Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Two-phase Integrated Decision Approach for Large Nominal Groups

When decision makers who comprise a large nominal group face an unstructured decision problem and no simultaneous interactive communications are available, problem identification and consensus building are difficult, if not impossible. Few tools are available to assist decision makers in this situation. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has typically been used to evaluate a set of alternatives after a decision problem has been structured as a hierarchy with various levels of criteria above the alternatives. With a group of decision makers, AHP has been used to evaluate those alternatives either by consensus building or by combining judgments or priorities using the geometric mean to aggregate their preferences. In this paper, we extend the use of AHP to a situation involving a large nominal group of dispersed decision makers where the entire hierarchy is not defined at the outset. In particular, we use the AHP as an integrative approach to identify the priorities of the various criteria and then use those priorities to screen and consolidate a large set of potential alternatives. This results in considering a reduced set of alternatives that will be affected by the more important criteria. The consolidated set of alternatives is evaluated by each individual in the group using AHP, combined using the geometric mean, and the results are synthesized to obtain the overall priorities of the alternatives. The approach is demonstrated and evaluated in a case study to select an alunmi anniversary gift to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy with a large nominal group of decision-makers dispersed throughout the United States.     

Coordination in shared facilities: A new methodology

Shared facilities are a good example of the difficulties inherent in coordination problems and the benefits to be derived from creative solutions. Traditional methods employed by engineers and others, because they ignore an important aspect of the problem, can yield solutions that appear successful but which significantly underutilize these facilities. This article is intended to be an introduction to the types of problems that can arise and to a new method for systematically studying these problems. The method is illustrated with the results of a study done for NASA, on the coordination of the use of a Space Station, which produced a new computer‐assisted institution that outperforms existing institutions.     

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.     

A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for IS Student Group Project Assessment

To accommodate the criterion-referenced student group project assessment approach, this paper proposes a fuzzy group Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) model. The proposed model can be used to solve student group project assessment problem in particular and generic MCDM problems in general, where the criteria used are often different and can be scored with multiple preference formats. The proposed fuzzy group MCDM model supports seven different preference formats, including preference ordering, utility vector, linguistic term vector, selected subset, fuzzy selected subset, fuzzy preference relation, and normal preference relation. It has been firstly used in the context of Information Systems (IS) student group project assessment.     

Assessing risks – challenges posed by the European general product safety directive

The concept of risk appears in a prominent way in the recently revised European Directive on General Product Safety (GPSD). Risk assessment is therefore an important tool for the success of the Directive; the question is how risk assessment should be carried out in a systematic manner in order to meet the aims of the Directive. In this paper, the references in the GPSD concerning the concept of risk are reviewed and compared with reported problems in European risk assessment. Existing guidelines for risk assessment are examined in order to determine what factors determine the consistency of the outcome. This leads to recommendations for a process that could be followed in order to make risk assessment successful in the context of the GPSD. On the basis of existing guidelines for risk assessment, criteria are formulated with which methods of risk assessment should comply. A stepwise process is proposed in order to develop a common method of risk assessment that can be applied in Europe to support the GPSD. The requirements for risk management in the new GPSD are rather and lack specification, both for producers and for enforcement authorities. The Directive further refers to the need to develop non-binding guidelines in due course. Sources of different outcomes of the risk assessment process are outlined in this paper as well as possibilities to achieve a more consistent basis for decisions, more uniformity and transparency. These are essential conditions if one wishes to avoid both undue trade barriers and unsafe products on the market. A leading role for the European Commission seems necessary to make sure that the intentions of the GPSD are accomplished.     

