社会信用与经济增长

一、良好的信用能促进经济增长和社会发展 最近全国都在谈论信用问题,企业界、学术界、政府、团体都在谈这个问题.为什么那么重要?大家看一看,由于诚信问题造成的损失有多大.最近我看了有位经济学家算了一笔帐,由于欠款,赖帐,由于假冒伪劣,由于不能按时交货,或者交货不付款,由于三角债等,这些直接造成的损失巨大,间接损失那就更大.有许多的生意人愿意跟外国人打交道,不敢与国内打交道,本国的市场太不可靠了,这样做生意的范围就变小了;还有因为各种不信用造成的各种法律纠纷,人事纠纷也都是花钱的,我估计整个的损失加起来相当我们国民生产总值的10%.换句话讲,我们有10%的财富,由于诚信上出问题给浪费掉了.如果我们在诚信上解决问题,我们就可以增加10%经济增长率,我们不用多劳动,不用多干活,10%就出来了.我们现在经济增长只有百分之几,如果我们讲好诚信,就有百分之十几的增长.这就说明诚信问题在经济增长中是举足轻重的因素.     

Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between financial market development and economic development in Belgium. We use a new data set of stock market development indicators to argue that financial market development substantially affected economic growth. We find strong evidence that stock market development caused economic growth in Belgium, especially in the period between 1873 and 1935. Institutional changes affecting the stock exchange explain the time-varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth.     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

谈谈政府信用与地方经济发展

对处于同一平台的各级政府而言，要在国际国内竞争中取胜，就必须进行政府层面的立体创新，彻底改变计划经济体制下开成的行政型、经验型、粗放型管理模式，使之真正向市场化、知识化、集约化方向发展，实现政府综合管理体系的现代化、树立诚信政府的形象，惟此才能有效促进地方经济发展。     

Asset market hangovers and economic growth: the OECD during 1984-93

Asses prices and investment were unusually weak throughout theindustrial world during the early 1990s. This paper highlightsthis stylized fact, and connects it with another: in most ofthe industrial world, asset markets boomed for several yearsbefore collapsing around 1989. The paper suggests that assetmarket bubbles during the late 1980s may have left the industrialworld with an 'asset market hangover' in the early 1990s, inthe form of sluggish asset markets and investment. Empiricalsupport for this hypothesis is provided based on cross-countrydata for equity and real estate markets in most industrial countries.We suggest that financial market developments not justifiedby fundamentals can substantially affect real activity.     

Goods Inflation,Asset Inflation,and the Greatest Peacetime Inflation in the US

In every episode of global monetary inflation originating in the Federal Reserve, we find both asset price inflation and goods inflation. The interrelationship between these two types of inflation depends both on cycle-specific factors and more general factors which transcend the cycle and stem from essential aspects of monetary disorder. The purpose of this article is to analyse the nature of this interrelationship and elaborate on the concepts of monetary disorder, goods inflation, and asset inflation. In today’s world of monetary systems where there is no stable demand for high-powered money (which itself is no longer a highly distinct asset) monetary disorder can be hard to recognize until quite late in the inflationary process. Asset price inflation now has a popular meaning quite different from the original found in Austrian business cycle theory. Two decades of widespread inflation targeting at around 2% per annum have encouraged us to ignore an old lesson. In a well-functioning capitalist economy under a sound money order, prices would fluctuate considerably upwards and downwards with a tendency to revert to the mean over the very long run. Finally the principles and hypotheses developed here are analysed in the laboratory of history, specifically for the greatest peacetime inflation in the U.S. (1963–80).     

International trade and economic convergence: the credit channel

In this paper, we examine a particular mechanism by which internationaltrade accelerates economic convergence. We develop a model ofgrowth under credit constraints in which international tradeexpands access to credit. We show in numerical simulations thatreasonable values for openness generate convergence rates thatmatch well the empirical estimates. We econometrically investigatea key prediction of the model - that more open economies exhibitgreater debt to output ratios - and find substantial supportin the data for this claim. This remains true even when we controlfor a host of additional factors and conduct robustness checks.     

Education, training, and economic growth

Ashton, D. and Green, F. 1996: EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £18.95 paper, £55.00 cased.

Booth, A. and Snower, J. (eds) 1996: ACQUIRING SKILLS: MARKET FAILURES, THEIR SYMPTOMS AND POLICY RESPONSES. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, £15.95 paper, £45.00 cased.

Deakin, B. 1996: THE YOUTH LABOUR MARKET IN BRITAIN: THE ROLE OF INTERVENTION. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, £35.00 cased.

Godfrey, M. (ed) 1997: SKILL DEVELOPMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £59.95 cased.

Shackleton, J. with Clarke, L, Lange, T. and Walsh, S. 1995: TRAINING FOR EMPLOYMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £55.00 cased.     

Prices,incentives, and economic growth

Zusammenfassung Preise, Anreize und wirtschaftliches Wachstum. - In dem Artikel wird untersucht, wie sich politikbedingte Verzerrungen auf die Effizienz der Ressourcenallokation und das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in entwickelten, unterentwickelten und sozialistischen L?ndern auswirken. Eingriffe in die Güterm?rkte k?nnen in Form der Importprotektion, Preiskontrollen und Wettbewerbsbeschr?nkungen erfolgen. Auf den Arbeitsm?rkten verzerren die Arbeitslosenunterstützung, die Kündigungsschutzabkommen, die Sozialversicherungsleistungen und die Lohnsteuer das Arbeitsangebot, w?hrend Mindestlohngesetze und Sozialversicherungsbeitr?ge auf die Nachfrage nach Arbeit einwirken. SchlieΒlich sind Zinssatzverordnungen, K?rperschaftssteuern und Einfuhrbeschr?nkungen die haupts?chlichen Eingriffe in die Kapitalm?rkte. Nach der Betrachtung der wirtschaftlichen Wirkungen dieser Interventionen werden Vorschl?ge gemacht, wie die Verzerrungen beseitigt oder gemildert werden k?nnen.

