On the theory of monopolistic competition under demand uncertainty

Establishing a model of a monopolistically competitive industry in which risk-averse Cournot firms act under demand uncertainty and in which the output of individual firms and the number of firms in the industry are both endogenously determined by free entry and exit, this paper attempts to investigate the effects of demand uncertainty on the market equilibrium of a monopolistically competitive industry. It is assumed, for calculus simplification, that the firms are identical in the sense that they have the same monopolistic power and the same production technology. The paper presents some interesting and useful comparative statics results which are contrary to those proposed in the existing papers.This is a revised version of my paper which was firstly presented to the annual meeting of the Japanese Association of International Economics held in 1988 and then included partially in my book published in 1989. I am indebted to professors D. Bös, S. Fujino, M. Ohyama, M. Nishijima, to the members of the Public Economics Research Seminar in Bonn, and to two anonymous referees for their helpful discussions and useful suggestions. Any remaining errors, however, are my responsibility.     

Fiscal policy,rent seeking,and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD

Abstract. We construct a general equilibrium model of economic growth and optimally chosen fiscal policy, in which individuals compete with each other for a share of government spending and two political parties alternate in power according to exogenous electoral uncertainty. The main prediction is that uncertainty about remaining in power results in increased fiscal spending, which in turn distorts incentives by pushing individuals away from productive work to rent‐seeking activities; then, distorted incentives hurt growth. This scenario receives empirical support in a dataset of 25 OECD countries over the period 1982–96. In particular, uncertainty about remaining in power leads to larger government shares in GDP, which in turn exert an adverse effect on the ICRG index measuring incentives and this is bad for growth.     

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general.     

Optimal growth and uncertainty: Learning

We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural uncertainty and uncertainty due to the anticipation of learning. The latter renders control and learning nonseparable. We present two sets of results in a learning environment. First, conditions under which the introduction of learning increases or decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which may pull in opposite directions. Second, the effects of the mean and riskiness of the distribution of the signal and initial beliefs on optimal consumption are studied.     

Optimal fiscal policy, uncertainty, and growth

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a stochastic endogenous growth model. Due to externalities in human capital accumulation, the market allocation is inefficient, thereby justifying government intervention. The uncertainty stemming from technological disturbances affects the growth rate, which can be explained by precautionary motives of risk averse agents. Fiscal policy means consist of a consumption tax, investment subsidies, and bonds. We obtain counter-acting growth effects of investment subsidies, which are differentiated with respect to deterministic and stochastic capital income components. The policy implications from the deterministic model are substantially extended in the stochastic context. A general rule for a welfare maximizing policy is derived, which is represented by a continuum of alternative tax-transfer-schemes. We discuss three benchmark cases, which crucially differ with respect to their implications regarding the size of the government expenditure share.     

Product variety, competition and economic growth

In this paper, we study the relationship between competition and economic growth using a model of economic development through the creation of new sectors. In our model, competition has both an intra- and an inter-sector component. We find that the best conditions for economic development are achieved when a suitable ratio of inter- to intra-sector competition is achieved. This ratio constitutes a compromise between providing a temporary monopoly to the first entrepreneur (low inter-sector competition) and creating enough imitation to expand the sector (intra-sector competition).     

Franchise fee, competition and economic growth

This paper introduces the different kinds of franchise contract bargaining into a macroeconomic model and accordingly researches the relationship between competition and economic growth. In Nash bargaining model/vertical integration we find an inverted-U shaped or a monotonically increasing relationship between the competitive degree of the intermediate goods market and economic growth. In bargaining of the right to manage model/vertical non-integration our result shows an inverted-U shaped or a monotonically decreasing relationship between the competitive degree of the intermediate goods market and economic growth. In addition, there is an overall negative relationship between the competitive degree of the final goods market and economic growth. Especially, our interesting findings that the pricing rule for intermediate goods firm depends not only on market power but also bargaining power are more general. Therefore, we can further explain the firms' vertical control strategy.     

Modelling investment and disinvestment decisions under competition,uncertainty and different market interventions

A real options market model is developed, which derives the firms' optimal investment and disinvestment thresholds simultaneously in a competitive environment. It combines genetic algorithms and stochastic simulation, whereby vast modelling flexibility is gained. For example, different market interventions can be integrated and their effects on the firms' investment behaviour and the sectoral welfare can be assessed. The model is validated for its application to competitive markets by numerically replicating the optimality property of myopic planning. According to the results, production ceilings and investment subsidies are preferable to price floors because the welfare is less reduced for a given stimulation of the willingness to invest. Moreover, it is shown that not considering disinvestment options, which in reality often exist, can lead to incorrect valuations of investment strategies at firm level and incorrect policy impact analyses at macroeconomic level.     