Risk management behaviour by the Northern Ireland food consumer

The main criteria that consumers use during the decision‐making process when purchasing food have traditionally been a combination of prices, incomes, taste and social attitudes, with price being seen as the main determinant. However, in the past 10 years risk has become a ‘new’ criterion that can affect the consumer's decision whether or not to purchase a particular food item. The effect of the perception of risk has been observed during the numerous food scares in the last decade and in trends for the demand for foods that connote a health image. This research, carried out in Northern Ireland, looked at how consumers quantified and managed risk. The research involved 202 primary food consumers and identified the factors that were perceived to be important from both a societal and a personal perspective. Using principal component analysis techniques, societal food risks were seen as either processing or dietary, and personal food risks were seen as either extrinsic or intrinsic. Further investigation into the attributes of the personal risk using the same techniques revealed a three‐factor solution described as fear, involvement and newness. Although these factors cannot be used as predictors of the risk associated with a particular food, they help to describe and explain how the risk may be managed. The relationship between two of the factors, involvement and fear, provide a framework for understanding the way consumers manage their perception of the risk, particularly of high‐risk items. Consumer and scientific knowledge of the risk in question, and the degree of control over the risk were seen as important in the management of the risk in question. The conceptualization of the mechanism by which risks are processed and acted upon provides information regarding risk management and communication strategies that should be employed by educators, food retailers and government policy makers.     

Risk Perception in the Short Run and in the Long Run

There is an ongoing controversy in financial economics regarding the role of time horizon in portfolio selection. This problem is relevant in a broader context, wherever consumers or managers make decisions that involve both time and risk. The purpose of this paper is to review recent findings from the decision making literature so as to shed new light on how the short run vs. long run contingency may determine risk taking and perception.     

Information Collection Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Paradigm

In an experts-assisted decision making paradigm, the information collection design becomes a strategic variable under a weak assumption that the final decision is dependent on the design used to collect information as well. As a result, the same information of the experts and the decision maker about the problem can potentially produce different final decisions for different information collection designs. The implication is that a decision maker can strategically select a design which serves his/her objective. This paper uses a Bayesian estimation methodology for combining experts' information with the decision maker's prior. An information collection process is designed by setting constraints on this model. Several designs are developed here using such controlled factors as a one-stage versus a two-stage decision process, experts' rank ordering, and group versus individual lobbying/consultation. An example is provided to illustrate the applicability of the concept. It is shown that the information produced in the process of producing a decision can also give insights into the impacts of the decision maker and the experts on the decision.     

Weak equilibria for time-inconsistent control: With applications to investment-withdrawal decisions

This paper considers time-inconsistent problems when control and stopping strategies are required to be made simultaneously (called stopping control problems by us). We first formulate the time-inconsistent stopping control problems under general multidimensional controlled diffusion model and propose a formal definition of their equilibria. We show that an admissible pair $(\widehat{u},C)$ of control-stopping policy is equilibrium if and only if the auxiliary function associated with it solves the extended HJB system, providing a methodology to verify or exclude equilibrium solutions. We provide several examples to illustrate applications to mathematical finance and control theory. For a problem whose reward function endogenously depends on the current wealth, the equilibrium is explicitly obtained. For another model with a nonexponential discount, we prove that any constant proportion strategy can not be equilibrium. We further show that general nonconstant equilibrium exists and is described by singular boundary value problems. This example shows that considering our combined problems is essentially different from investigating them separately. In the end, we also provide a two-dimensional example with a hyperbolic discount.     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

The Secretary Problem Revisited - The Group Decision-Making Perspective

We consider a decision situation where there is an initial set of alternatives that may be augmented, a variant of the problem known in the literature as the "secretary problem". We focus the discussion on the special case of group decision-making, where a group or committee is charged with the responsibility of negotiating the decision. We investigate situations of explicitly stated (multiple) criteria and the simpler situation of no such stated criteria. The former case includes the congenial, the mixed, and the uncongenial cases, where the individuals agree on the direction of all, some, or none of the criteria, respectively. We offer a framework within which a group of individuals can be supported in such a decision process. In the case of explicit criteria, we provide the decision-makers with probability information of the likelihood of finding more preferred alternatives provided the initial set of alternatives is expanded. The framework is tested using a simulated real-world choice situation.     

