1997 to 2015, we find that the five-factor model consistently outperforms the three-factor model in the Chinese equity market. In contrast to the findings in Fama and French (2015a), both value and profitability factors are important, while the investment factor is found to be redundant for describing average returns in our sample. With respect to the double-sorted left-hand-side (LHS) portfolios, the main problem with the five-factor model is its failure to fully capture the high average returns of stocks whose returns perform like those of growth firms that invest conservatively due to low profitability. On the other hand, although we find mixed results in the three-dimensional sorting, the LHS portfolios with extremely low average returns are those that cause serious problems for the five-factor model.     

Cross‐commodity analysis and applications to risk management

The understanding of joint asset return distributions is an important ingredient for managing risks of portfolios. Although this is a well‐discussed issue in fixed income and equity markets, it is a challenge for energy commodities. In this study we are concerned with describing the joint return distribution of energy‐related commodities futures, namely power, oil, gas, coal, and carbon. The objective of the study is threefold. First, we conduct a careful analysis of empirical returns and show how the class of multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions performs in this context. Second, we present how risk measures can be computed for commodity portfolios based on generalized hyperbolic assumptions. And finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for risk management analyzing the exposure of power plants, which represent typical energy portfolios. Our main findings are that risk estimates based on a normal distribution in the context of energy commodities can be statistically improved using generalized hyperbolic distributions. Those distributions are flexible enough to incorporate many characteristics of commodity returns and yield more accurate risk estimates. Our analysis of the market suggests that carbon allowances can be a helpful tool for controlling the risk exposure of a typical energy portfolio representing a power plant. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:197–217, 2009     

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

This paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.     

EQUILIBRIUM ASSET AND OPTION PRICING UNDER JUMP DIFFUSION

This paper develops an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion. The model provides analytical formulas for an equity premium and a more general pricing kernel that links the physical and risk‐neutral densities. The model explains the two empirical phenomena of the negative variance risk premium and implied volatility smirk if market crashes are expected. Model estimation with the S&P 500 index from 1985 to 2005 shows that jump size is indeed negative and the risk aversion coefficient has a reasonable value when taking the jump into account.     

A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF A MULTIFIRM MORAL‐HAZARD ECONOMY WITH FINANCIAL MARKETS

We present a general equilibrium model of a moral‐hazard economy with many firms and financial markets, where stocks and bonds are traded. Contrary to the principal‐agent literature, we argue that optimal contracting in an infinite economy is not about a tradeoff between risk sharing and incentives, but it is all about incentives. Even when the economy is finite, optimal contracts do not depend on principals’ risk aversion, but on market prices of risks. We also show that optimal contracting does not require relative performance evaluation, that the second best risk‐free interest rate is lower than that of the first best, and that the second‐best equity premium can be higher or lower than that of the first best. Moral hazard can contribute to the resolution of the risk‐free rate puzzle. Its potential to explain the equity premium puzzle is examined.     

A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market

Using both sorting and cross-sectional tests, this paper investigates the patterns in the average stock returns related to stock fundamentals, past return performance, idiosyncratic risk, and turnover in the Polish equity market for the period 2002–2011. To examine the persistence of the patterns, we apply the Monotonic Relation test of Patton and Timmermann (2010). The results favour the book-to-market ratio as a determinant of the cross-sectional variation of stock returns while momentum remains insignificant. The Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, which uses local size and value risk premiums adjusted for the skewed size distribution of the sample, captures most of the recognised anomalies. Further, we show that Polish domestic SMB and HML factors are not correlated with their U.S. and German counterparts.     

The price of freedom: A Fama–French freedom factor

Economic institutions in-part explain cross-country variation in levels of investment and capital market characteristics. Here, country-level equity returns are related to cross-country differences in economic institutions as measured by an index of economic freedom. The ex-ante level and ex-post change in economic freedom are observed to be country-level equity return factors exhibiting Sharpe ratios greater than that of the value, momentum, and size factors, factors to which change in economic freedom has a low correlation. Fama–MacBeth regressions confirm the economic freedom factor. Finally, the excess return earned from investing in countries with low economic freedom is the price of freedom.     

新三板市场的股权价值评估

随着我国资本市场的发展,新三板市场已经成为我国多层次资本市场的重要部分,新三板市场主要是面向高成长性的科技型、创新型的非上市企业或者一些退市企业进行股份转让和定向融资的交易平台,对于规模小、融资难、风险高的中小科技型企业具有很重要的意义。由于新三板市场的本身特点决定其股权价值的不确定性,从而对其股权价值的评估就是对于投资者来说的一大难题,本文在讨论传统股权价值评估的基础上针对B-S模型进行论证是最适合新三板市场股权价值评估的方法。