Toward A Second-Generation Theory of Fiscal Federalism

Drawing on a wide range of literature and ideas, a new “second-generation theory of fiscal federalism” is emerging that provides new insights into the structure and working of federal systems. After a restatement and review of the first-generation theory, this paper surveys this new body of work and offers some thoughts on the ways in which it is extending our understanding of fiscal federalism and on its implications for the design of fiscal institutions.JEL Code: H77, H11     

House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience

Using Australian capital city data from 1984Q3--2008Q2, this paper utilizes a dynamic present value model within a VAR framework to construct time series of house prices depicting what aggregate house prices should be given expectations of future real disposable income - the “fundamental price” - and continues by comparing capital city fundamental prices with actual prices. The extent to which revealed capital city “non-fundamental” components spillover from state to state, as well as their long-term impact is also investigated. Results provide evidence of periods of sustained deviations of house prices from values warranted by income for all state capitals with the greatest deviations arising in the NSW market and starting around 2000. In general NSW is relatively more susceptible to spillovers transmitted from other states while ACT and WA are most isolated from the rest of the country.     

The Eurozone needs exit rules

This study argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone’s (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the relationship between the centre and the periphery of the EZ. Our argument proceeds in two steps. Firstly, the basic finance problem of a centre-periphery system is captured by a threat game with complete but imperfect information. To get close to the essence of the current EZ sovereign debt crisis we analyse to what extent a ‘troubled’ periphery member can negotiate a bailout from the centre due to the existence of a negative externality arising from its potential default. Secondly, we analyse how establishing ‘exit rules’ would shift the centre-periphery relationship in a way that safeguards the stability of the EZ. We demonstrate that such rules may help limit the scope for brinkmanship whereby fiscal problems in one member state create a negative externality for the rest of the EZ. We then discuss key policy implications concerning financial aspects of the centre-periphery relationship within the EZ.     

Cities under stress

This paper studies the effect of terrorist attacks on the internal structure of cities. We develop an urban framework with capital structures suitable for the study of this question and analyze the long and short term implications of this type of events. In the long run, the analysis shows that a terrorist attack will affect urban structure only modestly, relative to the potentially large decrease in the level of economic activity in the city. Land rents will not decline at all locations. In the short run, agglomeration forces will amplify the effect of the original destruction and will reduce urban economic activity temporarily.     

Spatial Distributions and Determinants of Regional Innovation in China: Evidence from Chinese Metropolitan Data

This article, using a panel dataset covering patents granted in 336 cities and the economic and employment data of 282 cities in China, presents an preliminary exploratory spatial data analysis by Gini coefficient and Moran’s I analysis, and a confirmatory spatial data analysis by spatial Durbin model. We first investigate China regional innovative activities by three different types of patents at metropolitan-level data and make several key findings. First, the spatial autocorrelation of invention patent is insignificant from 2001 to 2013, whereas the coefficients of spatial autocorrelation of utility patents and design patents are continuingly rising across years. Second, the innovation clusters are vanishing in China’s western and northeastern cities, whereas booming in the periphery cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou during 2000–2015. Third, the cities surrounded by high level of GDP output and R&D expenditure neighbors will more likely perform better in innovative activities. By employing smaller territorial units, we provide more specific details about the regional distribution and the dynamic interaction of innovative activities across cities in China.     

Measuring the effects of geographical distance on stock market correlation

Recent studies suggest that the correlation of stock returns increases with decreasing geographical distance. However, there is some debate on the appropriate methodology for measuring the effects of distance on correlation. We modify a regression approach suggested in the literature and complement it with an approach from spatial statistics, the mark correlation function. For the stocks contained in the S&P 500 that we examine, both approaches lead to similar results. Contrary to previous studies we find that beyond 50 miles geographical proximity is irrelevant for stock return correlations. For distances below 50 miles, we can show that the magnitude of local correlations varies with investor sentiment.     

Road Taxes,Road User Charges and Earmarking

The UK Road Fund was set up in 1921 and financed by earmarked taxes, but was unsuccessful as a form of road finance and abandoned in 1937. The paper examines why earmarking failed and what problems arise for replacing road taxes by hypothecated road charges. These charges would need to be regulated and could evolve into a more efficient system of road pricing. The paper claims that recent experiences with regulating capital-intensive network industries make road user charging and the commercialisation of the public highway both feasible and desirable, but that recent government proposals for local earmarked taxes are inadequate.