发展中国家金融化与中国的抵御探索

本文尝试在发展模式与外部经济依赖性相互作用的分析框架内来分析中国经济从抵御金融化到出现金融化趋势的过程。本文认为发展中国家金融化和频繁的债务金融危机源自本国发展模式与外部经济依赖性相互作用下金融扩张与生产性积累的背离。对于中国而言,在政府有效的产业政策和渐进的金融政策引导下形成的工业化主导的发展模式,能够不断解决经济发展矛盾,同时完备的工业体系和谨慎的金融开放政策减轻了中国对世界经济体系的依赖,使其得以抵御金融化和危机。但2008年全球金融危机后,中国发展模式面临新的矛盾并且对外部经济依赖性逐渐增强,出现了经济金融化的趋势,将对中国经济和金融体系的稳定性带来巨大的挑战。中国政府已经意识到金融化风险,在近年来出台了一系列政策,以期引导资金“脱虚向实”,并取得了一些成效,但金融化风险尚未根除,中国经济未来的发展仍需要政府制定行之有效的政策积极引导金融和实体经济的协调发展。     

风险投资驱动企业“脱虚向实”了吗

近年来，企业金融化现象在学术界备受关注。国内外研究表明，风险投资对企业投资和企业创新均具有积极影响，那么风险投资能否影响企业金融投资行为？以2009—2019年沪深两市首次公开发行的A股上市公司为研究样本，实证分析风险投资对企业金融化的影响。结果表明：风险投资对企业金融化具有显著抑制作用，且这种抑制作用存在异质性。具体而言，风险投资对企业金融化的抑制效应主要体现在制造企业、盈利能力较弱企业、非国有企业以及东部区域企业中。同时，机构投资者持股比例越高，风险投资对企业金融化的抑制作用越强。机制分析结果表明，风险投资通过促进企业实体投资抑制企业金融化。进一步分析发现，风险投资能够缓解被投企业融资约束，而融资约束的改善并未促进企业金融化，而是促进企业创新。结论可丰富风险投资与企业金融化相关领域研究，证明风险投资能够驱动实体企业“脱虚向实”，对政府发展多层次资本市场，引导金融回归实体具有一定的参考价值。     

Stock Market Capitalism: Welfare Capitalism: Japan and Germany versus the Anglo-Saxons

The financial sector has acquired great prominence in most developed economies. Some authors argue that the growth of finance is at the root of the financial and economic difficulties of the past decade. This article aims to analyze this claim by looking at financialization in the European periphery, focusing on the Portuguese case. The emergence of this phenomenon is contextualized from a historical, economic and international perspective. Based on the analysis of several indicators, the article concludes that the Portuguese economy exhibits symptoms of financialization that are typically found in Southern European countries and that these differ significantly from the patterns characterizing financialization processes in more advanced economies. The article discusses how the increasing importance of financial actors and motives in the Portuguese economy played a decisive role in the emergence of the crisis.     

金融化有助于企业研发投入吗

基于我国“脱实向虚”的经济现状,以我国深圳证券交易所中小企业板上市的高新技术企业为样本,研究企业金融化对研发投入的影响。结果发现：高新技术中小企业金融化程度越高,研发投入越多;相比于国有产权、金融发展水平较高地区,民营产权、金融发展水平较低地区的高新技术中小企业金融化更加有助于其研发投入;金融化对高新技术中小企业研究阶段支出有促进作用,而对开发阶段支出有挤占效应。     

Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.     

中国居民收入差距的演变——基于金融深化视角的实证研究

对中国金融发展与收入差距的关系进行分析发现：（1）中国居民收入差距与金融深化进程遵循倒“U”曲线的演化路径;（2）我国金融深化与收入差距之间存在着扩大的库兹涅茨效应。对此考察后,我们认为：随着金融的发展和现代部门在经济中比重的提高,政府在利用金融体系调控经济中的政策倾向在一定程度上诱导了这一现象的发生。同时,我们预计我国居民收入差距呈扩大趋势并将延续一段时期。     

Financial development and relationship evolvement among money supply,economic growth and inflation: a comparative study from the U.S. and China

With the rapid development of financial markets, economic financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship among money supply, economic growth and inflation. Combined with the horizontal comparison of China, this article concentrates on the financial development and evolution from the period of industrialization to economic financialization in the U.S., systematic and comprehensive analysis is first done on the variation of overall economic operation. Then impulse response function based on VAR model is applied to study the dynamic influence of economic financialization degree on the relationship evolvement. The empirical results show that economic financialization makes good explanation of the deviating phenomenon among money supply, economic growth and inflation, and the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, compared to the U.S., China still belongs to the process of transforming from the period of industrialization to economic financialization.     

