Vertical Integration,Organizational Governance,and Firm Performance: Evidence from Italian Business Groups

Assuming transaction cost economics as a normative tool, we investigate the relationship between firms' ‘observed’ vertical integration choices and their economic performance. We use a two‐stage methodology: in the first, a measure of governance misalignment is computed as a difference between the governance form (i.e., ownership or outsourcing) predicted by transaction cost economics and the form actually observed; the second stage consists of estimating a performance equation where the misalignment variable is introduced together with a set of independent variables. Compared with previous studies, we introduce two novelties: we use the business group as the unit of analysis to detect the ownership of vertically related productions; we assess the moderating role of geographic agglomeration in reducing the need of vertical integration. Our results confirm the importance of technology and price uncertainty in influencing vertical integration; moreover, the misalignment variable is significant in the case of profitability, but not in the case of growth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using managers' expectations for ex-ante policy evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can help evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). We evaluate the accuracy of managers' expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers' expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice because of the pessimism on survival. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers' expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.     

Forecasting Earnings Using Geographical Segment Data: Some UK Evidence

This study examines the question of whether or not the geographical segment data disclosed by UK companies can be used to generate forecasts of earnings that outperform forecasts based upon past consolidated data. One year ahead forecasts of attributable earnings or net income before extraordinary items are generated for both geographical sales data combined with a consolidated attributable earnings to sales margin and segmental earnings data. The forecasts are based upon forecasts of changes in the GNP of individual countries, both with and without the addition of forecasted inflation rates. It is found that models based upon both geographical segment sales and segment earnings outperform the random walk and random walk plus drift consolidated models for the years 1981 to 1983. The difference in the sizes of the errors generated by the segment data based models and the consolidated data based models are significant in the majority of cases especially when the errors are truncated at 100%. However, there is no additional advantage in terms of forecast accuracy in using segment earnings data rather than segment sales data.     

Unit Root Testing Using Covariates: Some Theory and Evidence

This paper analyzes the conditions under which power gains can be achieved using the Covariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (CADF) rather than the conventional Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and argues that this method has the advantage, relative to univariate unit root tests, of increasing power without suffering from the large size distortions affecting the latter. The inclusion of covariates affects unit root testing by: (a) reducing the standard error of the estimate of the autoregressive parameter without affecting the estimate itself, and/or (b) reducing both the standard error and the absolute value of the estimate itself. Conditions in terms of contemporaneous correlation and Granger causality are derived for case (a) or (b) to arise. As an illustration, it is shown that applying the more powerful CADF (rather than the ADF) test reverses the finding of a unit root for many US macroeconomic series.     

Failure Prediction: Evidence from Korea

This study is an attempt to construct and test a distress classification model for Korean companies. Utilizing a sample of 34 distressed firms from the recent 1990-1993 period and a matched (by industry and year) sample of non-failed firms, we observe the classification accuracy of two models. Both models utilize measures of firm size, asset turnover, solvency and leverage with one model available for testing only on publicly traded companies and one model applicable to all public and private entities. We observe excellent classification accuracy based on data from the first two years prior to distress. And, although the accuracy drops off after t -2, the models still provide effective early warnings of distress in many cases. The results of this study are of particular relevance in the current financial market scenario of increased deregulation and greater individual financial institution decision making. It is somewhat ironic for us to be proposing the use of a financial distress early-warning model given the current robust economic growth and low bankruptcy rate in Korea. But, the financial problems in Japan are a sobering reminder that high growth can be followed by financial excesses, increased business failures and large loan losses.     

Spillovers from universities: Evidence from the land-grant program

This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of universities on geographic clustering of economic activity, labor market composition and local productivity and presents evidence of local spillovers from universities. I treat the designation of land-grant universities in the 1860s as a natural experiment after controlling for the confounding factors with a combination of synthetic control methods and event-study analyses. Three key results are obtained. First, the designation increased local population density by 6 percent within 10 years and 45 percent in 80 years. Second, the designation did not change the relative size of local manufacturing sector. Third, the designation enhanced local manufacturing output per worker by $2136 (1840 dollars; 57 percent) in 80 years while the short-run effects were negligible. This positive effect on the productivity in non-education sectors suggests the existence of local spillovers from universities. Over an 80-year horizon, my results indicate that the increase in manufacturing productivity reflects both the impact of direct spillovers from universities and general agglomeration economies that arise from the increase in population.     

