Wage Spillovers,Inter-regional Effects and the Impact of Inward Investment

Abstract

This paper evaluates the extent of inter-industry and inter-regional wage spillovers across the UK. An extensive body of literature exists suggesting that wages elsewhere affect wage determination and levels of satisfaction, but this paper extends the analysis of wage determination to examine the effects of inward investment in the process. Thus far the specific effect of foreign wages on domestic wage determination has not been evaluated. We employ industry- and regional-level panel data for the UK, and contrast results from alternative approaches to space-time modelling. Each supports the notion that such wage spillovers do occur, though assumptions made concerning the modelling of spatial interaction are important. Further, such wage spillovers are more widespread for skilled than for unskilled workers and also lower in areas of high unemployment.     

Brexit and FDI

• The potential for a departure from the EU to undermine the UK's attractiveness as a location for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often cited as one of the key risks were the UK to leave the EU. In weighing up the threat to FDI posed by ‘Brexit’ we assess the net gain from inward investment and the role played by EU membership in attracting FDI.
• In theory, FDI benefits the economy via lower interest rates, higher wages for workers and ‘spillover’ benefits boosting economy‐wide productivity. But the evidence for these benefits is ambiguous. And FDI has potential drawbacks. These include an adverse effect on the tradeable sector, reflected in a wider current account deficit, the potential to ‘crowd out’ investment by domestic firms and the fiscal cost of subsidies paid to inward investors.
• That almost half of FDI in the UK comes from other EU countries suggests that EU membership is not the only driver of foreign investment in the UK. Other factors include the UK's business friendly environment, as reflected in global competitiveness surveys, and a relatively deregulated labour market. Of perhaps most importance is the lure provided by the UK's large domestic economy. 80% of FDI in the UK is in sectors where sales to the EU account for less than 10% of total demand.
• However, FDI in manufacturing does look vulnerable to Brexit, given the importance of the EU market. Granted, manufacturing accounts for a modest share of UK FDI. But to the extent that FDI boosts productivity, a loss of inward investment in this sector is likely to come at a disproportionate cost.
• Our modelling suggests that in a worst case Brexit scenario, the stock of FDI could ultimately be 7% lower relative to the UK remaining in the EU, potentially knocking around ½% off the level of GDP.

     

MAKING INDONESIA MORE ATTRACTIVE TO FOREIGN INVESTORS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF REDUCING THE RISK PREMIUM IN CENTRAL JAVA

Indonesia aims to increase inward foreign direct investment. However, widespread discrimination in how investments are treated, the weak application of the rule of law and opaque regulations have increased the risk premium confronting potential investors and impaired foreign direct investment. This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium Model to simulate the economic effect of a reduction in the risk premium in Central Java on investors in the chemical sector and a select range of sectors nominated by the Central Java government as representing investment opportunities. The results suggest capital flows to Central Java increase, generating higher employment, labor productivity, real wages and GDP in Central Java. At the national level, real investment, aggregate capital stock and GDP increase for Indonesia as a whole. The policy implications are that greater transparency and consistency in the application of the rule of law, will increase capital inflow and result in improved macroeconomic performance.     

FDI流入对东道国工资效应的研究综述

FD I流入必然会对东道国工资产生影响。随着并购的增多,国际学术界对绿地投资和并购的工资差异以及并购前后工资变化的研究逐渐增多。文章综合国际学术界在该领域的研究动向及最新成果,对于我国学术界有一定参考价值。     

Effects of international trade on domestic employment: an application of a global multiregional input–output supermultiplier model (1995–2011)

The effects on domestic employment of international trade and the globalisation of supply chains are as politically controversial as they are empirically inconclusive. To estimate them we extend the global multiregional input–output framework by endogenising demand for both domestic and imported intermediates, private business investment and household non-durable consumption – or equivalently, we generalise the supermultiplier formula. The model accounts, in particular, for the employment consequences of economic integration and those channelled through integration. We estimate these foreign sector effects alongside those of domestic origin using a recursive hierarchical structural decomposition analysis and statistics from the World Input–Output Database and National Accounts that cover years 1995–2011. Focusing on Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the US, Japan and China we answer the following questions: To what extent did international linkages deriving from international trade affect domestic employment? Did domestic employment benefit from economic integration?     

How Domestic and Foreign Firms Differ and Why Does it Matter?

Abstract.  This paper reviews and summarises the results of selected studies on performance gaps between multinational enterprises and their domestic counterparts. Performance gaps arise in such fields as productivity, technology, profitability, wages, skills and growth. While these gaps are often attributed to foreign ownership of the affiliates, the theory of the Multinational Enterprise argues that these gaps are due to being a Multinational rather than the nationality of the firm. Empirical evidence on the existence of performance gaps between foreign and domestic firms is supportive of this view: foreign ownership turns out to be a much less important explanatory factor than normally assumed. Firm‐specific assets and firm characteristics like industry, size, parent country and multinationality per se are more important. Such results are broadly consistent with those derived in the literatures on ownership change, on foreign entry and on spillovers. We conclude that there is little case for foreign direct investment promotion policies to discriminate between firms on the basis of ownership.     

