Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition

This paper reviews the political economy of economic growth in post-communist economies making the transition to free markets, focusing on the role of economic policy and institutions. We test the hypothesis that better institutions, measured in terms of economic freedom, contribute to growth. To begin with, the empirical results from the cross-section of transition economies confirm this hypothesis. Yet the question is deeper than that since there is an interactive effect between economic freedom and investment. The paper concludes that non-linearities are present in the growth model.     

Metropolitan growth in transition

The traditional model of urbanization, in which the key assumption is that economic opportunity governs migration, is examined in the light of recent U.S. experience. The author suggests that the traditional theory does not adequately explain either shifts in forces affecting urbanization over time or the current trend of turnaround migration away from urban areas. It is shown that the determinants of migration differ substantially between growing and declining metropolitan areas and among the time periods examined.     

Demographic transition,education and economic growth in Tunisia

This paper provides empirical evidence supporting the interaction between fertility, education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that correlation in accordance with Becker's theory. In consistency with the theory, the key explanatory variables in Tunisia's fertility model are real GDP per capita, infant mortality, contraceptive use ratio, and education. As opposed to most empirical works, the present study takes into consideration three educational levels, i.e., primary, secondary and higher. Also unlike most empirical research, this study attempts to analyse the impact of fertility transition on education and economic growth. To deal with too little or incomplete data, time series data for Tunisia are computed over 45 years. A multivariate cointegration analysis is carried out and shows that a long-term triangular relationship exists. A short dynamic run analysis based on the vector correction error model displays results in coherence with and close to those of the long term. Among our key results, education is found to trigger fertility transition both in the short and long run. In addition, education has relatively fostered economic growth but hardly boosted it through its dynamic interaction with fertility. Furthermore, the variance decomposition and the impulse function show that the fertility transition has produced a feedback effect on both education and economic growth.     

Regional deregulation and entrepreneurial growth in China's transition economy

Despite a less favourable national institutional environment, the private entrepreneurial sector has developed rapidly in China's transition economy. To resolve this puzzle, this study argues that regional deregulation plays a significant role in China's entrepreneurial growth because it stimulates free markets and lifts predatory and discriminatory regulatory policies affecting entrepreneurship. I use provincial-level panel data (1998–2003) for hypothesis testing. The results, based on fixed effects estimation, suggest that deregulation indeed has a significantly positive effect on entrepreneurial growth within regions. In addition, this effect is found to be stronger in earlier years, as well as among less developed, inland regions.     

Economic growth and environmental impact: evaluating alternatives

The environment is no longer to be considered a free good, whether it is utilized for economic growth or is affected by it.This is an exploratory paper attempting to depict a conceptual framework for policy planning embodying growth, environmental and societal variables. The aim is to identify a comprehensive framework and suggest an operationally feasible set of methodologies and processes. In view of the limitations of the current theoretical andmethodological framework, the suggested heuristic approach is an attempt to develop and specify a realistic and convenient process for operational purposes. Moreover, any future developments in theory, methodology, measurement and information is considered to be complementary to, rather than competing with, the proposed framework. The contention is that while the on-going research undertakings are expected to improve the theoretical and methodological framework of the existing body of doctrine, there appears to be a need for a systematic operational framework for policy planning keeping in prospects realism, reasonableness andcertain balances. Sufficient flexibility should be maintained to adjust the particular aspects of the system in light of new information and experience.In summary, the issues of growth and the resultant environmental and societal implications are expounded upon and a conceptual framework is suggested for the process of national priority setting.The desirability of continued growth for the developed and developing countries is predicated upon the premise that environmental and societal variables are to be explicitly embodied in the allocation process so that the composition, structure and the rates of economics growth are compatible with the quality of life (Q/L).     

Theory of social transformation,political transition and economic growth

In this paper, I develop a model of sociopolitical transition that links the sociopolitical transformational process of countries to the dynamic process of output per capita and economic growth. Social polarization breeds discriminatory practices regarding government redistribution. This brings about inefficient allocation of resources away from production to political power struggle, leading to poor economic outcomes. However, the model shows that social integrative processes may correct this inefficiency over time depending on the degree of social fractionalization, the level of social distance between the groups, the level of production technology, etc. Even though the model predicts long-run convergence of growth rates and output per capita across countries, it shows possible prolonged divergence of these economic variables.     

Demographic transition and economic growth in China,India and Pakistan

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow–Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961–2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961–2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005–2050, and a negative effect in China.     

