建立商业银行系统空间意志模型研究银行竞争力

本文从系统的角度研究商业银行系统及其竞争力,建立了“商业银行系统空间意志模型”,并利用这一理论模型描述国内理想的和现实的商业银行系统空间状态,解释目前中国商业银行系统中的一些经济现象。主要结论是:商业银行要想实现可持续发展必须关注商业银行系统内独立主体子系统意志的相对状态。     

金融包容的逻辑起点及体系构建——兼论新背景下金融包容的推进与应用

鉴于国内对金融排斥、普惠金融、金融包容的研究还存在诸多分歧,地理学者和金融学者对其可达性及使用性维度仍有不同理解,从学术溯源的角度,通过梳理金融包容的历史沿革和内涵演化,界定不同理念之间的区别与联系,并结合最新的数字金融、虚拟集聚背景,提出“三度”“三维”“三协调”为一体的金融包容体系。从复杂系统论的角度,创新性地将其分为金融包容的协调体系、风险管理体系、创新体系、组织体系及传导体系,并探索了主流金融范畴的扩展、格莱珉模式的思考以及传递渠道的创新等,剖析了新的研究范式的不足,为未来理论研究和实践推进提供路径及展望。     

论美国影子银行体系的发展、运作、影响及监管

第二次世界大战结束特别是20世纪70年代以来,由货币政策目标与金融监管框架之间的不一致性所引发的金融创新以及机构投资者对安全性资产的超额需求共同推动了影子银行体系在美国迅速发展。美国的影子银行体系主要由政府支持的影子银行体系、"内部"影子银行体系以及"外部"影子银行体系组成,但其各自的信贷中介程序和复杂程度不尽相同。影子银行体系的迅速发展对美国以及全球金融体系都产生了重要而复杂的影响。尽管《多德—弗兰克法》为美国乃至全球金融监管改革指明了方向,但旨在有效规范影子银行体系发展的金融监管体制改革之路依然漫长。     

3. The non-renewable resources sub-system

Natural resource exhaustion combined with increasing extraction costs are a major assumption in the World 3 model and play an important role in many of the collapse modes. This sub-system is described and the strengths and weaknesses of its assumptions are assessed in the light of a more optimistic attitude towards technological improvement and the effects of economic and social pressures.     

4. The population sub-system

The overall behaviour of the World 3 model is not highly sensitive to the behaviour of the population sub-system. This is divided into two parts, fertility and mortality, and each are examined here as being important in their own right, although the fact that many of the relationships could be subject to policy decisions is noted as a major problem in building the model.     

人力资源会计对象的缺陷分析

本文以会计对象为分析的基本元素,将人力资源会计按会计对象分为三个子系统：人力资源成本会计、人力资源资产会计、人力资源权益会计,在此基础上对人力资源会计的缺陷进行了分析,为人力资源会计的改进和发展奠定了基础。     

Scheduling Shipbuilding Using a Constraint Directed Graph Search: DAS-ERECT

To build a scheduling system for shipbuilding, we have adopted a hierarchical architecture and developed a constraint directed graph search technique for erection scheduling at the dock. First, in the hierarchical architecture, detailed schedules for the lower-level assembly plants are delegated to the individual plant's schedulers as long as the requirements from the higher-level scheduler are satisfied. However, if lower-level scheduling is impossible, the higher-level scheduler attempts to adjust the original requirements. Second, in the constraint directed graph search, the concepts of graph expansion and constraint directed pruning are amalgamated into an algorithm. The approaches are implemented in the DAS-ERECT system which is a sub-system of the DAS project undertaken for the Daewoo Shipbuilding Company.     

5. The agricultural sub-system

The assumptions about the physical limits of the critical variables in the agricultural sub-system of World 3 are pessimistic. By making more optimistic but, on the basis of available information, equally plausible assumptions about them, any physical limits to agricultural production recede beyond the time horizon of the model. The major problems of feeding the less developed world are seen to lie in political rather than in physical limits.     