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Résumé Prix, incitations et croissance économique. - Cet article examine les effets des distorsions imposées par la politique sur 1’ efficacité de l’allocation des ressources et sur la croissance économique dans les pays développés, développants et socialistes. Les interventions sur les marchés de biens peuvent consister de la protection d’importation, des contróles des prix et des freins á la concurrence. Parmi les distorsions sur les marchés du travail, l’allocation de chómage, la protection contre le licenciement, les prestations de sécurité sociale et les impóts sur les salaires affectent l’offre du travail pendant que le salaire minimum et des cotisations d’assurance sociale chargent la demande du travail. Finalement, les régulations des taux d’intérét, les impóts sur les sociétés, et la protection d’importation sont les interventions principales sur les marchés des capitaux. Après une revue des effets économiques de ces interventions, l’auteur donne des recommandations á éliminer ou relacher les distorsions.

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Resumen Precios, incentivos y crecimiento economico. - Este trabajo trata los efectos que tienen las distorsiones creadas por la politica económica sobre la eficiencia de la asignación de recursos y el crecimiento economico en los pafses desarrollados, en vias de desarrallo y socialistas. Las intervenciones en los mercados de bienes pueden manifestarse como restricciones a las importaciones, controles de precios y limites a la competencia. Entre las distorsiones de los mercados laborales, la compensación por desempleo, la reglamentación sobre la seguridad de las plazas de trabajo, los beneficios de la prevision social y los impuestos a los salarios afectan la oferta de trabajo, mientras que la reglamentación del salario mfnimo y los descuentos para la previsión social inciden en la demanda de trabajo. Finalmente, la regulaci?n de la tasa de interés, los impuestos a las empresas y la restriction a las importaciones constituyen las principales formas de interventión en los mercados de capital. Después de pasar revista a las consecuencias económicas de dichas intervenciones, este trabajo présenta recomendaciones para corregir o aliviar las distorsiones résultantes.

     

诚信与市场经济的内在关系探析

随着我国社会主义市场经济的蓬勃发展,市场经济既是法制经济,也是道德经济的观念已深入人心。在我国浩瀚的传统道德资源中,诚信思想博大精深。能否深刻认识诚信与市场经济的内在关系,是直接关系到我们能否适应市场经济发展的要求,推动我国社会主义市场经济发展的重大问题。一、     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

日本信贷市场的"羊群效应"

对于日本银行业的放贷是否存在羊群效应，已经有很多理论解释，但很少是通过计量的方法对这一现象进行分析。本文通过分析日本银行业贷款的相关数据，用时间序列分析的方法，建立了统计模型，来研究日本信贷市场上存在的羊群效应。     

Nonequilibrium prices and economic market flexibility

This paper describes an approach to estimating an equilibrium wage and an equilibrium rate of return with subsequent identification of their distortions when actual values of macrofactor prices are formed. The relation of the process of distortion of equilibrium prices to Walras’ Law is demonstrated. The concept of nonequilibrium prices is generalized from three markets: labor, capital, and institutional. The notion of economic market flexibility is introduced and its role in achieving economic equilibrium is ascertained. A technique for determining the “natural” rate of unemployment is proposed. All the methods are validated using the United States, Britain, and Russia as examples.     

资本市场自由化、经济发展与中国经济外交

经济全球化最受争议的一个问题是资本市场自由化,其中包括外国直接投资规制措施和短期资本流动规制措施的自由化。虽然大部分外国直接投资能够促进经济发展,但是,包含投机性热钱在内的短期资本流动,带来的是虚假经济繁荣。资本市场自由化会加剧顺经济周期的短期资本流动,带来消费的急剧波动,造成宏观经济动荡,阻碍经济增长,不利于经济发展。中国在国际金融领域的经济外交,应该加强资本控制,抑制短期资本投机活动;适时推进货币整合进程,分散短期资本流动带来的金融风险;推动国际经济治理民主化,公平分担短期资本冲击的代价。     

The pastoral boom,the rural land market,and long swings in New Zealand economic growth, 1873–19391

Higher farm and manufacturing productivity associated with refrigerated exports led to New Zealand's attainment of the world's highest Human Development Index in 1913. Local responses to export opportunities increased the social depth of land ownership and fostered intensive growth. Closer settlement meant that land‐related income gains spread widely, but land market volatility also created instability. New Zealand had the world's highest GDP per capita in 1938, but it experienced long swings in its growth rates. Dramatic swings in rural land market activity engendered by the pastoral boom contributed greatly to a long depression in the 1920s; subsequently a new monetary regime facilitated fast recovery.     

Human capital,trade, and economic growth

Human Capital, Trade, and Economic Growth. — Human capital, because of its special role in innovative activity and technological progress, has formed the bedrock of the new theories of endogenous growth. However, it not only serves as an engine of growth but also as a productive input along with labor and physical capital. In this study, the authors find evidence of the importance of both roles of human capital. They also find that the relationship between growth and the external effects of human capital vary according to trade regime. When literacy rates are relatively high, open economies grow about 0.65 to 1.75 percentage points more than closed economies.     

教育、人力资本与经济增长

本文从人力资本开发的角度对HPAES的经济增长进行了理论与计量分析,认为HPAES地区较高的人力资本水平对其经济增长起到较强的促进作用,而且政府在促进教育发展和人力资本形成的过程中扮演了重要角色.与此同时,也不能忽视HPAES地区人力资本开发现状与其经济发展要求之间还存在着一定的差距.     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.