Optimal growth models as Economic Planning Tools

Conclusion In the present paper, I have carried out an investigation into the form of models which would be suitable for economy-wide planning. Optimal growth models have usually been constructed in an abstract framework. Therefore, the economies for which optimal growth models would be suitable are not identified. I have shown that, because these models only embody purely physical constraints, they will, in general, only be suitable for totally controlled economies. The conclusion, establishing the general inapplicability of optimal growth models to non-controlled economies, is dependent on the view of economic planning which regards the economic structure, particularly the scope of government policy, as fixed prior to plan construction.The second half of the paper elucidates the nature of the planning process when planners take into account the economic structure of the economy which they are planning. I have deliberately chosen to show the planning process in an abstract context for a simple economy, because the object is not to describe how to plan a particular type of economy, but to describe a methodology of planning. In that methodology, there is a place for optimal growth methods but only after the planners have given utmost consideration to the particular features of the economy they are planning. In using that methodology, one finds that problems must be confronted which are hidden when optimal growth models are formulated in the usual manner. Thus, planning for an infinite horizon may be the planners' preferred method on some basic philosophical grounds but in fact in order to construct an implementable plan they may need to follow the uncontrolled sector and adopt a pragmatic finite horizon approach.This paper is a revised version of a chapter of my Ph.D. thesis at the University of Pennsylvania. I would like to thank my adviser, Don Green, for many helpful comments.     

Economic growth and inequality: The role of public investment

The relationship between growth and inequality is complex. After discussing some general background issues, motivated by extensive empirical evidence this paper focuses on public investment as a key determinant of the relationship. Two alternative frameworks, each offering sharply contrasting perspectives, are presented. The first employs the “representative consumer theory of distribution” where agent heterogeneity originates with wealth endowments. It yields an equilibrium in which aggregate dynamics drives distributional dynamics. In the second, agent heterogeneity arises from idiosyncratic productivity shocks and generates an equilibrium in which distributional dynamics drive growth. The impact of government investment on growth and inequality are shown to contrast sharply in the two approaches, thus illustrating the complexity of the growth-inequality relationship.     

Economic growth and the development of educational facilities—II

The present study provides several simple mathematical expressions which interrelate many of the more important factors associated with the planning of growth of educational facilities. The factors considered include rate of economic development, attrition in graduates available to the labor market due to dropouts, continuation of education, and those'entering the teaching profession. The rate of growth is discussed in terms of the use of teaching devices, on the job training, and the availability of supporting facilities. A linear and exponential phase of growth is recognized.     

2003年第一季度经济增长及原因

2003年是十六大后的第一年。在2002年我国经济增长8.1%好成绩的基础上，第一季度完成GDP总量23561亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年同期增长9.9%，比上第第四季度增长率高出1.8个百分点，创1996年以来一季度增长的新高。开局良好，令人高兴。     

Economic growth—meritorious or meretricious: A review of social limits to growth

The recent literature on economic growth has seen a reemergence of the questioning of the value of economic growth. Prominent among this new literature is a set of contributions which seek to evaluate the social implications of the pattern of economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to review an important component of this literature—Hirsch's recent book Social Limits to Growth. The central arguments of Hirsch's analysis are evaluated from a general perspective and compared to the balance of the literature. All of the recent additions in this area seem to question the role of markets and values derived based on consumer sovereignty to establish the end results of economic activity and to evaluate the alternative possible resource allocations to obtain them.     

Economic structure and change in the Balkan region: implications for integration,transition and economic cooperation

The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of the economic performance, economic structure and trade relations of the Balkan countries, in order to detect basic trends and developments in the region. On the basis of this analysis, the article evaluates alternative scenarios regarding the prospects of the region in the evolving pan‐European economic order and discusses policy responses to the pressures generated by the interaction of the integration and transition processes in South‐eastern Europe. Le but de cet article est de fournir une analyse comparative compréhensive de la performance et de la structure économiques et des relations commerciales des États balkaniques afin de détecter les tendances et les d? veloppements fondamentaux dans la région. Sur la base de cette analyse, cet article évalue différents scénarios pour l’avenir de la région dans l’ordre économique paneuropéen qui se développe lentement, et discute des réponses politiques aux pressions engendrées par l’action mutuelle des processus d’intégration et de transition en Europe du sud‐est.     

Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country.     

Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition

We argue that econometric analyses of post-communist countries are vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated for 25 countries over 18 years. The method we use allows identification of structural breaks at a priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least three times, yielding four different models of growth. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.     

Job creation,job destruction and employment growth in transition countries in the 90s

We analyze job flows in five transition countries: Poland, Estonia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Romania. Using comparable firm level data over the years 1993–1997, we find that in early transition job destruction dominates job creation, while the latter is picking over time; most job reallocation occurs within, rather than across sectors; ownership and firm size are the most relevant characteristics for understanding the dynamics of job flows. We investigate job creation and destruction at the firm level by estimating a firm growth equation. Our results indicate patterns of gross job flows and firm growth remarkably similar to those in market-based economies.     

Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa

This paper uses variations in international commodity prices and rainfall to construct instrumental variables estimates of the within-country effect that changes in the size of the agricultural sector and GDP per capita growth have on the urbanization rate. For a panel of 41 African countries during the period 1960-2007, the paper’s three main findings are that: (i) decreases in the share of agricultural value added lead to a significant increase in the urbanization rate; (ii) conditional on changes in the share of agricultural value added GDP per capita growth does not significantly affect the urbanization rate; (iii) increases in the urbanization rate had a significant negative average effect on GDP per capita growth.