Employment and effective employment in the Russian economy

This article deals with the problems of measuring and forecasting employment and labor productivity in the Russian economy. A necessity of forming employment calculation indices, which would to a greater degree reflect the real labor costs by industry for 1991–2010, is discovered. A method of calculating alternative (conditional effective) employment is offered.     

Russian enterprises in early 2006: The investment situation

The paper analyzes and comments on the results of a regular poll of real-sector enterprises, conducted by the Laboratory for Analysis and Forecasting of Microeconomic Processes, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS.     

新经济形势下我国经济法的任务探析

我国经济在经历高速发展过程中,出现了许多问题和弊病,这些问题主要集中在体制、经济模式、经济安全问题几个方面,而欲建立良好的经济环境以提高全民生活水平、增强国际竞争力,经济法堪承此任。新的经济形势下,经济法之任务体现为:更多的用法律来规范政府政策的出台,用法律思想推动体制改革的深化;改变政府投资、管理为主的经济模式;我国仍需进一步完善已初步构建的社会主义市场经济法律体系,用法律来保障我们的经济安全。     

Macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian economy in the long term

The article presents the main provisions of the macroeconomic section of the regular long term forecasts of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, prepared in 2012. The key idea of the forecast is based on an assessment of the growth potential of the Russian economy. It is necessary for the definition of an economic policy aimed at achieving this potential result in the perspective until 2030.     

ICT investment and internationalization of the Russian economy

In this paper the influence of ICT investments on the international activities of Russia is analyzed. Firstly, ICT investments are considered as a factor of the international competitiveness of the Russian economy (in comparison with some other countries). Dynamics of both export volumes and openness of national economies are used as the main criteria for comparison. Then, the role of ICT in the development of international activities on the regional level is analysed. Cluster analysis is performed for the set of data on the Russian regions. Finally, the accession of Russia to the WTO is considered in the context of the development of the ICT sector and the international activities of the Russian economy.     

The crisis in the context of the present and the future of the Russian economy

This paper investigates the decline in imports of most important types of investment and consumer goods in 2012–2015 and the changes in the geography of imports, which affect the innovation potential of investments. The impact of these changes on the current standard of living of the population and the future modernization of the economy has been shown. The quantitative assessment of the impact of sanctions has been provided. Directions of competitive import substitution have been formulated.     

On the role of the fuel-and-energy complex in the Russian economy

The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.     

中俄经贸合作对策研究

2004年中俄贸易额突破了200亿美元的大关,这意味着中俄两国的经济贸易合作进入了一个新的历史阶段,驶入了加速发展的快车道.在这种新的形势下,我们应该抓住机遇,积极利用原有的基础,并创造各种有利条件,选择合理的途径,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场,继续为扩大中俄经贸合作的规模、深化经贸合作水平而努力.     

Labor shortage in the Russian economy: A macroeconomic estimate

The problem of future labor shortage under the demographic crisis in Russia is posed and considered. Its quantitative estimation for the all-Russia labor market is made, and the results are compared with regard to different scenarios of socioeconomic development. The scale of the future labor shortage in aggregative regional (federal districts) and sectoral labor markets is estimated. Qualitative characteristics of the main aftereffects of the onset of labor shortage and ways of mitigating it are discussed.     

The analysis of the dynamics of the Russian economy using the output gap indicator

In this paper we estimate the indicator output gap for the Russian economy in 2000–2015 using univariate and multivariate versions of the Hodrick–Prescott filter and the Kalman filter for the model of unobserved components (taking into account the Phillips curve). The calculation results show a slowdown of potential output after 2014.     

Socio-demographic risks of the long-term development of the Russian economy

Key risks and threats of the long-term development of the Russian economy, originating from the social sphere, are revealed and analyzed. The article focuses on human capital development and replenishment problems, as well as on the social effects of these problems on education, health conditions, labor migration, and pension provision.     

The Russian economy resource sector: Its scale and interindustry interactions

Problems and consequences of resource specialization are considered. The size of the resource sector and its contribution to the main indicators of the Russian economy under economic growth are assessed. Interindustry links of resource industries, the formation and distribution of their revenues, and the tax load on the resource sector are analyzed using input-output tables.     

经济衰退时期的美国劳动者

美国进入新一轮经济衰退期,美国的普通劳动者正在面临心理和现实生活的双重压力,他们对未来充满了担忧,而这将直接影响到美国的大选     

The Mexican economy: Present situation,perspectives and alternatives

The paper begins by sketching the build up to the recent crisis of the Mexican economy. Then it examines the strategic alternatives which are open in the future. The author points out that the present situation is ‘fluid’ and that two extremely different strategic options are shaping up: one which could be called nationalist and with a populist orientation; and the other which would prefer simply to reformulate the previous model of growth. Finally, the short-term economic perspectives are analysed and some factors will be considered which may well be included in an economic strategy of a nationalist and populist orientation.     

广东省经济增长过程中的就业状况分析

文章分析了广东省经济增长过程中就业增长六个方面的特征,结果发现:广东省就业人数增长率变化轨迹与经济增长变化轨迹基本一致;广东省就业弹性27年来先下降后提升,普遍高于全国平均水平;就业结构与产业结构偏离度依然偏高;制造业和新兴服务业是安置就业大军的主战场;民营经济等非公有制经济成为就业安置的主渠道;珠三角地区仍聚集了过半就业人员;就业人员文化素质稳步提高。     

Innovation-technological development of the Russian economy: Prospects and conditions

The present state of the innovation-technological potential of Russia and the feasibility of its use for modernizing the national economy are discussed. Alternative strategies of technological development of the economy are validated, the merits of a starting resource-innovation strategy are described, and the stages of its transformation into an innovation-technological strategy are proposed. Problem situations are identified, possible solutions are proposed, and conditions for changeover to an innovation-technological strategy of Russia’s economic development are formed.     

Forecasting recruitment needs of the Russian economy: Qualitative aspects

The article presents a new mechanism for translating labor market’s needs to the vocational education system that promotes the provision of long-term personnel requirements within the framework of the implementation of competence-based educational programs.     

Foreign trade in the structure of the current model of the Russian economy

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state of foreign trade and its role in the present model of Russia’s economic development. The basic directions, in which the world market situation affects the Russian economy, are defined.     

Medium-term forecasting of Russian economy using cognitive model

The paper has substantiated the applicability of a cognitive approach to studying and forecasting a resource-dependent economy. The results of the modeling of a medium-term forecast for the Russian economy using a fuzzy cognitive map have been laid out.     

Inflation and problems of balanced development of the Russian economy

Problems of inflation from the perspective of balanced economic development of the Russian Federation are considered. The consequences of policy decisions taken in the financial sector and real economy are analyzed based on actual data. The necessity of carrying out such an analysis at the stage of developing policy decisions is rationalized.