Estimating Technological Change Using a Stochastic Frontier Production Function Framework: Evidence from U.S. Firm-Level Data

This paper presents a methodology for estimating an index of technological change using firm-level data in a stochastic frontier production function model that takes into account time-varying technical inefficiency. In contrast to the Solow divisia index approach, econometric estimation of the index with panel data allows the researcher to separate technical progress from the stochastic measurement error. Applying the econometric methodology to a panel of 908 publicly-traded U.S. firms from the COMPUSTAT database, we find evidence of a significant downturn in general technological change for the period, 1970– 1989, whereas the divisia index methodology applied to the same data shows stagnation. When the sample is divided into Manufacturing, Services, and Miscellaneous categories we find that estimates of technological change for the three groups display markedly different stochastic behavior and that the Services group is the source of the downturn.     

Do Unions Affect Labor's Share of Income: Evidence Using Panel Data

There have been a number of studies analyzing the impact of unions on labor's share of income. Most have relied on either time series or cross‐section data. The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of unions on labor's share of income in the U.S. This study adds to the understanding of this topic by developing an analytical model of imperfect competition and estimating the model using panel data for the manufacturing sector. This study finds that unions have a positive impact on labor's share of income. Specifically, this paper finds that labor's share declined 17.9 percent between 1997 and 2006 whereas, if unionization density had remained at its 1997 level, labor's share would have declined only 13.9 percent. Thus, the decline in unionization explains about 29 percent of the decline in labor's share of income. This paper is important for three reasons. First, this paper sheds light on whether social and institutional forces play an important role in determining the distribution of income between labor and capital. Second, it helps to explain recent increases in wage inequality. Third, it has implications for understanding the potential impact of legislation, such as the Employee Free Choice Act, that would make it easier for workers in the U.S. to unionize.     

Intermittent Price Changes in Production Plants: Empirical Evidence Using Monthly Data

The price‐setting behaviour of manufacturing plants is examined using a large panel of monthly surveyed plant‐ and product‐specific prices. The sample shows a high frequency of zero changes, relatively small price changes and a strong seasonal price‐change pattern. The intermittent feature of price changes is modelled with thresholds which are smaller in January, and a quadratic loss function associated with the distance from the target price. The findings show statistically significant pricing thresholds, which are only two‐thirds in January, and partial adjustment parameters implying that 60% of the deviation between the target price and the current price is closed each month.     

分权还是集权?——中国企业授权与激励现状调查

分权和集权两种管理模式的选择一直是企业管理的难题。近年来,分权管理模式受到理论界更多的重视,但是在中国实践的情况如何尚不清楚。文章通过调查问卷,试图探讨中国企业授权管理的现状及其差异来源,特别是与激励制度的关系。调查发现,企业人事权、经营管理权授权的程度与地区、产权结构有关,企业的激励制度主要还是作为授权的补偿而不是成本考虑的。     

Herding in Open-end Funds: Evidence from China

This paper aims to detect the herding of Chinese open-end fund managers and examine the role that structural features of their industry play in their herding. The herding behaviour is investigated by employing the cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) model, drawing on the Chinese open-end fund market for the 2007–2020 period. Our findings suggest that the presence of herding has been confirmed in all other types of funds except for income funds, with their herding being mainly driven by non-fundamental factors. Most types of funds show more pronounced herding when the market is rising and the fund flow is positive. Up markets foster positive fund flows, which promote herding to a certain extent. The structural characteristics of fund networks of common asset holdings produce an impact on the fund herding. Herding is observed in the network with larger centrality index and the disassortative network. Moreover, we also find that herding in most types of funds is more pronounced under conditions of high volatility and high economic policy uncertainty, and the fund herding tends to grow inversely with fund-size.     

