Trade,technology, and China's rising skill demand1

China has experienced rising wage inequality due to rising relative demand for skilled labour. In this paper, we use a sample of 1,500 firms to investigate the impact of trade and technology on China's rising skill demand. We find that export expansion had a negative direct effect (Heckscher–Ohlin type) and a positive indirect effect (export‐induced skill‐biased technical change) on skill demand; the net effect was found positive and accounted for 5 percent of rising skill demand of the sample firms. We find that technical change in Chinese firms was on average skill‐neutral, but majority foreign‐owned firms experienced skill‐biased technical progress that accounted for 22 percent of the rising skill demand of the sample firms.     

Directed Technical Change

For many problems in macroeconomics, development economics, labour economics, and international trade, whether technical change is biased towards particular factors is of central importance. This paper develops a simple framework to analyse the forces that shape these biases. There are two major forces affecting equilibrium bias: the price effect and the market size effect. While the former encourages innovations directed at scarce factors, the latter leads to technical change favouring abundant factors. The elasticity of substitution between different factors regulates how powerful these effects are, determining how technical change and factor prices respond to changes in relative supplies. If the elasticity of substitution is sufficiently large, the long run relative demand for a factor can slope up.
I apply this framework to develop possible explanations to the following questions: why technical change over the past 60 years was skill biased, and why the skill bias may have accelerated over the past 25 years? Why new technologies introduced during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were unskill biased? What is the effect of biased technical change on the income gap between rich and poor countries? Does international trade affect the skill bias of technical change? What are the implications of wage push for technical change? Why is technical change generally labour augmenting rather than capital augmenting?     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON SKILL SHORTAGES AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN NEW ZEALAND*

Qualification and occupation‐based measures of skilled labour are constructed to explain the skill premium – the wage of skilled labour relative to unskilled labour in New Zealand. The data exhibit a more rapid growth in the supply of skilled labour than the skill premium, and a very large increase in the real minimum wage over the period from 1986 to 2005. We estimate the rate of increase in the relative demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution. The data are consistent with skill shortages and a skill‐bias technical change. We examine the effects of the minimum wage, capital complementarity, and the exchange rate on the skill premium. We also test whether the demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution varied across industries and over time.     

ESTIMATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMMIGRANT AND NATIVE WORKERS IN AUSTRALIA: A PRODUCTION THEORY APPROACH

The impact of immigration on labour markets depends, among other factors, on the substitutability or complementarity between immigrants and natives. This relationship is examined by treating migrant and native labour, along with capital, as inputs in production process. Estimated price elasticities of substitution between immigrants and native labour suggest that in Australian context, an increase in the wage rate of one group of workers leads to an increased demand for the other. The estimated elasticities of substitution between immigrant and native workers and the complementary relationship between immigrants and capital provide an insight into the complex effects of immigration.     

We Can Work It Out: The Impact of Technological Change on the Demand for Low-Skill Workers

There is little doubt that technology has had the most profound effect on altering the tasks that we humans do in our jobs. Economists have long speculated on how technical change affects both the absolute demand for labour as a whole and the relative demands for different types of labour. In recent years, the idea of skill‐biased technical change has become the consensus view about the current impact of technology on labour demand, namely that technical change leads to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labour painting a bleak future for the employment prospects of less‐skilled workers. But, drawing on a recent paper by Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003) about the impact of technology on the demand for different types of skills, this paper argues that the demand in the least‐skilled jobs may be growing. But, it is argued that employment of the less‐skilled is increasingly dependent on physical proximity to the more‐skilled and may also be vulnerable in the long‐run to further technological developments.     

International trade,technological change and wage inequality in the UK economy

This paper examines the joint impact of international trade and technological change on UK wages across different skill groups. International trade is measured as changes in product prices and technological change as total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We take account of a multi-sector and multi-factor of production economy and use mandated wage methodology in order to create an well-balanced approach in terms of theoretical and empirical cohesion. We use data from the EU KLEMS database and analyse the impact of both product price changes and TFP changes of 11 UK manufacturing sectors on factor rewards of high-, medium- and low-skilled workers. Results show that real wages of skill groups are significantly driven by the sector bias of price change and TFP growth of several sectors of production. Furthermore, we estimate the share of the three different skill groups on added value for each year from 1970 to 2005. The shares indicate structural change in the UK economy. Results show a structural change owing to decreasing shares of low-skilled workers and increasing shares of medium-skilled and high-skilled workers over the years.     