Strategic investment and international outsourcing in unionised oligopoly

We develop an oligopoly model in which firms facing unionised domestic labour markets choose between producing an intermediate good in-house and outsourcing it to a non-unionised foreign supplier that makes a relationship-specific investment in developing the intermediate. The paper sheds light on the issue of whether international outsourcing offers a means to ‘escape’ the power of domestic unions and on the existence of intra-industry wage dispersion. We show that outsourcing typically increases marginal costs even when it lowers union wages. Despite this, more powerful unions increase the incentive to outsource.     

Efficiency Wages and the Economic Effects of the Minimum Wage: Evidence from a Low‐Wage Labour Market*

This article exploits a natural experiment provided by the 1999 introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) to test for efficiency wage considerations in a low‐wage sector, the UK residential care homes industry. The empirical results provide support to the wage‐supervision trade‐off prediction of the shirking model and suggest that the NMW may have operated as an efficiency wage in the care homes sector, leading to a reduction in supervision costs. These findings can explain earlier evidence suggesting that although the NMW introduction increased wages dramatically in the care homes sector, it generated only moderate negative employment effects.     

FDI and credit constraints: Firm-level evidence from China

In this paper, we assess the success of the ongoing financial system reforms in China by investigating the extent to which firms are financially constrained. We focus on the role played by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in funding the Chinese corporate sector, and analyze whether incoming foreign investment in China plays an important role in alleviating domestic firms’ credit constraints. Using firm-level data on 1300 domestic companies over the period 2000–2002, we confirm that the development of cross-border relationships with foreign firms helps private domestic firms to bypass both the financial and legal obstacles that they face at home.     

Mexico under NAFTA: a critical assessment

This paper assesses the evolution and performance of several key economic and social variables in Mexico following the passage of NAFTA. The evidence shows that under NAFTA Mexican trade and foreign direct investment inflows have risen at rapid rates, particularly in the export-oriented assembly-line sector. However, the evidence also suggests that it is hard to disentangle the effects of NAFTA from the other non-NAFTA factors such as demand in the U.S. in explaining the dynamism of the Mexican export sector (and economy). This has been attested by how the Mexican economy has been dragged into a severe recession over the past two years as a result of the relatively mild downturn in the U.S. business cycle.Insofar as employment growth, real wages in manufacturing, and productivity performance is concerned, the evidence presented indicates that the record has been lackluster at best and disastrous at worst. Manufacturing employment fell dramatically after the peso crisis, and remains stagnant. Real wages have plunged since the peso crisis and have yet to recover levels attained in the mid-1980s. In terms of productivity performance, no strong conclusions can be reached given the conflicting estimates in the extant literature. At best, the data show that productivity rose at healthy rates in the tradeable sector, but stagnated in the non-tradeable sector.Finally, the paper presents evidence which shows that both the functional and size distribution of income have become more skewed during the period of trade and investment liberalization (JEL 040,054).     

Portfolio Selection and the Investment Performance of the UK Pension Funds*

Pension funds are the main institutional investors, accounting for 38 per cent of personal sector net financial wealth. As a result of their growing importance in mobilizing personal sector saving, they have emerged as the principal institutional investor, controlling over £200bn of funds at the end of 1987, their total net assets equalling 38 per cent of personal sector net financial wealth. Pension funds also dominate domestic asset markets, owning 27per cent of the stock of outstanding UK equity, 23 per cent of UK government securities and 17 per cent of total UK holdings of overseas equity. In this paper we present the conclusions from recent research, undertaken as part of an updating of the LBS Financial Model. Our results suggest that UK pension fund investment since 1980 is better than previous studies have suggested and, in particular, that funds outperformed the equity market in the 1980s, offering a higher return for any given level of risk. In addition fund behaviour is slow to change, with past behaviour exerting the strongest influence on current investment patterns. Fund managers also appear guilty of “short termism” in that they place little weight on events beyond the next three months. However, this has not made them inefficient. Finally, we find that actions to restrict the funds' surpluses should not affect their investment behaviour. Our results also suggest that the costs from exchange controls in the 1970s were substantial, amounting to some £4bn per year.     

International trade and the U.S. wage structure

Politicians are concerned about the effects of increased foreign trade on U.S. workers. Data from 1978 to 1987 are used to appraise the impact of foreign trade on U.S. manufacturing wages. The results indicate that wages are positively associated with a sector’s level of international comparative advantage. However, this follows from other characteristics aside from the net trade balance. These characteristics may include rent sharing or international technological convergence. Imports and exports also influence wages, where this impact varies with the industry’s unionization. Regardless, the results suggest that greater trade is not a major cause of the decline in U.S. real wages.     