Voting Paradoxes and MCDM

Many, if not most, problems in group decision making can be translated into MCDM problems by substituting criteria for voters. Yet, there has been very little discussion about the implications of various types of voting paradoxes to MCDM. The classic voting paradoxes, viz. Borda's and Condorcet's, have obvious implications for certain MCDM situations. The latter implies that the notion of the best alternative, given a set of criteria and information about the ordinal ranking of the alternatives on those criteria, can be essentially arbitrary. The former, in turn, demonstrates a particularly clear case of conflict between reasonable intuitions. Completely unexplored are implications of compound majority paradoxes to MCDM. The paper deals with Ostrogorski's and Anscombe's paradoxes which result from non-bisymmetry and non-associativity of the majority relation. Moreover, we shall discuss the implications of paradox of multiple elections which is a situation where the result of multiple-item election may be a policy alternative that nobody voted for.     

BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK UNDER FUNDING CONSTRAINTS—PART I: PRICING

This and the follow‐up paper deal with the valuation and hedging of bilateral counterparty risk on over‐the‐counter derivatives. Our study is done in a multiple‐curve setup reflecting the various funding constraints (or costs) involved, allowing one to investigate the question of interaction between bilateral counterparty risk and funding. The first task is to define a suitable notion of no arbitrage price in the presence of various funding costs. This is the object of this paper, where we develop an “additive, multiple curve” extension of the classical “multiplicative (discounted), one curve” risk‐neutral pricing approach. We derive the dynamic hedging interpretation of such an “additive risk‐neutral” price, starting by consistency with pricing by replication in the case of a complete market. This is illustrated by a completely solved example building over previous work by Burgard and Kjaer.     

MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCENARIO AGGREGATION

This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the definition of five fundamental criteria that serve as a basis for our method. Standard risk measures, such as value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall, are shown to be robust with respect to minimum divergence scenario aggregation. Various examples illustrate the tractability of our method.     

基本公共服务均等化如何促进了个人创业--来自医保改革的证据

在高质量发展目标下,推行基本公共服务均等化、促进大众创业是中国经济新常态下的工作重点。基于中国城镇职工基本医疗保险在创业者和非创业者之间可得性的外生差异,本文使用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)的微观数据,研究社会保险这一基本公共服务在创业者和非创业者之间的相对可得性如何影响个人的创业决策。我们发现,如果城镇职工基本医疗保险对于非创业者更可得,将成为“创业枷锁”,降低个人选择创业的可能性;如果城镇职工基本医疗保险对于创业者更可得,将成为“创业催化剂”,提高个人选择创业的可能性。此外,我们发现,城镇职工基本医疗保险的“创业催化剂”作用对于来自中等收入家庭和小家庭的个人更为显著,而“创业枷锁”效应则更多地影响城镇职工基本医疗保险在薪酬体系中重要性更高的个体。本文认为中国的社会保险对于大众创业具有积极正面的影响。这对于我国社会保险制度的设计和促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。     

Rigidity in SME export commencement decisions

In an increasingly globalised world, firms generally have become more internationalised utilising a range of different modes of operation. In the case of small-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), exporting is the favoured mode of international market entry, at least in the early stages of internationalisation, and many governments have supported SME exports through export promotion policies because of the importance of SMEs in employment creation. However, in spite of this policy focus, in most countries, the proportional involvement of SMEs in exporting remains low, which raises an important question as to what factors are inhibiting firms that are successful domestically from exporting. In addressing this question, much scholarly research has focused on the broad concept of ‘export barriers’. These barriers, for example, tariffs, quotas and administrative obstacles, are seen as a primary source of export reluctance. This paper takes a different approach to previous studies and proposes that a firm's resistance to exporting can be better understood through an analysis of the behavioural decision process of firms in line with the Uppsala internationalisation model. We propose ‘lateral rigidity’, first introduced in the literature in the 1970s, as an important concept in export commencement. By applying factor analysis to a survey of Australian SMEs, we provide a measurement model for lateral rigidity, revealing its important factors and thus strengthening understanding of firms' export commencement decisions. We conclude by drawing implications for internationalisation theory, practice and public policy and suggesting ways to extend this work through future research.     

