2. The structure of the world models

The world models of World Dynamics and The Limits of Growth and the claims of their respective authors are described. In examining the overall structure of the models, the method of calculation and the data base, features are noted which could cause the results to be in error and might cast doubt on the conclusions that have been drawn from them.     

An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads

This study conducts an empirical comparison of how well alternative models of credit spreads explain CDS prices on 145 companies over the 2008–2019 interval. The results indicate that credit spreads are most closely related to theories which incorporate the likelihood of income insolvency into measures of the risk of jumps to default, with over half of individual CDS prices being explained, both during the financial crisis and thereafter. Out-of-sample tests using the same parameters estimated in-sample for all companies across time indicate that models which integrate the probability of income, cash, and valuation insolvency explain over 70% of spreads.     

Performance evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models: An orientation-free super-efficiency DEA-based framework

Prediction of corporate failure is one of the major activities in auditing firms risks and uncertainties. The design of reliable models to predict bankruptcy is crucial for many decision making processes. Although a large number of models have been designed to predict bankruptcy, the relative performance evaluation of competing prediction models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature, which often leads to reporting conflicting results. In this research, we overcome this methodological issue by proposing an orientation-free super-efficiency data envelopment analysis model as a multi-criteria assessment framework. Furthermore, we perform an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular bankruptcy modeling frameworks for UK data including our own models. In addition, we address two important research questions; namely, do some modeling frameworks perform better than others by design? and to what extent the choice and/or the design of explanatory variables and their nature affect the performance of modeling frameworks?, and report on our findings.     

Images into models: The subjective world of the policy maker

The approach discussed here allows the user to explore a future that is grounded in his or her own beliefs and values. In particular, attention is paid to qualitative and subjective elements of images of the future, which make up an important part of the politics in policy making.     

Organising the human world: An evolutionary outlook

Based on a concept that the evolution of man and mankind moves in successive phases, each characterised by a certain organisation determined by its scope, this study examines the relationship between external and internal evolutionary factors. It describes the basic evolutionary mechanism of human systems which alternates between stability and mutation, and is similar to that of non-equilibrium physical systems. In the human system this mutation means fluctuations towards a higher, more complex level, and—because of the designing capacity of man—increasingly conscious management of dynamic regimes. This has so far happened at the levels of ecological and social organisation. Now, with fluctuations passing to the level of cultural organisation, we can attempt to design new codes of social ethics, new social institutions, or new social systems.     

The evaluation of generic cross-impact models

The first cross-impact models were developed ten years ago. Since then, many versions of this technique have been developed. This article proposes criteria for evaluating generic cross-impact models and demonstrates the use of these criteria. It distinguishes carefully between generic cross-impact models and application models. Generic models consist of mathematical definitions and computational procedures; application models consist of a generic model plus appropriately expressed data relevant to the topic being analysed. Four criteria are proposed for evaluating generic cross-impact models: internal consistency, robustness, generality, and clarity.     

An interactive decision stratum for the multilevel world model

A world model being developed by the authors for the Club of Rome is described. It is based on an interaction between man—the decision maker or the policy analyst-and the computer. Such a symbiosis avoids the pitfalls of relying solely on the computer for policy analysis, which by necessity leads to a mechanistic view of the situation; it provides also means for a creative use of computer techniques for extending the logical capability of man in long-term planning and analysis while leaving the ultimate responsibility for prediction, planning and decision making in his hands. The model is multilevel and hierarchical, with the world represented not as an aggregate, but as a number of regions with countries grouped according to economic similarity.     

Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models

In this article we provide econometric tools for the evaluationof intertemporal asset pricing models using specification-errorand volatility bounds. We formulate analog estimators of thesebounds, give conditions for consistency, and derive the limitingdistribution of these estimators. The analysis incorporatesmarket frictions such as short-sale constraints and proportionaltransactions costs. Among several applications we show how touse the methods to assess specific asset pricing models andto provide non-parametric characterizations of asset pricinganomalies.     

An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates

This paper evaluates the multiperiod forecasts of Moody's Aaa corporate and the 10-year Treasury bond rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We show that the SPF forecasts are not rational since they fail to be unbiased and, in some cases, do not fully incorporate the information in the past actual rates. These forecasts, however, are useful, since they are able to accurately predict the direction of change in the actual series. We also formulate a model that utilizes the information in the SPF forecasts of the unemployment rate. Comparable four-quarter-ahead forecasts of the two interest rates from this model are shown to be significantly more accurate than the corresponding SPF forecasts for 2001.1-2004.4.     