6. The capital and industrial output sub-system

The World 3 model has an acknowledged sensitivity to the capital sector. It predicts catastrophe. But the great weakness of the capital sub-system is that it assumes inflexible relationships and constants throughout which make overshoot and collapse typical modes of behaviour of the model. It excludes the possibility of adaptive flexible response to changing circumstances—one of the main characteristics of real world behaviour of the economy.     

Do Japanese CEOs matter?

In a country where individualism is emphasized less than in Western countries, we ask whether the CEO (shacho) of a Japanese corporation positively affects firm performance. To answer this question, we construct a shacho-firm matched panel data set in the period 1990 through 2002 of all listed 1419 Japanese manufacturing firms and their 3520 shachos. Though we find a positive abnormal stock return on the date a shacho change is announced, especially when the shacho change is non-routine, we document that this effect is short-lived. There seems to be no long-run positive change in performance or policies after a shacho change, even when the shacho change is non-routine. Finally, in trying to explain firm performance or policies, we attempt to separate a firm-fixed effect from a shacho-fixed effect, and are unable to disentangle a shacho-fixed effect. We are thus left to conclude that shachos do not positively matter in the Japanese corporation in this decade of a stagnant economy.     

The effects of nonfinancial and financial measures on employee motivation to participate in target setting

Recent interest in nonfinancial performance measures has raised questions on how such measures influence employee reactions and behaviour. Surprisingly, the question of whether and how nonfinancial measures motivate employees to participate in target setting has remained largely unexplored. Employees can be motivated intrinsically or extrinsically to participate in target setting. Intrinsic motivation to participate in target setting initiates from within the employee and is perceived as an end in itself with the employee as the main beneficiary. In contrast, controlled extrinsic motivation to participate in target setting is controlled by the organization and is perceived as a means to an end with the organization as the main beneficiary. This study investigates the relative importance of nonfinancial measures vis-à-vis financial measures in engendering employee intrinsic and controlled extrinsic motivation to participate and how these two forms of motivation to participate in target setting translate into improved employee job performance. Based on a sample of 149 employees, the Partial Least Squares results indicate that both financial measures and nonfinancial measures are associated with employee intrinsic motivation to participate in target setting. However, only nonfinancial measures are associated with controlled extrinsic motivation to participate in target setting and because this form of motivation to participate is controlled by the organization as a means to achieve better performance, it is only this form of motivation which has a significant impact on employee job performance. These results provide important insights into the intricacies by which performance measures influence employee motivation to participate in target setting and job performance.     

Liquidity risk and stock returns around the world

The recent global financial crisis demonstrates that market liquidity is a prominent systematic risk globally. We find that local liquidity risk, in addition to the local market, value and size factors, demands a systematic premium across stocks in 11 developed markets. This local pricing premium is smaller in countries where the country-level corporate boards are more effective and where there are less insider trading activities. We also discover that global liquidity risk is a significant pricing factor across all developed country market portfolios after controlling for global market, value, and size factors. The contribution of this risk to the return on a country market portfolio is economically and statistically significant within and across regions.     

Who issues Sukuk and when?: An analysis of the determinants of Islamic bond issuance

Using security issuer data from Malaysia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates from the 2001–2013 period, this study investigates how Islamic bond (Sukuk) issuers differ from conventional debt and equity issuers. An international comparative analysis of these three types of security issuers yields three key insights. First, accessibility to the Sukuk market is essential in choosing Sukuk issuance; other determinants will not promote the use of Sukuk, unless this requirement is first satisfied. Second, the low degree of financial constraints on a firm promotes Sukuk issuance, once the required condition of issuer accessibility to the Sukuk market is satisfied. Third, undervaluation of a firm in the pre-issuance period also encourages Sukuk issuance, once the issuer's Sukuk market accessibility condition is satisfied. Taken together, we conclude that Sukuk issuance is preferred along with market timing, once the pecking-order conditions of market accessibility are satisfied.     