经济金融化行为的政治经济学分析--一个演化博弈框架

自2008年美国金融危机发生以来,经济金融化成为国内外学界关注的焦点。文章从政治经济学的角度指出了金融化的本质在于资本积累演变为资本脱离剩余价值的生产与交换而通过金融系统实现增殖的过程,进而通过构建一个包含异质性主体的非对称演化博弈模型,揭示了非金融主体与金融主体之间从普通经济关系到金融关系的动态演变过程及其作用机制。研究表明：(1)经济主体之间的动态关系演变表现为非金融企业主要通过金融活动获取利润,金融企业则关注中间业务和表外业务并将普通家庭纳入其体系使之成为新的利润源泉,而普通家庭则被迫接受强势经济主体的二次分利,这些关系的变化将导致一国经济的金融化乃至金融危机。(2)经济发展状态取决于金融主体与非金融主体之间的相互关系,其中,非金融主体行为起主导性作用。在既定假设下,当非金融主体仅通过其资源保护行为影响金融主体的分利技术时,既可以促使一国经济走向新的稳定状态也可促使其走向崩溃;当非金融主体通过其资源保护行为和分利技术影响金融主体的分利技术时,经济可以实现演化稳定状态。(3)经济主体的金融化行为有三个层面的影响：一是经济主体的金融化行为促进经济主体自身在短期内实现高额资本积累;二是金融主体的分利行为与非金融主体的生产行为经常呈现对立的经济关系并容易被激化;三是没有政府介入的自由市场必然导致矛盾激化而陷入危机。因此,深入理解经济金融化问题的本质及其对经济的影响机制,对当前中国的经济转型和金融改革都具有重要意义。     

Finance,energy and the decoupling: an empirical study

This paper investigates the empirical and theoretical basis of the decoupling between energy throughput and economic growth, with a critical view of the use of the decoupling concept as a policy priority. We provide an analysis of the historical trends of the metabolic pattern of European economies over a period of 18 years focusing on the changes in energy throughput and financial assets. The results show that energy consumption per hour of labor has remained constant, suggesting that no significant changes in production processes or technology have taken place in the productive sectors of the economy. The contribution of this paper is to establish a bridge between the economic analysis of financialization and the societal metabolism analysis of the economic process from a biophysical point of view. We argue that this bridge is crucial to draw attention to the biophysical consequences of financialization (a relative decoupling) and critically assess the pertinence of policies aimed at encouraging the decoupling in the context of increasing inequality.     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

The Coevolution of Finance and Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies

The transition from communism to capitalism was necessarily accompanied by a sudden and abrupt increase in the financialization of society. This increase occurred in an environment that, even now, still has little experience with or expertise in financialization. Given that financialization occurred simultaneously with the growth and evolution of other political and economic institutions, the question arises: What was the effect on these other nascent institutions like property rights? This article empirically analyzes the relationship between financialization and property rights in transition countries. Using a unique monthly database of twenty transition countries over a period from 1989 to 2012, this article finds that the influence of financialization depends on which definition of “financialization” is used. In particular, increases in basic financial intermediation improved property rights. However, higher-order “financialization,” proxied here by the size of capital markets and the wages in the financial sector, appeared to have a negative impact on the development of broad-based property rights in transition.     

Production interdependencies and poverty reduction across ethnic groups in Malaysia

Production sectors are interdependent and the benefits of output growth for poverty reduction therefore spread over the economy. The role of such interdependencies is explicitly studied in this paper. A social accounting matrix for Malaysia that distinguishes between the major ethnic groups in Malaysia (Malays, Chinese, and Indians) is used to run the analyses. Interdependencies among production sectors are measured by splitting the total output effect into the initial, direct and indirect effects. The results show that sectors which have large (small) spillover effects are associated with lower (higher) poverty reduction. The best way to increase the income of poor workers in a sector, generally is to stimulate that sector rather than other sectors.     

Oil price shock and informal workers in dual labor markets

This paper examines the impact of a rise in oil prices on the wages of workers in the unorganized sector of a developing economy. The model economy is comprised of two non-traded transport sectors, formal and informal, along with other sectors. The main results that we obtain are as follows. The informal transport sector contracts when fuel price rises and lowers the real income of the informal workers. The per-unit return to land rises, and the factor readjustments even raise the output of other sectors in the economy. We also show why inclusion of non-passenger transport services does not alter the main outcomes of the model.     

The Federal Budget and Social Reconstruction

Automakers are facing a growing process of financialization that can be characterized by the preference to value capital through financial activities as more profitable than by productive activities. The aim of this article is to study the financialization of the automotive industry by analyzing the five largest automakers in the world: Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, General Motors (GM) and Ford. The profitability of financial activities was compared to that of productive activities; shareholder structure; share acquisitions; origin of top managers; compensation to executives; employee salaries; dividend payments to shareholders and employment. The results showed that increasingly more financial activities are fundamental to businesses dominated by major shareholders. Dividend payments have shown compliance to shareholder value maximization principles. Compensation to executives has shown that there is a layer of highly paid top managers, while in the workforce, salaries are below the average of the countries in which the automakers operate. The proportion of times that a CEO’s earnings outweigh the average earnings of less skilled workers is hundreds of times. Employment has been changing, with significant increases in China, for instance. This article aims to improve the knowledge of this important sector of world industry and contribute to development of economic sociology.     