Labour substitution and complementarity among age–sex groups

We measure substitution in production for major age-sex groups in ten industries. These estimates are important for productivity studies, for modelling derives demand for labour and for formulating policies that deal with anticipated trends in the age-sex composition of the labour force. We use Sato's two-level CES production to estimate Hicks partial factor price elasticities, with quarterly time-series taken from the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample (1958 to 1975). Own elasticities are generally small and negative but vary considerably across industries. Cross elasticities show complementarity among most groups, except for younger and older females, who are subtitutes.     

Policy reform and labour demand in branches of Sri Lankan manufacturing industry

Many policy reforms in developing countries aim to remove factor market distortions. Whether such reforms reduce unemployment depends partly on the substitution possibilities between labour and other factors of production. This paper examines labour demand in seven branches of Sri Lankan manufacturing industry, using data on 4-digit industrial categories over the 1990 to 1997 period. The Box–Cox transformation is used to allow for flexible, and data-dependent, elasticities. The elasticity of capital–labour substitution varies widely across the branches of industry and is usually variable rather than constant. The average, long-run own-wage elasticity of labour demand for the manufacturing sector is estimated as ?0.80, so factor price policy should have an important effect on labour demand in this setting.     

Winners and losers: a micro-level analysis of international outsourcing and wages

Abstract.  Our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry-level information on industries' outsourcing activities from input-output tables. This approach avoids problems such as aggregation bias, potential endogeneity bias, and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry-level studies. We find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages. Applying two alternative skill classifications, we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1.5%, while it increased wages for high-skilled workers by up to 2.6%. This result is robust to a number of different specifications.     

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING ON LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN GERMANY

Using an administrative data set containing daily information on individual workers' employment histories, we investigate how workers' labour market transitions are affected by international outsourcing. In order to do so, we estimate hazard rate models for match separations, as well as for worker flows from employment to another job, to unemployment, and to nonparticipation. Outsourcing has a positive but small impact on overall job stability in the manufacturing sector, and considerably increases job stability in the service sector. However, the effect of outsourcing varies strongly across skill levels and age groups, with negative effects for some workers. This is especially the case in the manufacturing sector, where the hazard of transiting to nonemployment rises with international outsourcing for medium‐skilled and older workers.     

Intertemporal production and intertemporal substitution in output supply and input demand

This article presents an intertemporal model of production with multiple inputs to investigate substitution opportunities facing firms over time. The firm’s intertemporal profit maximization problem is characterized with the familiar cost function, and various intertemporal substitution elasticities are delineated for output supply and input demand. The absence of intertemporal substitution in production can imply production smoothing, and allowance for intertemporal substitution in labour demand reinforces the prediction of the real business cycle model. For aggregate US manufacturing, we find substantial substitution in output supply and labour demand over time due to intertemporal changes in output price and wage rates.     

Outsourcing, Imports and Labour Demand

This paper examines the effects of purchased services and imported intermediate materials on the labour demand for different skills in German manufacturing sectors. We derive and estimate a factor demand system based on the generalised Box–Cox cost function nesting both the normalised quadratic and the translog functional form. We find that the impacts of output and capital growth are more important in explaining the demand for heterogeneous labour than substitution effects between labour and non–labour inputs. Similarly, the increasing use of both imported materials and purchased services is a consequence of output growth rather than input substitution.
JEL classification : J 23; O 33     

THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN TAIWAN: DOMESTIC VERSUS IMPORTED CIGARETTES

This paper uses annual time series data from Taiwan to empirically estimate the demand for cigarettes, in consideration of the import liberation of foreign cigarettes and of antismoking campaigns. The results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are -0.6 and-1.1, respectively. The cross-price elasticities are 0.08 for domestic and 2.78 for imported cigarettes. The spread of cigarette health information has had a significantly negative effect on cigarette consumption. In addition, this study offers mild support to the argument that opening the market to imported cigarettes has resulted in significant increases in overall cigarette consumption. (JEL D12, 118)     

The CES‐‐Translog Production Function, Returns to Scale and AES

The translog functional form imposes no a priori restrictions on the substitution possibilities between the factor inputs, by relaxing the assumption of strong separability, and the CES–translog cost function specification allows for testing homothetic technology with Hicks‐neutral technical change. In this paper an n ‐factor CES–translog production function is presented which develops the parameters to directly assess scale effects from those due to technology in the production structure. In addition, by applying Shephard's lemma it was possible to derive the input demand functions, as well as the partial elasticities of substitution and the cross‐partial price elasticities of demand for a generalized CES–translog production structure.     

Could immigration explain wage inequality in a skill-biased technological model?

