利率、魏克赛尔累积过程与资产价格

通货膨胀目标制的理论基础直接来源于魏克赛尔的累积过程理论。央行的利率政策不但会影响一般价格的上涨,而且会导致资产价格出现泡沫。现时的房产价格与未来的产出和通货膨胀关系密切,应该在CPI中给予一定的权重。低利率、低通胀和资产价格膨胀共存并不意味着累积过程理论失效,而是因为其反馈机制和通胀度量出现了问题。     

Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade*

This paper provides a survey of a range of issues involved in the analysis of primary commodity prices and the terms of trade. Particular emphasis is placed upon the long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures and the paper presents some new evidence regarding the long-run behaviour of Australia's terms of trade.     

Budget Deficits Expected Inflation and Short-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence for the U.S.

This paper examines a number of issues concerning the determination of short-term real interest rates. We include actual inflation and several measures of expected inflation in order to determine whether empirical results are sensitive to the choice of the inflation variable. The results strongly suggest that the estimated coefficients are unaffected by the choice of the interest rate variable and, implicitly, the inflation variable. Deficits are not found to have a positive effect on all measures of the dependent variable, while increases in the real money supply and the inflation variables depress real interest rates. [311]     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation—a variable degree of asset market segmentation.     

汇率、利率、税率：名义和实际

当前我国经济运行情况以及面临的问题 过去的一年里,我国经济保持了稳定增长的态势,在全球经济特别是关、日和欧三大经济体同时陷入衰退的情况下,2001年我国国内生产总值达到95800多亿元,同比增长率为7．3％。更令人感到鼓舞的是,中国在2001年加入WTO,正式成为世界贸易组织的一员,中国的对外开放进入了一个新的阶段。 但在成功数字的外表下,我们还应该看到中国经济的一些问题以及在2002年可能遇到或者已经遇到的一些难题。2001年中国经济增长前高后低,四个季度的经济增长一路滑坡,前3个季度的增长速度分别是8．1％、7．8％和7％,第4季度GDP增长也很难达到7％,11月份居民消费价格总水平比去年同月下降3％,又面临通货紧缩的威胁。2001年的经济增长,主要是由国内投资和消费需求的增长拉动的。由于国际经济严重衰退,一方面,我国出口增速下降,大约在6％左右,净出口减少,对经济增长的贡献度为负值;另一方面,促使外资流入加快,实际利用外资增长近20％,减弱了出口下降的影响。……     

新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构:改革与启示

中国是世界上最大的新兴市场国家之一,研究新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构改革与发展的经验和教训,能够为中国提供有益的启示。本主要探讨新兴市场的公众公司财务报告架构及其改革问题,并在此基础上概括和总结来自新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构及其改革方面的启示。     

中美股市的联动性分析及预测

在金融危机背景下,我国股市表现出与美国股市趋同的表象,但这是否意味着两国股市就存在长期联动性?本文针对这一问题选取金融危机期间沪深300指数和标准普尔500指数进行实证分析,得出:全球金融危机期间,美国股市对中国股市有单方向影响,并且影响有一定持续性,而反之则不然,但长期看来,两国股市不存在协整关系。最后,本文探究了中美股市不存在协整关系的关键原因是两指数所代表的经济实体存在的实质性差异造成的,并提出相关政策建议与预测。     

Partnerships, Buy-Out Options and Investment in Emerging Markets

Asymmetric information and fear of acquiring a lemon may explain the paucity of foreign investment in emerging market economies. If investors are uncertain about the profitability of investments, intrinsically inefficient, temporary partnerships or joint ventures may serve as mechanisms through which information is transmitted. Temporary partnerships with joint investments by the domestic firm and the investor, together with a buy-out option to the investor, may sometimes separate good and bad investment prospects in equilibrium. However, separating equilibria may fail to exist. Implications for foreign direct investment are traced and briefly related to the experience of transition economies.
JEL classification: D 8; F 2; L 14; O 12     

金融自由化、非对称调整与新兴市场的金融危机

二战后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。     

Exchange Rates, Market Structure, Prices and Imports*

Eighteen months after sizable declines in the US and Australian dollars in 1985, the trade accounts of both countries showed little improvement In some markets import prices failed to decline as expected Was this due to normal lags, or are there markets where exchange rate responses are limited? This paper analyzes the impact of firm behaviour and market structure on the sensitivity of import markets to exchange rate changes.     

美国金融监管改革法案及其对中国的启示

2010年7月,美国出台了意在重塑其金融监管体系、重振其金融竞争力的金融监管改革法案,这将是影响全球金融体系重构的重要变革。该法案对美国金融业和监管架构及全球金融监管改革方向都将产生深远影响。该法案对中国金融监管的启示是:应寻求金融监管与市场力量的动态平衡,在重视防范系统性金融风险的同时,构建宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管相结合的监管体系,加强对金融消费者的保护,并以客观审慎的态度开展金融综合经营。     

美国次级房贷危机对中国的影响和应对策略

次贷危机是从2006年春季开始逐步显现的,2007年8月起席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场。美国爆发金融危机具有必然性。此次危机在新兴市场上产生的是放大效应,这场危机对中国的影响主要有三个方面。美国华尔街金融危机给我们带来的启示是多方面的,全球化的加剧与当前的国际货币体系是导致金融危机频发的根本原因,中国存在着潜在的金融危机。文章从六个方面提出维护中国金融安全的对策。     

量化宽松、流动性溢出与新兴市场通货膨胀

全球金融危机愈演愈烈,各国政府使出浑身解数以刺激经济回暖,随着短期利率接近于零,常规货币政策几近失效之时,美、英等发达国家试图通过量化宽松货币政策的实施刺激国内私人部门消费和投资的增长。当国内实体经济无法容纳这部分过剩的流动性时,必然导致流动性溢出,大量国际资本涌入大宗商品市场和新兴市场,催生资产泡沫,给新兴市场国家造成通胀的压力。本文通过新近发展的面板VAR模型分析了量化宽松政策的流动性溢出效应及其对金砖国家物价的影响。