An evaluation of SFAS No. 130 comprehensive income disclosures

In this study, we provide evidence on the pricing of other comprehensive income (OCI) that differs from most evidence in prior research. Prior archival research has largely concluded that OCI is not priced by investors. In contrast, we provide evidence in the post-SFAS 130 period that OCI is priced on a dollar-for-dollar basis as is predicted by economic theory for transitory income items. We attribute this finding to our use of post-SFAS 130 as-reported measures of OCI rather than pre-SFAS 130 as-if estimates of OCI measures. Furthermore, we document that two components of OCI, foreign currency translation adjustment and unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale securities, are priced by investors. In the post-SFAS 130 period, we also find that the type of financial statement in which firms report OCI and its components affects pricing, consistent with the conclusions of prior experimental research. However, our evidence suggests that investors pay greater attention to OCI information reported in the statement of changes in equity, rather than in a statement of financial performance. This could be attributed to investors becoming more familiar in the post-SFAS 130 period with the predominant reporting of OCI and its components in the statement of changes in equity. These findings may be relevant to both the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the International Accounting Standards Board, which jointly are undertaking a new project that, in part, is addressing financial statement presentation of OCI items.

An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis

Recently, several behavioral finance models based on the overconfidence hypothesis have been proposed to explain anomalous findings, including a short-term continuation (momentum) and a long-term reversal in stock returns. We characterize the overconfidence hypothesis by the following four testable implications: First, if investors are overconfident, they overreact to private information and underreact to public information. Second, market gains make overconfident investors trade more aggressively in subsequent periods. Third, excessive trading of overconfident investors in securities markets contributes to the observed excessive volatility. Fourth, overconfident investors underestimate risk and trade more in riskier securities. To document the presence of overconfidence in financial markets, we empirically evaluate these four hypotheses using aggregate data. Overall, we find empirical evidence in support of the four hypotheses.     

Problems of world food and agriculture: Projections,models and possible approaches

This article is concerned with the global implications of recent work in food and nutrition planning. It is based on the realisation that the world food situation is critical. Two distinct explanatory/ action paradigms that have been adopted by food/nutrition planners and other professional writers are identified and discussed. These approaches are then assessed in the light of forecasting techniques used to explore the future world food situation and more appropriate techniques are proposed.     

An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

An evaluation of contingent immunization

This paper tests the effectiveness of contingent immunization, a stop loss strategy that allows portfolio managers to take advantage of their ability to forecast interest rate movements as long as their forecasts are successful, but switches to a pure immunization strategy should the stop loss limit be encountered. This study uses actual daily transactions in the Spanish Treasury market covering the period 1993–2003 and uses performance measures that accounts for skewness and kurtosis as well as mean variance. The main result of this paper is that contingent immunization provides excellent performance despite its simplicity.     

Pricing mortgages: An interpretation of the models and results

Mortgages, like all debt securities, can be viewed as risk-free assets plus or minus contingent claims that can be usefully viewed as options. The most important options are: prepayment, which is a call option giving the borrower the right to buy back the mortgage at par; and default, which is a put option giving the borrower the right to sell the house in exchange for the mortgage. This article reviews and interprets the large and growing body of literature that applies recent results of option pricing models to mortgages. We also provide a critique of the models and suggest directions for future research.The Ohio State University and the National Bureau of Economic ResearchThe Urban Institute University of California at Los Angeles     

An empirical analysis of multivariate copula models

Since the pioneering work of Embrechts and co-authors in 1999, copula models have enjoyed steadily increasing popularity in finance. Whereas copulas are well studied in the bivariate case, the higher-dimensional case still offers several open issues and it is far from clear how to construct copulas which sufficiently capture the characteristics of financial returns. For this reason, elliptical copulas (i.e. Gaussian and Student-t copula) still dominate both empirical and practical applications. On the other hand, several attractive construction schemes have appeared in the recent literature promising flexible but still manageable dependence models. The aim of this work is to empirically investigate whether these models are really capable of outperforming its benchmark, i.e. the Student-t copula and, in addition, to compare the fit of these different copula classes among themselves.