Decoupling the distressed banks and their clients,and coupling the distressed firms and their lending banks

This paper simultaneously investigates the responses of stock prices of the related banks and the client firms when one of them is in distress. Two effects are examined. The distressed bank effect, which claims that the stock price of client firms are coupled to that of their related distress banks, and the distressed firm effect, which claims that the related banks are negatively affected when their client firms are in distress. We collect the detailed information of individual transaction loan data to find the relationship between banks and their client firms. Asymmetric responses are reported in this paper. Our results reject the distressed bank effect but, by contrast, cannot reject the distressed firm effect. We propose the fund diversification hypothesis and the leverage hypothesis, and argue the decoupling effect of the distressed bank and their listed firms, owing to the diversified choice of clients' financing channel.     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.     

The relationship between size,book-to-market equity ratio,earnings–price ratio,and return for the Hong Kong stock market

In this paper, we investigate the relation between stock returns and β, size (ME), leverage, book-to-market equity ratio, and earnings–price ratio (E/P) in Hong Kong stock market using the Fama and French (FF) [J. Finance 47 (1992) 427] approach. FF find that two variables, size and book-to-market equity, combine to capture the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns associated with β, size, leverage, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios. In this paper, similar to previous studies in Hong Kong and US stock markets, we find that β is unable to explain the average monthly returns on stocks continuously listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the period July 1984–June 1997. But three of the variables, size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios, seem able to capture the cross-sectional variation in average monthly returns over the period. The other two variables, book leverage and market, are also able to capture the cross-sectional variation in average monthly returns. But their effects seem to be dominated by size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios, and considered to be redundant in explaining average returns when size, book-to-market equity, and E/P ratios are also considered. The results are consistent across subperiods, across months, and across size groups. These suggest that the results are not driven by extreme observations or abnormal return behavior in some of the months or by size groups.     

Erklärung der privaten Krankenversicherungsnachfrage anhand ökonomischer und psychologischer Einflussfaktoren

To be able to plan measures insales planning successfully, informations are necessary about the expected trend of demand in the future. In this respecttheoretical funded andempirical relevant correlations between exogenous influencing factors and the process of demand must be systematically explored. Consequently for the private health insurance aglobal model was developed, which is the basis for presenting exemplarily an approach of explanation for the health cost insurance. Via this approach theshort-term fluctuations in the trend of demand, which were noticed in the past, can be traced satisfactorily. In this context besideseconomical alsopsychological influences like attitudes and expectations must be explicitly integrated in the approach of explanation. Naturally also the effects ofsociopolitical events, which are relevant to demand, were included in the analysis, especially as the process of demand for private health insurance is substantially marked by sociopolitical legislation.     

GARCH in question … and as a benchmark

GARCH models of volatility are ubiquitous. Over the past twelve years, the GARCH industry has produced an almost infinite number of volatility time series from an extremely wide range of return series. The main purpose of this paper is to revisit the notion of volatility. Although we stop just short of questioning the necessity (and certainly the success) of GARCH, we demonstrate that for at least one type of data—long term interest rates—it is possible to essentially reproduce GARCH volatility time series with simple moving averages of deviations from mean return. We also demonstrate (empirically) a functional relationship between GARCH(1,1) parameters and the optimal moving average window width. At the present time these results are based on the utilisation of GARCH volatility as a benchmark against which we select the optimal number of terms in the simple moving average representation. One possible avenue of research that might lead to the removal of this requirement is suggested. An interesting applied result that emerged from our analysis is this: from 1952 to the present, USA interest rate volatility has the highest overall cross-correlation with the interest rate volatilities of other countries.     

Visual rhetoric and the case of intellectual capital

Visual images abound in accounting-related media and are powerful tools for communicating messages regarding all aspects of organisations. This is particularly important in the case of intellectual capital, where a deficient accounting framework for intangibles leads stakeholders to seek enlightenment beyond the financial statements. The central contribution of the work presented here is the development of theory to guide the interpretation of visual rhetoric in pictures and photographs. Within an over-arching framework of Barthesian visual semiotics, a model of visual rhetoric and repetition is developed by reference to the work of Durand and others. Four types of visual repetition are identified: identity, similarity, accumulation and series. In the light of this model, illustrative examples of visual images from annual reports are analysed to indicate how visual rhetoric contributes to the communication of intellectual capital.