Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.     

Cosmology and economics

Abstract

Economics has become the political magic of the twentieth century, and contention over economic policy is the political lifeblood of the modern state. The glare of publicity highlights the equilibrism of economic policy, leaving in the shade diplomacy and statecraft of former days. There is a consensus in modern society and in the modern state that political debate and economic discussion are two sides of the same coin, and that “economics”, like a second law of nature, sets the limits of the political options. Economic reform, economic adjustment, economic “rescue plans” and so on are synonyms for political strategies. Politics is the management of the “economy”, and at the same time “economics” is the authority to which all appeal as the “necessity”, as the authority that governs and legitimises policy.     

French experience of public-private sector cooperation in high technologies

Mechanisms of public—private cooperation in science-and-technology modernization are discussed. This cooperation is manifested in the financing by the state of major high-tech projects, aimed at modernizing the economy and sustaining the economic growth, as well as of small-scale and medium innovational enterprises. In 2005, France decided to diversify its innovational mechanisms in response to the report “Toward a New Industrial Policy” by Jean-Louis Beffa, president and CEO of Saint-Gobain. Specialized finance institutions have been founded and 66 “poles de compétitivité” (“competitiveness clusters”) assigned, six of which are to implement global-scale projects. France’s experience of public-private cooperation for innovation can be useful for Russia too.     

China＇s Economy in 2006/2007： Managing High Growth for Faster Structural Adjustment

China's economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of 10.5 to 10.7 percent with low inflation (CPI at 1.3 percent),dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO,China has become a significant global economic player,and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power (jingji daguo). China's economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China's domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China's growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent,the national mood now is one of "more balanced" growth rather than "fast growth". Therefore,the building of a "harmonious society" is to be emphasized in China,while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007,the government will also need to deal with various internal and external macroeconomic imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue,given China's record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.     

How much slack was there in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform of 1978?

The existence of economic slack or inefficiency is a common phenomenon of economies that operate under mandatory central planning. It implies that the economy operates in the interior of its set of production possibilities and not on its frontier. It also implies that output can be increased without any increase in the inputs if the constraints which prevent the economy from operating on the frontier in the first place are removed. Thus, there is “surplus potential output” that is not directly observable and cannot be identified by conventional analysis of the relationship between inputs and output alone. The objective of this study is to attempt to identify and estimate the surplus potential output in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform in 1978. This will help answer the question of how much of the Chinese economic growth since 1978 can be attributed to the reduction and elimination of the pre-existing economic slack. This question is important because the increase in output due to the reduction or elimination of the economic slack can only take effect once and cannot be continuing. It will also affect the attribution of the sources of Chinese economic growth. Our investigation suggests that a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of the surplus potential output of the Chinese economy on the eve of its reform is approximately 50% of the actual realized output in 1978.     

China＇s Economy in 2005： At a New Turning Point and Need to Fix Its Development Problems

I. High Growth, Higher Stakes China’s economy in 2005 experienced another year of surging growth, with its total GDP(based on recent revision) expanding at 9.9 percent to reach 18.23 tn yuan (US$2.26 tn).1 Growth in 2005 was slightly lower than the 10.1 percent in 2004; but it was nonetheless very high. Sustained high growth is accompanied by potential high risks, and it inevitably raises the issue of future sustainability of high growth. Although the Chinese economic policy-makers in 200…     

新经济增长理论对我国技术进步的启示

新经济增长理论认为经济增长的源泉是内生技术进步,从长期看,政府可以通过促进技术进步,提高经济的长期增长率。目前我国正处于增长转型时期,技术进步对我国经济持续增长的意义不言而喻。本文从罗默“知识驱动”模型出发,分析我国实现技术进步的途径,为我国经济增长途径找到制度应用的理论依据。     

China's Economic Transition Syndrome

Following 30 years of high economic growth, China's economy is in the midst of a classic transition from an industrial to a post‐industrial economy. In this transition period, the mismatch between supply and demand is growing, while the country's economic growth engine is weakening. Stimulus policies have aimed to maintain the country's economic growth momentum but they have come at the price of sharply increased financial fragility and resource misallocation, both of which are harmful to economic growth. China's “economic transition syndrome” refers to the vicious cycle of slowing GDP growth, combined with increasing demand for stimulus policies, and increasing financial fragility and resource misallocation.     

The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model

Abstract

Prior to the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean economy had based its growth policies on East Asia's economic catch-up model which was based mainly on the Japanese development experience. However, the events that lead to the 1997 crisis and the changes instituted in the Korean economy after the crisis have put to question whether the traditional East Asian growth model will continue to be viable. This paper examines two alternative models of development, namely the “Anglo-Saxon” and the “Continental European” models, and evaluates their relevance for Korea's future development challenges. Despite many common features these models share, they are also quite distinctive with regard to their treatment of the labor market system and the role of government. By focusing on the model's capacity to expand employment and to provide sustainable growth as the most important criteria, it is suggested that Korea should follow the “Anglo-Saxon model”, at least in the short- to medium-term. In comparing Korea's economy with other advanced economies when they were at the similar stage of development, it is found that Korea's growth potential lags behind that of countries such as Japan, Germany, Finland, and Ireland. The efficiency of Korea's investment is found to be only slightly better than Japan while it is inferior to all other advanced economies. Despite these challenges, Korea is apparently moving toward the “Continental European model”, with the Korean government increasing its own size and plans for further expenditures on social security and welfare. However, in order to ensure sustainable development with significant job creation, this paper argues that Korea should switch its direction and adopt the “Anglo-Saxon model” as soon as possible.     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

Looking inward for transformative growth

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China's economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world improved terms of trade in both product and financial markets, in the form of cheaper light manufactures and cheaper credit. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward-sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available “inward” sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. The potential for further “transformative” growth is shown to be considerable though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the politically difficult extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services.     