The aim of this paper is to evaluate how immigration of high-skilled workers affects the technological-knowledge bias and, in turn, the skill premium in the host countries, in particular bearing in mind the recent experience in a number of European countries. We study a skill-biased dynamic general equilibrium R&D growth model in which the standard R&D technology is modified so wage inequality results from the direction of the technological knowledge, which in turn is induced by the price channel. By solving the transitional dynamics numerically, we show that the rise of the skill premium arises from the price-channel effect, complemented with a mechanism that reflects the impact of immigration on R&D. According to our quantitative results, our model is able to account for a significant proportion of the dynamics of the skill premium in the data for a number of European countries, thus, suggesting that differences in labour skills between immigrants and natives are, in practice, an important source of skill premium variation over time.     

Patterns of Skill Premia

This paper develops a model to analyse how skill premia differ over time and across countries, and uses this model to study the impact of international trade on wage inequality. Skill premia are determined by technology, the relative supply of skills, and trade. Technology is itself endogenous, and responds to profit incentives. An increase in the relative supply of skills, holding technology constant, reduces the skill premium. But an increase in the supply of skills over time also induces a change in technology, increasing the demand for skills. The most important result of the paper is that increased international trade induces skill-biased technical change. As a result, trade opening can cause a rise in inequality both in the U.S. and the less developed countries, and thanks to the induced skill-biased technical change, this can happen without a rise in the relative prices of skill-intensive goods in the U.S., which is the usual intervening mechanism in the standard trade models.     

Adjustment costs and threshold effects in factor demand relationships

It has been recently argued that producers may not respond to every input price change in the way that a linear factor demand model would predict. This lumpy response is due to adjustment costs that are inherent in the act of adjusting the mix of inputs applied in the underlying production technologies. This study aims to provide a solid conceptual framework for these nonlinearities in factor demand relationships. Industry-specific implications of convex and non-convex adjustment costs for the linearity of the factor demand relationships as well as price and substitution elasticities are explored. A two-regime threshold system of factor demand equations is estimated for several manufacturing industries in the United States. Empirical results suggest significant threshold effects in the factor demand relationships in most nondurable goods sectors. The size and the nature of thresholds depend upon industry characteristics, including input composition and (non)convexity of underlying adjustment costs. Complete matrices of price and substitution elasticities for each industry are derived using estimates of threshold factor demand systems. Discussion of two contrasting cases in greater detail sheds light on how the effect of price shocks on factor demand relationships varies across industries with different adjustment cost structures.     

Global restrictions on the parameters of the CDES indirect utility function

This paper extends the analytical and empirical application of the basic indirect utility function of Houthakker–Hanoch—called the CDES specification (constant differences of elasticities of substitution). The non-homothetic CDES preferences are the natural parametric extension on the global domain of the homothetic CES preferences with many commodities, and CDES can conveniently be used in specifying CGE multisector models with a demand side satisfying observable Engel curve patterns. Moreover, all Marshallian own-price elasticities are no longer restricted to exceed one, and positive and negative cross-price effects are allowed for in empirical demand analyses. Explicit calculations of the Allen elasticities of substitution are instrumental in demonstrating the economic implications of the parameters of indirect utility functions with global regularity properties and flexibility of the derived demand systems.     

Equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing and wage solidarity under labour market imperfections

We evaluate the effects of outsourcing and wage solidarity on wage formation and equilibrium unemployment in a heterogeneous labour market, where wages are determined by a monopoly labour union. We find that outsourcing promotes the wage dispersion between the high- and low-skilled workers. When the labour union adopts a solidaristic wage policy, it will dampen this tendency. Further, higher outsourcing will increase equilibrium unemployment among the high-skilled workers, whereas it will reduce it among the low-skilled workers. Overall, outsourcing will reduce economy-wide equilibrium unemployment under the reasonable condition that the proportion of high-skilled workers is sufficiently low.     

The Italian Automotive Industry and Economies of Scale

This article investigates scale economies in the Italian automobile industry as well as substitution possibilities between inputs and direct and cross-price elasticities of factor demand, utilizing a cost function with capital, labor, domestic, and imported intermediate goods inputs. Continuing European integration makes economies of scale an important issue. The study results are consistent with economies of scale in the Italian motor vehicle industry, a particularly interesting finding because the Italian automotive industry consists primarily of one firm, Fiat. The estimated direct price elasticities suggest that capital is most responsive to own price changes, and estimated cross elasticities imply that all inputs are substitutes. (JEL D 2, L 6, O 1)