Financial advantage,outsourcing and FDI under wage uncertainty

This paper investigates outsourcing and foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions in North–South trade under conditions of wage uncertainty. The North has a financial advantage to raise capital, but the South has the advantage of low wages. If the expected outsourcing cost is lower than the in-house production cost, some outsourcing to a Southern firm is optimal. However, outsourcing to an FDI firm is superior to outsourcing to a Southern firm as well as in-house production. This finding is consistent with the rising foreign direct investment in China by Northern firms.     

The effects of multiple minimum wages throughout the labor market: The case of Costa Rica

This paper investigates the effects of legal minimum wages on employment and hours worked among workers covered by minimum wage legislation as well as those for whom it does not apply (the uncovered sector) in Costa Rica. This country's large uncovered sector and complex minimum wage policy, which has for decades set numerous wages throughout the wage distribution, provide a stimulating counterpoint to the U.S. framework for the analysis of the impact of minimum wages. Using 1988–2000 micro data, we find that a 10% increase in minimum wages lowers employment in the covered sector by 1.09% and decreases the average number of hours worked of those who remain in the covered sector by about 0.6%. We do not find a significant impact on hours worked in the uncovered sector. Finally, we show that despite the wide range of minimum wages, the largest impact on the employment of covered sector workers is in the lower half of the skill distribution.     

外商直接投资与经济增长:基于动态VAR模型的分析

外商直接投资与经济增长的关系一直是国内外学者研究的热点。本文运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济学方法,基于2002年至2011年的季度数据,对外商直接投资与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:从长期来看,外商直接投资的增加有助于促进经济增长,但是短期这种促进作用并不明显;经济增长有助于外商直接投资的增加。     

国内投资与外商直接投资就业效应的差异性研究——基于江苏省的数据分析

以江苏省1990～2007年的相关数据为研究对象,运用多元回归分析的方法,对国内投资、外商直接投资以及经济增长带来的就业效应进行估计,并对实证研究结果进行分析,发现国内投资与外商直接投资的就业效应有着明显的差异性,根据这一结论进一步探讨江苏省合理安排投资,促进就业的相应对策。     

Dynamic and non-neutral productivity effects of foreign ownership: A nonparametric approach

This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high-tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non-Hicks-neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non-neutral productivity implications in developed countries. We propose and implement an econometric framework to estimate both effects using firm-level data from China's manufacturing sector. Our framework extends a nonparametric productivity framework, in which identification is achieved using a firm's first-order conditions and timing assumptions. We find strong evidence of dynamic and non-neutral effects from foreign ownership, with significant differences across investment sources. Investment from OECD sources is found to provide a long-term productivity boost for all but the largest recipients, while that from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan does not raise performance. These findings have implications for China's declining labor share and for the rising domestic value-added content of its high-tech exports.     

Sino-Indian Liberalization: The Role of Trade and Foreign Investment

Two major factors account for a country’s growing integration with the global economy: trade and foreign investment; expansion of exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth of exports became a dominant source of industrial growth during the 1980s in most developing countries (see Helleiner, 1995). Most of these countries including China and India, have replaced the old import-substitution policy by an export promotion strategy. Both domestic and international factors played an important role in the shift of national policies to repay debts. The process of globalization already underway necessitated export orientation for improving technology, management practices, marketing and international competitiveness. This paper aims at exploring the contributions of exports and FDI to growth and economic liberalization in China and lndia. The first section briefly reviews similarities and differences in the two economies. The second section deals with growth, composition and direction of foreign trade. The third section examines the role of FDI, and its sources and composition by sector, industry, and by overseas ethnic Chinese and Indians. Trade and FDI linkages are examined in the fourth section which also contains a brief case study of Guangdong (China). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Changing Structure of the UK Economy: Implications for the Current Account

In common with other developed countries, the UK has seen the relative importance of the service sector grow, accounting for an ever greater share of employment and output — a trend that has accelerated over recent decades. At the same time, globalisation means that international trade is of increasing importance as a share of UK expenditure. With the traded goods sector dwindling in importance, what are the implications for the current account? This paper examines the changing structure of the UK economy and prospects for the current account. Although the current account is expected to remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, the size of the deficit is likely to remain manageable as growing surpluses from trade in services and investment income offset a widening goods deficit.     

Product market integration,wage dispersion and unemployment

International product market integration enhances both the export possibility of supplying to foreign markets and the import threat of foreign firms penetrating into domestic markets. These mechanisms affect labour markets since they amount to increased job mobility. At the same time heterogeneity may increase since it is unlikely that the opportunities and threats are uniformly distributed across different groups/sectors. In a Ricardian trade model admitting heterogeneity in the labour market, it is shown that lower trade frictions are associated with aggregate welfare gains, increased trade and specialization, but also more dispersion in wages. Structural labour market problems caused by union market power are reduced while those caused by minimum (reservation) wages are strengthened.