贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究回顾

20世纪90年代末,随着全球化的急剧推进,各国非熟练劳动力的收入日益恶化且收入差距也迅速扩大,使得贸易对收入分配的影响成为各国学者研究的热点。无论是传统的国际贸易理论,还是当代的新国际贸易理论对贸易是否会影响国内收入分配这一问题上一直充满争议。本文对贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究进行简单的回顾和归纳,并在分析现有研究成果的基础上指出今后这一问题的研究动向。     

改革个人所得税,增大调节收入分配的力度

一、改革个人所得税的理论支持 根据边际消费倾向递减规律，富人越富越有钱他的边际消费倾向越小，反之，穷人越穷，边际消费倾向越大。收入差距的过大使较大比重的社会财富沉淀在少数人手中，很多有消费欲望的人却无力购买，只好降低边际消费倾向，可见进行收入再分配缩短贫富差距对于刺激消费需求的重要意义。     

Fertility,income distribution,and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence

The authors perform discriminatory, empirical tests of a theoretical model that predicts that family size adversely affects output per capita and nonsteady state growth rates. Neoclassical models posit that adverse output and nonsteady growth rates are affected by labor force growth (LFG) or population growth (PG). This study tests whether family size (FS) will be more significant than LFG or PG in explaining differences in economic growth (EG) rates across countries during 1960-88. A proxy variable for the public education system was used to separate government interventions on human capital formation from market forces. Data were obtained for 73 countries, which exclude centrally planned economies, oil-producing countries, and those with less than 1 million population. The empirical test is run with 58-country, 45-country, and 96-country samples to test for robustness and reliability. The empirical test supports the theoretical model. It demonstrates that equal distribution of income and smaller FS enhance EG. With income inequality, the effect of FS was significant, and the effect of the LFG rate or PG rate was insignificant. With a given FS, LFG was positively correlated with EG. A reduction of the net fertility rate by one point would increase the worker output growth rate by 0.25%, and the differences in growth rates between high- and low-fertility countries would be 1%. An increase in the income share of the bottom 60% would increase the growth rate of worker output by about 1%. Higher investments in public or private education would be conducive to growth.     

资本的权力与资本收入的性质

经典作家们关于资本收入性质的分析无疑是正确的。但在今天讨论资本收入是不是剥削收入时,应结合新的历史条件和新的实际来做科学的回答。我们认为,不能把我国现实中存在的私人资本收入一概认定为剥削收入,应该具体情况具体分析。     

The rural labour market in the early nineteenth century: women's and children's employment, family income, and the 1834 Poor Law Report

This article revisits a familiar source–the 1834 Poor Law Report–to provide a fresh overview of the regional map of female and child labour in the early nineteenth–century countryside. Patterns of employment in domestic industry and agricultural labour (particularly haymaking, weeding, and harvesting) are investigated alongside labourers’ contributions to the annual family income. The results indicate that orthodox accounts of rural employment and wage patterns should not be accepted uncritically. Adopting an empirical approach to the qualitative evidence contained in the report offers a blueprint for future analysis of similar contemporary printed sources.     

Rank, income and income inequality in urban China

While some workers in China attain senior professional level and senior cadre level status (Chuzhang and above), others attain middle rank including middle rank of professional and cadre (Kezhang). This aspect of the Chinese labour force has attracted surprisingly little attention in the literature, a fact which this paper aims to rectify. We define various segments of the urban population in work-active ages and use data from the Chinese Income Project (CHIP) covering eastern, central and western China for 1995 and 2002. For 2002, persons of high rank make up 3% and persons of middle rank make up 14% of persons in work-active ages.Factors that affect a person's likelihood of having high or middle rank are investigated by estimating a multinomial probit model. We find that education, age and gender strongly affect the probability of being employed as a worker of high rank. There is relatively little income inequality among workers of high rank as well as among workers of middle rank. Mean income and household wealth per capita of highly-ranked workers developed more favorably than for other segments of the population studied, and personal income is more polarized by segment in 2002 than in 1995. Workers of high rank, and to a lesser degree, workers of middle rank, are among the winners in economic terms while the increasingly large category of non-workers is the losers. Rates of return to education have increased but income function analysis indicates that this provides only a partial explanation for the increased favorable income situation for workers of high and middle ranks.     

农民收入问题的国内外比较研究

作为三农问题的核心、要点和难点所在,我国农民收入长期处于相对低下的水平。虽然改革开放以来,我国农民收入实现了持续性增长,但仍然远低于城镇居民收入水平,与世界平均水平和发达国家水平相比仍有较大差距。文章考察了我国农民收入增长情况,并与部分发达国家(美国、欧盟、日本)和发展中国家(印度、印度尼西亚)等进行了比较分析。在此基础上,文章讨论了我国农民收入低下的主要原因,进而提出相应的对策和建议。     

Fertility,income distribution and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence: comments

In a recent paper, Galor and Zang attempt to explain the large observed cross-country disparities in the levels and growth rates of per capita output. Cross-country variation in family size and income distribution patterns are an important element of such an explanation. Galor and Zang support the arguments put forth in their paper by using a simple variation of the model published by Galor and Zeira in 1993 and 70 cross-sectional growth regressions in the style of Barro's 1991 work. Some points in Galor and Zang's recent work require clarification. The author therefore reviews their work with the goal of clarifying some of Galor and Zang's underlying assumptions which are not that clear in their paper. The aim is to give the reader an idea of what Galor and Zang's paper does and does not do.     