Fiscal Federalism in Transition: Evidence from Ukraine

Effects of fiscal federalism on redistribution and economic growth are analyzed for Ukraine, a country with large regional differences. Since there is virtually no such empirical literature, except a study of the German case, and since there are several potential flaws, the results must be interpreted in a very tentative way. We find that this relatively poor, disorganized country with little democracy has effectively redistributed income from relatively wealthy to relatively poor regions and thus promoted regional economic convergence, and even dampened the recession in both types of regions. We also find that the evidence does not reject the view that relatively poor regions used the transfers in a growth-conducive fashion, and the paper argues that the findings may have implications beyond the case of Ukraine. But the analysis is tricky, uncertain, and merely a small step to an interesting research issue.     

Specialization and Success: Evidence from Venture Capital

This paper examines how organizational structure affects behavior and outcomes, studying the performance of different types of venture capital organizations. We find a strong positive relationship between the degree of specialization by individual venture capitalists at a firm and its success. When the individual investment professionals are highly specialized themselves, the marginal effect of increasing overall firm specialization is much weaker. The poorer performance by generalists appears to be due to both an inefficient allocation of funding across industries and poor selection of investments within industries. Venture capital organizations with more experience tend to outperform those with less experience.     

Discrimination in rental markets: Evidence from Norway

This paper examines discrimination in the rental housing market. We analyze a rich data set on rental contracts from Norway. We find that tenants born abroad pay a statistically significant and economically important premium for their dwelling units after controlling for a comprehensive set of apartment, individual and contract specific covariates. Moreover, we find that the premium is largest for tenants of African origin. Finally, Norwegians whose parents were born abroad also face a statistically significant and economically important rental premium that is directly comparable to the premium paid by tenants born abroad.     

Parametric Value-at-Risk analysis: Evidence from stock indices

We evaluate the performance of several volatility models in estimating one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of seven stock market indices using a number of distributional assumptions. Because all returns series exhibit volatility clustering and long range memory, we examine GARCH-type models including fractionary integrated models under normal, Student-t and skewed Student-t distributions. Consistent with the idea that the accuracy of VaR estimates is sensitive to the adequacy of the volatility model used, we find that AR (1)-FIAPARCH (1,d,1) model, under a skewed Student-t distribution, outperforms all the models that we have considered including widely used ones such as GARCH (1,1) or HYGARCH (1,d,1). The superior performance of the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model holds for all stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions. Our findings can be explained by the fact that the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model can jointly accounts for the salient features of financial time series: fat tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering and long memory. In the same vein, because it fails to account for most of these stylized facts, the RiskMetrics model provides the least accurate VaR estimation. Our results corroborate the calls for the use of more realistic assumptions in financial modeling.     

Risk-shifting: Evidence from the 2007 credit crisis

I find empirical evidence that financially distressed firms increase investment risk. I exploit a natural experiment where the treated firms must refinance long-term debt during the 2007–2008 credit crisis. When focusing on firms where the incentive to risk-shift is theoretically greater, such as financially vulnerable firms and those with better governance, I find the increase in investment risk is most prevalent among firms that are the most financially vulnerable and when executives benefit from increased risk. Contrary to previous empirical papers that did not find causal evidence of risk-shifting, these results suggest that the risk-shifting does occur when firms are financially distressed.     

外包与劳动生产率提升——基于中国工业行业数据的再检验

本文利用投入产出表中的完全消耗系数和基本流量表,突破FH指数的相同比例假定,利用1997年、2002年和2007年投入产出表计算DJ指数衡量的中国33个工业行业材料外包、服务外包和狭义材料外包水平,并运用面板数据模型检验了外包对劳动生产率整体及行业的影响。主要结论表明,材料外包和服务外包总体上提升了中国工业行业的劳动生产率,其中服务外包的促进作用更强。     

Housing tenure choice: Evidence from time series

A model of tenure choice is specified and estimated. A simple expression to represent the expected rate of return on equity for a homeowner is developed. Also the influence of the federal housing subsidy programs is analyzed. Both, plus permanent income and the implicit rental price of owner-occupied housing, are important determinants of tenure choice. Other influences are the financing gap with the standard mortgage instrument in an inflationary environment, the number of children less than 18 per family, assets and liabilities, and mortgage credit terms. Finally, the changes in housing tenure choice over the estimation period are analyzed.