What should the inflation rate be? (On the importance of a long-standing discussion for defining today’s development strategy for Russia)

This article sets out to demonstrate that every economy at a specific time has its inherent, quite definite, rate of inflation. Inflation rates may vary widely depending on economic situation and should be estimated in a dynamic perspective. They include a component associated with the degree of transformation of production facilities, which determines the “normal” rate of inflation. Another component, reflecting the influence of extra investment, which may prove necessary to compensate for the previous period of decapitalization of the Russian economy, varies through the investment cycle. This makes it possible to forecast inflation fluctuations around the “normal” rate; their recognition should be the basis for establishing a socially and politically acceptable rate of inflation within a particular development strategy.     

Credibility and Reputation Building in the Developmental State: A Model with East Asian Applications

We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the role of credibility, reputation and investment coordination in a developmental state. Our model focuses on why a “soft” state serving narrow social groups so often obtains in less-developed countries and under what conditions a “hard” or developmental state can emerge. The model highlights the dilemma that although state and private sector alike may want economic growth, both must simultaneously invest to achieve it. But the equilibrium outcome—analogous to the prisoner's dilemma—is investment by neither. Even when initial conditions are favorable and a state is potentially developmental with the genuine capability to elicit private sector investment, this may not materialize and an equilibrium of low, or no, investment will prevail. To avoid this deadlock and foster growth, the successful developmental state must demonstrate commitment by promoting its “developmental” credentials through a process of reputation building. A consequent incentive to act “tough” together with seeming advantages of authoritarianism in implementing the developmental state may help to explain why it is often associated with an authoritarian political system.     

From a crisis of financing mechanisms to sustainable economic growth

The article examines the main factors that shaped the negative macroeconomic trends in the Russian economy in 2013–2016. The author estimates the current potential of long-term economic growth and changes compared to the situation after the crisis of 2008–2009. Requirements for a promising model of funding economic growth are formed.     

中国省域二氧化碳排放达峰情景预测及实现路径研究

中国政府提出的2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和的承诺对推动经济社会绿色转型和系统性深刻变革具有重要意义。测算了中国各省2005-2019年脱钩系数,分析了经济增长与碳排放脱钩状态。在测算碳排放强度的基础上,对不同经济增长模式下的碳排放量进行了情景预测。结果表明:中部和西部地区部分经济欠发达省份经济增长和碳排放脱钩状态为扩张性负脱钩,其余地区处于强脱钩或弱脱钩状态。不同经济增长模式下,碳达峰年份有差异。考虑到中国社会经济实际状况,最可能情形为混合式增长模式下大部分省份于2026年左右实现碳达峰。最后,从碳交易市场体系、能源体系、技术创新、生活流通、法律法规等方面给出了碳达峰的实现路径。     

市场化、南北差距及其根源——基于作物性质的政治经济学考察

中国经济发展的区域差异及其根源，一直备受学界关注。其中，市场化发育的区域差异是解释经济发展差距的重要线索。然而，市场发育区域差异的生成根源却未能得到恰当的处理与阐释。文章试图从作物性质的政治经济学维度，构建"政府管制-作物性质-逃避策略"的逻辑框架，探讨区域经济发展差距背后市场发育的决定机理。文章认为，如果将市场化进程视为政府管制放松的过程，那么管制放松就可以区分为主动管制放松与被动管制放松。由可实施逃避策略所决定的被动管制放松及其所触发的市场化进程往往具有不可逆性。由此，逃避策略选择的区域差异性，将导致区域市场化发育程度的不同进而带来经济增长的差异。基于全国1997-2016年面板数据的实证分析表明：由"无政府主义"的作物种植所表达的管制逃避策略，能够显著促进市场化的发育程度；作物种植差异及其所蕴含的种植文化特性，共同决定了南北市场化差异；源于2013年全面开展的农地确权，进一步强化"南强北弱"的管制逃避，导致南北经济差异不断扩大。本研究有助于为中国区域经济增长差异提供新的洞见，从而为缓解不平衡不充分发展问题并推进中国区域经济的协调发展提供政策依据。     

AFTER MUGABE GOES – THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF ZIMBABWE

This Presidential address briefly outlines the developments in Zimbabwe since independence in 1980 leading up to the current political and economic crisis. The Zimbabwean situation is assessed within the conceptual framework of patrimonialism and predatory states. The origins of the Zimbabwean crisis are then analysed in their economic and political context leading to an eventual “fragile” or “failed” state. Evaluation of the crisis suggests that institutional damage has proceeded to the point at which only large scale economic and political reconstruction offers sustainable long term solutions, irrespective of when President Mugabe leaves office. The address concludes with an examination of the regional implications for Southern African Development Community – as well as the role of the global community – and outlines some of the core components of any reconstruction process‐to‐be in Zimbabwe.     

What Caused the Sharp Downturn in the Chinese Economy during the Global Financial Crisis？ A Critical Note on Causality in Trade Linkage

In responding to a view that attributes sharp downturns in the Chinese economy in late 2008 and early 2009 to the ＂collapse of external demand,＂ the present paper scrutinizes three relevant issues： How have large Chinese importers behaved in a demand-price setting？ How have Chinese commodity imports and exports interacted in recent years？ Did the downturns in China＇s export growth come earlier and were they deeper than those in Chinese import growth？ All answers appear to suggest a conclusion contrary to the abovementioned view： sharp downturns in China＇s trade and economy during the reeent global financial crisis were, to a large extent, caused by certain domestic factors, or by factors that should not be regarded as entirely ＂external. ＂ Insomuch as globalization has advanced, a large economy like China＇s today faces new potential sources of macroeeonomic disturbances, from inside and outside.