当前我国收入分配差距扩大的影响、成因及对策研究

我国居民的收入分配差距正在扩大,而且有继续扩大的趋势,这已经对我国的经济社会发展造成一定的负面影响。因此,必须采取各种有效措施,多管齐下,努力遏制贫富差距进一步扩大的势头,最终实现共同富裕、社会和谐稳定。     

关于中国劳动力工资、产业结构和收入差距的实证研究

本文基于GTAP模型,模拟了中国劳动力工资水平的外生上涨对社会贫富差距以及劳动密集型产业转移的影响。通过研究发现：非熟练劳动力密集型产业的普通工人工资的外生上涨无助于解决中国的收入差距问题,反而非熟练劳动力密集型产业在国际间的转移,会使中国有了更高的失业率,甚至有可能使收入差距扩大。     

A positive theory of optimal personal income distribution and growth

The core of this paper (in a microeconomic foundation on three levels—income generation, income spending, and social climate of the society) consists of a concave relationship between the (in) equality of personal income and the per capita growth rate. The results mentioned are derived in conjunction with a social welfare function which is bounded by the concave function. Furthermore, ample empirical evidence is shown for the suggestions made in this paper.     

净资产、剩余收益与股票定价:会计信息有用性的研究

本文在Ohlson(1995)提出的剩余收益模型的基础上,利用1996～2003年在上海和深圳两大证券交易所上市的A股公司的年度财务报表,对其中的每股净资产和每股收益与股票价格的相关性进行了详细的实证检验,可以看出会计信息越来越能真实反映公司的真实财务状况。     

On the microeconomic foundations of bank behaviour in macroeconomic models

Summary In this paper some microeconomic foundations of bank behaviour are analysed. Topics discussed are bank objective functions, competition and bank behaviour in the deposit and loan market, some static microeconomic bank models, and bank-customer relationships. It is investigated whether explicit consideration of some features of microeconomic bank behaviour affects the specification and interpretation of macroeconomic monetary sector models.I am grateful to H. Booy, J. van Daal, P. Korteweg, B. J. Kruimel, J. Ooms, R. E. Wessels and an anonymous referee for valuable remarks on earlier drafts. Responsibility for errors is mine.     

苏南、苏北收入差距与经济增长关系比较研究

基于江苏省1978～2009年经济增长率与收入差距面板数据,探讨了在不同经济发展水平下的收入差距与经济增长关系是否存在一致性问题。对江苏省收入差距与经济增长率数据经平滑处理后,运用江苏省、苏北、苏南通过面板协整分析,结果表明苏北地区的经济增长率与收入差距存在正相关的双向Granger因果关系,但是苏南地区的经济增长率与收入差距存在负相关的单向Granger因果关系。     

我国居民收入与资产价格关系的实证研究

居民收入与资产价格之间到底存在怎样的关系是理论界广泛关注的问题。在中国当前特殊情况下,房地产和股票分别是两大具有代表性的实体资产与虚拟资产。本文基于较大期限跨度的数据,使用Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,对居民收入和资产价格之间的关系进行实证研究。结论表明,居民收入提高不会导致实体资产价格上升,但会对虚拟资产价格产生一定的影响。基于此,现阶段国内要稳步发展房地产市场和股票市场,引导投资者合理投资,在提高居民收入时要注意促使居民扩大消费而不是追加投资。     

Perspectives on migration research: a review of theory,evidence, methodology and research priorities

The author presents a general review of migration and urbanization in developing countries     

我国房地产税收收入弹性的实证研究

<正> 一、房地产税收收入弹性及其现实意义 税收收入弹性是指税收收入对经济增长的反应程度,一般表示为税收收入的变化率和GDP变化率之比,公式表示为Et=△T/T/△Y/Y,其中T为税收收入总量,△T为税收收入的销量;Y代表GDP,△Y代表GDP的增量。经过20多年的改革和发展,我国房地产业已具相当规模,逐步成为先导性、基础性产业,在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位,与此同时,房地产提供的税收收入也呈逐年增长态势。研究房地产税收收入弹性,对于提高税收收入,规范房地产市场,更好地发挥税收的调节作用,实现国家宏     

MM理论及其在中国的适用性研究

美国经济学家莫迪格安尼和米勒于1958年发表的《资本成本、公司财务与投资理论》一文中，提出了最初的MM理论，开创了现代资本结构理论研究的先河。MM理论的基本假设有：①公司只有长期债券和普通股票，债券和股票均在完全的资本市场上交易，不存在交易成本；②投资者个人的借款利率与企业的借款利率相同且无负债风险；③同一风险类别假设，即经营条件相似的公司具有相同的经营风险；     

Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application

The paper revisits the relationship between GDP per capita and diversification, using classical and more recent trade theory. Three theoretical findings are presented: (i) competitive models yield predictions only for the extensive product margin; (ii) countries continuously diversify their production and exports—a major controversy in the empirical literature; and (iii) causality runs from diversification to GDP per capita, and not the other way around. The theoretical analysis also provides indication for the appropriateness of alternative measures of diversification, and enables estimating the relationship to economic development in a gravity-type parametric specification. Using detailed data on countries’ exports, the case of re-specialization is rejected. Inference of causality reveals some evidence for GDP per capita affecting the level of diversification, but stronger support for diversification affecting GDP per capita. Generally, both variables are highly endogenous as they are both driven by the technology parameters in standard models of economic growth and international trade.     

Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.