A tale of two states: Maharashtra and West Bengal

In this paper we study the decline of West Bengal relative to Maharashtra, historically two of the most important states of India. In 1960, West Bengal's per capita income exceeded that of Maharashtra, the third richest state at the time. By 1993, it had fallen to just 69 percent of Maharashtra's per capita income. We employ a “wedge” methodology based on the first order conditions of a multi-sector neoclassical growth model to ascertain the output and factor market sources of the divergent economic performances. Our diagnostic analysis reveals that a large part of West Bengal's development woes can be attributed to: (a) low sectoral productivity, especially in manufacturing and services; and (b) sectoral misallocation in labor markets between the manufacturing sector and the other sectors of the economy. We also present evidence on the labor market, the manufacturing sector, and public infrastructure that suggest a systematic worsening of the business environment in West Bengal during this period.     

技术市场发展、实体企业金融化与创新质量

以2005—2020年中国A股上市企业为样本，实证研究实体企业金融化对创新质量的影响效应和机制，重点关注技术市场发展对上述影响效应和机制的调节作用。结果表明，实体企业金融化对创新质量具有负向影响效应，技术市场发展能够强化这一影响效应，在技术市场发展较快的地区，实体企业金融化对创新质量的负向影响效应更加显著，融资约束和全要素生产率是实体企业金融化影响企业创新质量的有效机制；技术市场发展的调节效应主要作用于影响机制的前半路径，在技术市场发展较快的地区，实体企业金融化对融资约束的缓解效应较弱，对全要素生产率的负向影响效应更强；实体企业金融化对创新质量的影响效应在产品市场竞争、是否为家族企业和银企关系方面存在异质性，当产品市场竞争更激烈、银企关系较差和企业为非家族企业时，实体企业金融化对创新质量的负向影响更显著。     

银行业竞争加剧还是抑制了企业金融化

银行业竞争与企业金融化有多种关联机制,既可能加剧企业金融化,也可能抑制企业金融化。本文利用2007—2019年沪深两市A股非金融类上市公司的面板数据,考察了二者之间的关系。结果发现：（1）竞争性的银行业市场结构抑制了企业金融化。（2）银行业竞争不仅缓解了债务成本对企业利润的侵蚀,有助于缩小金融行业与实体企业之间的利润率差距,进而抑制企业利润追逐动机的金融化行为,而且通过引导信贷资源配置促进了企业创新,从而对实体企业金融投资产生挤出效应;此外,银行业竞争还通过促使银行积极发挥信息监督作用,抑制了企业内部人金融投机套利的机会主义行为。（3）银行业竞争对企业金融化的抑制效应在非国有企业、中小企业以及市场化水平较低地区的企业中更为显著。这些结果说明,提高银行业竞争水平有助于抑制企业金融化趋势,扭转经济“脱实向虚”的局面。     

International trade,foreign direct investments,and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper measures the contribution of firms in the financial and non-financial sectors to systemic risk. We quantify systemic risk as possible risk spillovers from individual firms to the economy by taking into account time-varying linkages between the firm and the economy. Based on a novel dataset that combines data on international trade and foreign direct investments with daily stock data for 67 Dutch listed companies from 2006–2015, our results indicate that high systemic risk contributions are not only present in the financial sector, but also occur in other sectors of the economy. We find that firms within the financial sector are more capable than non-financial firms of reverting to their pre-financial crisis level of systemic risk contribution. Having examined the potential role globalization fulfills in determining systemic risk, we find two main opposing effects. First, firms in internationally trade-intensive sectors contribute less to systemic risk than firms in sectors with low trade intensity. Second, systemic risk rises when firms are engaged in foreign direct investment activity, suggesting that international networks and global supply chains contribute to systemic risk propagation. Our empirical results imply that macro-prudential policy aimed at monitoring systemic risk should be extended to non-financial sectors and should take into consideration globalization measures, such as foreign direct investments and global supply chains.     

次贷危机后美国经济金融化趋势是否逆转?

20世纪70年代以来资本主义经济金融化趋势显著,以金融资本为主导的积累模式在一定时期内刺激了资本主义经济增长,但也为由美国次贷危机引发的2008年国际金融危机埋下了祸根.而今,距离危机的爆发已经十余年,危机后当代资本主义也经历了一系列调整.本文考察了危机后美国政府的系列"再工业化"政策、新自由主义持续强劲的势头、新形势...     

Inequality and growth: the perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy

The explosion generated by the global financial crisis in 2008 and its transmission to the real economies have been interpreted as calling for new kinds of regulation of the banking and the financial systems that would have allowed re-establishing a virtuous relation between the real and the financial sectors of the economy. In this paper we maintain a different view, that the financial crisis and the ensuing real crisis have roots in the strong increase in income inequality that has been taking place in the Western world in the last thirty years or so. This has created an all around aggregate demand deficiency crisis that has strongly reduced prospects and opportunities for investments in productive capacities and shifted resources toward other uses, thus feeding a perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy. In this context the way out of the crisis is re-establishing the right distributive conditions, which cannot be obtained by a policy aimed at relieving the weight of private or public debts but calls for a redistribution through taxes on the incomes of non-productive sectors, a fine tuning that should prevent excessive taxations transforming positive into negative effects.