Money growth,uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis

The impact uncertainty has on money growth has received much attention in recent years and is an issue of critical importance to central banks, particularly for those, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), which place a strong emphasis on monetary analysis in monetary policy formulation. Some recent papers examining this issue use ad hoc estimates and measure variability rather than uncertainty. We employ a multivariate GARCH model, which measures uncertainty by the conditional variance of the data series, to investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty Granger-cause changes in real money. The estimated model also allows us to investigate how monetary uncertainty impacts economic activity. We find that macroeconomic uncertainty impacts positively on US real M2 growth over a two-year horizon but that monetary uncertainty does not cause changes in real M2. Instead, our results indicate that real money growth causes monetary uncertainty. Monetary uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on real economic activity and on macroeconomic uncertainty. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results and the methodological approach used for institutions such as the ECB that give monetary analysis a prominent role in their monetary policy strategy.     

Globalisation, capital mobility and tax competition: theory and evidence for OECD countries

Are the predictions of tax competition theory wrong? While the tax competition literature predicts that taxes on income from capital decrease with increasing globalisation, past empirical studies on various data find contradicting evidence. By using different data and additional elements of economic theory, this paper aims to challenge the empirical contributions. For a panel of 14 OECD countries and for the period 1967–1996, we find that globalisation has indeed a negative and significant impact on corporate taxes. Furthermore, globalisation tends to raise labour taxes and social expenditures. As a consequence, the so-called “efficiency” and “compensation” hypotheses of globalisation are not competing, but rather, both appear to apply at the same time. Efficiency has an impact on the tax-mix, whereas compensation is provided through increased social expenditures.     

Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory

We develop a parsimonious finance and endogenous growth model with microeconomic frictions in entrepreneurship and a role for credit constraints. We demonstrate that though an efficiency–growth relation will always exist, the efficiency–depth–growth relation may not. This has implications for the connection between the theory and empirics of finance and growth. We go on to ask whether the model can account for some historical trends in growth, financial depth and financial efficiency for the UK over the period 1850–1913. The best model of finance and growth is one that departs from the standard depth–growth link.     

Income shifting, investment, and tax competition: theory and evidence from provincial taxation in Canada

We study corporate income taxation when firms operating in multiple jurisdictions can shift income using tax planning strategies. Because income of corporate groups is not consolidated for tax purposes in Canada, firms may use financial techniques, such as lending among affiliates, to reduce subnational corporate taxes. A simple theoretical model shows how income shifting affects real investment, government revenues, and tax base elasticities, depending on whether firms must allocate income to provinces or not. We then analyze data from administrative tax records to compare the behavior of corporate subsidiaries that may engage in income shifting to comparable firms that must use the statutory allocation formula to determine their taxable income in each province. The evidence suggests that income shifting has pronounced effects on provincial tax bases. According to our preferred estimate, the elasticity of taxable income with respect to tax rates for “income shifting” firms is 4.9, compared with 2.3 for other, comparable firms.     

Lagging productivity growth: Measurement,technology, and shock effects

One of the most important problems about which economists have professional knowledge is lagging productivity growth. After illustrating some significant developments this paper addresses three questions: (1) To what extent does R&;D activity drive productivity growth, (2) how do alternative measures of productivity affect the conclusions and (3) how did the oil price shocks and the increased openness of the U.S. economy affect productivity growth? After removing the influence of the extremely dynamic computer industry, average manufacturing industry productivity in the U.S. throughout the 80s grew at a disappointing pace. And it didn't improve in the most dynamic industries. But there is good news as well. First, part of the 1970s productivity slump is clearly attributable to the 1973–74 oil price shock. Second and more important, technological innovation does not appear to have lost its power in driving productivity growth forward. Indeed there is evidence of stronger and more consistent productivity effects from R&;D investment during the 1980s, although the exact channels through which R&;D enhances manufacturing sector productivity are left in doubt. Estimates of the role inter-industry technology flows play are sensitive to aggregation and the conventions used to construct the industry price deflators underlying productivity measures.     

Population,food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory

This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus’ (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis—that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food—the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.