Criteria for Evaluating the Legitimacy of Corporate Social Responsibility

The goal of this paper is to provide a general discussion about the legitimacy of corporate social responsibility. Given that social responsibility projects entail costs, it is not always obvious under what precise conditions managers will have a responsibility to engage in activities primarily designed to promote societal goals.In this paper we discuss four distinct criteria for evaluating the legitimacy of corporate projects for institutionalizing social responsibility:(1) local knowledge(2) level of responsibility(3) shared consensus, and(4) relationship to financial performance.We conclude our discussion by noting that in those cases where the firm possesses knowledge about a specific problem and its solution, is directly responsible for causing harm, where a shared consensus among all relevant stakeholders exists, and financial performance will be enhanced, social responsibility projects are ideal. Obviously, no program will meet all of the criteria. In fact, our model specifically suggests that there is often a trade-off between the first three criteria and the last. For example, in those situations where the corporation directly imposes harm on third parties, and where a high degree of consensus exists among all stakeholders, there is little need to link the social responsibility program to financial performance. By contrast, as the corporation seeks proactive solutions to problems which are only incidental to the corporation, and where little consensus exists, the predicted relationship to financial performance becomes more crucial. By formally examining the trade-offs among these four criteria we more fully understand the complex relationship between social responsibility and financial impacts.     

Criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate new venture proposals

A questionnaire was administered to one hundred venture capitalists to determine the most important criteria that they use to decide on funding new ventures. Perhaps the most important finding from the study is direct confirmation of the frequently iterated position taken by the venture capital community that above all it is the quality of the entrepreneur that ultimately determines the funding decision. Five of the top ten most important criteria had to do with the entrepreneur's experience or personality. There is no question that irrespective of the horse (product), horse race (market), or odds (financial criteria), it is the jockey (entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all.The question is if this is the case, then why is so much emphasis placed on the business plan? In a business plan there is generally little to indicate the characteristics of the entrepreneur—it is generally devoted to a detailed discussion of the product/service, the market, and the competition. To us, the implications are obvious—such content is necessary, but not sufficient. The business plan should also show as clearly as possible that the “jockey is fit to ride” —namely, indicate by whatever feasible and credible means possible that the entrepreneur has staying power, has a track record, can react to risk well, and has familiarity with the target market. Failing this, he or she needs to be able to pull together a team that has such characteristics and show that he or she is capable of leading that team.Factor analysis of the results indicate that venture capitalists appear to assess ventures systematically in terms of six categories of risk to be managed. These are: risk of losing the entire investment: risk of being unable to bail out if necessary; risk of failure to implement the venture idea; competitive risk; risk of management failure; and risk of leadership failure.Finally, three clusters of venture capitalists were identified: those who carefully assess the competitive and implementation risks: those who seek easy bail out; and those who deliberately keep as many options open as possible.     

基于模糊物元的自然灾害应急物流线路优选模型研究

突发性自然灾害中的应急物流线路选择是一个多目标评价问题,因为较强的不确定性和模糊性而较难准确实现。构建了突发性自然灾害中应急物流线路选择评价的指标体系,并主要基于模糊物元分析方法,提出了一种应急物流线路优选的模糊物元模型,为线路优选决策提供定量依据,并给出了计算实例,以验证该模型的有效性和可行性。     

A Practical Procedure for Group Decision Making under Incomplete Multiplicative Linguistic Preference Relations

The aim of this paper is to investigate a group decision making problem with incomplete multiplicative linguistic preference relations. We first define the concept of an incomplete multiplicative linguistic preference relation, and then develop a simple algorithm to extend each incomplete multiplicative linguistic preference relation to a complete multiplicative linguistic preference relation. Finally, we develop a practical procedure for group decision making under incomplete multiplicative linguistic preference relations, and give a numerical example to illustrate the developed procedure.